Weekend Reading 9-10 March 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

Americas:

Europe:

Asia:

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Comments

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        This country has a history of rewarding the leaners and punishing the grafters. My mate 93 thinks he can’t get the pension after a lifetime of paying taxes. Akin to taking out an insurance policy but only the non contributor getting the claim. Look at Cook came 50th to land and 1,000th to see but took the prize.
        Gavin.
        Tried to copy & paste Bill Hare ( West Australian Tues Feb 26 1952 ) for your perusal but couldn’t do it.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        I bet Flawse could add some heavy lifter farmer stories to this.
        Nearly 80 years of paying taxes to support (carry) some who have never paid tax. The day of reckoning must surely arrive one day.

    • Anthropos metron

      What ?
      A million illegals arrived in 2019 already – no skills, criminals, sex traffickers, drug dealers is not the same as highly skilled workers.

      American manufacturing actually is growing – rapidly – so migration makes sense as opposed to democrat voters who will simply destroy the southern states.

      Derp.

      • I heard on the radio yesterday that they are going to modify their property tax.
        That’s what got me looking into it.
        Unfortunately I couldn’t find any details.

  1. Debunking Deregulation: Bank Credit Guidance and Productive Investment.
    Deregulated banking in rich countries delivers more “investment” in speculative asset markets, not productive businesses.
    (Don’t we know it!)
    http://evonomics.com/debunking-deregulation-bank-credit-guidance-and-productive-investment/
    The author, Josh Ryan-Collins is the co-author of the excellent book on the much neglected economics of land, ‘Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housings’.

    • Well he got the diagnosis correct that’s for sure.
      I believe, rightly or wrongly, that it is not necessary to re-regulate everything. Those who want everything regulated again forget what it was like trying to deal with regulatory Public Servants back in those days. It was always a trying experience. What is required however is a fundamental shift in Economics away from this GDP stupidity. GDP should be one measure used AFTER you’ve balamced your economy in terms of it’s Current Account, Interest and saving rates, productivity, social values, equity and liveability – and whatever else you can think of.

      • Regulatory oversight is a Goldilocks problem. It will never be just right. I am personally in favour of as few big dumb rules that are clear and can easily be enforced. A nightmare world for lawyers and accountants whose crust is made in the crevices and cul-de-sacs of regulation. I also agree with Ha-Joon Chang in that different rules work in different countries at different times. The political economic environment is always evolvingbased on what is happening in the world. It’s rather obvious that it’s time to clean out the shed and get rid of a lot of useless junk, keep what is good, and perhaps replace some worn out and broken things. To do it so that both capital and labour are looked after and the rentseekers/exploiters have their means taken away from them would put a smile on my face.

      • Yes, it will never be just right. I do think though that all this talk of deregulation is completely wrong, as with every invention or change in the world we have to have more regulation so that some tosser doesn’t screw the rest of us. Many business let alone average punters simply cannot have the knowledge to assess all risks or outcomes, so strong regulations are required. That said we could rewrite many more in the vein of the French bread or German beer laws ie a few rules that outlaw everything else .

    • foots – ideally you are right. I’d opine however that more regulation makes more lawyers and accountants. I suspect it is one of those topics that can be filed under ‘unlatched stable doors and absent equines’.

  2. https://www.realestate.com.au/news/iconic-frankston-chapel-could-be-auction-bargain-after-340000-price-cut/

    What they don’t tell you is that the area around this “Chapel” has been filled with vagrants, druggies and dodgy crap for several years.

    When entering Franga you see the hideous building and it’s been on the market for many many months, seen it listed for sale, delisted again later etc.. I am tipping it won’t sell tomorrow unless a particularly big Wood duck comes along.

    It’s divided up into apartments and the ones behind it house a lot of housos to my knowledge. So likely not a great environment to be around.

    • Interesting but definitely seems like a white elephant, given the neighbourhood, and especially if you’re limited in how you can modify it due to heritage etc.

      And what about the other two properties they’ve “featured” in that article! What a pair of undistinguished sh!tboxes. The first is already looking ugly despite being kinda new – check the poo brown feature wall! And the second one is just deeply unremarkable: old, small and unrenovated – are these really the most interesting auctions they could dredge up?

      Bottom of the barrel stuff there by REA.

    • “Have these central banks sold this gold forward in the post-London Gold Pool and its successor commodity markets in their attempt to keep down the price so as to maintain the appearance of a solvent U.S. dollar standard?” – perhaps John Adams and Martin North are not wrong when asking RBA to confirm if they have physically audited our gold.

    • “My book on Super-Imperialism explains why running out of gold forced the Vietnam War to an end. The same logic would apply today to America’s vast network of military bases throughout the world.

      Refusal of England and the U.S. to pay Venezuela means that other countries means that foreign official gold reserves can be held hostage to U.S. foreign policy, and even to judgments by U.S. courts to award this gold to foreign creditors or to whoever might bring a lawsuit under U.S. law against these countries.” – and this explains current US and UK policies trying to aggressively pick fights around in order to loot other countries resources. US just took over 50t of gold from IS in Syria.
      For how long can this go for?

    • We’re doing a bit of Marie Kondo at our place – I gotta say it’s enormously liberating. Now if I can just convince my other half not to buy more stuff to replace the old stuff that’s gone…

      • Try moving a couple of times in 2 years… packing and unpacking all that sh*t, yeah, nah! 😀

      • Yes John same theory. He is the master of declutter. It just depends which possessions “spark joy” in you. In Staggy’s case it’s a full can of beer found on a roadside.

    • It’s good for the soul. I did a massive change in my living quarters after watching the movie the minimalists. I already had a strong anti compulsory consumption attitude, but getting me to sort out the living situation and daily values ya been great.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Constant battle in this house. I’m happy with nothing, Lovey needs stuff that she can put an emotional value to.

      It must get bad for some though. One of my return to work tales of woe was a lady who’s gone into depression because of hubby’s hoarding. Sad. She’s in tears telling me. interesting thing is the experts say it runs in families yet this lady’s kids are all extreme minimalists.

      • My step dad was a hoarder, my mum and I constantly struggled to get rid of stuff. The garage used to be so untidy I could hardly find anything. I once found Telstra bills from the early 80s in a folder. I put the whole lot out for collection (on the street) he came home and put it all back. Drove me nuts.

        When they sold up and downsized he finally saw the light and felt a sigh of relief when he owned less stuff. As Tyler Durden said in Fight Club. The stuff you own, ends up owning you..

        I collect lots of car parts, but they must all be nearly stored and organised.

        The missus buys a lot of cheap nicknacks though, we have like 4-5 mops she’s bought over the years because she thinks some gimmick works better than another etc..

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I hear ya.

        I keep on telling Lovey that her stuff means we’re going to have to spend an unnecessary $50-100k extra when we buy a place to buy a place bigger than we need just to fit her stuff in. Nope, doesn’t matter. Everything has an emotional value.

        One of the reasons I prefer to stay renting. Every time we move some pointless rubbish gets disappeared.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        I struggle with my hoarding but at least it can’t be seen from the house and all perfectly boxed labeled categorized and high shelf stacked. That said I need to cleanse out some stuff from the factory/man cave to make way for my home tools if ever we move out of this house.

    • Mystic MedusaMEMBER

      Gavin – there is an absolutely hilarious episode of that USA reality tv show Wife Swap (or whatever it’s called) where they match an avid declutterer with a clutter-bug, verging on hoarder and the declutterer unclutters the house during the Wife Swap. Personally, I am an extreme declutterer, I find it therapeutic.

    • Is her car a trash heap as well? My wife is the same and the her car is a mess, but I get to clean it lol

      • No we have 1 primary car. She never clean it though and the dog drives me nuts by getting his drool all over the windows. When I clean it it’s like heaven for about a week. Then the dog gets in and windows get dirty again. I honestly don’t know how I’ll handle kids. Little bastards are gonna ruin everything.

      • @Gavin … I have a daughter and only once did she trash the car with lipstick, but that was it. The dog on the other hand wrecked the CX-5 luggage area, head rests/top of the rear seats, and back bumper. It drives me mad, but I just have to disconnect. The worst thing was to buy a new car..I’m still kicking myself for that.

      • rj2k000MEMBER

        I wouldn’t having *any* animal in the car.
        Disgusting dirty things even for the house.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I think meerkats should be regulated. Free meerkats is what got us into this mess.

      • @h… yes and the CRB need to crack down on the alt right flagrant disregard for full disclosure on this crafty asset class manipulation

    • Not a big fan of this art gallery / minimal boutique living arangement where everything is pristine and purposelfully selected to decorate the place with its compartment inside compartment inside compartment storage where every little item is neatly tucked away like some musem archiving storage facility. Something nice about places that have clutter with varying ornaments mis matched around the place. Books and pictures astray etc.. adds character, charm and flavour

      • I don’t like display homes for that reason, I like old warehouses that have a bit of wear and patina, but everything must serve a purpose. I hate stuff for the sake of stuff. I’m like the above, I find it therapeutic to get rid of stuff. When I moved from Ireland to Australia I threw a lot of stuff out and like MB above the thing I like about renting is some stuff gets disappeared in the move.

      • May years ago I saw a Brass plaque “If a tidy desk is the sign of a tidy mind – what’s an empty desk a sign of?”

    • Lololol. I’d not agree, my ex was into the “everything in its place” and it caused her way more anxiety than clutter ever caused me. But, like most thing there’s a time and a place for everything.

      • mild colonialMEMBER

        I have completely konmari’d. Took me more than a year, really. Wunnerful though. I totes recommend.

    • He was a w*nker and it looks like not much has changed. He lived around the corner and flew the flag; I always had a yearning to burn it!

      Though can’t deny some of his views.

  3. UBI in NSW.

    The Greens finally understand what is going on.

    https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/5942513/greens-plan-to-introduce-700-fortnightly-payment-trial-for-south-nowra-residents/

    $700 per fortnight. When they had Gillard over a barrel, they did not even reduce my electricity bill by $70. And now it is a good idea to give out $700 per fortnight.

    it does away with harmful and wasteful programs like ParentsNext, work- for-the-dole and RoboDebt

    Mr Shoebridge argued that people should not have to meet job search commitments to get their payments

    Spot on dude. Remove the job search requirements when you have Shorten over a barrel. Or just turn a blind eye to the JSR – the way the LNP turns a blind eye to wage theft. It is absolutely shocking that voters are not guaranteed to receive $70 per fortnight. Let alone $700 per fortnight.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      do you even read the articles you post ?

      That’s talking about NSW Greens and a state government initiative. Zero to do with federal government / federal labor. and the greens will be pummeled into legislative irrelevance in the coming federal election that they will never hold anyone over a barrel again.

      and why is an election 9 years ago still your point of reference for forming judgments on people and parties ?

      • It is a little bizarre that the state Greens are talking about UBI. If it is $700 per fortnight at the state level, a million voters will move to NSW. Perhaps they are flying a kite for the federal Greens while Jenny is busy fixing intercoms and sticking her middle finger up at the people of, um, Sydney.

        I think some states in AUS tried to have universal healthcare and then Whitlam put in universal healthcare federally. It would be a shame if we have to have a state-based UBI before a federal one. ALP will probably remove slave-for-the-dole in 2019. A shame they did not do so before 2013.

        I am not sure that the fake Greens will be annihilated in the federal election. They are still polling at 9%.

        It is true that the 2019 federal election will not result in a hung lower house. What about the upper house? Is the senate reform not going to replace the micro parties with the fake Greens?

    • DominicMEMBER

      “… a million voters will move to NSW … “. Bingo!

      Initiatives in certain Democrat-led cities on the US West coast to tackle homelessness (ostensibly involving handouts in a variety of forms) has led to the homelessness problem, er, worsening! Once news got out, the homeless from other states got on a bus and rolled into town for their free sh!t. Whocouldanode!

      Every time the world improvers have a bright idea, it ends up being a giant c0ck-up. It’d be funny if it weren’t so terrifying.

      • +1 but it seems we are getting that outcome anyway with parental visa’s from the 3rd world.

