Essential: Labor winning comfortably

Via The Guardian:

Labor has maintained its election-winning lead over the Coalition as the election campaign enters its final fortnight, according to a new Guardian Essential poll.

The survey of 1,079 people shows Labor is leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis 52% to 48%, a slight lift within the poll’s margin of error compared to last week, when Labor was ahead 51% to 49%.

But after the start of the election campaign saw the two major parties stage a recovery in their primary vote, support for both major parties has again slumped, suggesting the flow of preferences may still prove critical to the election outcome.

Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 34% compared to 37% a week ago and below the 34.7% it recorded at the last election, while the primary vote for the Liberal and National parties combined remains at 38% – down a point from last week, but unchanged from five weeks ago.

Support for minor parties combined sits at 28%, with the Greens lifting their support from 9% a week ago to 12%, One Nation on 7% and other independents, including Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, preferred by 9% of voters.

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  1. bcnichMEMBER

    What’s odds of a rare cut today? Does anyone know and what’s priced into market, I heard one in July and half early next year is priced in?

    • DominicMEMBER

      Surely ‘zero’. I thought rate cuts ahead of the election is verboten?

      The next move will be momentous either way as the RBA will have to accompany it with a detailed explanation of how the world has changed to justify it.

    • triageMEMBER

      I heard somewhere that rate cuts happened before the 2007 and 2013 elections (cause or effect, the ruling party lost both times).

      May depend on how strong the happy clappy solidarity is. The [RBA] Gov could well argue that whether they cut now or after the election is largely indifferent in economic terms (and the Libs next election could then argue that the rate cuts only started once Labor were elected).

  2. So raise new start? Why? We have immigrants over here doing uber on their bike getting paid maybe 150 a day for 10 hours….good money compared to the dole. Just an example.
    Put it up even more no incentive to work.

    No centrelink in most countries. No choice but to get off your tush and get moving.
    How about also limiting welfare to your second child and that’s it.

    • TighterandTighter

      Oh yes, let’s wheel out the “everyone on newstart wants to be there” canard
      that part of newstart is a VANISHINGLY small problem, which you’d know if you inspected your tax bill each year

      have you been on newstart? I have. It’s no party.

      • Yep. Been there. The only thing Newstart is good for is that it slows the erosion of your savings when you’re forced to live off them. When you’re on Newstart, you want off that ride pretty damn quickly.

      • TighterandTighter

        Hixtar I had to spend 20k in savings for mortgage payments before getting newstart
        I did the right thing and did so, but should have had that sitting with family.

    • Yeah all those countres where you “get off your tush”.

      You mean like most countries in Africa, South America, Asia? Good story

    • Newspoll is the most accurate poll. The other polls jump around.

      Or get Brandseye to do the polling.

  3. Get Up should have concentrated on marginal seats instead of trying to get Abbott to lose his seat.

    • Arrow2MEMBER

      Getup focuses on gotcha style politics that pleases its base and thus gets its base to donate more to getup.

      Getup is not strategic.

      • TighterandTighter

        There is an element of strategy and tactics to eliminating Tony the Non Wrecking Wrecker
        Having him gone, and if we’re lucky Dutton, will make a meaningful difference to this next parliament

    • GetUp is a George Soros funded operation as per wikileaks documentation released in mid-2016.

      • Incorrect. GeUp! is an Illuminati funded operation to put Reptillians into positions of power to further policies that will stop the natural warming of planet and usher in a new ice-age so that dinosaur riding Nazi’s can come out of their Antarctic bases to take-over the world and make Hillary Clinton the Queen of England, even though….emails.

      • @Nathan the revelation that GetUp was part of George Soros’ empire of leftist NGO’s was well publicised at the time.

      • @jimsmith76

        You just can’t handle the truth. I’m sure the ” well publicised” fake news on your fake blogs that the Reptillians are using to cover the REAL truth say lots of things. David Icke knows what’s going on. Take of the mask, Jimsmith76, and show your true face!

      • @jimsmith76
        Out of curiosity I went looking for something to show that GetUp! is funded by George Soros. I could find instances of the claim but no evidence to support it. What evidence is there?

      • @footsore the evidence was part of the information released by wikileaks in relation to George Soros’ funding of Hillary’s campaign via NGO’s, it’s there it was posted on reddit in mid-2016.

      • @jimsmith76

        Lol “posted on Reddit”! What garbage. You can’t even provide a legible source. Why? Because there is none. You’ve just read some fake garbage and it gels with your conspiracy addled brain, and all your phobias. Jews, women, “the left” its all a conspiracy to get you. You are sad.

      • @Nathan one may call him a leftist, degenerate, neo-liberal, it all runs of him like water off a raincoat. But call him a George Soros shill and you will be astonished at how he recoils, how injured he is, how he suddenly shrinks back: ‘I’ve been found out.'”

      • @jimsmith76
        You still haven’t provided anything to show that what you are saying has any basis in fact.

      • @footsore, I have provided you with the sources of information champ, I suggest you do the research yourself.

      • Nathan instead of crying conspiracy, reptilinan, Nazi, far right, etc. just look it up yourself,
        “…had not accepted funding from Mr Soros or his Open Society Foundation since 2009” [1]
        In other words they had accepted donations from Soros in 2009 and prior. Then there is the wikileaks stuff which you have to do a bit of digging to find, there are usually torrents of the dumps getting around but you will have to look that up yourself.

      • Kensz0MEMBER

        Why would it be a problem if Soros provided seed funding for GetUp? Don’t the Koch brothers fund grassroots campaigns from the right side of politics? Why is Soros so bad?….oh…

      • Thanks, Vanja.

