Boilover!

Via the ABC:

Scott Morrison has earnt a permanent place as a Liberal Party legend — returning the Government in what was meant to be an unwinnable election for the Coalition.

Mr Morrison smashed the doctrine that disunity will lead to electoral death.

Despite three prime ministers in two terms of government, the Queensland swing to back the Coalition and swings in Tasmania and WA showed that ultimately jobs and fear of change are too dominant.

The Prime Minister made the campaign all about economic management and himself — out-campaigning Labor by running a brutal and stunning campaign demolishing Labor’s big-target policy agenda.

Mr Morrison made the campaign a referendum on him and Bill Shorten, and downplayed the Liberal brand — cultivating a new Scott Morrison image and promising to be a steady pair of hands on the economy.

He told a packed crowd of Liberal supporters in Sydney he had always believed in miracles.

“And tonight we’ve been delivered another one,” he said.

The ‘new’ Morrison

Labor took a big risk campaigning on big changes to tax loop holes including franking credits and negative gearing, allowing Mr Morrison to spend every day of the campaign casting doubt on the way Labor would remake the country.

The marketing metamorphosis of Mr Morrison, from the tough-on-borders hard head to the daggy suburban dad next door, was an important and strategic pivot for a party with a diminished frontbench and deep ideological schisms in its ranks.

His message was sharp, piercing and he never deviated from the one central claim — that Labor was a high-taxing risk to the economy and Mr Shorten would take money “from your pocket”.

By contrast, Labor drifted from message to message — it started on health, moved to wages and staggered into climate change.

Crazy brave ploy backfired

Labor took considerable policy risks in this campaign, making itself the big target with a suite of policies which had identifiable and quantifiable losers.

It was crazy brave, breaking the orthodoxy that oppositions should slide into government without taking big policy risks.

Compare it to the last change of government, to Labor in 2007 when Kevin Rudd campaigned on an agenda of being a younger John Howard and matching the Coalition’s tax cuts.

Labor took a gamble by taking this approach, but in the end the public made the judgement that the risk was too big.

Australians have reinforced the 1993 precedent — some say curse — that has encouraged oppositions to play it safe and steer away from bold big ideas.

A long night of the soul

Labor’s repudiation at this election will now lead to considerable soul searching and recriminations on the mission of their side of politics.

The party prosecuted a message about the future premised on climate action and fairness while the Coalition stuck to a disciplined campaign with almost no new policy announced apart from the tax cuts unveiled in the Budget and a last-minute pitch for aspiring young home owners.

Labor made itself the conversation every day of the campaign by default — it had the policies to scrutinise.

The Liberals provided so little policy they provided zero risk.

Mr Morrison proved to be a formidable campaigner who crashed over the revolving prime minister question by formulating the “Canberra bubble” answer that neutralised the question and its sting.

Labor strategists say Mr Shorten’s negative personal rating was a big issue throughout the campaign — that voters never warmed to him despite attempts to soften his image through the use of his wife Chloe and the talented women on his frontbench.

Labor left to pick up the pieces

The official Labor party function on election night was like a wake. The Labor faithful were in shock and disbelief that the nation had repudiated their message of fairness and come at them with “baseball bats” in Queensland in particular.

Mr Shorten’s address was raw and emotional, but gracious.

“This has been a tough campaign. Toxic at times. But now that the contest is over, all of us have a responsibility to respect the result, respect the wishes of the Australian people and to bring our nation together,” he said.

“I wish we could have won for the true believers, for our brothers and sisters in the mighty trade union movement.

“I wish we could have done it for Bob.”

He delivered the kind of speech the Labor Party — and the nation — needed right now, with a call for unity at its heart.

Now Labor looks to how to pick up the pieces.

Talk has already turned to who takes over. Tanya Plibersek — the only name Mr Shorten singled out in his concession speech — Anthony Albanese, Chris Bowen and Jim Chalmers are all possible contenders.

Labor declared early in the campaign that when you change the government, you change the country.

Australians determined the country was better as it is.

That’s one reason, among many others. More tomorrow…

Comments

      • Are you kidding? This is Liberal Party HQ.

        Australia and MB congrats. You have both jumped the shark.

        The reason why the Liberal Party won can be summed up in one word…… GREED.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Liberal party HQ? Do your eyes glaze over every post except those by Reusa?

      • DominicMEMBER

        @Kolchak
        You should really pay attention to what is actually being said rather than what you think is being said. The general impression I have is that the proprietors of MB are centre-left (politically) and most members and commenters I’d put in the same bracket. At the very least, most are sympathetic to the concept of social justice.

        I don’t think I can recall a single pro-Scummo comment and the only vaguely pro-LNP comment I can recall was from Ric who hasn’t appeared on these boards for a year or more. To Ric’s credit, he said that a Labor Govt had no chance of coming to power in this country right now.

      • I would be more worried about that if Labour had won. These days conservatives prefer to support freedom of speech, as the left-wing media tries to create a uniform popular culture. The misleading polls prior to the election day say a lot!

      • Don’t care if H&H bans me me again, but you all exist in a hate bubble. Its irrational, and destructive. Shorten was wooden and ideologue, his leaving speech couldn’t have fitted more cliches if you had tried; Morrison was electric, and the way he spoke, he could win another two or three elections on the trot.

        Great day for democracy.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        @Research … Either party and either leader (and to be fair the Greens and most of the other “Parties” are included in this) are a disgrace. …. a vote for any of them is like another nail in the coffin (or, as they like to crow, a newly built house or highrise)

    • Truth is hate speech

      “You can tear a man’s tongue out, but you’re not proving him a liar but only that you fear what he has to say”

      People are waking up and the more vicious the censorship, the more obvious that our façade of a free and liberal democracy is just that. Communism never died, it went underground. 20th century history is fascinating when you really study it as opposed to the cartoonish memes presented…

      • hey bowen shorten can join hewson in the mouthy fxckwitz order of meatworkers. excellent
        and the bellwether trope wrt eden monaro can get in the bin with the pollsters

  1. Now the election is out of the way, the Royal Commission a fading memory and Morrison has three years free of any internal coups, he can get to work fixing the economic engine that drives Liberal governments.

    The household debt / house price bubble.

    Plenty of tools available and no lack of commitment either.

    1. FHB bribes
    2. Legislative clarification of why banks can never lend irresponsibly.
    3. APRA and ASIC back in their boxes
    4. Plane loads of LNP friendly immigrants
    5. Interest rate cuts by the RBA.
    6. RMBS purchases by the RBA
    7. No negative gearing changes
    8. Nice fat 50% CGT discount.
    9. Taxpayer support for banks sucking in ZIRP capital to supply cheap loans.

    Providing we bite out tongues and continue to do everything we can to help MCGA (Making China Great Again) and China does not blow itself up, what stands in the way of a bit more house price bubble goodness?

    The only thing that will prevent it is a crashing AUD and that will not happen while people are keen to buy our dirt, assets and claims on our future income.

    In other words …..no time soon.

    • FHB bribes, NG and CGT discount already in play and prices are falling. There’s not much left to cut in terms of IR. Immigration will probably be less than it would be under labor and they have to shove a few of them out to the bush for a little while at least. Investor sentiment may improve a little, but I think it’s still down for house prices.

      • The only thing that matters is the AUD.

        There are too many ways of converting the strength of the AUD into housing price support and Morrison will leave NONE of those shots in his locker.

        Even Macrobusiness is calling for interest rates cuts which, despite denials, amounts to converting some AUD strength into house price support. The RBA will only cut rates to stimulate demand for credit and that credit will go to housing as sure as night follows day. Even if only to support prices.

        When the AUD really slides then we are talking about nowhere to hide.

      • Pfh007, you can cut rates but that drops the dollar. Price of everything goes up as we are an importing economy. Have you seen the price of fuel since dollar 0.69? Your mortgage might cost less, but everything else will cost more.

      • AI,

        Years ago we were told the AUD would crash with rates a lot higher than what we have.

        The AUD will not sink far while we are selling the place off and running a trade surplus.

      • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

        Just cost over $100 to fill the family car at the bowser.

        It will only get more expensive.

        Sco Mo will now own the housing bust, economy falling to pieces and the debt from forever increasing.

        Not sure how he will spin that.

      • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

        On the highway 10L per 100km but around town like more near 15L per 100km

        But as premium creeps towards $2 a litre anything with 50L or more tank will cost a gum leaf.

        Plenty of big 6 cylinders and Hiluxes on the road sitting a in traffic in Sydney town.

      • Jumping jack flash

        @TRE

        “Sco Mo will now own the housing bust, economy falling to pieces and the debt from forever increasing.”

        Pretty obvious that people expect the libs to save their house prices.

        Their faces when they realise government got no control over anything that matters…

    • What stands in the way?
      1. Wage growth. Without this ingredient it would be hard to push RE prices much higher.. 20% max and then we hit max borrowing capacity.
      2. Chinese capital controls. I can’t see China loosening up this.
      3. Skilled immigrants prepared to come to Oz in order to become debt slaves. Generally this demographic group have brains and will always favour other OECD countries over us. Main reason – expensive housing.
      4. You did mention if Chine does not blow itself up. Even if iChina does not.. for China to survive (assuming no deal with US) China will have to slow down further. This means China will force its young to study at home. Only very small % will be allowed to study OS.
      5. For same reasons as point 4 I would expect reduction in Chinese tourists. Large reduction.

      If US/China relations deteriorate it is almost guaranteed that there will be some trade sanctions applied from both sides. That will drag us into the trade war. And what can we do? Restrict IO, coal and gas exports? It is more self harm than harming China. Australia’s rear earth minerals industry will be born but will not be enough to make up in job losses from iron ore, gas and coal exports.

      There is simply too much private debt. I think we were in trouble back in 2016/17 but there were still greater fools (in Chinese buyers) to bail us out every time we could not services our mega mortgages. This masked the arrears data as at the end the loans were repaid in full and even leave the gambler with some spare cash.

      The only way to restart the RE bubble is to openly advertise that we will launder dirty money – this will bring all international drug syndicates to start buying RE here. It will last for couple of years before international pressure forces us to cut it.

      Bottom line is for the game to keep going on, RE prices must go up. We are in a Ponzi scheme and no such scheme ever worked where prices will be going down or stabilise. I can’t see how our Uber drivers can keep borrowing ever larger loans..

      I am happy Libs won so they end up holding the bag. But yes, I agree they will put APRA and rest in their boxes and yes there might be a small short lived spike. Might, might not. Time will tell.

      • Nikola,

        All your points amount to an argument that the AUD will fall.

        In other words external causes.

        I agree with that which is why I say the AUD is the thing to watch.

        However, the AUD is still strong and we are now running a trade surplus.

        So don’t hold your breath.

      • If there is a full trade war then AUD will fall below 60c. The moment our IO, Coal and Gas exports start to slow down AUD will drop like a rock in the ocean. There are two rate cuts coming our way too.
        Also to consider is LIBS government win that gives China green light to proceed with Plan A which is to play as tough as they can. China probably had Pan B in case Labour wins but now it is game on.
        Our economy is already slowing down and will require both fiscal and monetary injections to just keep us going. All signs of a deflating Ponzi. We will be the only OECD country that will be cutting IRs.
        My main point is our economy is now just huge RE bubble. No other industry matters. We already export as much as we could. We now enter China style stimulus packages that our current and future govs will be launching – building roads and bridges to nowhere. How would those be funded?

      • I think we agree but I am less convinced China is going to slow or implode any time soon.

      • Nikola, re Australian exports to China (30% of our exports risks.

        Just say (hypothetically) Trump pulls off his US / China ‘trade rebalancing’ deal.

        And the overall goal by both countries is not to reduce the Chinese exports to the US, but to massively increase US exports to China.
        By say $250-300 billion a year over time.

        Just say again hypothetically- a 10 year US to China $2 Trillion export deal.

        Who exacy are the ‘winners’ & ‘losers’?

        What exactly does China import today?
        Who is impacted by China switching to the US as a supplier.

        First, Trump holds all the cards on fixing trade and the corrupt Chinese trade practices and manipulation.

        128 million Chinese live directly or indirectly off china exports to the US.

        China has 3 major insurgencies underway, Tibet, Mongolia, Urghars, plus HK & others in rebellion.

        The China One Belt Road has failed, lost in corruption and hated by surrounding countries frightened by china’s empirical ambitions.

        The Chinese communists have lost face as Trump backed Taiwan to block any ‘One China’ invasion, and China lost their South China Sea claim – US navy ships steam thru.
        The Chinese Pig industry just collapsed. African Swine Fever, 100% mortality, the Ebola of pigs 🐖🚫 has now spread all over China & now into all of Asia.
        In China, up to 148 million pigs dead (19% of their 780 million pigs) from African Swine Fever – read this Time article.
        http://time.com/5580126/china-swine-fever-pork-industry-spreading/

        China eats 55 million tons of pork.
        It’s the poor people’s staple protein.
        There is literally not enough fish, beef, chicken in the world to make up the gap.

        The US economy is surging and forecast to grow further / even if China dumped its US holdings & bonds, they would be quickly snapped up by the rest of the world.

        China has a collapsing stock market, faltering economy, massively in debt, rebellions, and faces a hundred million unemployed Chinese in their cities, and No PORK BUNS..

        => Rivers of blood & civil war unless the communist party regime folds.

        🇺🇸 Trump holds all the cards👌🏻

        So let’s say a 10 year US $$2.1 TRILLION Trade win.

        🔹The Winners & Losers in China import volume & priorities.

        #1. Plant. US plant : replacing North Asian & Europe plant, some small Australian.

        #2 Energy. US gas / replacing Qatar, Australia & south east Asian gas. US gas is 19% cheaper (with current tariffs) than Qatari gas. The US is poised to be the world’s largest gas exporter in 3 years, overtaking Qatar & Australia.

