International students will soon dominate Australia’s universities

Late last year, Dr Bob Birrell from the Australian Population Research Institute (APRI) released a report showing how the share of international students at Australia’s Group of Eight (Go8) universities ballooned from 21.8% in 2012 to 28.9% in 2017:

As we reported yesterday, the number of temporary student visas on issue ballooned by another 77,000 in the year to March 2019 to a record high 613,000:

With this big lift in student visas, we can confidently assume that the share of international students across Australia’s G08 universities grew further in 2018, most likely to above 30%. Moreover, shares of over 40% are now likely for the University of Melbourne, the University of Sydney, Monash University, the Australian National University, and the University of New South Wales.

One commentator, that goes by the avatar JerryOneClass, believes that this trend will continue and that international enrollments could surpass domestic enrollments at the University of Melbourne by 2020:

In this report, we use the University of Melbourne as a case study for international tuition and student enrollment trends as they relate to domestic student trends and inflation…

In 2014, international students represented 31 per cent of the University of Melbourne student population. In a matter of four years, that percentage rose to 46 per cent.

In the University of Melbourne’s annual report for 2018, it was reported to be 42.1% in 2018, yet their international load to their total student load, when calculated, indicates its 45.81%. We rounded it up here.

…international students are enrolling at the University of Melbourne at a far greater pace than domestic students…

In reality, domestic enrollments has not only slowed, but declined since 2014. In 2014 there were 29,437 domestic enrollments. In 2018 there were 28,579.

In 2017 and 2018, the University of Melbourne saw a fall of domestic enrollments by -0.8 per cent and – 5.5 per cent, respectively…

If the present course remains unchanged, there could be more international students enrolled than domestic students by 2020.

Total enrollment of international students has gone from 13,200 to 24,166 in the period from 2014 to 2018. That is, the percentage of international students enrolled at the University of Melbourne has increased by 83.07 per cent in a matter of four years.

With no cap in place for international student enrollment at the University of Melbourne, international students will continue to eat away at the student population proportion.

In 2018, 4178 new international students enrolled in 2018. That makes last year the largest intake of international students ever by the University of Melbourne…

By our estimates, the University of Melbourne could see international student enrollments surpass domestic enrollments as early as 2020 if present trends are extrapolated to the next few years.

Given four Go8 universities had higher international student shares in 2017 than Melbourne University, it also won’t be long until they too are dominated by international students, assuming current trends persist.

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Unconventional Economist
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  1. The Foreign students & partners – please note the actual total of all foreign students & partners on a secondary visa in Australia is across a number of visa categories and is 712,050.

    The International student and post graduate visa holders are 653,000, plus another 62,000 on a ‘partner visas’ & the rest (6,280) as special or DFAT scholarship visas as shown below.
    The total number of foreign students & partners yearly increase was 77,340.

    Here are the full numbers of all the TR & NZ SCV intake & the social & economic impact.

    There are 712,050 foreign students & ‘partners’ which aren’t being included. Up 77,000 in total in the last year.

    It’s not an ‘export industry’, their money – almost all over the life cycle of a visa period is earned here.
    They are a highly negative impact to Australians in the tens of billions.
    Each foreign student has on average a negative impact of some -$25k a year to our society. Detail below.

    The bigger picture.
    In March 2019 we have 2.561 million non residents Temporary visa holders.

    1,866,089 who are non Resident TR, the vast majority are third world unskilled & at least 1.4 million are working & living illegally in visa breach.

    Plus another 695,760 on a NZ SCZ with 278,304 of those as non NZ born & third world unskilled.

    Total 2,561,849. Up 5.3% in the last year.

    The full list as of March 2019.

    Source: Visa Sure & DHA quarterly tables.

    Visa category, the 2018 number, the 2019 number & the yearly growth rate.

    🔹Overstayers permanent stay
    2018: 63,000
    2019: 66,150 +5%

    🔹Visitor long stay, repeat stay, many are entering to live & work illegally.
    2018: 395,000
    2019: 404,760 +3%

    🔹Bridging/protection, come in as a tourist on an electronic visa virtually no checks then claim some protection need and a 5 year plus stay as they exploit the appeals process with full work rights.
    2018: 195,000
    2019: 230,000 +18%

    The Foreign students & partners – please note the actual total of all foreign students & partners on a secondary visa in Australia is across a number of visa categories and is 712,050.

    The International student and post graduate visa holders are 653,000, plus another 62,000 on a ‘partner visas’ & the rest (6,280) as special or DFAT scholarship visas as shown below.

    The total number of foreign students & partners yearly increase was 77,340.

    🔹International Student primary, 4 year plus stay, and many up to 9 years as they churn courses, COE & visa categories.
    2018: 526,000
    2019: 573,520 +7.5%

    🔹Post Graduate, another 3-5 year stay plus full work rights as they exploit this loophole, very long stay
    2018: 65,000
    2019: 69,550 +7%

    🔹Temp partner ‘foreign student’ very long stay – 4 to 9 years
    2018: 53,000
    2019: 62,000 +16%

    DFAT/special ‘education’ visas (below)
    2018: 6,300
    2019: 6,980 +15%

    Total foreign students & partners

    The foreign students pay a total of only $8.3 billion in fees (Deloitte Access Economics) – an average of $11,650 per year for the visa alibi.