  4. Trump is now accusing the Dems of antisemitism and being ‘anti-Jewish’.

    Antisemitism as an accusation is now the international go-to insult du-jour, bandied about willy-nilly by imbeciles looking to damage their opponents in whatever way they can (left, right and centre)

    Can I say, as the accusation becomes increasingly meaningless, that this only serves to bolster truly anti-semitic forces, and paradoxically only adds to the threats faced by the Jewish people.

      • The difference is that he said that he was different.
        He claimed to be big business so he couldn’t be bought.

        He wasn’t like the others.
        He said he’d drain the swamp
        H said he’d build a wall.
        He said he’d make America great again.
        He said he was the saviour those that the last 30+ years had left behind.

        He hasn’t drained the swamp.
        He didn’t start work on the wall when he most likely to succeed (the first two years).
        He waited until it wouldn’t go ahead and then turned it into an issue.
        A basic and successful tactic.
        Not for wall building, but for getting around having to build a wall.
        It’s also conveniently forgotten that it was Mexico that was going to pay for it.
        That’s only if we are keeping him to his word.
        Inequality is still growing.
        His corporate tax cuts did exactly what everyone who had looked at the history of those things said they woud do.
        They boosted share buybacks and increased inequality.

        If his presidency has done anything, it has forced the rest of the political establishment to look at itself.
        Davos man has been feasting and the peasants are starving.
        It’s time for them to figure out how they can get things working again.
        If not they will become irrelevant, and there’s nothing that self important elitists hate than more than being considered nothings.

  5. How many people sit down and compose an MB post to vent their spleen and after putting the final touches on it, feel enough satisfaction seeing it in words, that they don’t need to post and just delete the whole thing?

    I just did this re some point in the thread re the Greens, and feel satisfied enough – and have not burdened you good folk with my incoherent rantings.

    I find that I ave been doing a lot of this lately.

    • Anthropos metron

      On other sites I leave the page, come back, then thing who cares about cats playing piano. Not so much this site – stuff matters here and people read each others words.

    • AOL (a hark back at the “me too” type of response in just about any newsgroup I frequented; most me-too-ers were AOL users).

    • reynmonMEMBER

      Agree, me too. I have got great stories in my head of stuff I see on a daily basis and can’t get around to composing a post. This past 8 months whilst working in a prestige car dealership have been very interesting…

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        I’ve got memories of early fifties at North Cottesloe where the breadman came by horse and cart, so did the milkman, the only one with a truck was the iceman and mum would take this big block of ice and put it in the icebox. Guy Fawkes night would see a huge bonfire lit in the middle of the street and dogs roaming at will.
        Posting this to myself I guess but the good old days in Aussie were really the good old days.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        You should share some anecdotes from there. The sale or not of Mercs must give clues to the broader economy .

      • I’m interested in how things are going at said car dealership. How much finance is falling through? How many are desperate to sell their new toys?

        The house I put an offer on the other party has now been trying to obtain finance for over a month. That can’t be good…

      • A friend recently got an Audi RS3 for a work car, and he got a better price financing it through his own finance. It sounded like the dealer gets a nice kickback if you go via the Audi finance lot. The price diff was huge

      • Afund the dealership model these days is not about making money off the sale of cars in the traditional sense e.g. as noted financier skimming or servicing. Watched years ago here in Brisbane as the European Mfg rode the wave in capturing market share due to RE and Investment portfolio inflation. That was the first round and some make good packet owning several CBD Mfg makers at the same time. A few years ago market share peaked and some questions were being asked due to dodgy lending so they were sold on to get the rinse treatment.

    • And here’s me thinking I was the only one!
      I’m reminded of the Two Ronnies sketch; two politicians starting a conversation at yet another infernal cocktail party, and one says to the other after a few sentences ” I just can’t be bothered with this chit-chat anymore” and they walk off in opposite directions, with a smile.
      (Hey! And this post actually made it to the Submit Comment part…)

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Constantly.

      I would like to hear some luxury car stories though. You know, take me back to the mining days. *sniff*

      Oops, not luxury, prestige. Is there a difference? Discuss.

      • I presume prestige (not luxury) is when you buy a car that is essentially a toyata camry but then you pay $20K more for a badge and the privilege of thrice-higher servicing costs.

        Like the BMW 3-Series.

        Prestigious!

      • i was going to Mt isa one year
        passing through Charters towers, I thought I’ll drop the oil just outa town and have fresh oil for the run to the isa
        parked over a ditch but the ring spanner rounded the lugs on the sump plug.
        so next town for a supa cheap was Cloncurry
        Bought a 17mm full faced socket, and thought better put the car on the hoist in case there is more drama
        pulled into the BP cloncurry and was charged $60 to put the car on the hoist and change the oil and filter
        (I had the oil and the filter
        Whilst I was there, out the back were about 16 to 20 toyota hilux utes parked up
        all had CUDECO on the door
        I said what is going on
        Oh the aircon wont handle the dust out here
        so the geos wont drive the vehicles.
        WW. any of you guys see the old landrover Mark Creasy drives
        that is why he is a successful geologist.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Guilty. Changed the low beam globe in her car yesterday over $200. Globe only fitted myself not lens just globe. How is it that rear tail lght globes can be $2-$3 and she dosnt even like the car a mistake o n my part I guess. Maybe I should kept the 91 Nissan Patrol that she loved.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Luxury is what you buy when you have real money ….prestige is what you buy on “equity maaaaate “

      • TT
        In the words of Wayne and Schuster in “”Rinse the blood off my Toga” ….Hey! That’s good! That’s very good! Can I have that?

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        WW Landrover probably the worst car I’ve owned. Had no tools in those days and wanted to put a 202 motor in, was told you need a conversion kit. Nope put in big winches in supply vessels for Woodside with out help so. Got the motor going on the ground, welded up on old scissor car jack, put in tool steel, bolted it to the motor and used the motor as a lathe and machined out the old weightlifting plate bolted to the flywheel for clutch spring clearance. Machining the outside balanced it up as well. The old Landy went great after that except for the half window frame falling off due to dissimilar metal corrosion.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        TT, LOL ed in appreciation and admiration. Maybe the smoke/steam funnel could have been a bit higher or at rear but hes probably used to low clouds over there anyhow.

      • LOL at Steam Powered LandRover… ScoMo could put a lump of coal in the passenger seat.

      • “Oops, not luxury, prestige. Is there a difference?”

        Simple marketing squared by say a Veblen metric is where some are told that objects can imbue humans with traits they lack or are insecure about.

        Learned this in Jr High School – year 7.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        WW One good thing about the 2a Landy was there was enough meat on the tyres for me to regroove with a 7” grinder, but not having the Salisbury diff had to keep spare welded up axles on board.

    • These days I try not to vent my spleen but rather to look beyond any perceived injustice (about which I might rant) and instead examine why it is that I feel this or that way on the topic.
      Our Social and Cultural mores are hard wired in ways that are very difficult to look beyond them even when they’re manifestly inequitable. Alpha male worship syndrome? I don’t know… but however you slice it we’re the ones that create the structures that reward the behavior that we than rant about.
      Oh almost forgot after struggling to write the post most times I decide it all intellectual wankery and hit the delete key.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Don’t hit the delete key, ( we’ve all done that ), because it will all be forgotten soon enough anyhow and in the meantime adds a bit of flavor.

    • •notices the notable absence of a Skippy post in this thread• hmmmm, curiouser and curiouser! 🤔

      • Too late …..

        Sorry but I was at work and left a bit early because I’m going in on burn goat day so I can hit the ground running when the boys rock up on Mon.

    • I like leaving rants when I am drunk and then find them the next day when not quite remembering ranting about it. 😀

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        That’s the best way. Besides, anyone who takes the comments section seriously probably has a noose around the neck while they’re typing…

      • It’s always a bonus if you stumble upon it the next day and think “hey, that was pretty good for a drunken monkey mashing the keyboard!” 😉

    • This is what the sociopaths rely on – grinding insightful outspokens down to impotence & being unable to maintain the rage……. I’m sure Reusa’s got some little blue pills that’ll keep things evergreen.

  6. Mining BoganMEMBER

    So, remember the story about the young couple who ruined their life and their parents lives because baby must have house? $800k they paid for a house in a $600k suburb. Well, a very,;VERY, similar house only a nice lob wedge away in the next cul-de-sac went for $580k. Geez those kids are toast.

    But not as toast as the old couple who didn’t want to give their house away. Failed auction, now waiting for “their” price. House three doors down auctioned and sold for 100 gorillas less than”their” price. Now another auction coming up over the road and one on a side street not far away. They’re both hoping for around the same as the one that sold. That old couple are going to follow this all the way down, not realising their retirement is disappearing quicker than the kids when they realise there’s no inheritance.

    Something has changed with rentals too. Never seen so many for lease signs sitting for so long. Crap houses though that never have any maintenance done…which means the majority. Everyone seems a bit down. I had two weeks holiday and since back am constantly bailed up with tales of woe.

    I think depression has hit the outer suburbs.

    • >Geez those kids are toast.
      hold the smashed avocado.

      Aldi sell sausages for $3 a pack. I’d like to see the chart of sales.

    • Another thing that doesn’t get much airplay is the impact of housing speculation on the quality of the housing stock. Holding old houses for capital speculation has resulted in plenty of great homes that just needed some love to be restored to nice places getting turned into places that need major work. We have owned a few places (to live in) over the years and typically buy old houses that someone is retiring out of. They are a bit run down, but loved and liveable immediately, and generally recoverable with a bit of amateur hard yacka. The ex rentals we have looked at over the years generally require major capital repairs and usually needed unwinding of cheap poorly done repairs and capital work. This is not the fault of the tenants, its just the way landlords manage the asset, they basically run down the value of the capital asset and hope to still make gains on the property. Something they can only do because of the dumb bubble.

      There are just so many ways that this speculative bubble is stupid. The mess it will leave from so many decades now is just depressing.

      • The ALPs NG rules will exacerbate that situation because repairs and maintenance effectively become non-deductible where the property is already negatively geared.

      • Nah Jason. It means useless loss-making landlords will sell up and someone who will actually take care of the property will buy it AND LIVE THERE THEMSELVES.

        What a remarkable concept.

      • Jason,
        If the NG rules mean that those who have no interest in being a landlord get out them it is a nice extra to increasing housing affordability. Too many people who are only looking for the tax minimisation and speculative gains are now land lords. If they have no interest in meeting their obligations, and are not skilled enough to make a profit from it without being subsidised, then let them fail. Get rid of these incentives and distortions and bring housing back to a utility instead of a speculative investment.

      • @Morgs I live in 1 of those bad rentals let to go to sh!t with bad amatuer cheap arse repairs. I would never buy this house! Ever… also I hate the landlord, it would burn me up giving him all my hard capital for his retirement. Prick. haha.

      • People have to remember that about 20 years ago heaps of intercity or CBD RE was where all the lowlife’s lived, everyone had moved to suburbia. Then with the advent of the FIRE sector template, where high paying jobs were back in the city, the whole intercity rejuvenation project started – see Trump in Adam Curtis last doco [honorable mention to Obama in his Chicago days].

        This then later became what some call gentrification.

      • @ Arrow and footsore:

        Not everyone making a NG loss is in it for tax minimisation. My mum bought an investment property 25 years ago (a 1br flat in West Ryde) and still has it. It was modestly negatively geared at the time (she wasn’t on a big salary) but it is positively geared now and it will be a material means of supporting her retirement in due course. She has had several periods of vacancy while she has renovated the place (new kitchen, new bathroom, new floorboards etc) and in those years she may well have slipped back into a tax loss for the year.

        The ALP rules will punish someone like her by making the cost of ownership in those early years, and those improvements, more expensive after tax.

        As I keep saying, when it comes to speculators, NG is not the problem, the CGT discount is.

      • Jason the whole point is to stop giving a tax break to investors who own property at the expense of people who don’t. It’s not “punishing” your mum. It is removing an unfair advantage. If it means landlording an established property is viable for fewer people, then good.

        Better than good.

