Daily iron ore price update (falls ahead)

Iron ore prices for April 17, 2019:

  

Spot spanked on Brucutu. Paper more. Steel solid. Port stocks are climbing, 149mt last week, suggesting no shortage or ore.

We might see some price strength as mills restock a little longer but the clear risk now is more price falls moving into May/June which is a very seasonally soft period for iron ore:

Fundamentally, with Brucutu back online the price should probably be around $80 which may be where we’re headed over the next few months. That said, I’d think about buying miners on a pullback of that magnitude as China stimulus pours into realty for an H2 rebound.

All of this assumes no more Vale troubles of course.

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