How Labor lost Middle Australia

Cross-posted from Patreon:

I’m sure like most of you – you are scratching your head to explain what happened last night, and how Bill Shorten lost the Federal Election (when only months ago most people thought he would romp it home in a landslide).

Read on and enjoy my thoughts:

1. Climate Change isn’t the #1 issue

Contrary to what the main stream media were feeding the population – climate change isn’t the number one issue facing Australians. Unfortunately those people in the ‘politics industry’ live in a bubble where they somehow think if they are talking about it – people around the country must be talking about it too. To me – the number one issue in Australia is our rampant population growth, leading to anemic wages growth, and significant rises to the cost of living (in particular housing and energy).

What the Labor Party was essentially asking people to do was to ‘pay more tax’ whilst also accepting ‘more people’ (through it’s Big Australia @ 50 million policy). The prospect that outside of some inner urban seats people would vote to either lose more jobs or pay more tax (through the introduction of climate change measures) without any guarantee of higher incomes is the problem.

Yes – Climate change is happening, but Australia is not a big polluter, nor do we have the economic clout to show leadership on this issue (given our budget situation and record low wages growth). To put it simply – Labor’s constant bleating about climate change fell on deaf ears across most of Middle Australia

2. Policy agenda was too complex and too aggressive

Labor tried to do too much at once. Having such a broad policy agenda set them up for criticism on too many fronts – and didn’t give them enough oxygen in the media narrative to sell the case for change. The whole Franking Credits policy is a classic example of this – where Labor set themselves up to have a fight with baby boomers, the very people they needed to convince to vote Labor in order to secure governments. Had they focused on other policy initiatives (in particular around jobs and wages growth) – and parked the fight on Franking Credits until their second year in government – it would have been much smarter political strategy.

At the risk of being rude – Australian’s do not like complex policy. Most people in middle Australia do not have the IQ to understand it in detail anyway. Middle Australia responds to three word slogans – Tony Abbott proved this. Campaigning by the Liberal Party on Retiree Tax, Death Tax, Housing Tax and keeping it simple for the lower IQ’s in middle Australia is part of reason Labor lost the election.

3. Right policies (in some cases) but wrong time.

Some of the policies that Labor took to the election (especially around negative gearing and franking credits) were the right policy to help bring the budget back to balance – but they were executed at the wrong time. Why on earth would any political party want to change negative gearing rules at a time where property prices are already 10%+ down in our capital cities? Everyone knows that removing negative gearing is going to put downward pressure on house prices, and trying to introduce this change at a time the property market is already suffering is madness.

A person’s house is generally their biggest asset – no one wants to see a reduction in its value (especially the 65% of people in Australia that either own a house outright or are paying it off). Don’t get me wrong, we do have to change our negative gearing policies – but it should be introduced at a time where the housing market is going up 10%+ per annum (like it was between 2010-2016) so people didn’t feel as big of a threat to the impact on their own personal wealth. Like the above with franking credits – I would have parked this initiative for a year or two until such a time the property market had bounced back into positive territory.

If Labor ran it’s election campaign on the simple slogan “we will grow your wages”and parked some of its bigger agenda items until we were in better economic times – it would have likely secured government.

4. Bill Shorten was the wrong leader. 

I’ve said this for months to anyone who cares to listen – Bill Shorten is a drab speaker with the personality of a wet rag. I have no doubt he is an intellectual man and also a great party man – but he doesn’t connect with Australian people. His speeches are often scripted, and this was no truer then when he spoke after the passing of Bob Hawke. You would think in a moment like that – Bill Shorten could say a few words to the media off the cuff – but instead he still read from a prepared script. During the live debates on TV with Scott Morrison – he was holding onto paper notes and reading scripts – whereas Morrison was speaking unscripted and often in simpler tones that more easily resonate with middle Australia.

To put it simply – if you walked into most pubs in Australia and asked the drinks “if you had to choose to have a beer with Bill Shorten or Scott Morrison – which one would you choose?” – I suspect a majority would choose to have a beer with Morrison.

The Preferred PM opinion polls for Shorten were always shocking. No one has ever become Prime Minister with a preferred PM approval rate of less than 30% during an election campaign while in opposition. It’s important to remember that Kim Beazley lost elections whilst being a preferred PM over John Howard. Labor tragics kept telling me for weeks “Oh, it doesn’t matter who the leader is – people vote for policy” – which of course is a load of bullshit. The number one rule of business is “people buy off people”, and the number one rule of politics is “people vote for people”.