      • And that’s just talking about older well built homes. What about the absolute garbage thats been built in the last ten years? Some of it will be lucky to last another ten…

      • lol. I’ve been in a few of them as well over the years, they don’t inspire landlord friendly thoughts.

    • the force is strong in Sydney. Last night went to friends for dinner was told by one lady that prices in Syd Southwest went up 6%. I tired to explain that her data is wrong as I follow southwest and that prices are down around 10% but she would not have it. She wants to buy IP.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Folk still want to listen to RE types, like the story yesterday of my work mate who has bought in Cairns because he’s been told that’s where the Chinese money is pouring into now.

        It’s going to take another 12 months of falls before the delusion is completely broken,

      • Hard to break a mania which has persisted for a generation.
        When the psychology breaks… wow… hold on to your hats

      • Faith in your new data, misplaced may be. As is your faith in the Moron Side of the Force.

      • I’ve got a nice bridge she might like to buy. She’d have to go to London to pick it up, though.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Cheers Mining, Cairns? I live here and wouldn’t buy now. Just hop’in we don’t lose too much if we ever have to sell.
        The Chinese are as jittery buying here as elsewhere and there is the Nova development right near Myers, that had targeted Asian investors/owners. Still hasn’t started three years after the fences went up and a showroom built. They are still advertising 1 beddy units for $460k. Would not pay $200k for one, but looks like is stalled and may not proceed.
        At the other end of the scale, we have the mad (imo) Syrian billionaire who has three huge developments in town (one completed, but still four large cranes and hundreds of trades going flat out) and is still buying land. Still he’s a billionaire and almost certainly knows how to accumulate money better than me, so what would I know?

        It’s only anecdata so far, but I have not seen any serious deterioration in the local economy. It seems much stronger than it should be even if most of my mates are on casual, zero hours. Seen an uptick in stuff for sale, and a huge rise in the number of RE listings, perhaps almost double average and some distressed vendors, but no panic. We run on different stuff up here, eh?

      • I was chatting with a builder from Cairns the other weekend.
        His prognosis was that it is lights out as soon as that Syrian chap is done putting up his two buildings in the city.
        They’re the only projects keeping the city ticking over at the moment.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yeah, Syrian dude is just a vibrant Hedley, soon to be leaving everyone in masses of debt.

        Old mate at work don’t care but. He wants tomorrow’s riches today.

    • Auction signs going up around our area(3185) at a rate l can’t remember. Mostly units( rental/ investment) but also some nice looking houses.
      Follows a pattern- many belongings out on footpath( always have a look- picked up some fantastic things over the years- furniture,light fittings,ornaments, really nice rugs).
      – then the clean up team, and a few plants stretched out at intervals.
      – then the auction sign.
      Were selling late last year, but for sale notices and failed auctions have abounded.

      • very quiet in my area (my walking path). Only two new signs in the last 2 months. few older ones that are all newly builts and been on the market for over 4 months now. Haven’t seen a single auction sign since that auction where other agents gatecrashed the auction and that was around end of Nov from memory. Volumes are down overall.
        I notice that For Lease signs stay much longer and quality of tenants that get to pick these houses is going down fast. Young working families being replaced by larger group of friends with a mix of working and non working druggies.
        Might end up staying here for another 15 months (trying to avoid 18) if prices keep dropping at decent clip as I think by then prices should be semi-inflated but low enough to pick a good quality home for around $500k around Mt Annan or Camden. If price falls stall then we will be moving away from this place.

      • Passed two home opens this morning in my local area. One had no cars parked out front except agent’s beemer. Other one had agent alone out the front looking exasperated playing with his phone.

        I didn’t slow down. Didn’t want them to tell the sellers “yeah we had a bit of interest”.

      • Arrow – you can’t afford to be poor in Cambra Town. Was told of a youngster looking to rent a 2 bed unit at the lower end of the price spectrum. She only found two that was within her budget but did not get to see either, one had 50 groups already booked to go through and the second had 70 groups. Must be all the uni students and graduate public servants crowding out that segment. Apparently she’s had to become a boomerang and move back in with the parents.

        Also I checked out at a couple of old townhouses in Woden last weekend for sale in the $550k range. The agents assumed everyone going through were investors. I spoke to a couple of women there and both of them said they were looking to buy a townhouse for their adult kids.

  7. Weekend property megathread

    -Auction attendance stories?
    -BBQ bears?
    -Discussions around the food table at a swingers party?

    I’m currently renting in what was 15 years ago a VERY middle of the road suburb in Brisbane (Coorparoo). Following some public transport updates, a shitload of ugly apartments and the property/population ponzi, it’s changed significantly into an area where
    1) There are beautiful pockets of lovely old renovated Queenslander houses
    2) There are areas that are basically little mumbai – for example I went for a run the other night and ran along a street which was basically occupied by many blocks of brick units with 6 in each. Each had at least 2 requisite ind!an families (mother/grandmother anyway, father was driving Uber) out the front.

    We’re just renting and saving for the time being. Housing sales here are insane. This joint just sold recently, unclear of price as it’s “contact agent”, but was advertised for $1,375mil. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-coorparoo-128555750

    • Yes, they are destroying Brisbane’s soul with awful urban high density in the (once) green suburbs, as they destroyed Sydney and Melb before it. If we cannot stop the developer/extreme migration complex all will be lost.

    • Yeah FONGO is hitting home. Just had a couple of good friends over, both their IPs are up for sale now. Hope they get something good out of it, but at least they are getting rid of debt.

    • For those that can’t afford a house, a unit is a sad compromise, given the blocks are filling up with loud 1ndians who talk at all hours of the day on their balconies or out the front of their units. Plus there is the cooking smells. And you will never get a ‘hello’ from them.

      • Funnily enough my upstairs neighbours are !ndian. He works as an uber driver, she doesn’t work. VERY loud conversations, lots of screaming (on her behalf) and tears. wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a bit of the old Dowry abuse for visa.

      • My dream neighbour is one who doesn’t say hello to me every time I stick my head out the front door. D-head next is constantly being friendly and trying to chat. Aggravating.

  8. ChristopherJMEMBER

    Re possums falling out of trees. In December, we had that 4 day heatwave up our way and we lost about 50 per cent of the flying foxes, young and mothers and there was evidence everywhere of birds that lost their young.
    Today, it’s raining again up here, and liking a game of golf, am already thinking about what I am going to do instead….
    But that’s my grumble and I passed a very interesting 40 mins or so watching Gideon Levy, an Israeli Journalist, speak truthfully about the occupation and about his own country and people, of which and whom, he is clearly not proud. Inspiring as his talk is, he was also giving his address at the National Press Club in Washington. A courageous man, particularly as the US is starting to pass laws making it a criminal offence to incite hate or a boycott of the apartheid state of Israel:

    https://youtu.be/MPt8c_93zM0

    This morning, I found a lot of responses and comments to me in my spam folder… no longer

    Cheers all

  9. haroldusMEMBER

    Here’s a good discussion of pickups for beginners, with a cool bit of history.

    http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190307-the-electric-spark-that-changed-the-guitar-forever

    Fun fact, early fender colours were all car paint colours!

    (And for the guitar nerds out there, I use a DiMarzio Super Distortion in the bridge for crunch/rhythm and have split the hummy for single coil in the neck for high gain lead.

    I find it difficult to get the required crunch from single coils in the bridge, so use hummies or P90s. I do most of my lead in the neck, and hummies and P90s are a bit muddy there, therefore my preference for a sweet single coil there.

    I am a clean/crunch/lead player with a preference to use amp gain, not pedal gain. Big gigs I use Marshall TSL 60 or 100, small gigs a Vox10W one channel, using the amp for crunch, rolling off the pots for clean, and pushing the amp with an Xotic SL drive for lead.

    Anybody who wants to try a P90 set could do worse than these
    http://www.tonerider.com/rebel-90
    I’ve tried Phat Cats and Gibbo P94s, but the tonerider wins!

    Next I’m toying with a set of Kinman P90bucker bridge and Twangbucker neck.

    What a nerd I am.
    )

  10. Yesterday I saw Deliveroo guy in World Tower toilets getting out of the toilet cubicle (his delivery bag on his back) straight passed me while I was washing my hands and went out the door.
    Never checked if there was a hook to hang the bag in there or if he placed it on the floor. But he did not wash his hands.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Betcha the roo thought it was another one of those bloody vibrants coming to take their land away.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        My younger brother got attacked by a roo, jumped in the water and the roo followed him in. Got some nasty gashes.

      • Ermo,

        Nope not I

        Judging from the graceful descent and proximity to the bullseye, it looks like Sweeper.

        Secondary evidence is the intensity and feral nature of the defence of the Modern Marsupials Territory.

        There have been similar attacks all week.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Remember once on a bush walk …..a roo on the path …..he stood there …and for a moment I thought… (in best Aussie language )…. he’s gonna go mate ..Picked up a rock and said .right mate …you wanna go do ya ?…………..the roo thought better ….and give way ……only time I thought that those cuddly Strayan animals have a dark side ……

    • I recognised that spot instantly – Orroral Valley near Canberra – there are millions of roos there. Bit out of the way but good place to take overseas friends if you want to be 100% guaranteed of seeing some.

      • Old Honeysuckle Creek Observatory? I’m just guessing, lived in Cambra a few years around the turn of the millennium.
        Cambra’s not bad at all, I liked it in equal parts to being frustrated by it. Great topography, shit vibrancy (at least, when I was there). The fires buggered it for me because I heart MTB. Burned all the great old, original Stromlo pine-forest trails. It was time to move on.
        You meet a lot of ‘roos on an MTB. None so far have given me grief, but the large males inspire cautious respect.

      • Honeysuckle Creek is the other abandoned one, this is Orroral nearby. Canberra is definitely more exciting than it was (and separately, it’s also much more vibrant). But it ain’t no big city that’s for sure.

        I believe MTBers now go to Mt Majura but I’m a bit out of touch tbh. 😁

      • mild colonialMEMBER

        There’s a whole rebuilt mtb world back at Mt Stromlo.
        I didn’t recognise that it was Orroral. funny.

  11. Mystic MedusaMEMBER

    Just read these poignant words:

    “The essence of the Ponzi scheme is not simply its statistical unsustainability. The essence of the Ponzi scheme is that it is like an addictive drug. Once someone enters into it, he finds it psychologically impossible to face the reality of the unsustainable statistics of the program. He refuses to get out in time. His participation in the scheme fundamentally changes his outlook toward reality. He is no longer capable of being persuaded that he has made a fool of himself by entering into such a scheme. This includes the founder of the scheme.”

    Gary North, Economist.

    • Two They Might Be Giants songs on that always make think of the psychology of the bubble and the political-economical and media promotion of it.

      Spiralling Shape
      https://youtu.be/2aeOBZ7gVPY
      “TMBG wishes to make the case that not all of our songs have a single strict interpretation, but “Spiraling Shape” is generally about the fervent embrace and then abandonment of a cultural “bubble.” It might be “smart” drugs, it might be virtual whatever, or it could simply be spin art. Steve Light adds his snazzy vibraphone to this swirling cut.”

      The Bells are Ringing.
      https://youtu.be/f-gnmNyPy0U
      “A song about the seductive appeal of social order (as opposed to individual freedom), and an expression of the terrifying and exciting power of propaganda. The part of the bells is sung by Amanda Homi.”

      • Would you agree footie that reality is a framework and the next question is whom concocts it and to what propose ….

        I would only add that freedom and liberty are the hallmarks of an ideologue and such devices are quite watery and slippery ….

      • Sorry mate, but I just have to add that methodological individualism or atomtistic individualism is a foundational aspect of neoliberalism aka corporatism e.g. the perspective is sold as a matrix where everyone can receive their rewards in a Spencer like view, yet this does not reconcile that some are born into or that institutions can leverage power over lessors from an almost bio-political back drop.

        Which again gets right back to concepts like freewheeling interaction has some sort of equilibrium aspect which is Newtonian or Bayesian in application from a physics aspect wrt to how the human brain actually works or the environmental back drop.

      • I saw a poster for them (one of my sisters favourite bands) touring in Aus it seems.

