Links 16 April 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    The housing bust and why it’s likely to continue – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

    … extract …

    The looming glut

    … One of the RBA’s biggest concerns was the large number of new apartments about to hit the market, especially in Sydney.

    The bank’s Financial Stability Review is normally a reasonably dry affair. Not this time. With an entire section devoted entirely to the risks associated with the shift in supply to high-density apartments, it makes for sober reading.

    “The large influx in supply has the potential to exacerbate housing price declines,” it notes. … read more via hyperlink above …
    … No lessons learned from Miami 2007 …

    As Condos Rise in South Florida, Nervous Investors Try to Flee – The New York Times

    • Finally I just went through my saved properties on RealEstate com au and found lots of properties under offer or sold, in some cases better than I expected pricing.

      • @Ino where prices are stated better for sellers. Where contact agent is used. No idea. Still properties are selling. Seems there is waves of buying activity. Then it stops.

      • innocent bystander

        your saved properties are a special market – those desirable to you.
        it’s the run o the mill sh1t that is in trouble.
        generally speaking agents will publish prices where the price shows the market to be healthy and not disclose unhealthy ones so as to not scare the punters.

      • Yeah I agree with that and was thinking same thing. Run of the mill junk is not moving. Where as before anything and everything was selling.

  2. Senseless article from Jamila Rizvi 2 hours ago:

    Says she can not afford to have more than one kid – but also says “The reduced immigration program promised by the current government would only worsen the situation”.

    Yeah. Reducing wages further via mass immigration would magically make kids more affordable!

    How does every other nation with less than 25 million people get by?

    • Let’s send her to Somalia. It’s a lucky country, rich with unrestricted migration, so the lucky women generally each have 6 children there.

      I’m sure the blokes there would be happy to oblige her 5 or 6 times, as well.

    • Just for some context, the author of that article, Jamila Rizvi, is the daughter of the possible boss of the Immigration Department in the incoming Labor government, Abul Rizvi. Just as Ross Garnaut does not write the China related articles of his son John Garnaut, Abul would not have written that article for his daughter. But views are formed sitting around the family dinner table over many formulative years.

      Abul was a key architect of much of the structure of current visa categories and oversaw the mechanics of John Howard’s pea trick of slamming boat arrivals whilst blowing out plane arrival numbers. Here, I suggest, is Abul’s application for the gig as boss of the immigration department.

      And here he rips into some of the assumptions hidden into scummo’s heroic budget and debt claims.

      And for some context, at one stage at least Abul was quite gungho about ballooning migration numbers.

      • Well no, possibly not, Abul Rizvi is an effective administrator and if he got the gig my guess is he’d hone in at clearing up the huge backlogs of applications and attempt to whittle down the tens of thousands of people overstaying in Australia on visitor visas and bridging visas. My suspicion is that Dutto and co have allowed the processing of visa applications to get out of control so as to justify their intention to privatise visa processing. Labor has said that visa processing will remain with the public service and so they will need to give the immigration department and agency boss sufficient resources and direction to get things back under control.

        Also as Abul himself has said when the economy turns sour there will be a significent drop in people wanting to come to Australia. So with those two factors working together the feeling that immigration is out of control should abate in the months after Labor wins government.

        That the current bosses of the immigration program take Abul seriously is shown by this article he posted last week. A deputy secretary and a FAS are top brass in a government agency (also check out Abul’s set of questions he wanted answers to – his mastery of detail has always given him a huge advantage in any debate on immigration policy, and probably the reason why the meeting was cancelled).

  3. Hugh PavletichMEMBER


    New poll: Jacinda Ardern receives highest rating since taking office, while Bridges falls … TVNZ
    Labour one seat shy of being able to govern on its own according to 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll; Ardern soars ahead as preferred prime minister; Bridges neck and neck with Collins … Interest Co NZ

      • @Ian. Inclined to agree. Always very readable posts and info not likely to be found elsewhere.

      • @yeborsky,
        The problem was that the info was as reliable as listening to the local know it all at the pub. There’d be something in some of it, there had to be given the quantity, but finding it was a bother. And the amount of BS this supposed engineer posted on things technical was amazing.

      • @footsore – that’s the point – there was something in some of it as in most of the guff on this site. You have to filter it. And I found him entertaining.

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        @Ian. I’m still with you here. I quite accept what foots is saying but, if you magically erased the BS from the typical weekend’s comments, you could read it all in about five minutes. I found WW’s posts to be simply more interesting and forthright than a lot of the other “hey, look at me” stuff that makes up the bulk.