        #3 Coal. US thermal & metallurgical coal / replacing Indonesia, Vietnamese, Australia & Brazil coal.

        #4 Ores. US replacing Australia & Brazil & other suppliers Ore.

        #5 Chemicals / plastics etc. US replacing a variety of Asian, European suppliers.

        #6 Food – that would increase in imports in the pending China meat / protein crisis. US has everything in surplus, meat, grain, along with South Asia, Australia & NZ also.

        #7 Vehicles, heavy vehicles & consumer – replacing European & North Asian vehicles.

        #8 Services: replacing Europe, north Asian, Australian etc services.

        #9 IP, patents, copyright royalties in both IT & Pharma, China stops theiving & pays royalties. Mostly to the US.

        #10 Milk Powder, supplements, vitamins, US taking share from NZ, Australia, European products.

        -/-
        That’s about 27% of our current export trade with China exposed. You would hope the US would act to protect Australia at the expense of say Indonesia, Europe, Vietnam, Brazil, Qatar being displaced first.

        But it will be ‘US’ & ‘China’ first in deciding that.

        It doesn’t bode well for Australia.

        🔻No trade deal, China continues to falter, low growth, our exports reduced.

        🔹Trump China Trade deal – Australia, NZ, Indonesia & many others face major loss in trade exports.

      • Ekimmb – agree 100% about your view if US/China strike a deal. In the past I have pointed to this point many times. US/China deal will be bad for us for the reasons you outlined. I was responding from my bed 2 min after waking up so missed to outline the scenario of US/China deal. So at the end I see risks and more risks for us. I think we will run out of luck moving forward.
        Trump will be happy to stick a big one in our backside as payback for the role our idiot Alex D played in the Russia, Russia, Russia role.

      • I am hoping that the LNP victory will inspire confidence in the capital market and rocket AUD to the north of 80c, if only temporarily.

      • TripleBeamMiracleDream

        so wait… our banks borrow overseas $2T @ 2% and our RB sets rate @ 1.5%, aren’t we already @ -.05? Why can rates be cut when we are technically negative already? I’m new…

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I tend to the view that the main electoral lesson out of last night – which I found hilarious at some levels – is that

      1. House prices can never go down in nominal terms.
      2. No gift to any section of Australian society (eg franking credits) can ever be taken away.
      3. Younger Australians don’t yet count (and thats anyone under about 55 if you ask me)
      4. All is fair in the trashing of Australian society in pursuit of the above

      From here I do find myself wondering though if ScoMo may turn down the taps on immigration now that he has a mandate for the lowered ‘cap’ – but beyond that it is the grab bag of economic handouts and economic policy deformities he has run with (which for mine has been surprisingly little). Basically I see last nights result as indicating that the people of Australia havent yet decided they like the ALP enough to vote for them.

      I dont think the government is popular, just that the opposition was ultimately less so.

      I cant really see them having an easier passage for legislation……and a nation reliant on iron ore coal and gas will find that the driving buyer for those is likely to taper off purchases at some point, and will need to generate some sort of extra earning capacity

      • Basically humans are crap at fixing anything until after the disaster.

        After an economic crash we night have a chance to reform.

        We’ve now proven multiple times we are incapable of any reform while times are still relatively good.

        Eventually everything will go wrong. Maybe soon maybe not. But you can bank on nothing changing before that.

      • You summed it up perfectly.

        “From here I do find myself wondering though if ScoMo may turn down the taps on immigration now that he has a mandate for the lowered ‘cap’” – Nope. Impossible to turn tap off on immigration without crashing the RE and above all Scomo represents the RE lobby. Plus it wasn’t a core (no sarc but really mean it) promise anyway. He mentioned it more like rather than campaigning hard on such policy.

      • 2. No gift to any section of Australian society (eg franking credits) can ever be taken away.

        So if UBI is put in, it can not be taken away! 😁

        That is why Alaska has had it since 1982 and not even right wing politicians dare remove it.

      • Keep immigration levels as-is, but instead of importing poor Indian men, why don’t we import South Americans, Ukranians, Poles, Russians, Romanians? Heck even Thais, Vietnamese, Phillipinos.

        Change the make-up of immigration towards Christian/Buddhist White/LightBrown women and no one will give a damn. You’ll increase the fertility rate and lead to more big houses being sold!

      • TripleBeamMiracleDream

        Love the whole bread and circus, the current schlemiel’s will be left holding poop-bags and the other side of the mirror got to warn the plebs about definite changes occurring in around 3 years.

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      So the fake Christian beat fake Labor and the fake Greens. He will do everything to reflate the leaking bubble and there will be some moderate success in stabilizing the New Normal, but it won’t last the full term. The crushing of wages that conintinued Big Straya plane loads of third world workers and visa workers and students will undermine wages even faster and put up living costs of the resident population. The lack of good manufacturing means that the process of pumping has to continually accelerate over the medium and longer term. The international situation will not help as the US takes on China’s parasitic mercantilist pirate economy head on. Making it worse is that middle class families are going to be continually squeezed and life for their kids trying to get a decent career or job in this brothel of a third world economy is going to get progressively get harder and harder and harder. The continual crapification of Australia’s education system and the value of its qualifications to support the FIRE sector is going to become symbolic of this process and is going to escalate to screaming point. And in the end, everything they do to pump the bubble economy is going to subprime it to death and make its final collapse apocalyptic. Even going ahead with the highly automated Adani mine is going to cave global coal prices and shut down profitable mines in Australia. Australia is going to be broke, its currency will collapse to nothing, unemployment and especially underemployment will soar to enormous levels and the fake Christian and his big end of town mates will be the villians of the piece. But for now, everything will seem sweet.

      Looking forward to it. This is exactly the result we need so as to rebuild real labor will the Big End of Town party scumbags destroys its credibility. Forever and ever. Amen.

    • In my mind dropping AUD supports house prices. It brings more money on the current account side which means more money available somewhat to the stretched household sector and business sectors locally. Sure costs of foreign goods go up, but that reduces demand as well for those and means less leakage externally overall. It also supports potential foreign demand for housing and our university “cheap” degrees as exports, gives our farmers a bit of a kick and so on. And it punishes the typical inner city young person going on their next Bali, India, etc holiday while buying their next gadget online marginally encouraging them to employ that money locally often on a house deposit. In the end the more insular our economy and the lower the dollar the more the government has control over it and the less foreign events impact us.

      • Very few foreigners come here to study. They enroll in courses in order to get permanent residency. Hence why I think this policy will change in favour of attracting immigrants with even more money and make it compulsory for new immigrants to buy a house/apartment on arrival. The only way to prop up RE. It will attract lot of drug dealers but I doubt this gov cares.

    • All things tried by bipartisan support in US, Ireland, spain, UK, …. not so long ago and yet nothing worked good enough to prevent the crash …
      If anything Libs deserve economy collapse under their watch
      Unfortunately, thanks to out failed voting system, Labor will benefit from that in three years

  2. I am a Labor type of person, so if Labor can return to it’s purpose I will support it through thick and thin.

    The result is great for Real Labor LNP will soon wished they had lost.

    Sad for EP and other Grass Roots supporters.

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      Sad also for taxpayers who have funded for 16 years franking credit refund “pensioners” – the “refund” rort will now live forever.

      • Franking credits needed to be grandfathered – just like negative gearing.

        In 2013, Bowen tried to kill novated leasing abruptly. It really should have been grandfathered.

        No abrupt changes please, we are psychopathic baby boomers.

      • Bowen’s policy to address the so-called rort was an inept brainfart. He pinned his ego to it and refused to listen to logical arguments which pointed out the real issue. Shorten and Bowen figured people were too dumb to work out the implications (many still were), and figured (correctly, to a point) that it was an easy envy card to play.

        To the extent that votes were lost due to this policy, Shorten and Bowen only have themselves to blame.

      • No need to worry, soon no Australian company would be paying much or any dividends

      • Retirees in industry funds would have still got other people’s money for their franking credits under Labor.

        Labor favouritism would have lived forever.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Maybe there’s a chance…

      If we get a change.org petition up to have the story of the last five weeks and last night’s election ending rewritten by a group of writers that are actually competent we might get a different result?

      Edit: Sorry. Journalists. I meant joooournalists.

      Apologies to those still suffering GoT trauma.But you should have learned from Lost.

    • The upside is that its no longer verboten to speak about immigration online. You can say now that if Labor want to win in future, they need to cut immigration, and not get downvoted.

      Lefties can be wedged between their desire for climate change action and preference for open borders. I think they will drop open borders mass immigration if it means everything else.

      I think even the oldies will give up their housing perks if they can see clearly that it will mean wealth transferred to their kids – if NG and CGT reform was coupled with an intense lowering of immigration and restriction of non-citizens from owning land.

      The attitude from the boomers was definitely ‘we’ll be taxed more to pay for immigrants and refugees’. How can you sacrifice for that?

      • TripleBeamMiracleDream

        “I think even the oldies will give up their housing perks if they can see clearly that it will mean wealth transferred to their kids ”
        this. absolutely not. it’s not even about the perks or even the money at this point (that was never on the table anyway) they literally want to burn the next 3 generation just to be “right”. Its proto-psychopathic flailing over ego-loss. Future generations, a non-factor.

  3. Hanno Son of Bomilcar

    What do you expect when you run a dodgy charisma-less backroom alien man for prime minister?

  4. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Said Zali would win all along (knew first hand of her determination), but don’t agree with her policies so which way will she lean now. that the federal outcome has had its miracle/

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Doing that would be in her own interests but the wrath of the three helping factions may cause her grief. Glad the onion eaters gone though.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Labor would love to get Jackie lambie on board.
        I think they have made offers, but she is her own woman.
        This Steggles Sheila in the other hand will definitely end up back with the Libs or out if politics by next election.

    • She is Tones without negativity.
      Plus it seems Libs are going to have majority so they will not need Zali at all. I think they are ahead in enough seats to get 76-77.

    • She will lean… into the waves at manly beach
      forcing down ocean levels as Australia’s ‘climate change ambassador’
      The oceans oblivious as they continue their slow 20cm every 100 years rise as they have since the last ice age melt 11,700 years ago.

      As our coal exports continue to increase under the Morrison Dutton goverment.

      Steggal will be a useless & totally inept powerless independent elected by a swill of socialist infected northern beaches younger people climate alarmists who live in an ABC fed bubble of delusion.
      And she will be gone next term as the people of warrringah realise what a dud & silly choice a narcissist ski boarder sham she was.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        eki, correct, there is no such thing as climate stability, there is a theory that Bubonic Plaque of 1347–1352 was exacerbated by climate change.

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        For the liberals having Tony voted out and gaining a majority is a complete win.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Zeke was the snow boarder.
        She gave an identical wave winning skiing as electorate.

    • The people of Warringah got sold a bridge. Instead of having a senior figure like Abbott who could pick up the phone and speak to any minister any time they now have a nobody who’ll have no voice or influence. After 25 years of relevance, Warringah just bought itself insignificance.

      • You know, for Australia, that’s not a bad thing. Sydney already has enough influence. Tony was lucky to hold the seat for 25 years given the changing demographics in that area.

  5. It is going to be hard for the LNP, with the new make up of the Senate, to get anything of substance through. It is going to be another 3 years that nothing really happens.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Any time that the Govt can’t do much is a good thing as most of what they do is usually a catastrophe.

      • You’re in the wrong social class Dominic! They get plenty done for their cronies, quick-smart about it, too!

    • At the moment:
      LNP – 33 + 1 in doubt but ahead in Vic
      Labor – 26 + 1 in doubt but ahead in Qld
      Greens – 9
      Central Alliance – 2
      ONP – 1 + 1 in doubt but ahead in Qld
      Corey Bernardi – 1
      Jacqui Lambi – 1

      Even though LNP have picked up seats, they have come from right wing parties anyway. The senate just as impotent.

    • This is the best case scenario.
      House prices started falling under LNP in July 2017. This was:
      1. Before the royal commission was even a thing
      2. Before threat pf labour taking away NG was a realistic idea in people’s minds
      3. While FHB grants were well and alive
      4. CG discount still there

      And in another month it will be 2 straight years of falls. Economy looks far more dire now than 2 years ago with a trade war impacting China.. where we earn from.

      Changing absolutely nothing is going to deliver a housing downturn just as the last two years have. Labour and their crazy ideas might have thrown a spanner in the works. We are better off with LNP just holding this baby till the end.

      For those claiming that LNP now suddenly can do a whole bunch of things to prop up house prices.. i repeat… House prices have been falling under the liberal govt for almost 2 years. And they havent been doing it yet. I am going to be so glad this myth of “govt can control a housing crash” will be put to bed. At least it will bring back some dignity to all those other govts across the globe that couldnt stop theirs…
      Labour was really paying lip service to fair australia anyway. LNP will deliver it with a housing crash that will transfer wealth from the generation that has wealth tied up in housing to the next generations that are locked out. That will actually result in a fairer australia without an uncapped long term parent visa scheme that destroys medicare and our standard of living.

      • Scummo was somewhat constrained by the election in what he could do to reflate housing. Now with the election done he is off the hook. As the ‘great economic manager’ he has to save housing

      • Please. He was the treasurer before that and I doubt Malcolm would have said no.
        If it was up to governments to save housing when it gets to this gigantic size of a bubble, none would have popped.
        Also dont forget, now he has a mandate to deliver on that surplus in a year’s time…. how are you going to save housing when you are trying to save? Whatever policy must be minimal cost. Good luck saving this thing on a thin budget when consumers tapped out 2 years ago.

      • ChameraMEMBER

        I agree. There’s a lot of people writing that everything will turn around suddenly. They are the same people that have said that at various points over the last two years. It’s looking for data to support the narrative that house prices will bottom and recover. The latest ‘data’ is the election upset. But I agree all the leading indicators pointing to continued weakness in consumer spending, and confidence will be unchanged. In fact we are just on the cusp of unemployment starting to increase on the back of the construction boom ending.