      • Mystic MedusaMEMBER

        @Footsore, I love this connective leap. I have often thought the Australian, Sydney in particular feelings around property and real estate would probably meet the definition of addiction in any diagnostic manual. Or a religious cult.

        I was at a dog park in Bondi this week and found myself in a circle of people murmuring iterations such as “it will come back” like a fervent mantra.

        The prayer circle was interrupted by a man saying “it won’t” – with some authority. Shocked at a heathen in their midst, the group stared aghast (I was pretending to be super interested in disentangling a knot in my dog’s coat at this juncture) at the interloper.

        One of the faithful asked why he thought that and he said he worked in legal dept of (a major bank) and is working overtime as they’ve been told to prep for a cutting of 14% of their workforce by new fin year.

        The prayer group returned to their incantations, as if unable to parse this information or perhaps refusing to contemplate such heresy. “It’s cyclical. It will come back. It has to.” Then someone said their cousin who worked at a (2nd tier) bank got made redundant as whole credit card dept being closed down “but she’ll be fine as she has two investment properties.”

        Cue wise nodding.

      • mild colonialMEMBER

        Beautiful post Mystic, please more more more. I have a slight addiction to watching the bubble pop.

    • Beware. Greed, fear, folly. The Moron side are they. Once you start down the Moron path, forever will it dominate your destiny…. do not… do not underestimate the powers of the RBA or suffer Nathan’s fate you will.

    • “Newcastle and Lake Macquarie’s median house price fell 7.3 per cent to $547,100 in the year to March”

      Pretty misleading when the falls only started around September and have been steeper than Sydney from peak.

      So so much construction around Newy and surrounding areas too, with more yet to commence.

      Already know of projects falling over or stalled.. see Aqua Apartments in Warners Bay.

    • Ah. My sister-in-law and her hubby were jack of Sydney prices so bought a house in one of the Lake Macquarie towns about 9 months ago. We did tell them at the time that they should hold on.

      • I reckon this effect drove the price rises in that area – and makes sense it should reverse just as fast once Sydney falls.

      • You only have to look at areas of Newcastle close to the freeway (Fletcher, where people are paying $600-800k to live near a swamp) and train stations to see priced out Sydneysiders who FOMOed hard.

        Given the poor labour market, I wonder what % of them are stuck commuting to Sydney, end up burning out and start questioning their decision when prices in Sydney are tanking..

        Seems just like they drove prices up in regional areas after being priced out, similar would occur on the way down?

      • I looked at a few Newcastle properties a couple of years ago. I was so pissed at Sydney prices. But in Newcastle I’d look at $400k homes and they sold for $650k.. in hindsight so glad I didn’t buy them. Bad idea. I’ll dig out the links.

      • It is said that a bull market climbs the wall of worry and a bear market slides the slope of hope.

        There will be sufficient numbers of small cyclical bull markets within a secular bear, so that the punters will have little trouble in following the slope of hope all the way down to the bottom.

    • Oh.. Also passed a couple of open homes this morning.. Completely dead with bored agents out front playing on their phones.

      I remember one of them had a similarly quiet open home a few weeks ago.

      Also noticing more properties advertised for sale for months, then quietly pulled off the market..

    • J BauerMEMBER

      Building 2 new coal fired powerstations in Cessnock isn’t going to help. At least the miners who live there can reap what they sow.

    • “The smart investors rarely sell, and start getting excited about the market we are currently in to make another purchase.”

      Quote of the day

      • That is one of my quiet hopes that keeps me going. That a lot of this speculative money has been poured back into buying more IP’s with equity. So when it all comes crumbling down, they don’t get to escape with a free retirement.

      • “While the Hunter’s property party may be over, commentators are urging people not to be alarmed because the market is nowhere near crisis.”

        Interesting, eh?

        So, the party may be over but people should not panic because the market is not yet nowhere near crisis. And I bet many people will not panic….. just yet.

        The trouble is, when they think is the right time to panic it will be so late in the cycle that there would be little point in panicking. And I bet many people will still find a way to panic.

        That’s just how it is and this time is no different.

  12. btw – if anyone remembers when I asked for small stocks ideas.. Ended up buying Newcrest Mining. Not exactly small stock..
    Still looking at BNO – might put $2k as this is really long shot. Most small biotechs never ever bring anything to market.
    And considering to up my stake in ALK – I like their Dubbo project. current China/US relationship makes this rare earth project very viable.

      • Cameco may be a safer play, though it is not a small cap.

        If you think about it, nuclear power is pretty much the antithesis of a housing bubble.

        A housing bubble is only supported by the sentiment and has no fundamentals behind it.

        The sentiment surrounding nuclear power is terrible but there is nothing wrong with its fundamentals.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Hope you do better than me Lithium exploration 20 cents now am selling for 5 cents.

      • hence why I put small amounts. I am aware of the risks and don’t over do no matter how exciting or tempting might get.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Nik you could buy my small amount if you want as I’m just consolidating and cleaning out.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        They probably work better than the home made lathe, home made mill, home made cylindrical grinder, home made surface grinder, home made large drill press etc etc etc that I made. Glad have to good stuff now.

    • One of my speccies – SEI – was up 40% yesterday.

      Will probably lose all those gains on Monday.

    • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

      Don’t remember seeing your initial post. I have some shares in Actinogen Medical (ACW) currently 5.5 c They are doing an Alhzeimers/dementia Phase 2 double blind study to provide results Q2 2019 – end May or June.

      • https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190214/pdf/442lwsb9bcfr9f.pdf

        Plus few other things like.. for few years they’ve been saying they are on the lookout for m&a but have not rushed to make a move. That tells me the management is focused on long term future rather short term share price gain. It appears NCM will throw money if they only believe they can draw strong synergies from the acquisition. Not many companies are run like that.
        CEO’s interview on Bloomberg confirmed above. They just look to be one of those very few companies left that focus on building long lasting business.
        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-02-15/newcrest-mining-remains-cashflow-positive-ceo-says-video

        Having so many assets in the volatile part of the world is a risk though.

      • listen to the CEO interview.. he knows there are some really strong candidates but what is the point of buying if you can’t get the money back?? I would not call that too conservative, I’ll call it prudent.
        I think NCM do have unique capabilities to discover deep hidden ore bodies that gives them advantage over many other gold mining houses. They learnt a lot from Cadia and are now taking advantage of such knowledge. Hence why their main focus is organic growth.
        As you can see some large gold houses are trying to merge now and main synergies they talk about are reducing administrative overheads and old style synergies like sharing infrastructure, combining nearby mines to produce higher value blends/concentrates etc..
        NCM talks about adding value in terms of doubling or tripling reserves or substantially reducing production costs by using NCM technologies/processes.
        At the end I may end up being totally wrong and lose my shirt but I do plan to buy more into any dip.

        My main worry is that NCM has lot of tenements in South America where Australia is seen as US lap dog and change in governments there may trigger nationalization of such assets. Indonesia is also a risk.
        On positive note they are moving into north America and it looks they are confident that they can discover tier1 or tier2 deposits there.

    • What I find curious is that its the same for the United States of America e.g. a trade block …… with winnars and loosers depending on how slavish some are to Corporatism …. frack me baby … frack me … oh like that … yessssss ….

      • I emailed the Zali team today asking if they sell “Go Zali” caps (which I would be happy to wear around my suburb which is in Warringah).

        Seems that they don’t. But in classic North Shore style, they do have Go Zali keep cups.

    • God, we can only hope. That guy is probably the most toxic politician we have ever had. I’d put 80% of whats wrong in the Libs down to that one horrible guy. He just needs to go.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        I’d put 80% of whats wrong in the Libs down to that one horrible guy.

        It’s really, really not.

      • If you want good apples forget going to the barrel (Labor or Liberals) you need to go to the tree. Vote #1 Sustainable Australia.

      • agree but also agree with comments below..
        overall I think it is too late for that party.. they just need to go away. someone should start new party with liberal values.

      • Abbot is now 61 and been in the LNP for 25 years I think. He is an elder of the party and has been shaping it since before the rodent won the PMship. The guy is a fvcking disaster of a person.

      • Sure! We are so much better off with someone who has no principles and believes in nothing – like Shorten

      • That’s not true Flawse, shorten believes in long platitudes around social justice, wage gaps and high immigration to sustain growth. 😁.

        On the plus side curbing negative gearing is a good thing and if he can raise minimum wage to help wages growth and potentially curb large corporate lobbying we may be better off. Especially if he goes after Mega Bank.

        I may not love him, but I see him as better than the current lot personally. And I’d back a carbon tax and investment in renewables.

    • “We were working on The Heights at a time when a lot of division was in the world — Brexit, Trump,” said Que Min Luu, executive producer of Scripted Drama for ABC.”

      Division driven by the left.

      • Where is this left you speak of … oh you mean the corporatist lefties looking to burnish their ID political brand for profit …. chortle …

    • No surprises here from the ABC, overdrive brainwashing propaganda, for the new imposed ‘brown man’ Australia.

  13. The conga line of MMT critics – marching into oblivion –

    “The rising popularity of MMT is bringing out a lot of people from the woodwork who have ignored our work until now but who, for one reason or another, feel they have to have a stake in the game or look stupid.

    And, they mostly end up looking foolish given the quality of their criticisms.

    I am not for one moment saying that the body of work we have developed is a theory of everything. In particular, it does not imply that politics is without constraints – real or otherwise.

    Policy making is not like that at all.

    A lot of artistry is required to implement significant economic interventions. That vulnerability is not confined to MMT.

    So to criticise MMT on the grounds that the politics might be complex or thorny is not criticising MMT at all.

    It is a reflection of the difficulties that arise when vested interests go head to head to get their pet projects ahead in the queue.”

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=41727

    • ChristopherJMEMBER

      Thank you, skip. In ’08, as I know you remember, there was nary a mention of MMT in msm. Now, it’s regularly in the news and powerful entities like the Fed and the Bank of England are forced to confront the possibilities it presents. They continue to obfuscate, but they can no longer hold their hands to their ears.

      Yes, the argument is turning from: you are spreading lies, to saying, well we could print money and spend it, but the politics or the law won’t allow it, or the system doesn’t work, or, are you crazy, don’t you understand about inflation? See the same memes now every week.

      Powerful forces, eh?

      • I think the salient point is why some consider an autonomous sovereign currency issuer can not afford basic social goods which benefit social cohesion and its national businesses without resorting to lowest common denominator in offering itself up to absentee ownership from overseas.

        That said international trade is beneficial, but, costs must be weighted in the short and long term – never know when some might pull the plug and their you are ….

      • The whole Anglosphere is used to getting ‘stuff’ for nothing. MMT just the same formula on steroids.

      • Flawse ….

        I really have a hard time following your unsupported moral argument.

        MMT in of itself is not a moral issue, how it is administered could be considered a moral acid test. One would think with the lowering life standards in the U.S. or the increasing consolidation of wealth the administration is where the umbrage should be directed at and not some assumed agency wrt MMT.

      • Skippy
        I have argued in great detail concerning MMT, what it says it is, and what it actually is. Just because you don’t read any opinion different to your own and you absolutely refuse to actually think rationally, don’t give me crap about unsupported argument.
        I have argued clearly that there is nothing new in Sectoral analysis. In fact my arguments about the necessity for BALANCE in any economy are absolutely steeped in it. My argument is the application of MMT by EVERY MMT supporter I have ever read. They like sectoral analysis until it becomes unfavourable to their argument. They then abandon all pretence of real sectoral analysis in favour of the BS that we can print all of our own money we like to fulfill our political and social agenda. Thus we arrive at, exactly the same as your broad brush neoliberals, there is no such thing as the external account. CAD’s don’t matter, Foreign ownership of everything is fine. Trashing the currency and economy and passing the cost of our profligacy onto our kids and grand-kids is just fine.
        In all this they are just neoliberals on steroids. MMTers, as near as I can see, all think we should have zero interest rates. They also believe that governments can print all the money they need for whatever deficit. As a result, MMT as it is now advocated, is just an extreme form of what we already have. More consumption! Faster use of our world! More and more foreign debt! More and more globalist BS! (It doesn’t matter who owns the nation) I think it is becoming clear that China, Russia et al do not believe in the same BS we do. It is becoming clear that China Russia et al are not particularly interested in maintaining American power which has been heavily reliant on the Reserve currency staus. It is clear that China doesn’t believe in the freedoms we used to believe in – we are getting closer and closer to their system. But we are quite happy for them to own more and more of our nation.
        None of these things matter to MMT protagonists. It’s all good! They deny what is supposedly the very basis of their own economic theory in favour of a shallow stupid political agenda.