Shorten was on the nose during the Gillard & Rudd years (being the man behind knifing two sitting Prime Ministers), and he should have been disposed of after losing the last election to Malcolm Turnbull. The fact that Labor powerbrokers seemed to think that Bill Shorten was the best person to lead the party is a complete insult to some of the other talented people within the Labor movement.

5. Labor has only ever won government when it’s done well in Queensland. 

The reason that Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister was because he resonated with Queenslanders (whilst also doing well around other parts of the country). No Labor Government has ever won parliament without winning a swathe of seats in Queensland. This was never going to happen this time, with One Nation and United Australia Party picking up significant chunks of the primary vote in Queensland (and the likely preference flows to LNP candidates).

Queenslanders are an interesting bunch – and you don’t need to look much past Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson to understand that people up north love someone who isn’t afraid to speak their mind, and speak off script. Bill Shorten weak drab crafted messages simply don’t resonate with Queenslanders. Also Labor’s policies were crafted as anti-Queensland.

In large parts of regional Queensland, mining plays a key role in the prosperity of families. Introduce a carbon price, and stop the Adani project, whilst at the same time more heavily taxing families that earn good money from mining – is a recipe for disaster. We only had to have a look at the worker from the Gladstone Port who was sacked because he challenged Shorten on this very issue. It was another case of Shorten losing focus on middle Australia – particularly in the regions.

6. People can’t see the difference between The Greens and Labor

Let’s face it – the Greens and Labor are basically a coalition now. Their policies are the same in many cases – in particular around social causes (such as ‘safe schools’ and ‘transgender rights’). Many voters in middle-Australia have watched Labor lurch further and further to the left in recent years. Middle Australia doesn’t care for transgender rights, or more LGBTQI acceptance.

They care for jobs, and they care for more money in their pockets. There are swathes of ex-Labor voters in outer-suburbia and the regional areas that voted for Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson because they feel abandoned by Labor’s shift the left to secure Green preferences. Labor’s challenge in the next three years is to secure its own identity again.

7. Labor are no longer the workers party

As mentioned above – Labor is supposed to be the workers party. We are experiencing record low wages growth – so where the hell is Labors wages strategy? They had bold policy on negative gearing and franking credits – but no bold policy on how to increase wages!

Where is the plan like “we will increase public sector wages by 10% per annum for the next 5 years (50% in total) to help kick start wages growth across the private sector”? 

That’s right – nowhere. 

Labor has abandoned it’s position as the workers party for middle Australia, and instead panders to social and globalist causes instead. Labor would not have lost this election if they had a bold strategy about delivering strong wages growth (and left the other policy initiatives on the shelf until later in their term of government).

8. State Election warning signs

Labor lost the South Australian election, and Labor also lost the New South Wales election. There have been some warning signs for a while that the Labor brand (outside of ‘inclusive Victoria’) is on the nose around the country.

With a shadow cabinet comprising of Labor leaders all from inner-urban seats in Melbourne and Sydney – it’s pretty easy to see how they got out of touch with what middle-Australia wanted. They didn’t heed the state election warnings!

9. New Australians generally vote for conservative parties. 

Finally – and the most important thing to consider is the changing demographics of Australia. Chinese people have conservative values. Middle Eastern people have conservative values. To put it simply – the large majority of new Australian’s coming to Australia (Chinese, Indian, Middle Eastern) do not care about climate change and gay rights. They also hate paying tax (how many of their businesses are cash only!).

New Australia is changing, and it’s changing for the more conservative. The people who are drawn to this country are largely here to pay as little tax as they can, and milk as much as they can from government at the same time. They generally hate gays, and they don’t understand why climate change is an issue in Australia because they generally arrive from countries with much higher pollution levels! It used to be the case that migrants were much more likely to vote Labor (because they were the workers party), but these days migrants are much more likely to vote Liberal.

I’ve said this for a long time – but I’m increasingly of the belief that we have reached ‘peak equality’ in Australia – given we increasingly import more and more people from countries with conservative societies.

So in summary Labor had the following.

The wrong leader, with the wrong policies, at the wrong time. 

Comments

  1. didrakebMEMBER

    There is another reason, there is a percentage of people who love to hear our PM say things like “God Bless Australia” (Scomo) and not things like “Is there a Hell?” (Shorten). So there are many bible bashers who are very happy today…

    • I hope this becomes a thing. I’d like to read the thoughts of Skip in long form on the same topic.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      I think it’s Raglan Parade. He posted the content and the link over the weekend.

    • Not I. But this is terrific food for thought. In many parts I’m thinking “I wish I wrote that”.