  6. A great win for the Murdoch media who overpowered the ABC and the other city effete left wing socialists media control.

    A great win for Australians who rejected climate alarmism and voted for Coal & Peter Dutton. QLD coal and anti immigration won this for Morrison.

    A great win where Morrison thanked Abbott for his leadership as PM for the liberals in gaining power and pointedly didn’t once mention Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Pyne and the other traitorous scum that were the root cause of the past liberals issues.

    A great win for Australia- almost our last chance actually in rejecting the Labor vote buying 3 million elderly migrant sick & useless at $500 a year visa plan – all the Muslim, Chinese & Indian migrant enclaves upset & angry their bribes & vote buying didn’t work.

    A great win for Tony Abbott also in a way – he will now be our new US ambassador replacing Hockey before swapping with Brandis to be the UK high commissar.
    (And Downer btw who they all hate is currently being investigated in his Clinton foundation entanglement & used as a useful idiot in the Brennan Halper Mifsud s Papadopolous frameup).

    A great win to see Shorten resigning promptly, but even the knives from Tanya Plibersek & her cabal of fellow plotteers went into Bill’s back – 6 months earlier than planned.
    Wong & Plibersek will fight it out, Albanese has too much taint on him from the Thai massage & other scandals and that means a hard left fanatical labor party in opposition for at least 2 more terms.

    A great win to see Clive Palmer never got a seat in the senate and was also skillfuly used by Morrison a useful idiot in spending $33 million of his own money (net after $2.75 per voter subsidy) in creating liberal natuon preference flows.

    A great win to see Barnaby back as the next nationals leader in waiting.

    All round a great win as the liberal nationals were returned as the least worse choice to govern the country as we fall into a long externally induced (Trump China trade rebalance displacing Australia primary exports) recession.

      • Malcom must be very upset.

        The best image was the labor party faithful crying in the gutter & screaming at the sky.

        And the shock at the ABC as they realised Murdoch had it in the bag.

        Why did Shorten lose the unloseable election?
        He thought Australia was Victoria and ignored Murdoch at his peril. Thats why he lost.

        I’m looking forward to Plibersek as opposition leader and Wong as deputy – they will ensure the labor party goes hard left radicalised & mad.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        tonydd, you can have my mirror it’s fine I can’t use it because this old guy keeps standing in my way.

  7. Jumping jack flash

    It comes down to doing nothing was deemed as more favorable for the country than actually doing something.

    Everyone must have turned English – love a good whinge but wouldn’t change anything when given the chance.

    • This is forever silence the claim that the electorate wants oppositions to have a policy agenda.

      Labor’s agenda of fairness for low paid workers and winding back tax rorts was smashed out of the room with baseball bats.

      • The problem is that elections are somewhat binary. It only takes a majority to think one party is slightly better than the other to come up with these results – its hard to draw conclusions about whether all those policies were “rejected”. All you say is that more of Labor was rejected than the Liberal side. I suspect if they didn’t go hard with NG/CGT, franking credit reform and elderly migrant visa’s then they may of actually got in with their wages/penalty rates/etc platform. Anecdotally a lot of people I know are scared of a housing crash and how it will affect their jobs – any side that is sympathetic to them (even if it can’t be delivered) gets votes.

      • Tell me how importing massive numbers of low/doubtfully skilled workers is looking after the low paid workers we already have?

    • Are you forgetting the English voted for Brexit? But yes whinging Poms are like Australian’s they will complain a lot but still vote Team 1 or 2. Not minor parties.

  8. SAP Something About Population

    Don’t listen n don’t matter, same as ALP. Mixing up good policy for good politics is the oldest of errors the righteous are particularly vulnerable to it

    • Immigration will be the winner in the next elections. If our economy deteriorates and stop pumping jobs.

    • CanuckDownUnder

      We all know what the SAP problem is, I’ve been telling them their policies and approach are a complete dud for ages and look where they are in the Senate results. 0.5% with the nobodies.

      Time for a leadership spill. I want to put forward mikemb, sorry ekimmb, are you available?

    • SAP need to be bold and become RIP – Reduce Immigration Party. Just get a senate seat and negotiate a reduction in a specific visa type for each senate vote in support of LNPs changes in the Upper House.

      One vote in support in return for reducing the list of skilled occupations on the temporary visa list. Another vote to reduce student visas. Another vote to stop Permanent Residency visas being given from outside of Australia, before someone has even worked and proven their worth to the country and labour market. Another vote to reduce the maximum age for Permanent Residency. Another vote in return for scrapping Elderly Parental Visas.

      • Zero Immigration Party (ZIP) or Australia For Australians (AFA) would be even better i reckon. No doubt some enterprising SJW victim mongers will come up with witty alternatives for the acronyms (e.g. Australian Fascist Association) but meh.

        edit: even Australians For Australia sounds halfway sensible

      • Not sure about that. SAP aren’t about zero immigration, and therefore, aren’t really about Australia being ‘for Australians’.

  9. I wonder if Labor has worked out why it lost? Has the rampant SJW propaganda turned into a bad thing yet?

    (1) Off the charts white collar crime and fraud – but hey! they are pro-sjw, and love virtue signalling, so go big business. Diversity is our strength, as long as it lets us import cheaper labor into the country without paying taxes. Rashsist!

    (2) Rampant immigration fraud and illegal immigration – but its all for the the universities and imports people who can be converted into progressive adherents – so Progressive! Did you pray to diversity, feminism and trannies today? Also, normal folks getting poorer, no worries, import new consumers!

    (3) Childless SJW harpies telling the rest of us how to run our lives – Plib-face saying childcare workers work as hard a metalworkers. Ok. How many childcare workers die in the course of their jobs? And the lies about the pay gap, and lies about discrimination against women, when every single lived experience is the exact opposite.

    Maybe people would be ok voting for Labor, if they were you know, pro-Labor.

    Not pro-SJW / culture war nonsense. Not a mouthpiece for the Progressive cult. Not this ‘diversity is our strength’ ad infinitum lies, while replacing the population with PTSD middle easterners with a penchant for suicide bombings. Not this ‘men===women’, except where it benefits women bigotry.

    And definitely not this progressive caste system – this intersectional matrix nonsense, where elites and the technocrats their progressive courtesans tell the rest of us what to do, while the middle-class deplorable’s are being slowly reduced to poverty and untouchables incels are people who simply grew up poor/regional and happen to be born male.

    Maybe Labor should walk away from the Progressive cult, with its Repent! The End Is Nigh! climate crazies, and its hundreds of genders (how many angels fit on top of a pinhead?) religious nonsense, and whatever perversion is in – have they finished with creating the eunuch caste (trannies), and have now moved on to pedo-behavior and child drag queens? Maybe stop the wholesale takeover of the education system by religious cults, whether death-cult (islamic), pedo-cult (catholic) or vag-cult (progressive).

    Maybe Labor should worry about working people for once?

    Adani was such a beautiful example. No one particularly likes it. On the numbers, its probably not going to get built because it is unlikely to be profitable without massive subsidy. Its not great for the environment.

    But did it not occur to a single person, that there is f’all jobs up there, and the people there are desperate for their kids not to turn into meth-addicts and/or suicide, and maybe providing some options (at least the hope of an option) might be a good thing?

    Of course not, those god-damn racists up there, stupid rednecks, don’t they understand the climate virtue signalling is oh-so-important? What small talk will we make at Davos next year? Good-riddance, lets replace them with immigrants slave labor @ $2/hour. That’ll learn ’em.

    And if the people up there think this might not good, we can mock them on Insiders for being farm boys and coal-miners, and ‘I’ll take that as a comment’. I mean, what kind of reprobate wears an akubra anymore?

    • Why Bill Shorten lost.

      Rupert Murdoch proved more powerful than the ABC & other left wing media in deciding government.

      This was prophetic & proved 💯% correct.

      Washington Post By Richard Glover 
      May 15, 2019 at 7:57 PM EDT
      “In the home country of Rupert Murdoch, can a politician attack News Corp. and still win an election?
      The answer to that question could come as early as Saturday.
      In Australia, the opposition Labor Party (my comment: who control the public broadcaster ABC & other left wing aligned media) is poised to seize victory, but faced a fierce campaign from the Murdoch press.

      In the past, Labor leaders have tried to broker a truce with Murdoch, the Australian-born mogul whose company owns large chunks of the U.S. media, but also an estimated 59 percent of Australia’s newspapers by market share.

      Two recent Labor prime ministers — Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd — both visited Murdoch in the United States, bending a knee in the hope of avoiding outright hostility.
      Not this time. Bill Shorten, the current Labor leader (my comment: emboldened by the Victorian State Government political victory) chose not to make the usual overtures.”

      And so the Labor party lost share in every state except Victoria.

      • No one cares about that old fossil, and WaPo is even more uninformed than he is. Please, what was the prediction of the Murdoch papers/tv? Did they think ScoMo was going to squeak in, or were they hedging their bets?

        Did you miss Annabel Crabb musing about how the media could be so wrong? Did fake – news win again? My money is both ScoMo/Shorten are confused as to what happened.

        Your explanation is like saying Fox won the election for Trump. You miss the forest for the trees. Globally, the progressive/globalist cult is being swept aside, and nationalist-populists are winning. ScoMo happened to be in the less-wrong side on this one, though only marginally.

        Having the whiff of an SJW smell, is a death sentence to any politician going forward. Shorten had Plib-face and Wong. Hardcore SJW’s, with vast reserves of arrogance, chips on shoulder, and stupidity to match. Convinced of their ‘correctness’, and moral righteousness.

        First politician to call for an immigration moratorium, will win the next 20 years. To bad Labor did not want to be seen as ‘racist’ – its going to cost them everything.

      • T – (below)
        If you ever read this – I agree.
        It was the rejection of a hard left socialist climate change nutters / open borders millions of migrant elderly, idiot Bowen / Cruella Deville Plibersek / victim of affirmative action Wong etc – that saw Morrison win.

        But that’s not how the ABC & Guardian ‘experts’ will rationalise the labor loss.
        They will ‘blame Murdoch’.

        Re if Morrison slams the brakes on immigration the liberal nationals will be in power for 20 years.

        Yes, all he has to do is call a Royal Commission into the systemic visa fraud – 2.561 million TR now with 1.4 million working & living illegally / something I have commented on before in this forum.

      • Sure – i misunderstood what you were saying. My bad. Yes – they will ‘blame Murdoch’.

      • TripleBeamMiracleDream

        lol, the LNP’s gonna import all and sundry to keep Mom’s ego aloft. We gonna get syndicate money, thugs, triads, drug dealers, blackstone-loans/derivatives, northernrocklike parasite banks, paramilitary, black (crypto) money, terrorist dough and CCP surveillance incentive payments to keep your dad smiling and your granddad rolling in his grave.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Yup, everything goes in cycles. Perhaps the backlash against the ludicrous progressive movement has finally begun. Let’s hope so.

      Curious to know how the migrant population voted. Perhaps the hard-working ones are really not that enamoured with the idea of having to give away even more of the sweat off their backs. And when wages are stagnant, that’s even more understandable.

    • TripleBeamMiracleDream

      with such a diversity of jobs on the horizon (1x fantasy pit run by 10 robots) the youth of NQ should rejoice and immediately sharpen-up for long term employment prospects. Reducing the prospects of NQ youths to pitworker, would make anybody grab a pipe immediately – if unfortunate enough to be born among the perpetually self-sabotaging/flagellating north of this state. Its equal to saying, “learn to code”.

  10. Labor can go and suck eggs. This was the easiest election to win, instead they blew it on doubling the refugee intake, overseas welfare, electric cars, migrant parent visas, increasing immigration, changes to trust accounts, the list goes on. Haha even the greens went nowhere. People want real policies not this fake feelgood bs. Unfortunately liberal doesnt have any real policies either. One thing I have learnt is to bet on the opposite party according to opinion and exit polls it is a sure win. I reckon Trumpy will win a second term too now.

    The stupidest thing about all this is that labor will have no idea why they lost and in response will put an even hollower character as the leader and shift even more towards the fake greens ensuring another loss at the next election.

    • Greens increased their vote and Labor lost votes. LNP lost votes too. More people voted further left or right than the last election.

      • kannigetMEMBER

        According to the AEC, you know the people who actually count the votes… with 74.6% counted there was a swing away from the Liberals and Labour, a small swing to the Nationals and a combined swing away from all major parties. Not enough to get many seats for them but enough to make an interesting result. The LNP won it on preferences, and as most of the ‘sideshow alley’ parties are right wing, the preferences flowed back to them. Another couple of percent swing away for the majors and we may have had a minority government with 5 or six loud mouthed nutters deciding everything.

        This result has so many parallels to the trump victory, no one saw it coming, it was due to a rebellion against social justice issues and fear of jobs all disguised in nationalist rhetoric. Trump claimed he was all about Make America Great Again, but he really is all about better competitive advantage to himself and his cronies. His Trade war looks to be making some impact but he risks sparking open conflict and he is not someone anyone would want in control when that starts.

        The LNP are no different, talk closed borders while importing more immigrants than anyone else has done. They feather their own nest and dont care about the long term viability of the country.

        In the end, fear of immigrants and a “dont come here telling us what we can do” backlash ended any chances in QLD and as there was not enough swing in NSW or Victoria to make up for that loss we have the result we have. The Interesting thing is that the current figures from the AEC have the seats unchanged from the last parliament. Still 24% of votes to count, and as I suspect they are the prepoll votes we could see a small change but it could go anyway.

      • TripleBeamMiracleDream

        Further to this, should we really let people vote for a week? should voting be compulsory? Should a national vote be a gathering of voters, that view democracy as a worth spending part of a day participating in? or should voting be a compulsory event that one ‘gets out of the way’ sometime during the week under the threat of mammonic retribution?

      • fish – Greens swing was -0.2% in Lower House voting, but +2.6% in Senate voting.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        fish – Greens swing was -0.2% in Lower House voting, but +2.6% in Senate voting.