      • This is not a case of changing fundamentals …. its a case of understand the political administration of a system to an end.

      • skippy – you have zero understanding. I can’t remember ever reading an MMT zealot that has. Not that I suppose that is much worse than the whole modern Western economic monstrosity

      • So – you – always say flawse …

        I have problems with your off the cuff remarks which leave no attribution or means to further investigate, where and when you got them, or the authors of them – everything is couched in you said, everyone knows, all else is madness.

        Seriously flawse … its not hard to look into the MMT thingy, where its foundations come from, evidence to support its views, reasons for them, suggestions about what to do, and historical examples to support it. Seems you only have two main grievances: RAT and CAD w/ a commodity money perspective.

        Additionally I don’t understand your lack of attention to say the dominate economics which set the stage, missed the GFC, compounded error, uses quasi monetarist models to dictate policies and some how this all about MMT or PK.

        Sometimes I get the idea that your saying economics is all about money and society must obey ….

      • Skippy
        That’s because you NEVER read and you NEVER THINK!
        In blogs that preceded MB, before the GFC, I was a trenchant critic of modern econo9mic stupidity I have been a trenchant critic of it for 50 years. The fact that you don’t understand this is evidence that you never bother to read or think. You mouth off and you cut and paste, repeating BS that you’ve read. Sure, what I write comes out of my own head after my head has been filled by wide reading of economic and social philosophies. I’ve thought about this stuff pretty carefully for 50 years.
        Why do you refuse to deal with the arguments???? Ah! MMTers don’t have to deal with reality. You just have to believe in the Magic Money Tree and the world is lovely……Well it ain’t!
        Why do you flatly refuse to include the issues of Zero/Negative RAT, Foreign Debt and CAD’s. Of course! Silly me! You’re an MMT zealot – real issues can’t be allowed to interfere with your political agenda.
        You need to get your nose out of bools that you only read to reinforce your own ideas.

        P.S. I’m the bloke who says that printing money, under ANY economic flag, is NOT the solution. The solutions lie in the best allocation and efficient use of resources. I’m the bloke who believes in the conservation of resources as far as possible. I’m the bloke who says that monetary and fiscal policies do not operate in some sort of magic fantasy6 world where the use of them can magically make world right! Monetary and fiscal policy should necessarily be the slaves to the actual resources available.

      • I’m also interested in MMT but only have learner plates in this area. I appreciate the conversation here.

        The proponents consider than any amount of local currency can be invented for a sovereign government to achieve its social and economic aims. Depending on the “slackness” of the economy, the stimulus of this extra money being used in the economy is absorbed until it starts to affect inflation. History suggests countries that have this have failed to do this, and resulted in failed states.

        Neoliberal capitalism is has successfully engineered western economies to a globalised trickle up system. By extracting most of the wealth from the retail economy, inflating assets and leaving a wake of low pay, unemployment and financial hardship on a large proportion of the populace.

        Perhaps modern society is only realising that the globalisation of work, automation and the rise of the financial services industries aren’t compatible with our monetary system.

        In this light, thoughts about how to provide a sustainable work/life/planet balance to the population through adjustments like a living wage, basic income, are appropriate. If neoliberal capitalism is ending and the trajectory for the majority of the population is gig work in a scarce economy, then why wouldn’t people start to question our monetary mechanism.

        As an armchair economist, I see the way central banks, government and international debt work. One could say the way that money is created through debt shows the whole system to be a sham. We may observe the relationship between the Fed and usgov and how that polity deals with its sick and homeless. Or the way the Unwealthy EU states have their societies controlled by their central banks.

        This is perhaps the reason for more interest in MMT lately. The casual observer can see the debuachery with which our governments waste money. They see the ability for central banks to create as much as is necessary to ensure the population are all educated, employed and safe. They see the the current govt choose to foist austerity on the population while siphoning vast sums to friends and donors.

        If some learned people come along and suggest that as an organized society we can adjust how we make money work better for everyone, then I’m willing to listen. I greatly respect Bill Mitchell’s work on MMT and “our” Steve Keens revelations on sovereign debt.

    • Skippy (just to make sure you get this – that you won’t read or think is your problem)
      That’s because you NEVER read and you NEVER THINK!
      In blogs that preceded MB, before the GFC, I was a trenchant critic of modern economic stupidity I have been a trenchant critic of it for 50 years. The fact that you don’t understand this is evidence that you never bother to read or think. You mouth off and you cut and paste, repeating BS that you’ve read. Sure, what I write comes out of my own head after my head has been filled by wide reading of economic and social philosophies. I’ve thought about this stuff pretty carefully for 50 years.
      Why do you refuse to deal with the arguments???? Ah! MMTers don’t have to deal with reality. You just have to believe in the Magic Money Tree and the world is lovely……Well it ain’t!
      Why do you flatly refuse to include the issues of Zero/Negative RAT, Foreign Debt and CAD’s. Of course! Silly me! You’re an MMT zealot – real issues can’t be allowed to interfere with your political agenda.
      You need to get your nose out of books that you only read to reinforce your own ideas.
      P.S. I’m the bloke who says that printing money, under ANY economic flag, is NOT the solution. The solutions lie in the best allocation and efficient use of resources. I’m the bloke who believes in the conservation of resources as far as possible. I’m the bloke who says that monetary and fiscal policies do not operate in some sort of magic fantasy6 world where the use of them can magically make world right! Monetary and fiscal policy should necessarily be the slaves to the actual resources available.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Bill Mitchell reads and thinks, flawse, and so do I. If you are to your word, I think you might find some answers in a three part essay:

        http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=40313

        Now you might remark that Bill’s niche has been a good little earner for him, but the meme that the Australian (US, Canadian, NZ or UK) Government spending programs are constrained by taxes and debt is old and just plain wrong. It is why we complain that the government doesn’t spend it’s resources properly because we only see what’s in the (inadequate) bucket, not all the potential things it could spend money on before getting to capacity limits and potential inflation. Hence the politics is all about managing the deficit and who gets what part and how much of the austerity pie, a total waste of effort

        Thank you for continuing to challenge this important topic.

      • Chris …

        I think the challenge is for some to stop looking at money as a resource and not actual resources.

  14. ChristopherJMEMBER

    Finding stuff to watch on Netflix… well, it seems to consume as much time as the watching.

    Still, it’s only $10 or so per month. The current Netflix doco on the F1. Better than the F1 itself

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        I think you mistook what I was talking about, skippy. I am just enjoying something on Netflix, when I am having trouble finding good stuff, even at the low price point.

        So, something I like is worth sharing in this place as I feel I have something in common with many here, and I occasionally feel appreciated.

        I have no views on the F1 worth saying here

    • Is ‘Counterpart’ on netflix? I enjoyed that one.
      ‘Shirkers’ was something I saw on it and enjoyed.
      ‘Annihilation’ was also good.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Thank you, footsore. I’ll check those out. The real thing I miss is the EPL, just get snippets on the net these days. Not going to give those pay tv kants any of my hard earned

      • CanuckDownUnder

        Counterpart is available on SBS On Demand, I’ve heard good things and it’s on my viewing list.

        If anyone is into Nordic Noir I’d recommend Cardinal, which is basically a Canadian take on the genre set in northern Ontario. It’s also available on SBS they just added the third season which I plan to start tonight.

      • I liked Counterpart especially the way it expands on the old East Germany vs West Germany theme.
        As I see it these two world views that split apart are an Analogy for the East/West Germany division. Two brothers separated by a wall both optimizing their lives as the two different systems develop.
        Shortly after the wall fell I lived for a while in a hotel in Nekarsulm where a lots of East German construction workers were also staying. It was very enlightening to down some beers after work and hear all their stories. It was very clear that Germany post war was very much One People living under two different systems the rorts that each side developed were very much crafted around the rules / functioning of their specific systems but their attitudes, work ethics, moral values were so similar it was scary.
        I think this is what Counterpart is really examining with the concept of a single world that splits into two.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Check out Norsemen!

      Excellent self deprecating nordic humour. They acknowledge their fierce past and and current feels-based society with a wry grin.

    • Interesting that the doco Root Cause got taken off Netflix after about 2 weeks, I was half way through watching it and even then they removed it. If you have root canals and health problems I highly recommend watching it it’s on youtube now.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Just watched “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” with the 11 rear old daughter.
      She thought the first 2 were funny but found the fate that befell the armless and legless thespian upsetting.

      Ya never really knew who you could trust in those days darling. I say
      Im Glad I don’t live in those stupid cowboy day she angrily replys.

      I wonder to myself if we are really that much better today.

    • Hi ChristopherJ – we watch EPL & CL on Optus TV through appleTV – it’s actually a great coverage (3 min, 20 min & full match replays). Post world cup debacle the thing seems to work well. Doesn’t cost anything – when our telstra mobile was up we switched to optus and the package is the same with OptusTV thrown in. Still on telstra for everything else.

  15. Went to 2 open houses in the inner west today.

    One in Stanmore, 3 bed semi detached, livable but needs new kitchen and bathrooms Asking 1.8M-2M. About 10 people through when I was there. I think owners in denial. Saw a much bigger, better presented place around the corner go for 2.1 9 months ago.

    Another in lilyfield in Charlotte st. Asking 1.65M. Didnt go in, got to Charlotte street, which was a dead end street off a very busy road and decided I could not be bothered to park. Total cluster of a street. Jammed with cars. Seemed to be a quite a few people milling around the house.

    There are quite a few properties in Stanmore and Petersham that have been on the market for 2+ months as far as I can see.

    • 42 Lincoln Street or 161 Corunna Rd?

      First is ok, 2nd one is a dump that’s been on the market since October.

      Its not 16 Corunna is it? That is not the first time that particular property has come on the market in the last 6 months. Try try try again.

      • @Bruce yeah, that house ain’t worth anything near 2 million. Stanmore/Petersham have dropped close to 20% now, and the only reason people were looking there was because they were priced out of Annandale/Newtown/Camperdown. Its only 167 sq metres….that is well below the average for Stanmore. Also the street is ugly, its relatively far from the station, and Stanmore has a crap collection of cafes and other services. 2 million for a maxed out three bedder on a small block that needs a new kitchen and bathroom? Nope. Also, the current owners recently had a D.A knocked back for expansion.

  16. @d1234567890 I know you frequently ask for weekend anecdotes. Just finished watching the wood chopping competitions at the Red Hill Show. Lots of fun and lots of Aussie culture on display (including one teenage wood chopper with a mullet). There are worse ways to spend a Saturday afternoon after a 3 hour shift at work.

    • I actually didn’t disagree with these kids saying they didn’t want to work to death. Would rather spend time with friends and family.

      Sometimes I feel like that. Haha.

      • If jobs weren’t enough for rent+food+bills, i’d happily bludge at home working on my programming.

        Government funds efficiently allocated to meaningful R&D, who woulda thought?

        Better than p1ssing it against the wall on football stadiums or importing vibrants.

        Probably some retard FTA law against doing that lol 😉

    • That guy is so hard to watch. Can’t even read….. Typical that an Aussie moves overseas because it’s too expensive here and then does the very thing he whinges about by speculating in real estate.

      • rj2k000MEMBER

        Most of his vids are reading from a news article.
        I usually stop there, then look up the article myself, then look at the viewer comments on the youtube.

  17. Domain clearance rates:
    Syd 55%
    Melb 48%
    ACT 28%

    Syd only 305 reported results of 530. Lol. Seems certain to revise down into 40s.

    Public holiday in Vic and ACT so v low volumes and not that meaningful… but still, a beautiful set of numbers!

