Fortescue just destroyed the long term iron ore market

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Via the AFR comes FMG’s new magnetite mine:

Iron Bridge would deliver a premium product with iron content of 67 per cent.

About 3000 workers will be required for the construction and there will be about 900 permanent jobs once the mine is in production.

The mine is expected to produce 22 million tonnes a year of 67 per cent iron magnetite concentrate by mid-2022.

That is going to land right on top of China’s worsening growth stagnation and building slowdown as Japanification transpires into the 2020s. Worse, given it will give FMG the chance to high grade and blend cheaply, that will keep it in business much longer than otherwise. How much of its substandard ore can be upgraded by this is difficult to tell given how technical the process can be chemically but even if the magnetite production remains discrete by subsiding the firm’s lower quality ores it will be in business longer.

Basically, by breaking with the implicit iron ore cartel supply constraints, FMG has guaranteed its survival much longer and in the process materially lowered future iron ore prices for as far as the eye can see.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.