        +1.2% in QLD, which is interesting.

    • It’s clearly the dumb peoples fault. We failed to realise that they know better than we do and we should just listen to them and tell us what is right for us and our families.

      • Very few concessional or winning speeches showing humility. Our pollies are a pack of spoilt brats.

      • We are all deplorables, haven’t you heard.

        What would uneducated rubes like us know about the Great Moral Arc of History. After all, the Great Moral Arc of History tends Progressive doesn’t it?

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      In the era of ‘live by the polls, due by the polls’. When the poll is inaccurate , you’ll get the wrong policy.

      A better starting point is to figure out what the party stands for.

    • Bowen needs to walk the plank too. The arrogance of “if you dont like our policies dont vote for us”. Sold.

      • Agreed. The problem was not with their policies, but with their salesmanship. You can’t afford to be rude and alienate people; not when you’re on 53%. Even on climate change: The cost of non action is greater than the cost of action? Marketing 101: Sell a Positive message; don’t say that X is worse than Y; say that Y is better than X. Finally, it was Burke who lifted the caps on foreign ownership of high-rise apartments.

      • Bowen should probably be taking at as much of a hit for this failure as Shorten. If he got his ego out of the way he could a probably do some good. A man of very questionable intelligence.

  11. SweeperMEMBER

    Now comes the part where journalists tell us why we voted for Morrison. Because we didn’t want change, because immigration. Because… blah blah blah.

    No it’s because of you. You empty headed journalists got Morrison elected. You did. You ran Morrison’s campaign of fear and ignorance. You did. Well done, the worst media in the world.

    • Blame Rupert
      Blame Rupert as you scream at the sky.

      Here’s your cliched ‘answer’ that the ABC & guardian will tell you in ‘what to think’ in a day or so.

      Why Bill Shorten lost.
      How Rupert Murdoch proved more powerful than the ABC & other left wing media in deciding government.

      Washington Post By Richard Glover 
      May 15, 2019 at 7:57 PM EDT
      “In the home country of Rupert Murdoch, can a politician attack News Corp. and still win an election?
      The answer to that question could come as early as Saturday.
      In Australia, the opposition Labor Party (my comment – who control the public broadcaster ABC & other left wing aligned media) is poised to seize victory, but faced a fierce campaign from the Murdoch press.

      In the past, Labor leaders have tried to broker a truce with Murdoch, the Australian-born mogul whose company owns large chunks of the U.S. media, but also an estimated 59 percent of Australia’s newspapers by market share.

      Two recent Labor prime ministers — Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd — both visited Murdoch in the United States, bending a knee in the hope of avoiding outright hostility.
      Not this time. Bill Shorten, the current Labor leader (emboldened by the Victorian State Government political victory) chose not to make the usual overtures.”

      And so the Labor party lost share in every state except Victoria.
      -/-
      See – it was all decided by Rupert.
      Australians rejected climate alarmism, and mass intakes of sick elderly migrants because Rupert said so.

      • who reads RM’s paper for other then the sport and cars… you have to pay and most people won’t. I’ve never heard anyone barrack for RM. I think his whole empire is close to collapse as well. the alp lost it with batsh1t crazy policies like the massive parents visas and more immigration. those of us that are trapped in traffic with f all other way to get to work get smacked while they hover in canberra or inner city. try to get to a hospital etc. schools are all stretched. I really did think he’d win given all the polls, but like the US it shows how biassed they are. anyway we’re f….d either way. if we thought any of the pollies had all the answers then we’re the fools.

    • Blame the media for encouraging a two party corrupt system and deliberately shutting down any new party that tries to develop. We need to establish more parties like other countries have. Don’t blame the media for labor’s woes they brought it on themselves. It won’t be Rupert’s fault when labor put in another hollow leader and lose the next unloseable election.

  12. BabundaMEMBER

    Australians determined the country was better as it is.

    Wrong. They swung away from both majors. Almost equally. They deserted to Palmer and Pauline. That’s not an electorate comfortable with where it is.

    • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

      This, mandatory preferential voting is a massive heat sink. Pretty much any other system would have led to the majors being decimated over the last few cycles.

    • This. Elevating Sco Mo as some kind of Liberal legend is laughable.

      This country is in grave danger, but we seem to be incapable of voting for any change.

      “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable” – JFK.

  13. SweeperMEMBER

    Well done Paul Keating on handing Rupert Murdoch veto power over all election results. Really well done.

    • Or maybe blame Bill Shorten for his nativity in thinking Australia was Victoria and the labor left wing ABC & socialist rags & social media could better Murdoch.

      If Shorten had crawled to Murdoch like Hawke, Keating, Howard and every other successful PM since – then Shorten would be Prime Minister now.

      This was prophetic.

      Washington Post By Richard Glover 
      May 15, 2019 at 7:57 PM EDT
      “In the home country of Rupert Murdoch, can a politician attack News Corp. and still win an election?
      The answer to that question could come as early as Saturday.
      In Australia, the opposition Labor Party (my comment – who control the public broadcaster ABC & other left wing aligned media) is poised to seize victory, but faced a fierce campaign from the Murdoch press.

      In the past, Labor leaders have tried to broker a truce with Murdoch, the Australian-born mogul whose company owns large chunks of the U.S. media, but also an estimated 59 percent of Australia’s newspapers by market share.

      Two recent Labor prime ministers — Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd — both visited Murdoch in the United States, bending a knee in the hope of avoiding outright hostility.
      Not this time. Bill Shorten, the current Labor leader (emboldened by the Victorian State Government political victory) chose not to make the usual overtures.”

      And so the Labor party lost share in every state except Victoria.

  14. Labour just didn’t get it. After brexit, 5-star, trump, yellow vests…… you would have thought they got the point. You think they get the point now that they lost? No.

  15. https://www.patreon.com/posts/26960944

    ADV Election Summary: How Labor lost Middle Australia

    I’m sure like most of you – you are scratching your head to explain what happened last night, and how Bill Shorten lost the Federal Election (when only months ago most people thought he would romp it home in a landslide).

    Read on and enjoy my thoughts:

    1. Climate Change isn’t the #1 issue

    Contrary to what the main stream media we feeding the population – climate change isn’t the number one issue facing Australians. Unfortunately those people in the ‘politics industry’ live in a bubble where they somehow think if they are talking about it – people around the country must be talking about it too. To me – the number one issue in Australia is our rampant population growth, leading to anemic wages growth, and significant rises to the cost of living (in particular housing and energy).

    What the Labor Party was essentially asking people to do was to ‘pay more tax’ whilst also accepting ‘more people’ (through it’s Big Australia @ 50 million policy). The prospect that outside of some inner urban seats people would vote to either lose more jobs or pay more tax (through the introduction of climate change measures) without any guarantee of higher incomes is the problem.

    Yes – Climate change is happening, but Australia is not a big polluter, nor do we have the economic clout to show leadership on this issue (given our budget situation and record low wages growth). To put it simply – Labor’s constant bleating about climate change fell on deaf ears across most of Middle Australia

    2. Policy agenda was too complex and too aggressive

    Labor tried to do too much at once. Having such a broad policy agenda set them up for criticism on too many fronts – and didn’t give them enough oxygen in the media narrative to sell the case for change. The whole Franking Credits policy is a classic example of this – where Labor set themselves up to have a fight with baby boomers, the very people they needed to convince to vote Labor in order to secure governments. Had they focused on other policy initiatives (in particular around jobs and wages growth) – and parked the fight on Franking Credits until their second year in government – it would have been much smarter political strategy.

    At the risk of being rude – Australian’s do not like complex policy. Most people in middle Australia do not have the IQ to understand it in detail anyway. Middle Australia responds to three word slogans – Tony Abbott proved this. Campaigning by the Liberal Party on Retiree Tax, Death Tax, Housing Tax and keeping it simple for the lower IQ’s in middle Australia is part of reason Labor lost the election.

    3. Right policies (in some cases) but wrong time.

    Some of the policies that Labor took to the election (especially around negative gearing and franking credits) were the right policy to help bring the budget back to balance – but they were executed at the wrong time. Why on earth would any political party want to change negative gearing rules at a time where property prices are already 10%+ down in our capital cities? Everyone knows that removing negative gearing is going to put downward pressure on house prices, and trying to introduce this change at a time the property market is already suffering is madness.

    A person’s house is generally their biggest asset – no one wants to see a reduction in its value (especially the 65% of people in Australia that either own a house outright or are paying it off). Don’t get me wrong, we do have to change our negative gearing policies – but it should be introduced at a time where the housing market is going up 10%+ per annum (like it was between 2010-2016) so people didn’t feel as big of a threat to the impact on their own personal wealth. Like the above with franking credits – I would have parked this initiative for a year or two until such a time the property market had bounced back into positive territory.

    If Labor ran it’s election campaign on the simple slogan “we will grow your wages” and parked some of its bigger agenda items until we were in better economic times – it would have likely secured government.

    4. Bill Shorten was the wrong leader.

    I’ve said this for months to anyone who cares to listen – Bill Shorten is a drab speaker with the personality of a wet rag. I have no doubt he is an intellectual man and also a great party man – but he doesn’t connect with Australian people. His speeches are often scripted, and this was no truer then when he spoke after the passing of Bob Hawke. You would think in a moment like that – Bill Shorten could say a few words to the media off the cuff – but instead he still read from a prepared script. During the live debates on TV with Scott Morrison – he was holding onto paper notes and reading scripts – whereas Morrison was speaking unscripted and often in simpler tones that more easily resonate with middle Australia.

    To put it simply – if you walked into most pubs in Australia and asked the drinks “if you had to choose to have a beer with Bill Shorten or Scott Morrison – which one would you choose?” – I suspect a majority would choose to have a beer with Morrison.

    The Preferred PM opinion polls for Shorten were always shocking. No one has ever become Prime Minister with a preferred PM approval rate of less than 30% during an election campaign while in opposition. It’s important to remember that Kim Beazley lost elections whilst being a preferred PM over John Howard. Labor tragics kept telling me for weeks “Oh, it doesn’t matter who the leader is – people vote for policy” – which of course is a load of bullshit. The number one rule of business is “people buy off people”, and the number one rule of politics is “people vote for people”.

    Shorten was on the nose during the Gillard & Rudd years (being the man behind knifing two sitting Prime Ministers), and he should have been disposed of after losing the last election to Malcolm Turnbull. The fact that Labor powerbrokers seemed to think that Bill Shorten was the best person to lead the party is a complete insult to some of the other talented people within the Labor movement.

    5. Labor has only ever won government when it’s done well in Queensland.

    The reason that Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister was because he resonated with Queenslanders (whilst also doing well around other parts of the country). No Labor Government has ever won parliament without winning a swathe of seats in Queensland. This was never going to happen this time, with One Nation and United Australia Party picking up significant chunks of the primary vote in Queensland (and the likely preference flows to LNP candidates).

    Queenslanders are an interesting bunch – and you don’t need to look much past Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson to understand that people up north love someone who isn’t afraid to speak their mind, and speak off script. Bill Shorten weak drab crafted messages simply don’t resonate with Queenslanders. Also Labor’s policies were crafted as anti-Queensland.

    In large parts of regional Queensland, mining plays a key role in the prosperity of families. Introduce a carbon price, and stop the Adani project, whilst at the same time more heavily taxing families that earn good money from mining – is a recipe for disaster. We only had to have a look at the worker from the Gladstone Port who was sacked because he challenged Shorten on this very issue. It was another case of Shorten losing focus on middle Australia – particularly in the regions.

    6. People can’t see the difference between The Greens and Labor

    Let’s face it – the Greens and Labor are basically a coalition now. Their policies are the same in many cases – in particular around social causes (such as ‘safe schools’ and ‘transgender rights’). Many voters in middle-Australia have watched Labor lurch further and further to the left in recent years. Middle Australia doesn’t care for transgender rights, or more LGBTQI acceptance.

    They care for jobs, and they care for more money in their pockets. There are swathes of ex-Labor voters in outer-suburbia and the regional areas that voted for Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson because they feel abandoned by Labor’s shift the left to secure Green preferences. Labor’s challenge in the next three years is to secure its own identity again.

    7. Labor are no longer the workers party

    As mentioned above – Labor is supposed to be the workers party. We are experiencing record low wages growth – so where the hell is Labors wages strategy? They had bold policy on negative gearing and franking credits – but no bold policy on how to increase wages!

    Where is the plan like “we will increase public sector wages by 10% per annum for the next 5 years (50% in total) to help kick start wages growth across the private sector”?

    That’s right – nowhere.

    Labor has abandoned it’s position as the workers party for middle Australia, and instead panders to social and globalist causes instead. Labor would not have lost this election if they had a bold strategy about delivering strong wages growth (and left the other policy initiatives on the shelf until later in their term of government).

    8. State Election warning signs

    Labor lost the South Australian election, and Labor also lost the New South Wales election. There have been some warning signs for a while that the Labor brand (outside of ‘inclusive Victoria’) is on the nose around the country.

    With a shadow cabinet comprising of Labor leaders all from inner-urban seats in Melbourne and Sydney – it’s pretty easy to see how they got out of touch with what middle-Australia wanted. They didn’t heed the state election warnings!

    9. New Australians generally vote for conservative parties.

    Finally – and the most important thing to consider is the changing demographics of Australia. Chinese people have conservative values. Middle Eastern people have conservative values. To put it simply – the large majority of new Australian’s coming to Australia (Chinese, Indian, Middle Eastern) do not care about climate change and gay rights. They also hate paying tax (how many of their businesses are cash only!).

    New Australia is changing, and it’s changing for the more conservative. The people who are drawn to this country are largely here to pay as little tax as they can, and milk as much as they can from government at the same time. They generally hate gays, and they don’t understand why climate change is an issue in Australia because they generally arrive from countries with much higher pollution levels! It used to be the case that migrants were much more likely to vote Labor (because they were the workers party), but these days migrants are much more likely to vote Liberal.