      I’m so glad that the author has delved into the horrid checkmate of ALP politics. The problem is that given the ALP elite have weaponised identity politics and harpy moralising no one is allowed to speak of such things. Someone this honest soon has their character attacked and they are driven from the ALP as a ‘racist, sexist, bigot, transphobe…etc etc’ when they are actually providing a service by showing how the Emperor’s ideological clothes are transparent.

      This is the discussion the ALP needs, but has refused to have in case it upsets the precious ideology of a few who have used far left blackmailing tactics and victimhood.

      Who cares about the ALPs great unwashed perhaps? All those rough blokes who tell sexist jokes and worry about traditional labour issues in QLD and WA? Well, not the boutique ideologists who don’t care about being in opposition.

      One of the reasons why the polls are so inaccurate is that we have reached a time where people don’t tell the truth any more when asked simple questions about their belief. Why would they? They will get punished by the media goon squad and a few snide remarks from identity politics HQ at the ALP.

      The ALP elites and even the ACTU leadership has laid the PC plaster on with a trowel; no one is going to have a chat to Sally McManus or Penny Wong about the cost of their ideological hobby horse in dragging the ALP from its roots and directing it away from the core ALP values.

  2. With a shadow cabinet comprising of Labor leaders all from inner-urban seats in Melbourne and Sydney – it’s pretty easy to see how they got out of touch with what middle-Australia wanted.

    You’d be hard pressed to deny the truth of that. But they will of course, and double down on more of the same.

    I’m really looking forward to years of Penny Wong’s pompous droning about progressive values and social justice.

    • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

      New Australia is changing, and it’s changing for the more conservative. The people who are drawn to this country are largely here to pay as little tax as they can, and milk as much as they can from government at the same time. They generally hate gays, and they don’t understand why climate change is an issue in Australia because they generally arrive from countries with much higher pollution levels! It used to be the case that migrants were much more likely to vote Labor (because they were the workers party), but these days migrants are much more likely to vote Liberal.

      Well how about that – what a controversial view. Calling all of MB’s resident progressives. DrSmith, Denise, your attention is required here to refute these racist sterotypings.

      As I keep saying, the migrants of today are after a short cut to a better life. You can kiss your progressive, welfare society good bye – which is more the pity, as I will genuinely lament its passing, as no doubt I’m sure you will too, only difference is it is YOUR beliefs and determination to change who Australia is, that brought us here.

      What is that saying…. something about the road to Hell being paved with good intentions. You guys better get back to work, there’s lots more paving to be done.

      • @Stewie, yeh they see Australia as their own personal ATM, evident in the number of adverse decisions made against this ‘diverse’ demographic by Govt Departments and when the heat becomes too much to bear, they scurry off on the next flight home with their ill-gotten gains.

      • Almost 30 years ago I was having dinner with some Chinese medical intellectuals discussing AIDS. These were people educated in the west, but they were certain that there were no gays in China and this was a western cultural phenomena. At first I thought that they were joking, but no. The gap between what people want to believe in Australia and the actuality of China is massive.

        Ideological blindness has driven the ALP and the Fake Greens to believe that the Middle East, China and India is crammed with tolerant people who simply cannot be bigoted or racist – because they are Asian, brown skinned and therefore victims. However, it is far more likely that immigrants from highly traditional backgrounds will vote against the ALPs ‘diversity’ agenda, especially when it comes to ideological agendas in schools. What they might tell you face to face is quite another matter – for here is another cultural difference that cultural Stasi doesn’t want to talk about. It’s insane that so many people have convinced themselves of a reality that largely exists in their minds.

      • McPaddyMEMBER

        I’ll bite. That part stood out to me as by far the weakest part of the article, which otherwise seemed pretty sensible to me. The highlighted sentence is basically saying that migrants to Australia are at an individual level bad citizens and bad human beings. That’s a very strong claim. I would like to see the evidence. It stands out as pretty ridiculous and concerning, tbh, but happy to be shown the evidence in support beyond “everybody knows”. BTW I would say it could be applied quite well to local tradies from my own experience, but that’s another discussion.

      • Stewie,

        You really don’t read what’s written, I’ve said a million times I’m against the level of immigration that we have, I just don’t subscribe to your white supremacy crap. Plenty of whites (like you) are as bigoted as any immigrants we get and as long as the numbers are low they’ll morph / integrate just as the immigrants who came after the war did and who many said wouldn’t.

