Links 12 March 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:






    • it’s because Australians of Integrity are choosing more green options; walk, cycle, stand in line for public transport.

    • Interestingly, Morgan sales are up 500%! Which is quite surprising because they are not exactly giving them away.

    • Audi just offered fixed price servicing on all new cars, so as one of the most expensive cars to maintain they must be in deep decline.

    • Looks like very clear evidence to me of her reverse wealth effect, those upper income families who supposedly can afford/weather the property downturn, according to many in the MSM, have in fact lost the highest sums on their properties (even though not the worst in % terms) as they are highly leveraged & have closed their cheque books, hence the big hit to mid range luxury vehicles.

      On a side note, I’ve always thought the luxury brands move into baby Beemas & Benzs etc was like a ponzi & would ultimately destroy the brands caché.

  1. Ahhh. Andrew Robb, remember him?

    “So if you want to look after your family, who’ve made sacrifices for 35 years, you know, that’s what I’m doing.”

    He’s so massively on the take he’s basically lost all touch with reality. He has clean teleported himself to some other part of the multiverse. Floating around. Skimming cream. And a victim to boot!

    • Oh the poor possum… Won’t someone think of the cushy job he had to leave because well… the tie was a little too tight?

  2. We once had GOLD, it has now run out,
    as has our unique beneficial circumstance: George Meudell. 1929
    In 75 years, from 1851 to 1926, just a man’s lifetime,
    Victoria produced £318,000,000, worth of gold !
    Fools and economists call gold-mining ” the robber industry,” overlooking its great value as the very foundation and moving power of Victoria and of Australia, and turning away from the romance in mining.
    The Poverty Reef at Tarnagulla, Victoria, ranks as one of the richest gold reefs in the world.
    The gold from this reef often went as high as 50 ounces to the ton and became richer as it went down.
    From the surface to 400 feet, the reef was 20 feet thick, and this big mass of stone averaged 6 ounces to the ton.
    The amount of gold taken from 4 claims along the line of reef for only 141 feet, yielded £1,500,000
    “Welsh- Man’s” claim, gave a profit of £270,000 to 9 share- holders who worked it themselves.
    There has been no such hill of gold in history.

    The nuggets of pure gold found in the Tarnagulla and Dunolly districts were fabulous.
    The Welcome Stranger nugget found 10 inches below the surface sold for £10,000.
    The Welcome nugget found at Bakery Hill, Ballarat, sold for £10,500.
    The Blanche Barkly nugget was worth £7000, and it was 96% pure gold.
    At Canadian Gully, Ballarat, in 1854, 2 new chums, only 2 months in the colony,
    found a 1619 ounce nugget at 60 feet which fetched £6400.
    2 other immigrants just landed, unearthed a solid lump of gold weighing 1008 ounces, worth £4080
    At Back Creek, Taradale, digging to 12 feet, a party of 3 divided £3000 for a week’s work.

    But why continue to emphasize the lucky side of digging for gold.
    In 1852, in Victoria, gold valued at £14,000,000 was raised by a population of 86,000 people !
    There is no record of money-making like it in the history of this planet.
    Without gold mining Australia would still be a sheep run peopled by selected British criminals, lording it over a half- caste population of black fellows and mean whites.
    Without Australia’s gold, Great Britain would be to-day a small huckstering and money-lending nation,
    like the United States, lacking a navy, wanting in ideals and over-crowded with half-educated humans.

    By reason and because of her gold output,
    Australia stands forth to-day as the very best of the new nations of the earth.

    Gold made Victoria,
    Victoria made Australia, and
    Australian gold made the present British Empire.
    Without Australia’s gold from 1852 to 1872, London could not have become the open gold market of the world, and her shipping and foreign trade would not have been on the vast and overwhelming scale made possible by the possession of gold for paying foreign debts and drafts.
    Banking and shipping have made Britain great, but without gold
    her banking and shipping could not have expanded so enormously or so quickly.
    Truly her merchants and manufacturers, thanks to the invention of steam, were ready to capture the world’s commerce and markets, and Australian gold largely helped Britain to conquer them.