    I’ve said this for a long time – but I’m increasingly of the belief that we have reached ‘peak equality’ in Australia – given we increasingly import more and more people from countries with conservative societies.

    So in summary Labor had the following.

    The wrong leader, with the wrong policies, at the wrong time.

    • DominicMEMBER

      The climate change point is an interesting one. I read a piece recently by a fund manager called Charles Gave who, as a hobby, studies manias of various sorts and one of those has been the attention on ‘climate change’ and how support for it built up over the years and really garnered huge momentum. I’m not sure what criteria he uses to measure the interest in the subject but his models/charts suggest it peaked some years ago and in his conclusion he reckons it simply won’t be ‘a thing’ 5 or 10 yrs from now.

      Maybe that’s what we’re seeing at the moment: those with a vested interest in climate change continuing to opine shrilly in any public forum but perhaps speaking to an audience who have become increasingly disinterested (and quite possibly distrusting) in the narrative. While every instance of slightly inclement weather is now blamed on climate change the more tangible effects that were promised like rising sea-levels inundating small island nations has not happened. Certainly a situation to keep an eye on.

      • Couldn’t be further from the truth. In 10 years time we will be facing the impacts at an order of magnitude higher than what we do now, the northern hemisphere will anyway but thats the hemisphere that counts. MB is starting to bring out some of the worst wing nuts on this issue, which isn’t really relevant to Labour election loss.

      • DominicMEMBER

        @Roger / Jason (whatever)
        Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m one of the open-minded types round here.

      • TighterandTighter

        I seem to recall some envoys from these islands where you say there’s no sea level rise, saying, the seas are getting higher. We’re the canaries

        Maybe I am wrong.
        [Not shooting you the messenger, I really like your posts]

    • Thanks for posting this very perceptive comment. I dislike all the major parties, but was inclined to put Labor ahead of the LNP. I thought that they might carry out their promise to reduce temporary immigration, but that open-ended elderly parent visa changed my mind. Wreck Medicare and the welfare state so that Bill Shorten can be PM. Also, although it didn’t affect my vote, the franking credits issue is the wrong fight. It is true that it would mostly hit rich people receiving an unfair advantage, but there would also be collateral damage among people who genuinely have quite modest incomes. I would rather see a system where superannuation in the accumulation phase is not taxed, but withdrawals in the pension phase are fully taxed as normal income. Give people a tax credit for taxes already paid in the accumulation phase and switch over.

  16. To be honest this outcome (LNP winning big) doesn’t surprise me at all.
    I’m sure that most MB regulars are totally confused by this outcome (it was an unwinnable election) which just goes to show the underlying problem with online echo-chambers. All they do is amplifier the resonant signal while everything else gets attenuated and life within the echo chamber takes on a surreal kind of wolf pack like existence.
    In the words of Rudyard Kipling
    Now this is the law of the jungle, as old and as true as the sky,
    And the wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the wolf that shall break it must die.

    As the creeper that girdles the tree trunk, the law runneth forward and back;
    For the strength of the pack is the wolf, and the strength of the wolf is the pack…..

    What was missing from the MB message was the gentrification of western Sydney. The vast majority of today’s Mount Druit voters care more about their net worth than they do about workers rights, they care much more about sustaining / reinvigorating a proven path to wealth (RE investment), than they ever will about the inequity of this “solution”.
    Today’s voters care about getting their kids into a good university far more than they care about the death of the TAFE system, or about quality declines in university education.
    Unfortunately, for most of the population, i suspect that MB’s optics create an image which is completely out of focus…it’s hard to change opinions when the target audience cant understand the text or see the big picture….
    Oh well I guess the good news is that LNP will be in office for the next 3 years as reward (maybe punishment) for their sins over the last 3 years.

    • Fisho

      Mount Druit still vote ALP……the ALP still appeal to the social security crowd if not the aspirational battler.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The big surprise is how wrong the 2PP poll turn out to be : it means the method used by all the big polling firms is deficient, phone polling, face to face, and online polling don’t work anymore. They’ll need to come up with something a lot better.

      • Um, perhaps to start to actually poll?

        in my view polls became just a confirmation bias tool and a good indicator of whom paid for them.

      • Agreed that’s the most worrying change, clearly today the whole sample process is suspect.
        Has one wondering how often Mr Left Hand asked Mr Right Hand his honest opinion.
        More worrying still is the idea that vote decisions are primarily made on the front steps of our local schools.
        I guess we all understand that it’s not really an important vote we are making It’s more like a Pepsi / Coke challenge …can you tell the difference…if so vote for the one that tastes sweeter.

      • I like the coke/pepsi analogy. Actually a lot of americans get confused and mistaken as our right wing is blue and left wing red

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        A lot of of Americans get confused and mistaken as they are ignorant arrogant morons.

    • Was I surprised? Not at all. This looks like a classic case of trying to catch a falling knife.

      After all, an unlosable election for the opposition is the first one after an epic housing bust. Just ask Obama.

    • robert2013MEMBER

      A strange planet you live on fisho. I don’t see cries of surprise on MB, I do in the MSM. Also, the coalition hasn’t had a big win. They will be a minority government. Given Labor’s last minute policy fustercluck (aging parent visas and copying Scummo’s FHB stimulus plan), I am not the least bit surprised things turned out as they did.

  17. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Waiting for Skips under the radar post.
    Ermo must have had a hard night, chin up.

      • Mate, this is good opportunity for you to be heard. Labour must change and start listening to people like you.

      • Mette Frederikson in Denmark is a good case study for Labor to look at, but I suspect they will too afraid to make that kind of move for fear of losing ground to the Greens.

        I do know what you’re up against. One of my friends who is a branch member on the Left faction in a nearby NSW electorate who believes that universal healthcare is a right, even for newly arrived elderly parents of migrants who have contributed little to Australian society.

  18. I *was* traditionally a liberal voter, but was time has gone on I’ve come to realise that if anything I support traditional Labor more and more. I was even prepared to put labor #1, until the migrant parental visa etc. came out.

    What Labor (and their supporters) need to realise is they need to return to their roots. To the working class. Drop all the ex union stooges and SJW Layers. Stop being the globalist elite, change their own policiies, support the real Australia.

  19. Nice comments people but all i want to know is how high it will send to aussie dollar tommorrow morning

  20. Nice to see Sydney house prices extend falls out to 11.2% yoy. Biggest house price falls in Oz recorded history will now belong solely to Morrison.

    • Nah, he’ll blame it on Shorten scarring the investors off… heck, he may even do something right if a chance is to pin the bad effects on Brains Shorten.

      • Looking at the housing forums, the amount bank and property shares have responded to the surprise election win (e.g. mortgage choice went up 16% I think) I think blaming Shorten and Labor sadly may actually be accurate. It was priced in; some may say “mispriced” in. If auction clearance rates bounce from here quickly we can probably attribute a lot of house price weakness to the constant threat from Labor.

  21. Anyone think negative gearing and popular perception sold by ScoMo that Labor will bleed home owners of their equity ATM played a part? Wonder how many labor voters voted Lib only for this desperate reason.

    • Yes I am certain that with the fingers of economic fear starting to creep outwards, the number of voters going for “no risk” scared-of-the-unknown would have grown substantially.

      Ironic that Shorten might have gone better with his set of policies if the economy and house prices were still booming.

    • kannigetMEMBER

      Only SA and NT swung to the Liberals, the Swing away from Liberals everywhere else was the same as the swing away from the ALP. People swung to the nutter right wing parties and the preferences flowed back to the LNP. considereing all the Nutter parties policies seem to be around reduced immigration I think its more likely immigration was the real catalyst.

    • I’d say it played a part definitely. I’ve also heard of swinging voters being tipped to LNP by the treasonous elderly visa policy.

    • I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a huge voting motivation. There has to be a significant proportion of the population very scared right now about their debt levels, dropping house prices and stagnant wages esp given the msm is reporting house price drops and neg equity. So labor was going to give them a wage increase but people might not have trusted they could pull it off but they would decrease house prices. Lnp would be more of the same with no wage increases but hopefully either stop house prices going down or maybe please god get them up again.

      I take from this that house prices are more important than wage increases and that people are really scared of more house prices drops. I hate to think of the fear and stress many people are living under. If house prices continue to go down I think we just got confirmation of how ugly this might get.

      I find myself surprisingly unemotional about the result but I am glad that the lnp will own anything economically that happens in the next 3 years. Does this mean they will finally stop blaming labor for anything bad? They’ve been in power now for 6 years at least we deserve not to hear that again!

      • I felt the same way – apathy perhaps, but also secure in the knowledge that I will not be worse off under either government. I don’t think Morrison has the capacity to stem the bleeding in house prices, and while sentiment may improve I doubt this will overcome the credit squeeze and avoid a recession. I’ve spoken with people who are concerned their small businesses won’t survive if Shorten won, but the reality is that they’re probably going to have just as hard a time regardless of who leads.

        The temp parental visa change was something discussed in many of my social circles which include plenty of first and second generation migrants, who opposed it. Once migrants identify as being Australian, they won’t automatically support a policy that makes them worse off or potentially ruins their quality of life.

      • Pop – you described what I feel and think happened and how I see things will move forward. Interesting times.. But I hate to disappoint you.. be prepared to keep hearing Labour Labour Labour. People are just stupid and now because of massive debt also scared so they will opt to believe in anything as long as that anything gives them a hope that they don’t have to face with the reality of actually having to pay the bill.

        As I said many times before – we were lucky we had the Chinamen bailing us out for few years otherwise the bubble would have burst few years back. I wonder if Scomo finds another country to replace China – and not India is not going to cut it.

        Let’s see if banks will start issuing multi-million dollar loans to our Uber drivers and our Barristers and if that will work. Game of greater fool only works if there is actually a greater to fool to bail you out. Otherwise one ends up holding the bag.

      • It’s interesting to consider voting preference as an individual decision which individuals make for their own benefit as opposed to a collective decision which individuals make for the betterment of the collective.
        My father said that he went to war with a ship full of individualists all optimizing their own experience and came home on a ship that made decisions for the collective. On a ship, with that many soldiers on-board, their is limited bunk space, limited fresh water, limited space above deck and limited food (and a limit for how long the hot food stays hot) …there are all sorts of limits/constraints which the individual can optimize on their own benefit Or conversely all sorts of opportunities to find the best outcome for the collective.
        In dad’s opinion this Individual vs collective consciousness carried over after the war and was the real legacy of the great generation…of course that’s all ancient history so today everyone is in expert in how to optimize their own lot in life with little appreciation for the collective optimization that needs to be part of their individual decision making process.

      • “of course that’s all ancient history so today everyone is in expert in how to optimize their own lot in life with little appreciation for the collective optimization that needs to be part of their individual decision making process.”

        I am afraid you are in a wrong country, fisho. That just sounds too Japanese for Straya to embrace.

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        fisho, that is exactly what I always thought happened. Thanks for confirming it.

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        Totallyt. Until the whole RE bubble thing caves and gets shown up for the scam it is, people will think that way and will vote accordingly.

      • TripleBeamMiracleDream

        Labor didn’t want any of this election and they literally gave up on QLD. I had to go to a few different locations until just one Labor volunteer was apparent (and then 10 to 1). She looked scared, the oldies were largely missing (got ‘er outta the way during the week m8) but, handing out LNP htv cards – we have Indian style elections now apparently… maybe 3-week weddings soon too? Anyway Labor lost intentionally with bats**t last minute nonsense to make sure they weren’t the schlemiels holding the flaming bag-o-poop.

    • I was thinking the same. Banks will rise, as will REITS (NG)

      Also, if true about proposed Labor tax cuts being the reason RBA didn’t cut rates then we can expect rate cuts very soon.

      • What makes you say that? Seems logical that some selling down of dividend-heavy stocks would have occurred to front run the expected drop in demand for those shares once franking credit cash rebates ended?

  22. Reason for loss by ALP fu#ktards?
    Opposing-flipflopping on Adaini – for those Queensland seats – they fu#ken ALP did not win anything new in QLD.
    Federal ICAC – no mention by the ALP throughout the election campaign – no TV ads on it
    Migration – Nuthin- except pump it up
    Coal – yeah I know is bad, and will be gone in around 15 to 20 yrs, but it’s not the bogeyman some make out, especially Australia’s contribution and that China sends more coal up the chimney than the entire western world. – but China is poor and allowed to do so as they still retain developing nation status (that developing nation status does not seem to factor the cost of building up a blue water navy, stealth fighters or island building) so its all okay!

  23. The biggest problem I have with the LNP win is that a whole lot of corruption will continue. At least if Labor had won there might have been a cleanout.

    While people might like the idea of LNP “owning” a slowdown, well for one we said that three years ago, for another, if things go south economically the LNP won’t respond by removing tax distortions, no, they will respond by kicking the young and the poor.

    While we’ve had a few commenters here whingeing about SJWs- and I’m no fan of the current modern progressive indentist trend- I was prepared to live with a few years of it rather than the nasty “kick people when they’re down” contemptuous vindictive attitude that has been the LNP hallmark.

    Australia will continue to grow into a nation of selfish arseholes who whinge about how everyone else is acting like selfish arseholes. As someone (Gunna?) pointed out, if you’re not over 55 you don’t count. Sadly, Australia is becoming intolerant and old.

  24. QuentinMEMBER

    Voted SAP in both houses but for what it is worth preferenced ALP over LNP as they at least had an idea of where they wanted to be and armed with policies on how they would get there. Sco Mo relied solely on ‘don’t vote for this guy.;
    But surprised myself with the disappointment I feel this morning. Mainly as it means another victory of fear and negativity over policy and attempts to reform. In the entire last decade any time a party has actively pursued a policy regime and attempted to follow through it has been drowned out by arguments driven by self-interest, fear and/or negativity; Rudd’s mining tax, Gillard’s carbon tax, Abbot’s 2014 budget, Turnbull’s corp tax cuts and NEG and now Shotrten’s opposition. It is obvious the elctorate doesn’t want a bar of it. They’re all for change so long as I’m not paying. I just can’t see any stomach for shared sacrifice any more and it extends to both sides. People don’t want the value of their house dropping just as much as they didn’t want to pay $7 for a doctor visit.