      • @McPaddy, the national VET regulator had 127 adverse decisions it made against the organisation’s it regulates on appeal at the AAT in the last qtr of 2018, 97% of those organisation’s were owned and managed by people from the sub-continent…what a coincidence.

      • @dennis supporting your own people against their demographic replacement and their dis-enfranchisement by the civic institutions they endorse does not make one a bigoted ‘white supremacist’.

      • McPaddyMEMBER

        Interesting, Jim. Do you have a link to that statistic? And what proportion of “people who are drawn to this country” is represented in that 97%, assuming it’s correct?

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        @jimsmith76 it doesn’t require much to be classified as a white supremacist nowadays:

        “White supremacy is characterized by perfectionism, a belief in meritocracy, and the Protestant work ethic,” the executive said, adding that whites who object when accused of deep-rooted bias are called “fragile” and “Defensive”

        https://nypost.com/2019/05/18/nyc-schools-chancellor-richard-carranza-has-made-whiteness-toxic-doe-insiders-claim/

        This is what happens when you allow in a large population group with different capabilities and then school them on how hard done by they are and why they are not thriving as they expect… its due to OUR cultural values, like diligence, perfectionism, a belief in meritocracy, the Protestant work ethic.

        Then after a while, after being told that the are just as bright and just as capable (as a population group) as white people (or asians) and being outraged that despite all effort they’re making they still can’t master those IQ entry exams they can start lobbying to have their SAT or HSC scores adjusted, so they can get into those swankly high profile courses:

        https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-16/american-except-ionalism-secret-adversity-score-bias-college-admissions-nationwide

        Then once they get into those courses and start failing because *racism* they can start lobbying to have our courses, decolonised and toxic elements of whiteness, like hard work, removed from the syllabus.

        Then for all those hard done by browns who still can’t succeed, despite being told they’re just as capable, they can do a Humanities course, blaming it all on “Whiteness” despite having moved to a white country in the first place:

        http://theconversation.com/why-i-teach-a-course-called-white-racism-90093

        Of course the main people and culture who suffer under this playbook are white people, but at least no brown people’s feelings are hurt by telling them the reality of where their median population groups IQ lies and how it explains nearly EVERYTHING about the differences in life outcomes as a population group.

        @McPaddy – following @Jim’s comment, refer to which electorates had the highest “No” vote on the recent marriage debate. There’s lots of evidence to suggest that the comment, although unpleasant for our progressive values, are reasonably accurate.

      • Jimsmith76,

        I think you’re confused, at no point have I had a shot at Stewie based on his opposition to high levels of immigration, in fact I support any anti-immigration comments based on the numbers, but not on racial supremacy crap. My objections to Stewie over immigration are based solely on his attitude about the immigrants themselves.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Dennis,

        for your benefit the only immigrant group that I have concerns about from an ethnicity point of view are Africans, due to the low median IQ of around 80. This is around 2 points below what the US will accept into their Army due to the fact that the effort required to supervise individuals with IQs below 82 exceeds the benefit that having them in the army provides.

        I believe that the vast majority of social issues in our society are a reflection of issues with IQ, and importing a large population of such people is likely to significantly accentuate the hardship felt by other deprived Australians who are already dependent on welfare and will then be competing with them for our resources, especially indigenous Australians.

        FYI “white” population groups executed between 1 – 2% of their population for nearly a thousand years, based around behaviour which we would term uncivilized, effectively they domesticated themselves. Africans have undergone no such process, indeed until 100 years ago (less in most cases) the genetic traits that favoured reproduction in Africa were the same ones that existed in every other primitive society, including a high degree of violence. The corresponding crime rates attributable to Africans in Africa remains comparable to Africans outside of Africa – around 10 times higher than white populations.

        Other than the absolute quantity of people being poured into Australia, I have repeatedly stated that my main objection to our immigration policy at the moment is Multiculturalism and the fracturing impact it has on our societies ability to reach consensus in its narrative around how to solve the economic problems, of applying available resources to meet the needs of the community.

        I have quite clearly stated that I dislike some cultural values, especially those from the middle east, which I consider backward, bigoted, and frankly incompatible with the existing values of the majority of Australians already residing here. I personally have no interest in seeing them projected forward into the future from within my nation, while competing and clashing against my own, as do the majority of Australians who I will remind you also want limits applied to Muslim immigration.

        If an immigrant from another nation or culture wishes to migrate here, and fully integrate and assimilate into the Australian community, then frankly I care very little about it other than, like you, in terms of the absolute quantities of people being poured into our nation.

        That is the extent of my ‘supremacist crap’.