    Exposing that the vast bulk of foreign students as a ‘primary’ / enrolled are doing extremely low level education, often available free online or in their home country.

    Funds. They only bring in a total of $2.4 billion in ‘self declared’ or ‘one time check’ funds (ABF), extensively frauded, with only the first semester paid & the rest of the money for fees, living expenses, loan debt repayment & remittances back to their family’s is earned here illegally.

    Not an ‘export’ if their money is earned here.

    The average foreign student has an income & economic activity of around $43,700 a year – close to half the Australian GDP per Capita average, with up to 75% working illegally (Sydney Uni & UTS studies – SMH).
    They have lowered the Australian gdp per Capita average by 6.8%.
    The net result is over 505,000 full time equivalent Australian jobs are stolen in underground & cash in hand illegally work displacing Australian youth & unskilled Workers.
    We have 1.5 million Australians unemployed & 1.3 million seeking work (Roy Morgan April 2019).
    Those 505,000 now unemployed Australians cost $9.3 billion in Centrelink payments.
    So just the unemployment impact costs to the Australian taxpayer exceed the total foreign student fees (which are paid from money earned illegally here anyway).

    On just this one simple measure it’s obvious the ‘foreign students’ are not an ‘export industry’ at all.

    If you add on illegal work, lowered wages for everyone, little or no taxation as cash in hand, the $18 billion remittances outflow from all the TR, the housing contention & costs, illegal cash in hand subletting run by the foreign criminal landlords, the public transport & road congestion, crime, vice, the degradation of our education and now environmental (water power etc) impacts…

    then the foreign student industry is a massively negative social and economic impact of many tens of billions to Australia. Up to $17 billion negative, itemised here on MB before.

    Which means every foreign student & partner individually creates a -$25,000 or more net negative impact to Australian’s society & economy.
    But,, but they are a ‘high value pool that can be selected as ‘highly skilled human capital’ (Deloitte value this as an $7 billion ‘human capital’ contribution)..


    The productivity commission in 2016 ruled that foreign students were not at all productive or skilled intake contribution. The Migrant pathways a decade on report stated only 3.9% of foreign students achieved a high income professional vocation in Australia or their home country – most are doing very low level nonsense courses with no international accreditation or particular high skill outcome.

    . So in other words 96% of the foreign students ‘studying in Australia’ achieve lower than average socio economic outcomes after a decade – exposing just what a farce this so called ‘international education industry’ really is – a visa alibi to live & work illegally, repay agent procurer loan debt, send back remittances to try and secure a PR as an anchor for chain migration.

    Remove work rights and enforce it and visa conditions of entry – and over half a million of these ‘foreign students & partners’ would immediately exit.
    Then we have outside of the foreign students.

    🔹Temp partners not foreign student
    2018: 38,000
    2019: 39,300 +3%

    🔹Working holiday, very long stay
    2018: 148,000
    2019: 153,400 + 4%
    90% are in Sydney & Melbourne, doing the 3 month ‘farmer or labor ring bribe’ rural work for a further visa extension.

    🔹Skilled Regional, very long stay
    2018: 20,000
    2019: 21,500 +7%
    Again heavily frauded, third world unskilled in areas where we have 20% youth unemployment.

    🔹Other Temporary Visas, long stay including scholarships & other rackets.
    2018: 70,000
    2019: 72,800 +4%

    🔹Employer Sponsored, very long stay
    2018: 152,000
    2019: 155,040 +2.4%

    🔹Business Provisional, long stay
    2018: 28,000
    2019: 28,840

    ➡️ The Total TR number is
    2018: 1,762,000
    2019: 1,866,089 + 5.9%

    🔹Plus add on the NZ SCV

    2018: 669,000 of which 270,000 are non NZ born born third world unskilled entering via the NZ transit lounge.
    Our fastest growing third world unskilled migrant intake category. They should never have been allowed in, the NZ / Aust SCV should only be for NZ / Aust born.

    2019: 695,760 with an increasing ratio of non NZ born unskilled (and another 290,000 who are stacked up waiting for entry into Australia). 90% one way flow to enter NZ, get the passport stamp, then enter Australia as permanent stay.

    All up numbers.

    2018: 2,431,000 non resident permanent on a very long or permanent stay visa alibi onshore in Australia.

    2019: 2,561,849 non resident, as above & mostly third world adult unskilled with the majority on a visa pretext, many in visa breach, living & working illegally onshore. +5.3% yearly growth.

    TR & NZ SCV migrant concentrations.

    89% + concentration or 2,280,046 in Sydney & Melbourne.

    🔻1.27 million are in Sydney (pop 5.2 million)
    🔹1 in 4 people.

