Links 11 April 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. Oh dear.

    9 hours ago

    Anthony Mundine has come out against vaccinations

    I think it is important that this anti-establishment blog take a pro-vaccination stance and say that autism is probably caused by bacterial imbalances in the gut:

    April 9, 2019

    Arizona State University

    Autism symptoms reduced nearly 50 percent two years after fecal transplant

    In a new study, researchers demonstrate long-term beneficial effects for children diagnosed with ASD

  2. Hugh Pavletich

    NEW ZEALAND: The Wanaka Sun – Government bails out Northlake’s KiwiBuild

    During question time in Parliament last week, Minister for Housing Phil Twyford confirmed under question by National’s Housing spokesperson Judith Collins that the government has bailed out Winton, the developer behind Northlake, by buying the unsold KiwiBuild houses that failed to sell as part of their underwriting scheme. Winton has already removed the properties from their website—the houses are now the government’s problem. … read more via hyperlink above …
    New Zealand Housing … From Crisis To Disaster
    … Housing Minister Twyfords recent important speech … where is the action ? …

    New Zealaned Housing Minister Phil Twyfords speech to the New Zealand Initiative Members Retreat … New Zealand Government / Beehive

    … extract …

    … In our view there are three big challenges that have to be addressed:

    1. A broken system for financing infrastructure

    2. A planning system based on urban containment

    3. The failure of governments until now, both local and central, to actively work with the private sector to enable urban growth and expansion.

    … concluding …

    … I talked about the land banking and speculative economy, and the pressure cooker that has given us some of the most obscenely expensive housing in the world.

    These moves are designed to change that. …

    … If we do these things we can truly flood the market with development opportunities. We can break the land banking economy, and drive down the cost of urban land.

    We can achieve more competitive urban land markets. And industry that is more focused on development and building places of enduring value instead of land banking and speculation.

    That is the pathway to more affordable housing, and a systemic fix of the crisis that has caused so much hardship, and sucked so much of our national wealth into residential property instead of the productive economy. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Yep. Me too. There’s nothing wrong with timing the market, despite conventional wisdom saying it’s a mug’s game. Just adjusting your portfolio is a form of timing the market. The downside of TTM is in the inefficiency of entry/exit timing. You never really exit at the top and never really get back in at the bottom. There’s always slack. This slack is avoided by those who stay in. However, blindly staying in means you can’t make gains during a downturn. If TTM in a bull market you need to get out early and accept that it will go up maybe a few more percent with high volatility, don’t sweat that. Then it will be very important not to miss the bottom by too much when getting back in. Otherwise those who stay in will end up doing better, by virtue of the minor percentage efficiencies at exit and entry.

      • Reply to self…of course when TTM, it’s possible to completely mis-read the market and miss the biggest future-boom of all time. Not sure how to avoid that except with eyes wide open.

  3. Those whacky Japanese. Fancy a pollie resigning from a well-paid job for simply saying something inappropriate and then his boss apologising for giving him the gig in the first place. They need to get some happy clappy morals: it’s only wrong if you admit to it.

  4. Not sure where else ot post this

    Recently the missus and I did our tax with our accountant (he’s cheap and can meet us outside of normal working hours)
    The last 3-4 years with various accountants we’ve been asked about our savings and what our plans are “to invest in property per chance? Greeat time to get into the market”. The sentiment changed this year. “great time to have a big chunk of cash on the side”