    • Shane Oliver thinks Sydney will end up at mid 40s, melb in low 40s.
      “Prelim Domain auction clearance rates. Syd 55% (=final ~46%, last wks final 56%). Mel 48% (=final ~41%, last wks final 48%). Sales volumes remaining weak. Tight credit,record unit supply,sharp fall in foreign demand,-ve gearing+CGT uncertainty, etc continuing to impact.”

      Seasonal bounce done?

    • bzunicaMEMBER

      In Hornsby area of Sydney. Family in my townhouse complex have their place on the market, going to auction next week unless sold earlier. Asked if they’d had any decent offers, reply was “only a couple of really low offers, but nothing serious”. I thought maybe the low offers is all it’s worth…

    • Capital Appreciation

      Even the REA.com.au clearance rate for Canberra is woeful this week at 38%. Quite a few withdrawn or sold prior, even at the more affordable end of the market! I’m surprised for a long weekend why they bothered auctioning as many as they did.

      Noticed a couple more capital losses with units/townhouses in Watson. This one sold at auction last weekend just below the off the plan price from 2010 – what a great investment!
      https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/68-ian-nicol-street-watson-canberra-176368745

      And this one (not an auction) sold over 15K below its off the plan price from 2012 – another top investment
      https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/68-ian-nicol-street-watson-canberra-176368745

      @LSWCHP, I note that the property for auction in Campbell you mentioned earlier in the week was withdrawn. I’d say they’ll need to shave about 10% or more off their original price expectations. Just about everything priced over 1 million in Canberra is off around 10% from the peak last year.

      • CA – I think you doubled up on the same link … but thanks nevertheless. Just going on a couple of townhouses I looked at in Mawson last week it would appear that Watson may be quite a bit cheaper than down south. The Watson place is a bit smaller and further away from decent shops than the Mawson ones I looked at but then again there are not thousands of newly constructed units coming on the market in south Woden as there are in North Canberra and Gunghanistan.

    • with only 57% of results reported and they can only fake 55% clearance rate?? lol

      • I like this quote in particular:

        “The apartment had been renovated in order to close a sale, and the home had not been lived in since the refurbishment.

        “It is very uncommon to get an older block that has a renovated apartment,” Mr Rendina said. “The vendors chose to renovate it before selling it – it was an investment for them.”

        Pity it passed in!

        Toast.

      • What amuses me is the photos of elated couples after spending almost 1M. If that were me it would be a look of “what the fvck did I just do?”

      • I thought this quote was even better. The false hope of property riches in the future!

        Due to the apartment block’s small size, he said there was medium-term potential for the entire block to be redeveloped.

        “If the owners all get together, and we’ve been liaising with a couple of them, and sell, it could sell to a developer for a big sum,” he said.

        “That’s great value in itself. Whoever is prepared to landbank could be sitting on TattsLotto numbers.

        “It could happen in the next five to 10 years. It’s just too valuable to let go.”

        There is the “don’t want to give it away” line. But to buy thinking you *might* band together with every other punter to flog the lot to a developer.

        Now that’s wishful thinking!

    • Only a few weeks ago, Sydney was falling more than 4.3% qoq, now it’s slowed to less than 3.7%. It’s clear the bust is slowing, probably getting close to the bottom. If you don’t buy now, you run a serious risk of being on the wrong side of history.

      • Yeah nah. It’s seasonal factors causing falls to slow – the falls slowed at this precise time last year too.

        Then they accelerated again. Still falling.

        Why would prices turn around? None of the factors causing price falls have changed. Tighter credit, disappearing Chinese buyers, negative sentiment shift. All still there.

  18. haroldusMEMBER

    top EXCEL tips

    hitting F4 while active in the cell reference up the top will cycle absolute references (eg from A1 to $A$1 etc)

    also hitting TAB will autocomplete predicted formulas eg typing VLOO – it predicts VLOOKUP, it then autocompletes the formula to VLOOKUP(etc

    you’re welcome!

  19. Latest propaganda piece, hmmm anything to do with the Chinese setting up two coal power plants up there? Went there last week, what a dump.

    https://www.theherald.com.au/story/5942080/hunter-property-market-downturn-an-upside-for-some-buyers/?cs=3968

    “We’ve been keeping an eye on the market for the last couple of years and we got really serious about seven months ago doing lots of hunting and research,” Mr Bradley said. “We wanted to get out and rent but we knew there was no way we’d save a deposit if we did.”

    HIGH school sweethearts Jadon Bradley and Chloe Brown were determined not to be squeezed out of the property market by soaring prices.
    Not wanting to be trapped long-term in the rental market, the 22 year olds decided to stay at home with their parents to save a deposit for their first home.

  20. Vibrancy update!!

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/gang-of-six-punch-sexually-assault-women-in-brutal-cbd-attack-20190309-p512zz.html

    A gang of six males sexually assaulted one woman and punched another in the face in a brutal overnight attack in central Melbourne.

    Police say the same group may be responsible for a string of robberies across the city on Friday night and Saturday morning.

    One of the offenders is described as being African in appearance, aged in his late teens

    What about the others???? All wh!teys I assume, NOT.

    • Unreal isn’t it? I wonder how much longer before anti vibrancy rallies kick off? Just wait for bad economic times.. it’s gonna get uglier.

      • My sincere hope is that an anti vibrancy rally kicks off at the ballot boxes for the Federal election. Getting Latham into the LC in NSW (rabid idiot that he is) would be a good step and an interesting gauge of voter sentiment on this issue for the Fed election.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Yes Dr d ….he is getting my vote …….he needs a platform for his views which are the views of many …..and he is not a rabid idiot …he is more the political savant ……and will be most entertaining and useful on the evening news ….if they allow him airtime ……which I doubt …..

      • Tailor the main thing will be access to Parliamentary privilege, as he will be boycotted by the MSM. I suspect he is champing at the bit at the prospect of all out mudslinging without fear of legal action. Anyhoo, I shall be putting him number 1.

    • Is our refugee programme setting people up for failure? Is it cruel to let them in, and despite all the support they get from Australia, this is the result? Perhaps we should be supporting more refugees in more appropriate secondary countries nearby to their home countries until it is safe to be resettled back in their home countries. Maybe that is really the kinder thing to be doing for everyone involved.

    • Speaking of Vibrancy, I’m also a Doc, and I regularly think of this place when I see some abuse of our health system. At least once a week am I referring someone from cardiology to CTS for a CABG and it’s along the lines of “from sh!tholestan, !ndia or ch!na, arrived in Aus 6 months ago with family, needs surgery”. That’s gonna be at least 100k over the next few days (pending no complications), plus all the aftercare and medications. And here we are not getting overtime approved

      • Socialised health care, being abused by those who have never paid into it. Makes me pretty angry. Not because I don’t think we should help everyone, but because it’s unsustainable to fix the entire world. You live here, you pay tax here, you benefit.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        You live here, you pay tax here, you benefit.

        By this rationale, the non-citizens and non-residents deserve it as well (more so if anything since they pay more tax at a given income level).

      • Sickening, especially when you hear of Australian-born elderly people, who have worked their whole life, never been on the dole, and are on long waiting-lists for critical surgery. A waiting list that is growing longer because of sickly new arrivals that should not be here in the first place.

      • Had a medicare card. Only arrived 6 months prior, never paid Aus taxes, spoke no english. To top things off it sexually assaulted a nurse

      • It’s a lot less frustrating once you move out to private practice – these patients don’t like being told that they’ll have to pay for their own interpreter and everyone charges gap fees.
        Have had some fun discussions with other specialists who refuse to advertise that they speak another language – “I don’t like seeing [insert race here] because they think that just because you share the same ethnicity they have no shame in asking to be treated for free.”

    • Wino ShinyfaceMEMBER

      there is massive money in that, one of the worst things about high density living is noise, even in suburbia

    • Easy fix is to play tropical rain forest noises at might for a month, after that everything else is a cone of silence.

      • Five neighbours complained to the council and they told them they’d be fined. It’s improved a bit but even with loud music you can’t drown out this attack dog.

  21. A Little Local Difficulty? – The Property Imperative Weekly 09 March 2019
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvyMCxfq-EM

    John Adams: Aussie Dollar Crashes 76% – Buy GOLD!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M16vYXUTeQ

    8 March 2019 – The CEC Report – Tremors of an Australian financial meltdown / Cashless economy trap
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASzDFhc9NAQ

    Euro Economy Falling Fast! ECB Begins MASSIVE Money Printing!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n06rXDrSQEg

    Massive U.S. Stock Market SELL OFF Continues! Sea of Red Right Now!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuYfgvRgWzM

    • Not sure about a massive stock sell off yet, but I’ve cashed out of S&P500 srock, gone to USD for now. I do think we will see the bear market return soon.

      • another reason why I am looking at, buying gold stocks and physical. I think gold will be moving up. One way or another global economy will freeze. Everyone prints and everyone owes more than they can repay. Loss of confidence in all fiats must come in the next 10 years. Might happen in six months but can kicking can go for while so I’d say 10 years max. Or just before markets freeze we start a war perhaps WW3.
        Off course we will be told reason for such war is because someone is evil and we must “liberate” those unfortunate Russians and Chinese.

    • [But the eminent economist Ross Garnaut says it’s not to be shrugged off. “It’s not at all a strange concept,” says the professor of economics at Melbourne University. “It’s a central question. If you have high population growth it’s extremely difficult to have a recession”, simply because an increase in the population adds to economic activity. “But what people feel as a recession is real per capita household disposable income. That relates to per capita output, not total output.”]

      MSM finally airing meaningful measurements.

      • Garnaut rides a lot of different horses dependingon who he wants to ingratiate himself to or whatever gig is available.
        This ” If you have high population growth it’s extremely difficult to have a recession”
        No it ain’t!!! When you run out of key businesses and resources to flog to foreigners to help allay the foreign debt, generated by insane immigration, you will immediately and VERY PREDICTABLY get yourself a recession that you can never get out of.

    • Shorten wants wages to go up: “We now have record lows in wages growth, stagnant real wages and cuts to penalty rates,” he said. “Our system needs to be renovated and renewed for the future.”

      Well Bill, commit to cutting immigration and also commit to bringing back manufacturing to Australia. This bullsh1t neolib idea that the west could send it’s manufacturing to asia and just become “services” economies has proven to be the bullsh1t idea it always was. Sure, our parasitic FIRE sector thrived for 30 years but thats now unravelling. Our entitled boomer class may have managed to get free money for retirement but importing third world slaves to wipe their arses isn’t going to grow the economy.

      • See the Summers memo on toxicity Timmeh.

        I don’t think you will see Mfg coming back in any resemblance to the past, different environment. I would point out that there is a tremendous amount of other stuff too do which the market has little or no interest in that could be done. These are the kinds of jobs which could provide a base not unlike Mfg jobs of the past.

      • The thought that one can simply bring back Export orientated Manufacturing is also complete BS.
        It’s never coming back and what Locally focused Manufacturing that we do have is really more Service than Production because it is certainly not competitive (neither from a quality nor Price perspective) with Manufacturing in Asia, Europe or the US. There are certainly examples where we are better than Mexico but that’s thin praise.
        So just forget this idea of a large scale Manufacturing rebirth in Australia it’s over, it is possible that we can still profit from highly specialized manufacturing but there is no real push to achieve this and the lack of existing big Manufacturing support infrastructure would make it very difficult to succeed as a specialized manufacturer.
        Think about things like depth of CAD support, routine service support costs for robotic welding/machining equipment, raw material costs and lead times/availability, equipment financing, Materials/WIP financing , rent costs and long term lease availability…. the list of reasons not to do anything in Australia goes on and on and on….notice that I haven’t even mentioned skilled Labour costs…they’re honestly that far down the list.

        Bottom line is that if we want higher local wages we’re going to need to earn them by succeeding on the global stage. Logically we can focus on achieving higher volumes or higher prices, which kinda equate to work harder or work smarter, unfortunately on average Aussie workers are good at neither and that’s the root cause of our wage recession.