    This will also be Sco-Mos prolem going forward as he has campaigned on nothing but fear and will now have 3 years of government where they obviously will have to form an agenda that will be easy to take shots at (ala Abbott 2014) as they won’t have gone to the election with any of it.

    Looking at where the ALP bled seats, really not sure Plibers or Albo as representing two inner-Sydney eletorates is an ideal choice for leader. They’d kill for another Qlder like Rudd (less the psycho aspects). Bowen would maybe be an alternative, but hard to see after the tax plan was so high in the ALP agenda that was repudiated.

    • Im exactly the opposite. I am surprised at how positive i feel on the outcome. I voted for the majors last and tbh cant even recall who i did put last.
      But with Abbott gone, who was the only one that spoke up about immigration in LNP and the economy at the brink of a downturn without many ir cuts left and an LNP govt who has banged on about returning to surplus in a year (probably never expected to have to deliver it) and house prices already falling for 2 years in a row whilst all the taps of tax loopholes and migration were already high… i find myself grabbing the pop corn now and quietly putting my seat belts on.
      Still glad tone deaf abbott is gone though. That was a win for both sides and australia haha.

  25. Oh well. We do live in one of the dumbest nations on Earth so this should come as no surprise.
    We were stuffed if either the LNP or ALP won.
    So we now have more of the same…..

    More of nothing policies.
    More of on-the-fly cruel policies like the one the LNP tried to push down our throats for first home buyers.
    More Mark Bouris cuddling and sucking up to the rich end of town.
    More corruption and vested interested groups having their way with ex-Property Council member ScoMo.
    More holding hands with the Chinese and selling our kids futures out.
    The elderly vote clearly favored the LNP for their negative gearing et al.
    Well done Australia.
    You have put your kids last again.
    At least now, the LNP can take the full brunt of the electorate’s wrath on population ponzi schemes,

    Congratulations.

  26. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Albo’s self congratulatory speech to the faithful last night was pretty hard to stomach. Full marks to the heckler who yelled out, “It’s a disaster!” on live TV.

  27. On Friday night, Rowan Dean was adamant that Scummo will win due to dividend imputation.

    Everyone else – including the gambling firms – thought that Shorten will win. Even the exit polls on Saturday said the ALP will win 80 seats!

    The LNP gained 2 seats in Tas and 2 seats in QLD:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/list?filter=changing&sort=az&state=all

    The LNP may gain a seat in NSW and another in SA.

    The petrol car ban announcement was too much for Queenslanders. The dividend imputation announcement may have gifted a NSW seat to the LNP. Taking negative gearing reform to the election was a big enough announcement – adding dividend imputation and a petrol car ban tipped them over the edge.

  28. CanuckDownUnder

    In an absolutely clueless move the Sustainable Australia Party has posted a story about Shorten losing with the accompanying headline HUMILIATED.

    If there’s anybody who has been absolutely HUMILIATED in this electoral cycle it’s been SAP. There’s been some great comments here about voters abandoning the majors, Trump, Brexit, yellow vests etc and all because of populist anger over excessive immigration levels. Yet for this entire electoral cycle the SAP decided to discard their raison d’être, a push for lower immigration, and instead hide behind a bunch of lame buzzword hashtags like #jobs #housing #planning and #environment. And run on a slogan of Stop Overdevelopment. What does that even mean?

    So in some lame attempt to not offend the hardcore greenies (which has been a complete fail anyway, everybody pushing for environmental and climate issues in this election ignored them or called them proponents of a Wh Australia), they discarded one of the number one issues for voters and ran on a NIMBY platform which got them nowhere.

    Every by-election failure was dismissed as a marketing exercise to build brand awareness for this election where they were hoping to get around 1.5% of the senate vote, as if that was ever going to win them seats anyway. So now that they’ve produced a whopping 0.4-0.5% will they abandon this vanilla platforming and rally behind the populist cry for lower immigration? And if they don’t why should we bother to continue supporting them? Lower Immigration Now!

    • Precisely. Bury with labor. PS I did letterboxing and manned a booth too. What I witnessed was wasted opportunities.

    • Sustainable Population Party = seats in parliament
      Sustainable Australia Party = political wilderness

      It is that simple… Can you imagine where they would be if they retained their original name?

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      Yep, SAP are too decent for their own good. Sadly. I hope they’ve finally learned.

  29. Australia didn’t want to change.

    More ashamed to be Australian that I was yesterday morning.

    Only crisis will change stoic Australia. Shame, I was hoping for more….but I’m not really surprised, sadly.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Australians are about to have an “Uncomfortable” change thrust apon them.
      This Change is coming regardless of who forms Government.
      I for one am pleased that the LNP will now be inescapably responsible for what ever fate befalls us.

      • Same. I never felt like this in my life. I don’t like who won but am really happy who won. Weird.

      • This is the only reason for me to feel less bitter about the situation. I’m not sure how the next 6 months will play out. If house prices stablisie I’ll really believe Straya is different.

      • In one sense I agree with you re: forced change….but on another I am with Peachy: the LNP will throw the entire country at propping the bubble, probably like no other country has before it, and not really care who goes under the bus in the process (they will only be small, voiceless plebs, so who really cares, right?!); and, to a degree , they will succeed, if only in mitigating nominal declines and/or stretching out sharp corrections and/or spreading out / socialising losses.

        I know this is cynical, but I lost a lot of faith in my fellow aussies this weekend, and I didn’t have much already, frankly; nor am I a Labor man, and just cranky they didn’t win, etc, etc, etc…

        It’s now the LNP and their latched-on rent-seekers (much of the populace) vs the Housing Bubble…who will win? I’m not sure, but I have a good idea of who will lose either way, and it will generally be the less powerful and less wealthy in the country. Sad.

      • Yep … I hear ya mate.
        At the very least when it all goes to crap it is more likely to happen under the watch of those LNP “better economic managers”.

    • robert2013MEMBER

      I understand your feelings but I think you’re being too harsh. We were given an impossible choice. A hung Parliament was the optimal outcome!

  30. kiwikarynMEMBER

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/05/polls-betting-markets-deliver-labor-little-landslide/#comment-3341586
    Haha, I told you so. I had a good suspicion that the LNP were going to win, just like I had a good suspicion Trump was going to win. In today’s fake PC world, where people lose their jobs and are publicly pilloried for voicing their opinions, people have gotten very good at telling you what they think they’re supposed to think, rather than what they actually think. Nobody dares to step outside the echo chamber in public, but in private its a whole different story.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Yes,…If labor don’t return to aggressively and Primarily representing the interests of the Working Class then they will deservingly continue to lose.

      • Yes, I said this to my wife last night – they should go full “Class War”, especially if the bubble is stripping away the faux wealth edifice, and supporters could grow by the month.

        There IS a class war – drawn along property lines.

        Property-pandering has killed Egalitarianism, and we STILL think we are egalitarian; we are very dissonant, and the LNP lead the way in dissonance.

        Say it again and again and again and again: the LNP created faux wealth; they are NOT good economic managers; they have fooled generations of Australians by incompetently blowing a massive, wealth-destroying housing bubble, and have mistakenly assumed that explosions in private credit were real, sustainable, genuine wealth; they have destroyed the prospects of the young.

        Say it, and keep saying it; and, if the bubble does it work, they will never, ever, be able to call themselves the better economic managers again…only being remembered as incompetent fools that blew a historic bubble with private credit, and provided short, sweet candy to the workers, only to have it taken away, as they threw the entire nation’s wealth and future at it, to ultimately only benefit the “Bourgeois” – a select few.

        I’m not even Socialist – but the Economic Left has been missing for too long, to balance foolish, short-term economic rationalism.

        Go full class war, and focus on the young (ie. < 50 years old).

        My 2c

      • BW,

        To be taken seriously Labor would also have to own its contributions. A difficult obstacle for both of the major parties is their refusal to look back and then say that though it seemed to make sense at the time our predecessors ended up being being wrong on that one. I’ve seen an ex Labor treasurer nod his head along with an historical analysis only to turn against the questioner that raised Labor’s role in it all. It turned a mostly sympathetic room against him and Labor on the spot. The LNP would do well to slay some of their false gods as well.

      • matthew hoodMEMBER

        EP, how about you make the leadership spill be based on the Bris/Melb line. If your east of it your out, if your west of it you can put your hat in the ring.

    • I think you have it bang on, sometimes I forget what it is I even support, things have become so bad.

    • I was thinking Bill would win and back off the extreme policies like the parents visa, and slowly introduce some real climate action, but the full force approach got rejected. It’s why I loaded the senate and hoped for a hung parliament as I thought it was to only way to control alp and nlp. Even get Z and millenials I spoke to saw alp and ignoring their main gripes, but I doubt many voted lnp or greens.

    • +1 And the guy who lost his job for questioning Bill Shorten during the campaign was a case in point. De minimis Shorten should have intervened.

  31. Anyway – My view is Chris Bowen has to take the lead and stick to most of his policies. Just drop the mass immigration and he will have a winner. Things will change fair bit between now and next elections and people will be ready to accept that there is no gain without pain. Especially if RE prices fall 50% from current levels and Scomo’s friends already flew to Caymen Islands with the loot obviously.
    Yes he made some mistakes but he also showed ability that he can change and he is good debater. “if you don’t like it don’t vote labour” was the only big blunder he made and I think he learned from it.

    • My view is that the loss is significantly on Bowen’s hands because nobody really wants to pay more tax or let their house price drop to fund open borders.

      • matthewMEMBER

        Remember what Gailbraith said,-audit only occurs in bad times.Things are not bad enough yet but it is coming There is a sense of disquiet inthe community and I think the prospect of significant change possibly scared them.I think the majority of people are in favour of change to negative gearing and imputation credits.However the elephant in the room is immigration and proposing to allow elderly relatives into the country in large numbers certainly had me and many others running for the hills
        Our undoing was always going to be external factors and that hasn’t changed with the election of Morrison

      • My dad is rusted on alp, and saw his retirement being smashed and not having access to hospital/services. One of his mates who had most of his assets in 100sm factories was told the land tax was going up by an alp guy so he voted independent as well. Those less well off retirees were maybe some who turned the tide?

      • @afund. That would’ve been a factor for sure. Countless comments I have read in support of Labor’s franking credit changes betrayed a poor understanding of the implications. They had more of a take back from the wealthy vibe.

        Problem is, the policy as proposed was fundamentally flawed. The imputation system is intrinsically logical and fair. Any problem that exists is with the personal tax rates paid by different groups.

        Once people worked out that the cancellation of refunds would hit genuine low income taxpayers, and particularly marginally self-funded retirees the hardest, all the while leaving the benefits largely intact for the wealthy, they were understandably riled.

        Simple truth is Bowen and Shorten thought they were being clever with this one, Bowen in particular letting his ego get involved, and they misjudged.

        Nor was it lost on others that the politicians with their big property investment holdings were set to have those existing arrangements grandfathered, while cancelling the franking credit refunds of retirees who had built up portfolios under longstanding imputation arrangements which had bipartisan support ever since their introduction.

        My feeling too is that the less discussed policy to tax discretionary trusts at 30% would have cost a lot of votes from the small business and tradie cohort who make out like bandits using these for income splitting.

        Had Labor put more effort and less political expediency into their tax policies, and sold them in a more honest fashion, I think they would have had a significantly better reception.
        Benefits of hindsight.

      • @Slambo …my dad isn’t wealthy nor are most of his mates. The factory guy doesn’t have a smsf nor does my dad, but a few thousand can kill their retirement he told me.making investments non viable, and many of them are outside any real retirement super anyway. all these guys are alp voters all their lives.I’ve got no clue how many votes are in it. but I never expected to hear it from my dad. I think it was the parent visa thing that caused the most concern.

    • Bowen should do the right thing and fall on his sword.
      His own goal “Don’t vote for us if you don’t like it” comment disaster is bridge too far to come back from.

  32. My wife told me a comment she read (The New Daily, I think), which rather well sums up the election campaigning and its result:

    “Don’t get between an Aussie and a free feed”.

    Lucky country and second-rate people indeed 🙁

    • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

      Watching a bit of Sunday afternoon TV and Vinnies are hitting the screens with a young Mum living in poverty deciding on whether to eat or pay for medicine.

      Go Straya!!

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        Yep – people consigned to the scrapheap of life, just like the homeless were moved on from squatting outside the RBA – an inconvenient truth.

      • UBI would reduce or eliminate poverty and the bogans across Australia would lap up the $900 per fortnight cheques.

        There will be no backlash if the poorest 80% of the voters are getting the cheques.

        Making the dole better is pointless because the right wing pricks will reinstate work for the dole as soon as they win an election.

  33. I just thought I’d say a thanks to the MB community. A highly intelligent and respectful set of comments and discussion. Our society needs more of this if we are to begin the healing process. Well done.

  34. Internal polling conducted by the ALP was spot on:

    55 mins ago

    The Labor Party polling showed them behind in every key seat in Queensland. Strategists there were very worried about their polling.

    Speaking this morning on the ABC’s Insiders program, columnist Nikki Savva said internal polling done by both Labor and the Coalition showed very different results to the public polls.

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2019-wrong-polls-blindsided-nation-but-shorten-knew-all-along/826a66c5-c71f-46ea-aec4-20a9033f79ff

  35. The Traveling Wilbur

    At least Bob didn’t have to see what just happened to his country and what its people did to make it so. R.I.P.

    We can be grateful for that.

