Links 15 April 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    IRELAND – Dublin house prices more than nine times the average salary … The Irish Times

    Dublin’s housing market may have reached “peak affordability” with prices now more than nine times the average salary, a level not seen since the height of the boom.

    An analysis of the latest house price data from the Central Statistics Office shows the median price paid for a house in the capital was €370,000 in February. This was 9.3 times the average annual earnings (€39,753) for the same period. In Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, the most expensive area in the State, the median price (€541, 667) paid for a house was nearly 14 times average earnings.

    The price-income multiple is a standard measure of affordability worldwide. In the past an “affordable” home was considered to be three to four times a person’s income. The Central Bank’s mortgage restrictions, which limit people to borrowing 3½ times their income, reflect this measure of affordability. The rapid rise in house prices in recent decades has, however, decoupled this relationship, with buyers requiring many multiples of income to get on the property ladder. … read more via hyperlink above …
    … The Irish Times median multiple methodology needs to be tidied up …

    2019 15th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
    Definition Of An Affordable Housing Market – Performance UrbanPlanning

    • “The Central Bank’s mortgage restrictions, which limit people to borrowing 3½ times their income, reflect this measure of affordability. The rapid rise in house prices in recent decades has, however, decoupled this relationship, with buyers requiring many multiples of income to get on the property ladder”

      MPLOL…. with an Irish accent.

      • “The review confirms that the measures continue to operate as intended.”

        Ahahahaha, indeed.

        Buy-to-let mortgages exempt from Loan-to-income limit as well.

        10-30% mortgages exempt from minimum deposit requirements as well.

        Operating as intended indeed. Next year, prices will hit 10x income, no doubt.

      • Hugh PavletichMEMBER

        Peachy … research the Dublin median multiple. It should be about 4.8 … when based correctly on household incomes not single earner incomes for dwellings (not just detached houses in the case of Ireland) as incorrectly calculated by The Irish Times.

        Note too the Demographia Definition Of An Affordable Housing Market … and guide for various dwelling types. Link provided.

        This also directs you to the important Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Research Median Multiple Tables for American metros going back to 1980.

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    ‘Crazy house prices’ causing southerners to flee to Queensland … Sydney Morning Herald

    Queensland’s economy is getting a boost thanks to people fleeing “crazy house prices” in southern states.

    Deloitte Access Economics’ latest quarterly Business Outlook report argues Queensland’s economy has improved off the back of more gas exports and more tourists. … read more via hyperlink above …
    … and Auckland too … essential viewing …

    Otago and Southland experience booming property prices as Auckland’s dip … TVNZ

    • Duterte got played by China….
      The CCP uses him to consolidate its control of the SCS and is now done with him.

  3. Coalition stopped welfare payments to 55,000 homeless

    Some say the homeless should eat a “job guarantee”, as if nobody thought of having a “job guarantee” before.

    Andrew Yang looked at it:

    A jobs guarantee is a well-intended but terrible idea. Leads to armies of dystopian laborers forced to do makework to survive amid a growing mass of bureaucrats. Studies have shown an inability to transition into private employment afterwards.

    • Julian’s only real crime was that of Hubris in that he was more interested in getting his own name in the media than protecting himself or his sources. There were many simple ways to put one more level of confusion and subterfuge into the information / comms process that would have had the US investigators chasing their own tails forever but he didn’t do what was needed.
      Maybe I’m just engaging in a bit of Monday morning quarterbacking, but from my perspective he dropped enough crumbs that even a blind dog could have followed the trail, the only reason for this sort of laziness is an underlying he desire to be discovered, which is why his only real crime is that of Hubris.

      • When the World Socialist website and Tucker Carlson agree Jimmy Dore is exactly right. The 6 Corporations controlling the US (and other) media are activating NPC memes. All bought and paid for.
        Thanks for the link.

  4. ‘Cheap as chips’: Sellers slash prices 20pc
    Ms Bloom said agents who over-quoted property values are being forced to review their original price in line with falling market expectations. Many properties coming up for auction have been on the market for more than 12 months, have been passed in once, failed to find any expressions of interest among private buyers, and are put back on the market with a second agent.

