Iron ore prices for March 20, 2019:
Spot hammered. Paper worse. Steel fine. Chinese iron ore port stock lifted to 148.2mt last week.
Bloomie has more on Brucutu:
Bradesco BBI, Thiago Lofiego
- Positive development for Vale.
- However, it’s still uncertain if the company can regain the provisional operating license under which it operated the Laranjeiras dam or if it will have to restart a licensing process with the Minas Gerais state environmental agency in order to be allowed to operate it.
- In this case, Brucutu mine would be unlikely to restart in 2019.
- Bradesco BBI sees Vale’s 2019 iron ore shipments totaling 350 million tons.
- Faster-than-expected resumption of Brucutu could bring upside to the estimate.
- Outperform recommendation maintained.
Goldman Sachs, Thiago Ojea
- Brucutu restart should be quick once its license is returned.
- Vale’s production is expected to reach 370 million tons in 2019.
- Goldman’s global commodities team sees iron ore prices averaging $73/t in 2019.
- Neutral recommendation maintained.
Goldman looks about right to me so price falls ahead for much of the year barring some new Vale shocker.