    • If he didn’t pass away last week, he would have passed away last night after seeing Bills performance.

  36. At the start of the night the Doubtful party had a wonderful majority. It appeared that years of Doubtful Government with Doubtful policies lay ahead. Seemed appropriate really. Then over the election night the Doubtful vote kept dropping and the major parties picked it up. Oh well.

  37. The Traveling Wilbur

    So…

    RC into the Financial and Banking industries.
    GoT.
    2019 Federal election.
    Bill Shorten.

    Massive disappointments that did not end well.

    Housing bubble collapse.
    ASX rout.
    Upper class welfare reform.

    Things I am no longer going to be disappointed about when they don’t happen.

    • Nothing meaningful has happened. The result was a surprise to me also but there is no need to make this out to be a huge turning point or anything. Australians voted for BAU……they saw no need to make risk management decisions about future events.

      Don’t think for one minute that Australians stayed up late in the night agonising about their decision or that they voted overwhelmingly for selfish reasons. Things are still pretty good for most people and they simply haven’t seen good enough reasons to change their ways like they were being asked. No need for the opposition to despair but their primary vote is a real concern and they need to ensure as the major parties continue to lose votes that they lose the least.

  38. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Unfortunatly Labor has not been able to redefine itself in the new world The labour movement of my youth was made up of workers in chloth caps and hobnailed boots. They worked in factories and mines and steel mills and they “knew their place “ . They were often led by people who came up from their own ranks
    Suspect that the labour movement today (in the sense of people who see themselves as working class) is greatly depleted . Ermo has often touched on this .
    The little landlords and cafe operators have a sense of themselves as not being working class . They do not see themselves as being in solidarity with the construction worker or the FIFO miner .

    Also many migrants that in times past would have been set to work in a factory ,ushered into a Union and educated how to vote for labor are now more likely to be isolated in some cash in hand business or running that business and having no affinity with “the workers “

    The leadership of this depleted “working class “ is also not of them . The Tanya Pleberseks ,Penny Wongs .Shortens ,and Bowen’s are an elete apart . This whole thing makes for a lack of strength and cohesion . You can’t win elections if your base of support is depleting .

    In a world where labour is becoming fragmented, devalued and gigified it will take more than changing leaders of the labor party to get them back to a position of strength where they can win elections . Some repositioning ….rebranding ….and more representative leadership will be needed .
    Ermo more power to your elbow old chap .

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      The problem with outsourcing all the factories and “insourcing” all the workers (aka 457’s who cant vote) , is that you have no one left to represent. Labor are a party in search of people. So far all they’ve come up with is identity politics. The question they need to ask is “who are the new working classes”? I suspect its the lowly paid in the service industries, those on casual/part time employment contracts, or are in the gig economy.

      • Fair assessment…. the trouble is, most voters in Straya don’t have the foresight to tell what is going on behind the scenes or grasp the nature of the power superstructures. After all, the Moron Side of the Force will do that to you.

        Then, an aspiring pollie will have two choices: (1) patiently try to show these complex things to the uninspiring voters, most likely in vain, or (2) pay superficial lip services to the gullible voters while ripping them off behind their collective back.

        No matter how you look, the latter is easier, requires less time and effort, and is more financially rewarding.

    • Some good points here. The ALP is stuck in a black hole of its own making, unable to see that it is ‘neoliberal lite’ dragging a bandwagon that is repellent to many in its base. It’s march to the Right post-Keating has been its undoing and has formed the ideological gravity it can’t escape from.

      For every 1 lover of identity politics it can hold onto from the Greens it will abandon 2 from its traditional base to the far Right – permanently. It has lost ‘the worker’ because it has in fact contributed to the decline of the union movement and an infection of politics with the ‘look at me’ victimhood of identity politics, race-based narratives and an intolerance of the bloke who refuses to sign up to the PC speech code.

      In the present day ALP there is no retreat from neoliberalism – no Bernie Sanders purity of intent – just a sneaky ‘have your cake and eat it too’ PR approach that few are excited by. It’s tax reform – not principle.

      In truth the ALP became a shapeshifting beast. It defends workers by mass immigration; helps students by imposing fees and turning universities into degree factories; addresses the “ageing population” myth by a policy to age the population; it proposes tax reform without explaining why it also blew up the RE bubble when it was in power and did nothing.

      It trots out Keating, Rudd and Gillard and lines them up like mangy cats at the Royal Show, when it should in reality be finding a political crypt to burry them in to start again.

      Round and round the cirque de merde goes, always looking for a ringmaster.

      The ALP is run by an elite political class who have abandoned basic notions of the Australian nation state for a self-gratifying bouquet of globalist ideology and moralising that is like a cart full of poo that they drag from one election to another, asking people to please ignore the smell. Because it can’t be that they are on the nose – oh no. And BTW that smell is coming from someone else.

      The very idea that Shorten, a man who the electorate yelled loud and clear was unelectable, was expected to drag the ALP carcass over the line speaks volumes. Now he’ll just jump up onto the ALP bandwagon of the decaying political corpses and disheveled opportunists as they cast around for another leader to to pull the poo waggon a bit more until the wheels fall off.

      Sorry ALP, work out who your base is and what you stand for. A mea culpa would be nice. Are you globalists and BIG AUSTRALIA supporters based on cheap labour or will you defend the nation’s values and learn to speak to the great unwashed again? You can’t have it both ways. Are you a champion of people actually born in Australia? How about holding up a mirror to your legacy and banishing the walking neoliberal dead like Albanese who’ve been trashing the Left for years – let ’em join the Liberal Party, or maybe the ALP can merge with the Liberals?

      But no, you’ll probably make frigging Albanese the new leader of the ALP poo cart who’ll start shovelling more on rather than shovelling it off.

  39. How to end the Australian 2 party corrupt system [SOLVED]:

    a) Make preference voting optional. Remove the requirement to number every box (or minimum requirements for upper house – 1 or a single tick is sufficient).

    b) Make it illegal for how-to-vote-cards to recommend preferences and any party/candidate to recommend voters to preference to another party or in what order. E.g. see Rob Oakshot’s how to vote card.

    • The only reason we have two party system is majority voting system.
      Make it proportional and other parties will win 30% of seats

  40. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7045555/DAN-HODGES-Repulsive-tweet-reveals-Remainers-blame-Farage.html

    Funny how this article describes the exact same phenomenon happening in Australia today.

    Mocking, abusing and belittling people who perceive a basic injustice in this democratic disconnect will not result in them reversing their opinion. It will result in the brutal political backlash about to be administered to Britain’s mainstream politicians in four days’ time.

    The Remainers place great store on the perceived ignorance of their opponents. Their supposed narrow world-view, simplistic Brexit prospectus and casual Little Englander prejudice.

  41. MacroBusiness Sweep on the new Labor Leader of the Opposition.

    Here’s the form guide.

    Good Chance.
    🔹Tanya Plibersek – aka Cruella Deville.
    Her own faction, gender & shrill issues.
    Ex UTS affirmative action councillor, serious criminal drug convicted partner, failed former health minister & NRAS fraud $4.5 billion diverted to her foreign student education industry lobbyists & developers. Racist family history and attitudes. Laughed at globally in foreign affairs – with extremist and anti Zionist views.

    The other front runner.
    🔹Penny Wong. Pants with a fly.
    Chinese Malay / lesbian migrant open border agenda, expanding to the climate change band wagon to try & widen her voter appeal. Also a victim of gender & multiculturalist affirmative action.
    No particular achievement except for a participation in a series of disastrous labor bills in the debate that were subsequently scrapped.

    In with a chance.
    🔹Anthony Albanese aka ‘The fat controller’
    Was considered an option as the potential Labor PM candidate but was taken out by Simon Crean in the Thai massage shop scandal and the photos kept ever since as leverage.
    His main achievement was the Sydney curfew and then the planned relocation of Sydney airport to an impractical and very far away location that will cost tens of billions and never be fully built or operational.
    The minister for trains – a popular little rotund cheery Albanese with a deeply tainted history that will never pass public voter scrutiny & so will always be ‘in the queue’ to make sure his left wing bloc is represented but destined to be left behind at the station as he has far too much dirt & soot on him.

    And the long shot
    🔹Chris ‘grow your nose’ Bowen,
    Failed immigration / boat deaths / scandals / failed treasurer / Chris Bowen growing his nose daily.
    And all around blustering little idiot.

    And that’s the lineup so far.

      • I forget Kristina Keneally as an outsider but probably the pick actually.
        And Jim Chalmers & Richard Mearle as long shots.
        See below for update

    • TighterandTighter

      Please to explain how Wong can be leader if she wants to be PM- PM must be in reps, yes?

      I am not saying you’re doing this (even though you didn’t prepend everyone else with “hetero”), but it would be good if we could stop using her sexuality as a perjorative. MB is better than that.

      • Yep / it’s comment on their faction & public declared ideology – in appeal to labor voters.
        Senators as noted would have to be parachuted into a safe seat in Reps. (Aka Gorton who became PM or say Joyce) See below for a more updated list.

  42. I come here for group therapy.

    On another note: “how good is…” Clive Palmer’s open, brazen Cronyism? “I won the election for the LNP, and they owe me” (my quote, paraphrased from stuff he has just said).

    Crazy, crony, Game of Mates – and he’ll get what he wants, too, though just not directly, I’m sure… 🙁

    • He spent tens of millions targeting Labor in Queensland and it paid off.

      Btw, is your website down?

      • Yeah, sorry, website hasn’t been up for years now! 😛

        I’ve had some ambitions to spend some thousands paying someone to automate it the data collection, processing and navigation and visualisation, but I haven’t had the time nor known who to speak to….anyone here? 😉

      • Haha, yes I did used to have a blog, too…to be honest, some of the sentiments I expressed were decent, but the actual execution was, in retrospect, a little embarrassing! So I don’t plug it anymore…

        It’s also a cynical thing – I could spend time blogging again, but to what end? And for what value? As much as I would like to do BurbWatch and my economics blog again (I enjoyed them both), I wonder if my time is better spent elsewhere, looking after my family, and doing extra $$ work…

        Sad, but that is where I am at currently…

      • I understand.
        I did enjoy reading your blog. Let us know if you start it up again.

  43. In the absence of real choice people decided to rather vote for open than disguised neoliberals

  44. MacroBusiness Sweep on the new Labor Leader of the Opposition?

    Here’s the form guide. (Updated to some late new possibles)

    Good Chance.
    🔹Tanya Plibersek.
    Her own faction of left, gender & shrill petty issues. Of lower intelligence, but very safe seat. Ex UTS affirmative action councillor, serious criminal convicted partner, failed former health minister & NRAS fraud $4.5 billion diverted to her foreign student education industry lobbyists & developers. Laughed at globally in foreign affairs – with extremist and anti Zionist views.

    The other front runner.
    🔹Penny Wong. Hard left. Senator. Chinese Malay / gender fluid & open border agenda, expanding to the climate change band wagon to try & widen her voter appeal. A more genuine SWJ gender & multiculturalist affirmative action.
    No particular achievement except for a participation in a series of disastrous labor bills in the debate that were subsequently scrapped.

    In with a chance.
    🔹Anthony Albanese aka ‘The fat controller’ left wing Sydney faction. Safe seat. Was considered an option as the potential Labor PM candidate but was taken out by Simon Crean in the Thai massage shop scandal and the photos kept ever since as leverage.
    His main achievement was the Sydney curfew and then the planned relocation of Sydney airport to an impractical and very far away location that will cost tens of billions and never be fully built or operational.
    The minister for trains – a popular little rotund cheery Albanese with a deeply tainted history that will never pass public voter scrutiny & so will always be ‘in the queue’ to make sure his left wing bloc is represented but destined to be left behind at the station as he has far too much dirt & soot on him.

    And the long shots & other candidates.

    🔹Chris ‘grow your nose’ Bowen, centre left but Failed immigration / boat deaths / scandals / and totally failed as treasurer.
    Perceived as blustering little idiot.

    🔹Kristina Keneally – probably the pick of it.✔️
    Ex NSW labor puppet premier, now a senator and has the mass aopeal and political skills and not part of the federal labor baggage.

    🔹Jim Chalmers – inexperienced and shadow treasurer only in opposition.
    No public profile.

    🔹Richard Marles hard Socialist left Victoria. Again no national profile.

    And that’s the lineup so far.

    • I’m more curious how ALP’s policies will change. Will they change tact or change policies altogether?

    • You display your mastery of federal politics by thinking a senator can be the alternative prime minister.

      • No need to state the obvious.
        If you read it it properly before leaping to insult people it says ‘senator’ – why Keneally is marked as a long shot.
        But taking a long term view, she is by far the best (to a labour voter) in appeal.
        Gender / centre / experience just only a tiny small whiff of labor corruption on her.
        She should would have be given some safe seat.
        Aka say Gorton who was a senator to then Pm.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        @triage don’t they parachute them into a safe lower house seat?

        i think that mike was implying that?

      • Penny Wong and Kristina Keneally would need to be parachuted into the House of Reps at warp speed to be eligible for the vote for Leader of the Opposition. Not sure they have enough time under ALP rules and whether they could bend the rules if required. Getting someone to resign from House of Reps would not be hard … hello Bill? but the by-election would have to take however long it takes. You might remember young Barnaby Joyce was a Senator for Queensland before ambition propelled him to resign from the Senate, contest and win the House of Reps seat of New England, leadership of the Nationals, Deputy PM … and then all the other personal stuff that has happened the past couple of years. He resigned from the Senate with no guarantees and took political risks that paid off.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Maybe not so brave for Barnaby to change ships though because safe National seats come with a life time guarantee.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Richard Marles is a pointless waste of space. You need someone with a bucket to clean up his oops moments. He’s got away with it because of a low profile.

      May be dumber than Joel Fitzgibbon.