    Gold mining has been allowed to perish in Australia, and the world’s output is declining gradually.
    It needs no second sight or gift of prophecy to foresee the revival of gold mining, because the nations must have gold to pay their debts to one another, and until a better standard than gold is found and universally adopted, the world must get gold whatever it costs to win !
    Nowadays in South Africa and Australasia ten penny-weights of gold per ton does not pay to produce.

    Gold and human nature are 2 unchangeable things.
    Without gold and enough of it this civilization will decay and die, and as it is an imperfect framework for humanity it will not matter if it does disappear.
    The banks made huge profits buying gold at £2 an ounce and selling it in London at £4 !

    WW, by virtue of the gold discoveries Victoria had a major head start on the rest of the nation.
    But all its opportunities have now been ripped off and squandered.
    It now has nothing going for it.
    You remember Melbourne was to be the Paris of the South
    Well it sure is turning out like that.

    • Interesting reports out in the last few days about China and the USD. They have been busy these last few years ditching all the dollars they accumulate plus a few more and buying Gold. Chinese seem to always have a long term plan – some of which, back in time, have been total disasters. However do we really expect China to go on supporting the USD as the reserve currency to allow the US to spend recklessly on military projects? Or will the few pebbles they have now started to kick down the slope turn into an avalanche. I’d like to think I can hold on long enough to find out. I’ll be rich I tells ye!

      • I don’t think China intend a gold standard, but they should increase their gold purchases going forward….they need a hedge against their huge structural US dollar short and monetary gold is by far the best hedge against the Imperial credits of our time.

        Another hopeful sign for gold holders is the push coming for non-debt based issuance …….this is a familiar story for any student of history and is practically impossible to police once started ( look over there, they are getting free money, where is ours ) I know what you mean about living long enough to see it out but this fiat system started in 1960 when these type of Central Banks were started all round and the usual life of a fiat system being 80 years ( 2 working generations ) it will probably last until 2040, just in time for lack of crude oil to hit a well. I might be able to enjoy it if my dementia is not too bad.

      • @nyleta do you think the current enthusiasm for MMT is the start or a harbinger of non-debt based issuance?

      • @nyleta make sure you get a good night’s sleep for the next 20 years then. I hear it helps reduce the risk and you really want to enjoy your future schadenfruedgasms!!! It’d be a tragedy to miss those due to something like dementia

    • The Forestville gold mine, 20 km’s east from Bendigo is on track to produce 600,000 oz this year I read the other day. That is big apparently, but owned by Canada.

      • That is a big mine for comparison:
        Newcrest’s, all operations, guidance for the 2019 fy
        is between 2.35–2.6 million oz. @ all-in costs of $720/oz

  3. What an amazing selection of sources of information. Such diversity of thought! Such critical analysis!

    • OAARRRRGHHHHHHH For Fūck’s Sake:

      Back in mid-December, when the current Labor Government was trying to explain how the NT was in the middle of a full-blown financial crisis that sees it borrowing $4 million a day to keep operating, Jodie Ryan was asked in a briefing what happened to the $506 million the NT received for the port.

      She said it was put into general revenue and spent. It’s long gone, with less than 96 years left.

      Fūck, we’re dumb!

  4. Auckland is plateauing!

    “the most surprising result came from the auction at the agency’s head office auction rooms on March 6 – which was an auction with 47 properties on the Order of Sale.
    Most were from Auckland’s upmarket central suburbs such as Glendowie, Orakei, Mt Eden, St Heliers, Remuera, Ponsonby and Herne Bay but Barfoot’s published results show that sales were achieved on just five of them, giving an overall sales clearance rate of just 11%.

    • Ouch
      But still I’m sure there were completely understandable mitigating circumstances on the ones that didn’t sell so this is just a once off kinda thing (or perhaps part of a series of once of events?)

    • A permanent high plateau? 😂

      11%! Wow, they don’t even print those sort of numbers here in Oz, national security for something.