      • Well since you put it that way fisho. I guess we’ll just have to concentrate on being the best arse wipers, coffee makers and house sellers we can be!

      • @Timmeh
        Trust me there is probably no one in Australia that wishes this were not the situation more than me
        But at some point it is time for even the most rosy eyed fabboi to see reality for what it is.
        It’s better to understand the battles that you can’t possibly win than to waste time effort money and patience trying to win when winning is impossible at that stage lets retreat and see what battles we can win and focus our efforts on the winnable battles.

      • Fisho,

        An AUD sliding past 50 cents will see a bunch of local manufacturing rollouts.

        While we continue to cream the proceeds of high priced dirt nothing is viable.

        Just ask Mohammed Bone Saw and the challenges of an economy distorted by a sea of oil.

        And at least the Saudis and Norweigans understand the point of a sovereign wealth fund.

      • I thought the consensus was the Saudis were the dumb money e.g. a sell signal when they splash cash.

    • Morrison’s alternate policy pay rises through tax cuts. This is nothing more than corporate Australia outsourcing pay rises to the Government. Pay rises should be funded out of profits, not Government revenue. Bill’s plan will fail unless Labor curb immigration and they won’t do that.

    • This morning saw first new listing on my walking patch. Hope volumes will start to build up from here on. Once infestors realise prices are not coming back they should start jamming the exit doors. By mid May I hope we see the first gushes..

      • during the crash in US number of homes for sale halved yet prices fell by 50% or more

        it’s the number of buyers that determine price, number of homes for sale is almost irrelevant

  22. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Im up in Tea Gardens visiting the kids, Gran and Pa and check out the realestate window yesterday arvo.
    Free standing houses shown in the window are all still all over 600k with many over 750k.
    Way To expensive for Hawks nest and Tea Gardens in my view.
    But a 2 bedroom appartment for sale for 280k caught my eye.
    Still to expensive but at 200k Id consider buying one, not as an investment,… just to have our own place in an area I have friends and family in and where we enjoy holidaying.

    • LOL
      in Feb 2015 he paid $1.4m almost 50% more than someone who bought in May 2013 ($980k), now sold at the loss for $1.6m. He was renting the place for $600 pw. Assuming he got IO loan 80% LVR at on average 4.5% his total cost was something around $1.7m (repayments $200k : $50k per year , council and water $10k, stamp duty $65k, agents $20k) plus he lost potential income of around $5k on almost $300k he put down

      $1.6m for that dump – the new investor is not any smarter either – must be one of his mates

  23. ChristopherJMEMBER

    Came up in Youtube feed and I recommend (BBC Benny Hill doco from 2002):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIsr8YnACdg

    He never owned property, rented a flat so he could walk to his studio, only ever dated women for lunch and then champagne back at his flat. The evenings were for television… About women, he remarked, why would I want to buy one when I can get one from the library… funny man, his shows started in 1954 on bbc…

  24. St JacquesMEMBER

    “The sharing economy was always a scam”. Well f$%%% der. Was anybody stupid enough to believe otherwise ? Oh wait…..

    • All the signs of a scam, make gullible people think they’re doing some sort if communal good. You think you’re winning when you’re loosing.

    • it made quite e few billionaires in Silicon Valley – AirBnB is worth more than Hilton and Hyatt that own almost 10000 hotels

  25. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    short and sweet property anecdotes from yesterday. Went to 3 x rental inspections (Kingsgrove, Dulwich Hill and Lewisham) and also watched an auction (Earlwood).

    All rental inspections were staffed by senior RE types – ie, it wasn’t the work experience kid simply there to open the door and watched the requests flood in online. 2 of the 3 inspections were very poorly attended. Most interesting part was in talking to the agents, all of them strongly discouraged us from buying anytime soon. Some quotes were:

    “definitely wouldn’t buy now. Rent for another 1-2 years, market is only going one way”
    &
    “owners did have the place on the market for sale but price was too high (didn’t want to give it away), are hoping to sell it in a few years once the market comes back…. the market is never coming back”

    the auction was pretty funny. opening bid of 950k. only two bidders, one whom was desperate to buy it but had to be dragged kicking and screaming in 25k bids. He was the highest bidder at 1,150k when they closed the auction to commence private negotiations. it hasn’t made the results page yet, suspect it’s another case of “don’t want to give it away”

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I know it’s been said a million times but I can’t for the life of me understand why any bidder would enter further negotiations. They just set the market price with their highest bid FFS.

      Suppose we can’t have anyone giving it away…

      • Too socialised into believing that a RE type in a suit is to be respected.

        If I were the high bidder and asked to step into the property for ‘further negotiations’ I would say: “mate, the only thing I am stepping inside for is to take a sh!t. You’re welcome to watch, cvnt!”

      • lol doc.. what are you drinking?
        same.. if I am highest bidder there will be nothing to negotiate. All I am going to say is that my offer is firm till midnight and after that price will move with Corelogic’s weekly results.

      • As much as I’d like to agree. Something is only for sale if the person selling it wants to let it go for that price. If I was auctioning a classic car and the best bid came in $10k below what I wanted for it. I’d either not sell it or try reach a middle ground with highest bidder

        However if I was forced to sell that’s different…

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        that’s what a private sale is for Gav. An auction is where you ask the market to determine the price and you have to accept the downside risk (less than you believe it’s worth) as a consequence of the upside risk (you get more than you wanted).

        holding an auction to get the upside risk and then withdrawing from sale, or putting a Scummoing vendor bid to set the price floor, is absolute balls. it completely weights all advantages to the seller.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Not as a buyer Gav. If they poo-poo my offer then I’m done. There’s nothing that I need that much that I’ll overpay.

        But trust me, I’ve learned something from experience. In a falling market they always come back asking if your offer is still good. Granted that will be when your original offer is more than the new market value, but they will come back.

      • Might be worth entering the negotiation room just long enough to ask them what price they will sell at, and then walking out once they tell you. Might help ram the message home.

      • @C.M.Burns – Yes, but that’s also why a reserve exists. You can put it on the market and go to auction, but if you don’t get near reserve you don’t have to sell. What I hate though is when agents quote a low price to entice buyers in, buyers go through inspection process and costs associated with it and get blown out of the water. In my opinion an independent company must be used to do pre-auction reports and hold accountable for faults after auction (if they don’t disclose them). Rather than onus on the buyer. I don’t like auctions for buying houses either to be honest. I much prefer private offers.

        @Mining Bogan – I wish everyone was like us in that regard, I too get annoyed at the behavior of vendors. I am almost certain the vendors of the property I offered on will come back. The current buyers don’t appear to have got their finance sorted, even after a 2 week extension. If I ever put my house up for sale I’ll be asking for people to put in their best offers (silent auction) and making a decision based on the best offer from that. I don’t think Auctions are great for anyone except the agents :).

      • +1
        if I’m the highest bidder that’s it, I’m not paying more, if I do I’m overpaying, especially in a falling market!

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I advise good people to ignore this sickening #fakenews and #alternativefacts propaganda!

    • So a woman who feels like she should be a man decides to transition into a man while in a relationship with a man who likes men but f*cks the transitioning woman in the p*ssy and makes said wo-man pregnant who then holds off transitioning while growing baby inside womb, has baby and then continues transitioning.
      Sounds quite simple and reasonable.

    • ChristopherJMEMBER

      Probably come up from 50k 20 years ago, Gunna. No wonder public transport, rents and so on are what they are

    • So our so called education export scheme is dependent on five countries that are all either at or have passed peak 20 year old. Sounds sustainable.

    • Had heard about this years ago, but never thought it’s make the news, let alone through the ABC. Years ago remember speaking to an Australian born Chinese woman who had done some Mandarin classes through one of these Confucius institutes, but dropped out after finding out they were completely funded by the Chinese Government. It seemed that it was allowed simply because our own Government just saw it as a way to save on university funding, although it looks like our relationship with China is starting to sour so things like this can actually be talked about.

  26. McbobbingsMEMBER

    Anectdata for the weekend.

    Went to North Strathfield for dinner on Friday. 8pm at pancakes on the rocks. Place was dead, less than half full and similar story at the other restaurants. Normally it’s a struggle to park but it was a breeze on Friday. Family bbq today, brought up housing as uncle had recently moved from Ermington to Castle Hill to be closer with his grandkids. He sold at 1.3 million in November, and reckons he got out at the right time. My aunt wasn’t too happy at all the doom and gloom, when I mentioned how tight credit was she started going off at the royal commission, perhaps their 5 investment properties aren’t going too well. Definite mood shift from 6 months ago.

    • Friend of mine heavily encouraged her 25 year old into buying an apartment( 10 in the block) last year. I was aghast, but this friend was convinced prices couldn’t fall significantly( l am the resident bear). The kid had saved some of the deposit; topped up by parents.
      The kid is now furious with the parents, as the apartment is worth less than the loan; deposit all gone, and large repayments,restricted lifestyle, depreciating asset and debt plus.
      Lots and lots of resentment and arguing- self inflicted, but horrible to watch.
      This must be a microcosm representing many families.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        do you play the role of peace keeper and negotiator, or are you squarely on the side of the daughter and lobbing hand grenades from the sidelines at every opportunity ?

      • You have to wonder how many kids have been put through the wringer because their parents pressured them to buy because the oldies had made money on their 30yo crapshack. Such a sad state of affairs, but, people will always fall for the dreams of free money.

      • The comment about the parents and the wine is pretty spot on😊.
        I’m just saying well it’s a roof over the head etc.
        I have thought of going through the Eddie Hobbs interview with Martin North- not sure if that’s too far for them.
        I’ve suggested they read Macrobusiness lots of times, but that has certainly fallen on deaf ears.

      • I’d favour a pragmatic approach – you can only do so much for people, but in the end they have to make a decision and take responsibility for the consequences. At least the youth have time on their side and can recover from such mistakes.

      • I agree L. I’d like these people to remain on friendly terms
        And, perhaps they’ll eventually read Macrobusiness, or Martin North, and sort it out a bit themselves.
        If they ask my opinion further, that’s what lll suggest( again)!

    • That chart looks like bollocks to me. Why doesn’t Sydney have rents as a top expense. It’s my single largest expense.

    • I think this problem is severely understated. Around the peak of the boom a couple of years back I spoke to quite a few doctors who upon completion of their specialist qualifications had crunched the numbers and decided that even a starting base salary in the public system (~200k) was not enough to purchase a decent property in Sydney. Some had even been told by the dregs of the spruiker class that they needed to get a better job, and nearly all of them moved to cheaper cities.

      • there are less people with a mortgage now than a year ago (more people paid off mortgage than took new one) so more debt on less people
        using an average for mortgage debt is misleading because many people don’t have any or much debt

        it’s worse than it looks and worse the last year

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Those nice Chinamen are off with a bullet but still only about 50%.

      Do we have to wait until they get to be 100+% before implosion, because that could be nasty for everyone.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        not necessarily. the chinese model only worked when they were making and exporting endless amounts of consumer crap for the west, which we dutifully bought with ever increasing amount of debt.

        as the western world has reached debt saturation, china has had to rely on their own citizens as consumers taking on debt instead to consume the stuff china was also producing.

    • Jesus fvcking fvck!!!!!

      I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the sooner this whole fvcked up country burns to the motherfvcking ground and takes every cvnt of an overfed woman of privilege and evety fvkcing sorry excuse for a mangina with it, the fvcking better.

      Faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrkk me

      *Sorry MB peoples: on the p!ss early this fine arvo …

    • saw that during Insiders and almost threw a glass at the TV. These f^krs really think everyone but them is stupid.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      So the media is describing this as a little stumble or as a struggle. No media filth, it’s much worse than that.

      Media filth deserves to hang next to the politicians.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yes, well, I attended a kids triathlon this morn. Nothing is better designed to destroy one’s faith in human nature than the attitude of Sunday morning sports’ parents and entitled boomer grandparents.

        I even got a little cheer when I told a large group to just take their kid and move when I was collecting the boy from the finish line. Made me proud to be a cranky sod.