    🔻1.01 million are in Melbourne (pop 5 million)
    🔹1 in 5 people.

    🔻and 281,000 are elsewhere, mostly highly concentrated in other state capital cities & towns.

    The Australian people need a Royal Commission into the entire corrupted border controls & visa system.

    Our migrant intake policy settings, conditions of entry & numbers need to be controlled by a people’s representative body, not the political party in charge of government.

    Over 1.4 million temporary visa holders who are in visa breach & over 270,000 non NZ born SCV who should never have been allowed in – need to be force exited.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Why have you had to use a new identity Mike? Were you finally reined in for your racialist propaganda against the joys of vibrancy? We don’t need to hear this stuff. Good people prefer to only hear the good news about vibrancy like the new fusion restaurants, thank you very much.

      • 🙂 lost the password ha
        Been posting exactly the same thing for 5 years now?
        Mb finally woke up last couple of months
        It’s the TR that is the big issue & impact
        Far greater than the PR
        Always was.

        ‘Restricting the PR’ does nothing
        Just redirects the third world unskilled criminal organised trafficking into pseudo permanent TR or via the Nz scv permanent stay route..

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        ^^ Don’t worry, they’ve all been posting the same thing for the last 5 years…

  2. Strayan unis will still fulfil the most important function of keeping the headline UE down as long as the supply of their seat capacity remains elastic.

  3. Melbourne University has published a “green paper” which looks at the big reduction over the last few years in students sense of “belonging”!
    This directly correlates with international student numbers. It also is related to “celebrating diversity”. Incredibly it makes NO linkage to this lament with the reduction in unity from this emphasis on diversity and international student numbers. It is also not being helped by a new, international, VC

    • Melbourne University is kidding itself.
      The number of international students has grown so fast that facilities can barely keep up.
      Add to this the fact that the Uni went through a “Business Improvement Plan” some 5 years ago, in which some 400-500 staff were shed.
      Most of the Australian born students don’t come onto campus on a daily basis.
      Much of the course material is now available online and lectures are recorded and viewed online.
      Existing facilities on campus cannot accommodate the number of students that need to come indoors on a rainy day and efforts have been made to increase the density of places for students to sit down and study. So basically, more students crammed in with each other.
      Under the watch of the former VC Glyn Davis, the international ranking went up but paradoxically, standards and quality went down. It’s not entirely his fault though. Tertiary education in Australia has been underfunded by governments for the last 20 odd years.

  4. Its a disgrace. The tertiary edication infrastructure in this country was set up and paid for by generations of Australians for the benefit of their children’s education. That valuable legacy is being subverted.

    • Yes, that’s right – it’s backdoor privatisation. Same thing at CSIRO. Neoliberal triumph.

      • It is not privatisation. It is a complete lack of accountability.

        Only Bond Uni is private. The rest are government-funded but they are no strings attached to the funding!

      • I say “back door” because the percentage of private money of the total funding has gone up hugely and this tail is wagging the dog.
        Of course there is accountability, the universities are measured to death and there are bodies such as TEQSA.

    • I wouldn’t mind so much except for the linkage between PR and study in this country. If there were no linkage, low standards would eventually (and deservedly) destroy each of these institutions.

      • “If there were no linkage….”

        Yeh. And as I keep telling you, if my auntie had balls, she’d be my uncle.

  5. Ronin8317MEMBER

    When I went to university, international student numbers are capped at 10%. It should have remained there.

    Looking at the big picture, this is done in preparation for a complete privatization of the tertiary education sector.

    • Torchwood1979

      Yes it should have remained capped at 10% And viewed as a way to culturally enrich our university environments.

      But no, let’s make education “a market” and open our universities up to the same unbridled greed that infected our banks.

      BTW when was that 10% cap lifted? Sometime under Howard IIRC.

  6. So Australians will soon be the international students in their own Uni’s!
    Go Straya!

  7. Just on the train overhearing a conversation from some bloke that works in the educational sector. Mentioned something about the company he works for just floated on the ASX. Anyway they have some software that is used to determine the likely hood of students cheating. Ran it over some college / uni and it spat out some figures. Apparently the institution isn’t to keen on doing anything because of the high fees the overseas students pay and they would lose a lot of money if they came down hard on them.

  8. Universities will just start branding themselves as ‘global’ institutions…. All good, right?

  9. reusachtigeMEMBER

    This is good news for the profits of our universities and will make them much more robust financially. My hope is one day that all education is built around profit centres so that my hard earned tax dollars are no longer leeched into the education sector.

  10. Soon dominate!? Didn’t you hear, Murdoch’s VC was once an international student? They’re already amongst us.

    No one would have believed in the last years of the nineteenth century that this world was being watched keenly and closely by intelligences greater than man’s …a multiglobal university is the next stage.

  11. Time for a first-world rant. I have lost count of how many times I have ordered a double-beef and bacon burger from Maccas and ended up with single beef patty. I propose the following entrance examination question.

    “How many beef patties are in a Double-Beef and Bacon burger?”