    • McPaddyMEMBER

      I guess I need to point out that I didn’t take any issue with the points about tolerance of non-mainstream sexuality among immigrants. I don’t believe this is a matter of any debate or controversy. I do take issue with a bald (no offence Stewie) statement that immigrants come to Australia with the intent of sucking the place dry. That’s highly inflammatory and needs evidence.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        McPaddy – I am probably the last person in the world to be take offence at views different to myself. 🙂

      • @mcpaddy in my last decade in China I became shocked at the number of middle class professional Chinese who asked me about migrating to Australia. During the course of multiple conversions over time it became very obvious that access to social welfare was a major factor in their interest in migrating to Australia. Sometimes they would ask me about the relative merits of migrating to the various English speaking western countries i.e. US, NZ,Canada and then we’d get into interesting conversations, it would take them a while to understand why I thought north America was a better long term bet than Aus nz. However these people trusted me and I know these conversations were quite honest in nature. I’m sure they had multiple reasons for considering migration to Australia but pretty pictures in wechat posts from friends and family, it being a group herd popular thing to do and access to our social security were major factors. For those who said they wanted a better future for their children once they understood and accepted the reality of Australia I explained, one which they usually didn’t hear, they told me they’d never migrate to Australia, they’d go to Canada or the US. I often wonder how long some of our new Chinese citizens will stay once they realise this place isn’t what they thought it would be.

      • I completely understand why social security is so attractive to Chinese migrants. It would be to me too if I was Chinese. However I did find them lacking inn initially understanding that most social security was paid from income tax given that is where the ato raises most of its revenue. They were quite shocked at the income tax burden on individuals and thought that companies paid more tax In Australia. In fact it was clear most Chinese hadn’t really thought about where the money for social security came from, I think they just thought the country was so rich it could afford it (I told them God didn’t give us a magic tree and conveniently left out or mineral riches in order to simplify the discussion). Once I described the social compact in Australia they got it, and they understood the importance of paying tax but they just hated the idea of paying tax because in their minds tax went to corrupt governments and therefore everyone had to payas little as possible because no one got any benefit from tax. Sometimes I felt really sorry for the ccp.

      • McPaddyMEMBER

        “They understood the importance of paying tax but they just hated the idea of paying tax because in their minds tax went to corrupt governments and therefore everyone had to pay as little as possible because no one got any benefit from tax”.

        They sound just like our very own K.Packer, whose similar statement is quoted to this day with approval by all and sundry.

        More anecdata, please! Sorry to be pedantic, but if we’re going to accuse whole communities of bad faith, we really need to back it up with evidence.

      • McPaddy, didn’t the Fair Work Ombudsman highlight that migrant business owners are adopting the same approach to paying their staff as where they are coming from, i.e. not paying legal work entitlements?

      • I’m not accusing them of anything in Australia, I’m just relating conversations I had with hundreds of people over a decade in China with people considering migration. End of story as far as my contributing goes to this discussion.

      • And for the record the two people I’ve helped/encouraged migrate from China have been gay. One to Australia (who is now back in China for career reasons-haha) and one to Canada. Both awesome men I love having as friends.

      • McPaddyMEMBER

        @Chase, I see plenty of aussies doing the same. Mainly tradies, but also the Packers of the world openly boasting about rotting the system as hard as they possibly can. So again, where is the proof? It’s a big charge. It needs evidence if not to be laughed out of court. I’m really very happy to be persuaded or enlightened on this.

    • A MintPress News reader hey?
      If you weren’t already on “the list”, you are now. Welcome aboard.

  3. John Howards Bowling Coach

    Bill Shorten is an unlikeable Dud. That he lost to Scummo should mean he is burned by the ALP, but he won’t be, he be aloowed to hang around to soak up more taxpayer funds before some stupid think tank, uni, or corp starts to pay him an enormous amount for adding no value like Paul Howes another likeminded Labor Hero the people of Australia are better of without.
    The last bit is something we need to play close attention to. Migrants pay no tax. They arrive at a very expensive time in their lifecycle, soak up all the available welfare and contribute nothing financially, zero. Contrast that against the leftie media narrative that they all become world leaders in brain surgery.

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      Are you really a bowling coach? if ‘yes/’ could you please start to pass this wisdom around at the clubs, because from what I see, a vote for Libs and Sco Mo was a vote for even more migrants and even lower taxes.

      ScoMo is going to go to town on property boosting ponzi initiatives, migration ponzi, tourism bonanzas, more miracles. ScoMo’s win is one giant kick of the can down the road. Just look at today’s ASX response.