        The article states that it wasn’t Soros, but a group that Soros donated to prior to 2009, that donated to GetUp!.

    • @footsore once again demonstrating you’re an NPC by being so low information, here are the sources from 2016 and as Vanja stated the source documents are located in various torrents etc which need some effort and knowledge to be accessed these days, however the original leaks were shared on social media such as reddit at the time.

      @kenszo the Koch brothers are not right-wing they’re neo-liberal globalists of the worst kind.

      • Kensz0MEMBER

        Jim, what would be the problem if George Soros provided seed funding to GetUp?

      • @kenzso because it demonstrates these so-called grassroots leftist movements are nothing more than the propaganda arm of a globalist billionaire, evident in his support for numerous ‘colour revolutions’ across the globe in the last twenty years.

      • There’s no evidence that GetUp! is a Gorge Soros funded foundation.
        This is from the AFR article that Vanja provided the link to above.

        “Liberal conservative Eric Abetz was more concerned on Wednesday about the influence of foreign investors like billionaire philanthropist George Soros.
        GetUp! in Australia receives about one per cent of its annual income, and about $300,000 in the past two years, from foreign sources and told the 2016 election parliamentary inquiry it was happy to comply with a foreign donation ban if it was imposed.
        Senator Abetz, representing Tasmania where Liberals attributed some of the blame for the loss of several seats to GetUp! campaigning, said a crackdown on foreign donations should include the “careful consideration” of third parties like GetUp.
        “With large international donors like George Soros seeking to influence Australian politics, this reform is now more important than ever,” Senator Abetz said.
        New York-based Avaaz, which donated almost $200,000 to GetUP! between 2013 and 2015, said it was not affiliated with GetUp! and it had not accepted funding from Mr Soros or his Open Society Foundation since 2009.”

        The AFR article states that a group that George Soros used to donate money to a group that has donated to GetUp!. If you then go to Wikileaks and search GetUp! you will get 6 results. A search for GetUp! and George Soros brings up 0 results. The link between Avaaz and GetUp! is far easier to establish. A biography for someone who has worked for both pops up if you search Wikileads for GetUp! and Avaaz.

        All up it reads like Eric Abetz mentioned George Soros and GetUp! at the same time which has led to people tying the two together. As jimsmith76 points out, all it takes is a little bit of research. He really should follow his own advice.
        For those that want to play along at home:

  4. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    I think Bill Shorten will become our most beloved and longest serving Prime Minister ever!
    No one is buying all this negative press about him.
    He is clearly a top bloke and if he can manage to learn how to down a Schooner in 3.2 seconds.
    He will easily take the crown from Hawkie as the best Prime Minister in the history of Parlimentary Democracy.

    • Soon Australia will have hundreds of millions of new consumers and all our woes will be fixed. Viva Big Bill.

    • Yeah nah, Bill is an underwhelming sort of bloke, more John Howard than Bob Hawke. Doesn’t mean he can’t make a success of things though.

      edit: someone just egged scummo.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        If this Egging is a true story then Sydneys 2GB will be going mental!

      • the egging story is true, it happened in Albury and you have to love the little tyrants who populate the left.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I must admit to wondering what the media response would have been to Sarah Hanson Young coping a thrown egg right in the face.
        No doubt howls of Misogyny would have followed.

      • We wouldn’t have this problem if we could get some skilled egg crackers into this country. These kids on Newstart are hopeless.

      • @ErmingtonPlumbing
        A woman was charged for the egg throwing. I await the reformist corporatist media like the ABC and Guardian to bloviate incessantly about misandry, because you know, ‘oppressed’ woman are held to an equal and equitable standard of moral agency in society.

  5. Be good to have a Macrobusiness guide to voting against Big Australia. Obviously there is SAP but where to after that?

  6. Got robo called by a Liberal funded research firm last night. About 12 questions. First 6 were done in a neutral unbiased manner and I couldn’t tell who it was for. The back end was full of Liberal propaganda using statements like “Liberals record funding in education vs Labor higher taxes for more than Liberal record funding”. So legit research turned into a campaign call. Interesting insight was it was all Liberal vs Labor questions, which I understand, but our state seat went Green in the last election and our suburbs are covered in Green campaign material. I reckon this election will be remembered for the rise in small parties … and the big guys will have to wake up to a new voting paradigm.

  7. bobby bouygues

    Govt actually needs to win seats off Labour to win due to redistribution. Even standing still not good enough for them. Seems like 2008, 2012 US elections when everyone was trying to pretend it was tighter than it was. ScoMo has done the best he could but the product he is trying to sell is an absolute sh$t sandwich. Pretty hard to win a third election even if you are pretty good, and these guys are not good. Economy soft, people sick of them

    ScoMo’s efforts and energy probably saved a few seats but it might be the difference between losing by 25 seats and losing by 15. Dutton would have been their Barry Goldwater

    Another leader might be winning by more for ALP, but strongly suspect Bill will be better at governing than campaigning. Gives the impression that behind the scenes he is a smart operator and can negotiate – even if he is a bit false and uninspiring. Just because you are good at campaigning doesn’t mean you can’t be bloody hopeless at governing (see Rudd, K and Abbott, T)

  8. BubbleyMEMBER

    If Labor wins, they are going to inherit an economic thalidomide baby.

    Its a basket case and they are going to get blamed for it (again) they are going to fix it (again) then, when things start to swing up the LNP will get in and say they fixed it (again) The LNP will also crow about how they are “good economic managers” and this will cement the facts in the voters minds.

    This happened in the GFC and before that too. Its so frustrating that voters never remember and believe the lies vomited at them.