      • Great point. The seat of Hunter (based around Cessnock) is true blue Labor. If Fitzgibbon is a moron then it is a waste as it is a seat that could be a good safe hold for a non-Sydney / non-Melbourne Labor leader – someone who by virtue of a regional background would stand more chance of connecting with mining states of WA and Qld (as the Hunter is also mining country).

  45. 1) The ALP ran with Shorten again, despite his shocking personal approval rating. He cannot speak. He is not likeable. But still. He should have been rolled at the last election.

    2) The ALP, after more than a decade facilitating the neo-liberal agenda of the LNP, suddenly decided it was wrong and that ‘changing the rules’ was now the go – despite the fact they helped foist the bad rules on the the working class (traditional base) in the first place. Luke Hillakari at VIC trades hall must go. Sally McManus must also go. Their place must be taken by people with a properly-functioning sense of class consciousness, and an understanding of political / ideological history, willing to admit ALP failures and point the finger at capitalism, over and over again.

    3) The Australian populace has now been conditioned for nastiness. After decades of indoctrination in the school of selfishness, they will only vote for what seems to be in their self-interest (short-term). Again, the ALP’s ideological failures are more to blame for this than the LNP’s ideological successes.

    4) Straya is rooted. Which justifies my choice to leave 3 years ago. Austria (where I now live) has a coalition Govt of centre right / fascists, but some of the policies held by the fascists are to the left of the ALP. To the LEFT of the ALP.

    5) I repeat. Straya is rooted.

      • You can accept that capital subjugates humanity to its will, and find a home at the LNP, for instance. Or you can reject the premise, and find hell at the ALP.

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        Yep, interesting. Going to have a closer look at Austria. Good luck there Ortega.

    • I stayed in Villach with an Austrian friend for a week in 2011. I thought it was great, peaceful and beautiful. I also enjoyed Gentz, but I’d miss certain things about Australia if I left. Like the smug look on ScoMo’s face.

    • TighterandTighter

      I’d considered studying German, and making my kids study German (and French) to bolster their opportunities in Austria, Germany and CH.

      I’ve started applying for English only jobs in Geneva, Basel etc (Healthcare space, lots English only, my holiday French does not suffice)

  46. I must say it is somewhat ironic, indicative of the clown world we alll live, and the complete lack of self-introspection these days, that an ex-alpine skier who probably has a lifetime carbon budget exceeding the average family by at least an order of magnitude wins a seat, apparently concerned about the environment. Go figure.

    • Kalli and her crew in acqua teeshirts were all out on display today at Manly beach.
      They formed a human breakwater & levee to stop the oceans swollen from climate change & Adani emissions from inundating Manly Corso.

      I don’t get the Layne Beachley (surfer) connection tho.
      Surely the surfers want big heavy thundering ocean swells driven by an ocean energised by man made global warming?

      • Beaches was going to run in Warringah instead of Steggall but got cold feet at the last minute.

    • Yes quite good, until you get to the part about being in fear about who’s going to pay her pension.
      Sort of undermines some of her earlier points.

  47. Albanese can be the next PM if he simply takes a hard line on immigration and foreign ownership. It’s that simple.

    He’ll win back the disillusioned from UAP, PHON and the LNP. If he loses a small number of votes on this issue, they’ll likely go to the greens that preference his party anyway.

    He also needs to learn the big lesson here. Don’t go up against the most powerful ideology in Australia – real estate “wealth creation” and don’t take the gifts away from its beneficiaries. Also, the parasitic retired generation – clearly now the most self-interested and greedy generation in the history of Australia. At least until you form government first.

    And for heaven’s sake, never almost cry on national TV talking about your mum.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      +EveryVoteLaborNeededAndDidNotGet

      (and that’s a LOT of votes)

      Spot on.

      Also, dont talk about constructive policies for three years, while in opposition, apparently.
      And never, ever, have Bowen as shadow Treasurer.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yeah. But a lot of those were from people who voted Labor so they don’t count.

  48. Not really compelled by the China did it scenario – see Larry Summers memo and stampede by everyone and dog to get first mover advantage in the worlds largest consumer base – regulatory arb. Not to mention the equity buff and bonus enhancer some enjoyed.

    I find it a classic case of own goal with a side of McNamara et al and some white washing of history to keep the unwashed in tow.

  49. The Traveling Wilbur

    Hey!!!!!!!!!! skippy isn’t banned!

    Has anyone checked for posted comments from r3usa, or Harold Holt?

  50. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Adopting New Zealand’s MMP system in the lower house would stop the two major parties dominating.
    ( Divide the lower house seats proportionally on the parties overall primary vote.)

  51. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Well, appeasement didn’t seem to work.

    Embrace anger. It’s the only way.

  52. Went and bought something from the local small supermarket this arvo.

    Young guy at the checkout counter.

    He asks how I am; I pause, as I’m little bummed about the election (I’m not a Labor man, just a pragmatic idealist that values truth and justice, especially for the vulnerable and young in our society;. I tell him I’m a little bummed, but not upset.

    “Me too, actually” he says.

    I joke, “Hey at least you still might be able to buy a house in 30 years or so”.

    “Not with what I want to do for a job,” he says, “as I want to be a research scientist.

    It was great to find another STEMer, as there is not many of us around in Australia. “I think I will need to move to Japan or something…”.

    “Yeah, or to the US or Eurpoe, or other parts of Asia,” I added, “This is probably the wrong country. You’ll be valued elsewhere.”

    He appreciated the input from another STEMer (I’m a 38 year old Principal Chemical Engineer, running my own business, which I conveyed). “Go for it!” I said.

    Yet another brain that will leave these shores soon – and good on him.

    This is such a major problem for our country, and it’s only getting worse.

    🙁

    • Agree. Massive problem. You won’t hear a thing about it though. It’s a silent exodus and from what I know anecdotally, I estimate the numbers are huge. Hundreds of thousands of very intelligent and creative young people leaving and being welcomed by countries that value them and their skills and ideas.

      The replacement? Exam cheats, people from corrupt familes in developing countries, and 3rd world migrants desperate for any kind of absurdly low wage.

    • You run your own business and you’re bummed out that labor didn’t win?
      How many people do you employ. Did you think about who were you going to let go when they forced up labour rates.

      • I am a 1-man band, specialist consulting engineer. My business, expertise and angle is one of uniqueness and true value-addition; there are not many in the country that can do what I do, they way I do it, and for the relatively low delivered costs that I do.

        Further, I do not mind paying good rates for good work – for example, my sub-consultants are not the cheapest, they are a balance between good price and great competency. Nor do I charge as much as I could (though, I have just put up my rates, partly cynically!). Businesses that need to focus on just screwing down wages are, in my opinion, not well conceived businesses, and generally not focused on net-value delivery for the client/customer.

        I also understand that the main reason our country’s wages are “so high” is largely because of the positive feedback loop of debt supercharged property – as a result, I am further inclined to pay good rates to the right people, and would also do so if I had employees.

        I am not a Labor man per se; I wanted Labor to win because I believed they were, ultimately, the lesser of evils, and wanted to correct some of the systemic injustices plaguing our society and economy.

      • Thanks for the response Burb. Ok – different if you are a one man band but think about those that have staff. I watched Rob Oakeshott on Saturday saying youth unemployment in Coffs was +23%. Small business can soak these people up and give them some purpose but you’ve got to make it easier for them. These are mostly family operations. The minimum wage is quite high if you have to train someone. Unfair dismissal laws are also a problem.

    • Unfortunately yes and brain drain has been going on for 30 years. Wish it were otherwise.

  53. proofreadersMEMBER

    Clive Palmer for Ambassador to Washington? How good is that, Australia?

  54. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Played golf today. Glorious weather. One of my playing partners is a Liberal Party organiser. What the hell happened I ask. A shrug of shoulders. Dunno. Weird. Don’t think they have a plan.

    Talked a few things. He only got uncomfortable when discussing economics, but that’s a usual Liberal thing. Couldn’t be bothered going hard. Too nice a day and to be honest don’t care. We’re in for nation destructing and people don’t care. Time to look after number one.

    • Too right.

      They don’t have a plan. They didn’t expect to win. Their Cabinet is depleted and exhausted (in terms of ideas, personnel and in terms of the physical aspect too).

      The scene is set for some bad policy or just some complacent paralysis. The snouts will be in the trough worse than ever – they have learnt that you get away with it. If there was ever a moment for a serendipitous economic crash , this is it.

      If Australia’s famous luck will hold depends on what you think is needed for the best.

      • Not quite.
        The 1993 comparison seems very appropriate.
        Morrison won because he wasn’t Bill Shorten. Not because people love ScoMo.
        If ScoMo shows the arrogance of Paul Keating in 93-96, the Libs will cop a father of a hiding next time if the ALP can find a safe pair of hands as leader, as the Libs did in 1995 with Howard.
        If the Libs concentrate on governing for all from the middle, and appealing to middle Australia, then they could actually increase their vote next time. At the next election they must offer the voters a reason to vote for them supported by what the Libs achieve in this coming term with the Senate. A tough ask and by no means certain. They could quite easily blow it and then we have a 1996 again.

      • My comment was about the state of mind of the Cabinet for the task ahead.

        The task ahead is difficult for the best prepared of teams, which they aren’t, and it’s hard to imagine they have what it takes. But we’ll see.

    • Why do we need a plan. Can’t the populous just get on with it without interference.

  55. Labor has just gotta get a lot dirtier. Run double sided campaigns. One negative, where you incessantly attack the man, not the ball (it works, even Abbot can do it.) The other positive, where you bring the nation along on all the feel good stuff (but go light on policies, lest you make yerslef a target. Also, most plebs cant critically analyse policies, or understand those 3 words, so just ram home whats good for em when yer in). And stay coherent for ffs. They skipped around all over the joint.

    Plus they had that much ammo on the useless muppets that got in.. dysfunctional, house prices down, per capita recession, open corruption everywhere, just hook into em. Get mean. Hurt em. The electorate love it dirty. Half of em get wet dreams at the mere thought of an invite to one of reusas parties. They love a bit of mongrel. Half the old blokes i know dont even watch afl anymore because they removed the biffo. Give the people what they want. You dont have to be a nice guy or girl just own yer blemishes honestly, get into it and attack the c#*ts. Seems to work for them.

    Anyway the rentier class has won this one. Should provide the smarter ones with some liquidity to exit. So much gloating on propertychat etal, talking about shouting each other drinks with franking credit and NG $$. Gonna be a hell of a dead cat.

  56. SweeperMEMBER

    After further reflection I am convinced the media got Morrison re-elected.
    therefore the biggest lesson for Labor in the future is they have to be prepared to attack the media. Really attack them. They will never support you or give your policies a fair hearing, they will always give credibility to LNP lies. That is the reality. Accept it and fight back.
    Don’t answer their questions. Tear them apart – word for word, all the embedded LNP assumptions and language, call them stupid. Because they are stupid. Morrison is spot on about the “bubble”. But why wasn’t Shorten saying this instead of patiently answering every one of Leigh sales’ idiotic questions.
    tbh Latham would have been great in this role as he loathes the media as well but he is far to right wing.
    The public also loathes the media. You will win support if you attack them.
    In shadow cabinet I can’t see anyone with the character to do this – certainly not Wong, Bowen, Plibersek or Albo – with the possible exception of Kim Carr.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        they are the worst.
        And they think they can just hide behind their job description as though being a journalist gives them license to be an unethical stenographer of fear and stupidity.

        The story on Shorten’s mum is another good example. Rather than tearing up why didn’t he attack the journalists and editors themselves. Fight fire with fire

    • robert2013MEMBER

      Labor didn’t get elected because the more into the campaign they got the more stupid things they said. The fairness theme was great. The SJW voices are the ones that stuffed it up: parent visas, electric cars, matching the libs FHB stimulus, etc. Each time they made policy on the fly they lost credibility.

  57. Talking about future leaders of the Labor party, bring back Lindsay Tanner. At least he is not a fake and a proper leftist.

  58. Never get between young Australians and their inheritance. The payouts awaiting millenials are crazy. Millions of dollars in shares, super, houses that they would never have been able to accumulate themselves.

    Just encourage old mum and dad to take up holidays in risky Asian destinations, smoke, drink a lot (preferably cask wine, its better value), and eat sugary sweets.

    • With respect, most young people believe their Boomer parents will spend the majority of inheritance before they receive it (aged care, Euro and Oz holidays, etc), and that it will be received all too late – ie. When they themselves are old, and not when they needed it when they were young. This is because the wealth was transferred from younger to older via the property market and associated shares, both of which are greatly inflated because of extraordinary levels of mortgage debt washing through the economy for some 30 years.

  59. mikef179MEMBER

    Talking to Australians about the severe private debt situation is like a doctor talking to a recalcitrant patient about their extremely high blood pressure. The patient says they have been just fine up to now. A week later they are still fine. A month, a year go by still OK. So they just aren’t going to worry about something that may never, indeed probably will never happen as far as they are concerned because they are different. Eventually the massive heart attack arrives but they just aren’t even concerned in the meantime. I was talking about the debt problem a few years back to people in my off line circle and they have pretty much completely forgotten about it and think I was just fear-mongering or didn’t know what I was talking about.

    I agree with sentiments above that suggest Australia will only change once the crisis hits. Indeed, they won’t even change then, only when all hope has gone of resurrecting the bubble will change become palatable to the Australian people.

    • You just proved Strayans right – they will instantly lose consciousness once “the massive heart attack arrives”, so they will indeed have nothing to worry about. It will be the job of those who will pick up their bones.

  60. – My opinion is and remains that Bill Shorten / ALP could have won the election. But then they shouldn’t have made Negative Gearing an election topic. By banging on that drum called “Reform of Negative Gearing” they had painted a target on their own back. It was like “shooting fish in a barrel” for the Liberal party/the Coalition.

  61. Young people unfortunately “need” to get involved in politics…I don’t like even saying that…

    But, they are too busy paying off their rent and mega-mug-mortgages…

    🙁