    • A maximum age application cut off of 45, with applications taking up to 5 years, means we have people arriving at 50 years of age – right when they really need Medicare and are becoming less employable. So we have people arriving, working low-tax contributing jobs for 17 years, before getting the pension. Plus they are really using Medicare.

      Where is the benefit to Australia, to the tax coffers?

      We need to radically reduce the maximum age of application, to 35.

      • They are not less ’employable ” they are deemed to be less employable.. I know for real and so does my wife. Need stricter employer acceptance laws around this issue. After all the pension age is getting pushed out and it will end up with everyone apart form the 10% this government caters to (that 10% that own second properties) that can retire at 50.
        However you are right about it not fitting the so called demographic need of a younger population somewhat, much of which could be eliminated by employing both younger people, forcing companies to train them alongside of not dumping people for their 50th birthday

      • You are correct Steve. Bad choice of words. I am very much an advocate for employing those of all ages. I feel that those older are more ‘change ready’ then younger ones, given they have gone through more rapid and radical technological change in the workplace then the youngsters. Plus have a lot of life experience and broader work experience to draw from.

    • Paul Howes! It burns, it burns. Please don’t mention that name again. A toad in a suit who married into Qantas who is one of the ALPs greatest traitors. Perhaps Bill can get a job as cabin crew and annoy the crap out of people with wooden announcements throughout the flight?

  4. (how many of their businesses are cash only!)

    I have been saying that for years. Put in a commercial land tax – offset by any GST paid.

    they care for more money in their pockets.

    Which is why the LNP is giving out $75 cheques again. The ALP should have a policy of giving out a $900 cheque to every non-rich Australian annually. Simple. Far better than giving $158 billion in tax cuts.

  5. Thinking about Qld, Labor is in power at the state level and they mimic Fed Labor on Health, Education and workers’ rights. They do have a strong jobs message + LNP in Qld is a basket-case. Swing voters will vote Labor, given the right policies and lack of worth opponents.

    I also think ScoMo’s messaging cut through. The Bill you can’t afford / Debt / Taxes. Simple folk understand it when it is served up in simple and negative terms. What was Bill’s message? He had so many.

  6. Points 6-7 are totally on the money. Labor has an identity problem and they’ve lost touch with the working middle class.

    Point 9 is also something labor really need to understand. It seems like labor here are following the US democrats in the FSA/equality bandwagon. Problem is new Australians are vastly different to the immigrants arriving on US shores.

    • Snotty Millenial

      Its ironic really

      By pushing the identity politics agenda they’ve lost their own identity in the process.

      Apart from the wages issue, I think labor need to go for broke a take a sustainable australia type policy and make immigration cuts part of their campaign. Guaranteed election winner. Doubt it will happen though

  7. “To me – the number one issue in Australia is our rampant population growth, leading to anemic wages growth, and significant rises to the cost of living (in particular housing and energy).”

    We cannot get traction on protecting the environment while people are being crushed by housing and energy. We have heaps of energy and heaps of space – this is a ludicrous problem.

  8. The simple solution is for Victoria to secede from the Commonwealth (South Oz can go to). Shorten can become Prime Minister and appoint Wong as his Governor General (President is they want to be a republic) and Plibersek as his treasurer.
    The income generators of the commonwealth then would be free of the states that are holding them back, the SJW’s can all move to Victoria and we are all happy.

    • WA, SA, QLD love mass immigration.

      SA can have a good life just by exporting wine. But no, South Australians want Adelaide to be a megaslum of 5 million people.

      The same is true in WA. They can be wealthy from LNG exports and iron ore exports. But the sandgropers want Perth to be a megaslum of 10 million people.

      • nah Jacob us local Sandgroper coolies are not keen on crush loading the joint

    • John Howards Bowling Coach

      I think you’re mistaken, we don’t want them here either.
      On the other swipe, until the stupid governments choked off manufacturing, Victoria was a very strong income generator and still has the largest container port in Aus.

      • The only thing Victoria produces is hot air. Good luck convincing anyone who doesnt live there that you lot pay your way.

  9. I’m just amazed that people don’t understand this simple truth: NORMAL people HATE leftist bullshit. Get that through your heads- it is true whether you like it or not. THEY. HATE. IT.

    Normal working people are sick of ludicrous doomsday predictions about “climate change” (lets all keep in mind that human activity only contributes a negligible 3% of atmospheric CO2), they hate all this gender rubbish and the glorification of the homosexual lifestyle, they despise stupid adolescent SJW’s lecturing them and calling them racists, they’re fed up with the pathetic outrage brigade demanding apologies and resignations every second day and they’re sick of big taxing, over regulating nanny state governments.