    • haha yeah I’ve seen that 1, shame it in SA. I am waiting for more blood in the streets and prices to come down on all toys. Including these…

      Someone hit the back of my Suzuki Jimny yesterday,

      Think it just bent the spare wheel bracket/holder thing. I can’t see any other damage, but will take it to get assessed just to be sure no further damage. I would have preferred a write off, then I’d have the capital free to buy a toy like the Stagea haha. Oh well looks like Jimny and I are together forever at this rate. I just did an oil change on the weekend too!

      Just saw this RX-3 coupe today.
      I reckon a few months back he could have got closer to $100k. Now asking $85k.. great car though! Shame about the Simmons, needs a set of Watanabe’s..

      • One of my early 80’s Toyata’s got a bump & outwardly all it looked like was a broken blinker, but a closer inspection showed it popped a lot of bracing glue & slightly twisted the whole car……

        I’m over thinking about toys for a bit, still don’t know whether to pour a bit into mine or sell it – all over the shop. I have a seed of an idea involving a Focus RS when that blood runs…….

      • Back in the early 90’s there was an old RX3 that got passed through a few sets of friends, once the 12A had blown my mate (with my help) grafted the engine from his 929 into the RX, he then gave it a backyard spray job. At the time he was having trouble getting a replacement rotary. Around the same time another friend blew his engine in his RX4.
        Its crazy to think those old bangers we used to thrash and abuse would end up becoming collectors items, not so for my old RA40 Celica, I drove that like I stole it for 12 years before giving it away for a carton of beer. I still miss it, shitty 18RC engine and all.

      • @JohnR the tea cups are the tail lights. They have a teacup shape as oppose to perfectly circular style. I think the Teacups were a JDM “Savanna” spec option. They are rare, especially “genuine” set. Copies now exist.

      • @[email protected], I always loved the TA22 Celicas and now they are slowly starting to gain a bit of value. Hard to find a good clean 1 for the reasons you mentioned. Toyota didn’t see fit to give us the good twin cam engines until the ST162 fwd Celicas in the 80s. 3SGE motor. My friends had those Celicas and flogged the life out of them.

        I had an AE92 Corolla with the 4AGE engine as a student. I used to beat my mates Celica in it. Drove him nuts. Good little car, sometimes miss it. Rare now. Felt very flimsy though. Sold it after it got broken into and vandalised.

        Stsgeas especially the Autech 260rs are so rare that I’ve been looking at Subaru Forester (turbos). Kind of keen on a modified 1 but not sure if I’m buying trouble. The Jimny is cheap and reliable. I considered turbocharging it but the bottom end probably won’t hold up and a Forester is a more logical buy.

        Think I have a tiny bruise on my hip from the seat belt. So may need to change the belts.

      • Gav, My ~350hp upgraded Everything TA22 would twist badly when I gave it the berries & was going to tear itself apart unless I caged it. I’ve found it’s better to go for factory performance & wind it up instead of trying to make something fast that wasn’t a good platform to start with. Unless you’re really prepared to work all areas to balance the power upgrade – $$$ & time. FWIW.

        Depending on what you want it for, a Stagea should flog a Forester in any way you choose to look at it. And Subies – if they’re low K’s you’ll do alright, but it’s a common theme of blown LHS headgasket once it’s done a couple of ton. Also better to get a stock or mildly touched up one one & step it up yourself if possible, unless you trust the previous owner was sensible with their boot & maintenance – always a peril with performance cars.

      • Wheels are not stock, but the body kit is. It’s an Autech version of the Nissan Stagea wagon. The 260rs had the GTR running gear and came with that body kit and was only manual and no sunroof.

        The regular Stageas were Rb25 (mostly) and often auto with no body kit. There was quite a few different trim options. Too many to list here. But the Bees Knees is the 260rs in my opinion as it came with the RB26DETT, pretty easy to tune them to 600hp these days.

        All in a family station wagon lol..

    • @brains trust

      Hey guys, what are the calculations and the positioning of a rear-wing on my dual-cab landcruiser?