    For example, Melbourne’s most expensive weekend sale at Mernda Road, Kooyong, a leafy dress circle suburb about 7kms south-east of Melbourne’s central business district, sold for about $4.7 million after being passed in. The four-bedroom, luxury 1930s property, which had been on the market for about 12 months, was on offer for about $5.5 million and, at the height of the property boom, would likely have sold for about $6 million, according to agents.

  5. Greenspan who destroyed usa and world economy is not ashamed to say that next recession will happen because of social services like social security and Medicare
    This what happens when real crooks don’t get hanged after a fair trial

  6. If you ever wondered why your Windows 10 runs so slow:
    (1) The full source tree with all the code, test code and everything that together constitutes the “Windows source code” is more than a half terabyte in size, in more than 4 million files.
    (2) While earlier versions were mostly in C, more C++ came in with the bloat that introduces.

    I’m Linux and Windows 7 so NMP.

    • Code quantity has not a lot to do with code quality.

      What is important to remember is how the OS is architected in its incipient stage has a lot to answer later down the track, when applications and users pile on for the past 30+ years.

      Also, don’t gloat.

      • Unix linux are way better. I know how they developed and have ex colleagues working at MS. I know it’s harder these days as well due to the size and many side effects that just happened in any large project

      • Google it and you’ll see many surveys. FYI at my last US job we stayed on Win 7 as Win 10 was too slow processing the amount of data from the In Circuit Emulators (ICE’s) and lot of other devices like Logic State Analysers and Radio Test Equipment that we used for developing 3G 4G mobiles ( our PC’s were the highest spec we could build). Debugging a modem processor and Apps processor on several interfaces is demanding time wise with lots of deterministic interrupts going off from lots of hardware blocks. Most of the developers have very high spec machines compared to normal users. What we used to see is development done on high spec machines did mask time issues that really slowed down apps on slow machines for customer windows apps that were released until the apps team got on to that flaw..

        If you just doing word processing/spreadsheets (small calcs) you’re mostly ok, but even then without enough of the right mix of RAM and hard drive say SD type it can be very slow; my wife is a teacher and her system is so slow and it’s a medium spec machine. I used to develop algos for actuaries and they always wanted the fastest machines to run their spread sheets and purpose apps for superannuation projections. One app used to run for three days initially and we got it down to 10 hours with parallel cpu’s and lots of optimised c code; there were a huge number of people in the fund though.

        My view is different that a normal user though as my work is very hardware/software based with lots of sensors and comms work.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Surveys are meaningless. Googling up some actual benchmarks shows there’s bugger all, if any, difference from Windows 7 to Windows 10.

        You may have a corner case where the difference is significant (and I would recommend ensuring there’s not problems in the application or drivers even if you find one), but that’s hardly extendable to a general case.

        I frequently use Windows 10 quite happily on a laptop that’s over 7 years old.

        The biggest problems in my experience are from either a) vendor-supplied crapware or b) poor corporate images (arguably nearly identical cases). I have had more problems with my work Windows 10 laptop (my first centrally managed system ever) in the last ~12 months of the new job than every other Windows box I own combined for probably the last 10 years.

        But the simple fact all those other Windows machines are or have been trouble-free identifies that Windows is not the problem.

        If you want to complain about the speed of OSes, OS X would be a better place to start.

      • I’m not complaining. Couldn’t care less about Window 10; I was just informing as I hear so many complaining about it in my line of work. I’m sure you can find what ever you want and it depends on how you use the OS. There are so many OS’s that you can choose for non standard apps that require speed.

  7. innocent bystander

    … Residents of one of the first buildings in Victoria to be audited for cladding claim they received threats of huge fines and eviction by the regulator if they didn’t remove it …
    “The Supreme Court of Victoria determined in December 2017, that after an occupancy permit is issued, the Victorian Building Authority cannot direct builders to fix non-compliant work.
    “This means that owners are responsible for fixing their buildings. …”
    Close to 700 privately owned buildings have been identified with cladding in Victoria.