    • Was that a bit cheeky from Speers. In the original unattributed quote he said “wages flexibility and keeping wage growth modest” whereas when he requires it after saying it was a Cormann quote, he only mentioned wages flexibility.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Hey, are you suggesting that Speers knew beforehand that she is as ignorant as f#ck?

      • I guess what’s not clear is whether Cormann ever said keeping wage growth modest was a deliberate policy.

  27. the indigenous regional football trials are held in dubbo on this day every year

    i went there and collected all the garbage they threw around the arena

    i think i got like $110 in about an hour

    • Wait till a hard crash and then everyone will be doing it, imagine how that will effect prices.

    • I bet they have no problem picking up the cheque for the Welcome to Country malarkey.

      • Let’s face it: they are the only mob entitled to tell us and the others who followed us to fvck off back home. I would gladly see more of my taxes going to Indigenous interests/issues than supporting more migrants.

      • True, but for genuine issues that are faced by those in remote or rural communities, not those in urban areas that want money for another contemporary dance group, where the dancers get lighter and lighter each year.

      • Nah Equality means no special handouts. No group in Australia gets more special treatment. Yet performs worse by almost every indicator. I don’t think all the special treatment helps. Treat them as equals and I think they would rise to the occasion. Welfare is a trap.

    • If, which I believe to be the case, Martin North is a straight talker with no particular agenda to push, this place is more fvcked than I or my left handed mouse could ever have dreamed.

      • Everything’s meh, economists blowing rainbows out their asses.

        Called living in a Bubble 😉

      • Really scary actually.
        I think a lot of people don’t see themselves as being debtors, because they see the houses as an unloseable asset.
        So, no preparations at all.
        And l think a lot of people don’t have any sort of skill base- can’t sew, can barely cook,can’t grew veggies, can’t mend anything themselves,don’t know one end of a screw driver from the other etc. Even a lot of lamentable parenting / caring skills, because they don’t spend enough time with family( they care, but don’t know how to do it).
        And l think a lot of people are going to find they need a lot of these skills to get by. People had a lot of these skills in past years. It’s going to be a steep learning curve,in highly stressed times.
        I’m a medico too ( retired thru illness), but lve aso had a strong background in community organisations- lots of people are going to need to step up to the plate, because we sure can’t leave it all to government !

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      We are on the way to being utterly reamed

      I slapped this up to HnHs ‘Does anyone here remember recession’ post the other day…..

      He (Morrison) has a point that nobody remembers,

      …….but the great unspoken is that he, the corporate, banking and real estate interests he represents, even the ALP in their single greatest act of policy idiocy since going into opposition in 1996 (because they sure didn’t want anyone thinking about it when in power between 2007 and 2013), the media, and the population ponzi lobby,  not to mention the guardians of monetary policy (RBA), corporate probity (APRA and ASIC) have made it their raison d’etre to ensure that everybody forgot.

      For an entire generation anyone noting the risks of Australias economic trajectory has been hosed down and ridiculed.  People observing the same issues that are addressed here at Macrobusiness every day have been driven out of the mainstream of public discussion until very recently.  It is still being cavilled at now, and the great policy evil which has been visited on Australia over the course of a generation since it last experienced a recession dare not let people know still.  It will of course seek to apportion blame – to ordinary everyday people, to an incoming ALP government, to racism – to avoid any suggestion that for a very long time Australia has completely coqued up its economic narrative.  But utterly coq it up Australia has. And the key concern of those who have coqued it up is that their little patch of vested interest isnt touched in the great economic reckoning that will unfold.

      It gave up on competitive value adding in manufacturing and technology, and fried a generations worth of investment in improved productivity in a high Australian dollar and non tradable inflation for the punterariat.

      It took the easy goal of a mining boom and sacrificed the rest of the economy for that, but it told everyone about the 1000 year boom and went to sleep at the regulatory wheel as the implications of that sentiment flowed through to the public mindset.

      It opted for giveaways from the budget and monetary policy for the generally aged part of society, as an entitlement, and embedded debt peonage for anyone younger than about 50.

      It turned a world leading superannuation scheme into a tax avoidance façade.

      It embedded a great deal of economic luck and the fruits of a previous generations focus on productivity into debt funded real estate speculation frenzy and told a whole society about FOMO and rungs on ladders, while holding them to ransom on behalf of corruption beneficiaries from offshore and tax avoiders in Australia, and is bequeathing these same a world of part time aged care and services jobs to pay off some of the worlds most insane mortgages. And it put the budget behind that dynamic with the blessing of the RBA.

      Instead of real economy it has opted for bums on seats and GDP, fuelled by an economically irresponsible population ponzi which has never been articulated to the electorate as a formerly reasonably competitive society stifled itself with infrastructure bottlenecks.

      The only way Australia’s economic paradigm in the last 20 years could be more discredited is if it had been blessed by George Pell………which he probably has. What he did to two altar boys in Archbishopric robes after mass has been done to a whole generation of Australians by smooth talking arseholes in suits, with a backing choir of the media.

      The next recession is going to hurt.  I was working (as a teenager) in 1981 and was in work in 1990.  I recall the widespread sense of despair which current Australia is going to be learning about.  The only upside is that that Australia in my opinion taught itself to be far more economically literate than the Australia of today, and coming governments are going to have to relearn the ability to generate and articulate meaningful economic policy.

      That’s all a long way away, and for the here and now it’s a matter of buckle up and prepare to shoot the rapids, and we should be under no illusions it is going to hurt some people.

      And the ones we want it to hurt the most are the people who have allowed it to happen over the course of a generation – starting with this, the most utterly inept government Australia has ever had. I really do hope it hurts for them. Starting with ScoMo and those currently making decisions in government.

      • Well said Gunna but we’ve had utterly inept governments for a long time now not just the current one. For instance Whitlam didn’t help when he reduced import tariffs overnight. Our electronics industry was decimated over the next few years and they were about as high tech as you could get at the time. Fairchild had a fab facility in Bayswater. I used to go there and buy transistors off the production line. AWA, Philips, BWD Instruments and the rest – all gone.

        As Flawse says – the answers lie back in time.

        And as Janet said some time back – be careful for what you wish for in the way of a recession as a lot of innocents are collateral damage. It will destroy families. If you think family violence is bad now – just wait.

      • Fantastic post, Gunna. I think as a nation we have been oblivious to the upcoming storm for far too long, and the decades of easy house price fuelled growth have made us far too complacent. I have nothing more to add, except a quote from comedian Russell Peters’ father – “Someone gonna get a hurt real bad.”

      • I remember being totally shocked at how many restaurants and cafes shutdown as consumers closed their wallets to discretionary spending. I look around today at all the cafes, restaurants, “massage” parlours, gyms, etc that I know will get slaughtered in a recession and it is scary.

        Also, what we learnt from the GFC is IT and Finance companies will sack workers en-masse to protect themselves.. and we didn’t even have the recession.

      • How many New Australians have come in off the back of ‘business visas’ in the form of cafes, ethnic cuisine and massage? What happens when those areas are no longer profitable, and they can’t write anymore loses? What happens to all those families under those visas, and the associated temporary visas from ‘sponsorship’ for cooks and baristas? What happens when all these people can’t pay back their debts to agents overseas, or to their sponsors or agents here or abroad?

        Will we see a mass exodus of Thai masseurs, Indian cooks and Chinese baristas?

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Jeez Gunna …a teenager in 1981 ….( did you narrowly miss out on that dreaded boomer label ?)
        …….if so good to see all is not lost and your generation is so attuned to the bullsh1t ……..

        …”To you from failing hands we throw. The torch; be yours to hold it high.”


      • Will we see a mass exodus of Thai masseurs, Indian cooks and Chinese baristas?

        Yes, of course. What else is there?
        Note that if they have residency, they look like an Australian to the next OECD country they want to migrate to. If they don’t have residency, they can starve here, or go home to demand the people they’ve been supporting with remittances for a decade support them in their turn.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        @TailorTrash

        Both my parents are babyboomers, but their relative youth when I was born, has afforded me a box seat in observing just how entitled they have been, not to mention just how righteously indignant they can become when asked about it.

      • Gunna, mine the same. It happened sometime in the 90’s I think the phenomenon of “spending the kids inheritance” which my father proudly parroted to me. I thought “what an odd thing to gloat about” seeing as I was in my youth and couldn’t give a fvck about what they were doing. It’s gonna come back to haunt them in their twilight years.

      • It’s funny. Every dollar I earn I think “What can I leave my daughter?”

        I’ve given up on Rhine cruises and Landcruisers, and only really want the innocent girl to have a chance to shine.

  28. Sir John and Maynard Would Have Rejected the IS-LM Framework for Conducting Macroeconomic Analysis

    In a recent op-ed dated March 14, “John and Maynard’s Excellent Adventure”, Paul Krugman defends John Hicks’ original 1937 interpretation of Keynes’s General Theory that cast macroeconomics within a general equilibrium framework, but without the current insistence on the micro foundations that so concerns today’s general equilibrium macro theorists. Krugman is absolutely right. One should not be concerned with the so-called micro foundations of macroeconomics, because what is truly macroeconomics cannot be derived from micro analysis, as for example the famous paradox of thrift, whereby micro behavior gives rise to macro paradoxes that cannot be understood from choice-theoretic microeconomic reasoning.

    But while we agree with Krugman’s criticism of the hordes of “micro-foundation” revisionists that now dominate economics, we are curious why he did not mention Sir John Hicks recantation of IS-LM analysis (see “ IS-LM: An Explanation”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 3 (2) (Winter 1980-81);). Many of us remain deeply sceptical about the usefulness of the IS-LM framework for interpreting a real world characterized by uncertainty, crises, and institutional transformations that hardly bring the economy towards any equilibrium, never mind “general” equilibrium. But even if we abstract from these complications with the usual excuse of rendering the analysis simple for pedagogic purposes, the original Hicksian IS-LM model and its various textbook extensions (usually constructed with some sort of Phillips curve add-on) are extremely problematic. The difficulties have really little to do with the view that it’s too aggregative by representing only three markets: product, money, and bond markets – which is the criticism to which Krugman seems to be pre-emptively alluding in his article.

    The first and obvious problem is that, even in the three-market aggregative model, there can never be such a thing, even at the conceptual level, called general equilibrium. To get that we must presume that there are independent functions of investment and saving and, at the same time, independent demand and supply functions for money. But one of the most basic criticisms that Keynes himself had come to recognize immediately after writing the General Theory is that the supply of money is not some exogenous variable that can be independently pitted against a distinct demand for money function. In a sophisticated monetary economy, the supply of money must be treated as a purely endogenous variable as many modern post-Keynesians and also neo-Wicksellians have come to recognize. Hence, the idea of money market equilibrium is meaningless, since one cannot conceptually ever be out of equilibrium when the two cannot be defined independently of one another. – snip

    https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/sir-john-and-maynard-would-have-rejected-the-is-lm-framework-for-conducting-macroeconomic-analysis

    Its a shame some traded models for the History of Economic Thought … and were falling ….

  29. A Clinton-era centrist Democrat explains why it’s time to give democratic socialists a chance
    “The baton rightly passes to our colleagues on our left.”

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/4/18246381/democrats-clinton-sanders-left-brad-delong

    Clinton-Era Official Says Left Should Lead Following Center-Right Failures

    Bill Black analyzes Assistant Secretary of Treasury Brad DeLong statement that neo-liberals should get out of the way and let the left lead since coalition with Republicans did not work

    https://therealnews.com/stories/clinton-era-official-says-left-should-lead-following-center-right-failures

    • “The baton rightly passes to our colleagues on our left.”
      if that baton doesn’t pass repeatedly through some self aggrandising craniums on its journey, rightful hasn’t happened

      • To have a core Rubinite utter a mea culpa is a thing in itself and opens up a broader set of public debate.

    • I’m torn between Abbott and Scummo. Abbott I want to knife quietly in an alley in Manly whilst Scummo I want to punch in the face repeatedly in public.

    • The Newspoll indicated there has been a 4.4 per cent swing in the two-party preferred split from the last election result. If mapped across all electorates the swing would potentially yield a loss of 18 seats for the Coalition.

      That’s a paddlin’!