    Politicians, academics and mainstream media types are in an echo chamber preaching leftist dogma to one another and are completely out of touch with normal people. The thing they just don’t understand is that out in the real world- everyone HATES them.

    • Snotty Millenial

      You’re reaching

      Australia is full of greedy unimaginative cowards. The slightest whiff of their little gravy train of NG, CGT and other little tax loopholes getting closed and they’ll vote against it.

    • One mans (I doubt so many women are that extreme) ‘left’ is another mans/woman’s centre ground. I dont see the likes of Norway (massive oil but used for the public good, not just tax cuts) as being a full on communist country, however it has adopted most of Labors inclusive social policies. Too many people are simply brainwashed with LNP simplistic slogans propagated by their pet ‘Murdoch press’ ie there is no thinking going on, just a lot of conditioned ‘pavlov’ dogging, repetitive sloganeering behind these assertions and thoughts. (much like the brexit situation in the UK,)

      • As a Norwegian I second this. Socialism isn’t in itself a problem, otherwise Scandinavian countries wouldn’t function at all. They do however, they are some of the most (if not the most) progressive countries in the world and it’s not all oil. E.g. Sweden has no income from oil but has a history of successful manufacturing (cars, heavy machinery, etc) and IT (Spotify, Skype, etc).

        I do long for a more equitable society but having lived in Australia for 15 years I also recognise that there is positives in both societies. E.g. a generous welfare system requires a more homogenous population where people have similar base values and not too many people who try to take advantage of it. This is an issue in Norway. Other things we take for granted back home, like free education, is something I don’t see why we can’t have in Australia as it simply gives people equal opportunity regardless of the family they are born into.

  10. The reality is that Labor will not learn, they say they will but there alliance with communist parties like the greens and get-f#@ed i mean get-up will stop any progress. I would say if they go down the road of electing a supporter of these groups like Tanya Plibersek they will continue down the rabbit hole. There only guy that can at least get them back in some sort of touch with their past voters would be Albo. You watch them stuff this up as well…

    • Snotty Millenial

      Only Albo will save them. Plibersek will be egg on face 2.0 if they go to 2022 with her

      You’re right about the greens, in at least they need to distance themselves heavily from them. The anti-adani caravan thing in North queensland was beyond stupid.

  11. The franking credits policy was a dud. People keep calling it good policy without ever understanding it or the unintended consequences that would have come with it. Bowen had the problems explained to him using irrefutable facts and figures, but didn’t want to know about it. He could easily have modified the policy to make it fairer, but chose instead to tell genuinely distressed lower tier self-funded retirees to not bother voting Labor if they didn’t like it. So that’s exactly what they did.

    Bowen was defending a poorly constructed policy from a position of weakness, so didn’t even bother. Instead he chose to adopt that conceited attitude of smug superiority and abuse of position that everybody just loves in a politician.

    He shares as much responsibility for the Labor defeat as Shorten. If Labor think the answer to their woes lies in that intellectual lightweight sporting psychopathic tendencies, then they are on the fast track to another quality far north QLD pineapple reaming come next election.

    • A simple cap would have killed of the extremes. They lost votes on someone maybe getting $1 or $2,000 back per year, and there would have been 1000’s more of them than the real roters they were targeting

    • Snotty Millenial

      Bowen will get rolled. Almost all of the tax plan falls on him
      I’d like to see Andrew Leigh get moved to shadow treasurer. One seriously smart dude.

      • Both of you on the money. Also Labor went around saying “don’t pay tax, yet get a refund of franking credits” ad nauseam. SMSFs in retirement phase don’t pay tax and do most of the rorting (a simple cap would have fixed this). There are several hundred thousand taxpayers outside of this who pay tax and may get a modest refund of unused franking credits. Many of these people are older and not in a position to go out and earn more to make up for the loss of income had Labor implemented their policy.

      • Snotty Millenial

        Houses and Holes – Just looked at his immigration thoughts, you’re not wrong

        Fuck me, is it actually possible to get someone that doesn’t think EVERY immigrant is a potential Elon Musk, or am I trying to defy physics here?

        FFS, anyone with brains and talent LEAVES Australia. Funnily enough, Elon Musk did actually consider Australia but decided against it, his thoughts on Australia are absolutely priceless https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFYnEYkWljI

        If he was in Aus today he’d be driving Uber,

  12. I think (2) was fundamental. After 28 years of growth, with stable unemployment and high living standards, the average person isn’t looking for an aggressive policy platform. They want stable government that allows them to live their lives happily. In the end, Morrison was (appealingly) more of the same. If Labor had run a gradualist policy platform they may well have won government. Then again, the results suggest they are bleeding from the left (the Green vote held where theirs faltered), so perhaps the aggression was a strategy.

    All of the communications and timing issues to one side (which are also valid), the Australian people didn’t want what Labor was offering, at least not implemented quickly.

    • +1. Morrison stood for security, stability, prosperity. And competed hard all the time.
      No pedigree thoroughbred, but 100% effort 100% of the time.
      And his opponent … “if you don’t like our policies, don’t vote for us.”
      Shorten proved once again that you never, ever, ever give a sucker an even break.

  13. Jumping jack flash

    Good analysis.
    Couldn’t have said it any better, actually.

    Basically, Libs got through on doing nothing, saying nothing, promising nothing, because doing something is a good way to get criticised.

    Once again, it is proved that it is far easier and more profitable to stand back and criticise those who are brave enough to actually do stuff, than do anything yourself.

    Hmm… sounds remarkably like Australia…

    This is besides the most obvious point that any government that sits in the house at the top of the hill will find it incredibly difficult to do anything meaningful and worthwhile after Howard and Keating sold off the ability for governments after theirs to have control over anything meaningful and worthwhile.

    • mild colonialMEMBER

      It’s such a good point. What do politicians do anymore? So much hateful, time wasting, nit picking, attention seeking crap; corruption seems to be achievable though. So many problems crying out for attention and govts have been moribund. Maybe because they have no income, no facilities and no utilities to play with.

  14. People don’t like those pretending to be something else so they vote for open neoliberals

  15. Basically an analysis that is very similar to my own thoughts. I was glad they dialed back the NG stuff, but then when they raised franking credits it was 50/50 contest at that point. All they had to do was sit down and shut up and they would have had the election handed to them on a silver platter. Just go softly on policy proposing only minor changes that cannot be attacked and make the arguments for change when you are in government and have a lot more time to do so.

    I’d also add that climate change is only a solvable problem (at a local scale) if we have good equality. We don’t so fingers tend to get pointed all over the place.

    • I agree. Small target should have won it for them even with Bill as leader. You win first and govern later. They even had the example of John Hewson and they still did Lefty-Fightback. Amazing.
      I also agree point 7. Labor are not the workers party anymore. They are the party of big unions and can work with big business … yes ironically they are the big end of town party. Liberals are the party of small business … includes a lot of tradies nowadays.

  16. innocent bystander

    with preferential voting we have a 2 party system, and that isn’t going to change in the foreseeable future.
    this means parties gain power via the swinging voter.
    and the Australian swinging voter votes via their hip pocket.
    so, in this election, LNP wins, Labor loses.

    last party to win with a reform agenda was Whitlam Labor in 1972.
    and Murdoch soon killed that one off.

  17. I actually think the electorate wanted a “do nothing” party and in the marginal seats I’m not sure there was a “good time” on NG/CGT changes as this article suggests. I’m just looking at the social media commentary around the Macquarie seat which is still very tight (as of now only 12 votes difference after a 82.5% count) and there isn’t much mention of franking credits but quite a few mentions of negative gearing (supporters of it) and “negative equity”. Seems like more anecdotal evidence to confirm that housing tax changes are an election loser especially out in the marginal seats.

    • Snotty Millenial

      The property and NG thing was a major issue, I’ve been trying to convince other ALP supporters as soon as Bowen announced it, it was suicide, the ponzi scheme must continue at all costs.

      Here in SE QLD (where adani has no real bearing) it seems everyone is either directly involved in property or 1 degree of separation from it. Labor got smashed here.

    • I think the tightening of bank lending standards made existing investors more nervous about the proposed NG changes. Shorten kept saying that if you are negatively gearing already then “nothing will change for you”. But, if you go to your bank to try to renegotiate a loan coming off fixed interest, the bank tells you that your loan will be assessed on the assumption that you could NOT negatively gear, even if you can. So, investors are seeing things change for them already (in many cases, they now have to pay 5% interest instead of 4%).

  18. My opinion is the ALP is more accurately described as cosmopolitan moderate republicans w/ a side of socially progressive optics, unlike the knuckle dragging GOP OT-oids, think the movie American Beauty.

    Both sides forward the investment ethos over share of productivity – wages, because that would put off investors.

    Double dare you to increase wages as a share of productivity, nice little currency you have there, shame about your rating, how about a nice IMF loan ….