Via the AFR comes Peter Costello on the US/China Cold War:
“This has always been Australia’s strategic dilemma – if Australia ever has to choose between economic prosperity and its security, it will choose its security,” Mr Costello said.
Conflict is inevitable, said Mr Ferguson, Harvard University professor…Survival for Australia, caught between such a conflict, will mean taking political pain caused by a decline in exports to China or even banning technology firms such as Huawei.
“When it comes to national security, also your integrity as a democracy, you will have to make economic sacrifices,” Mr Ferguson said.
Well, I agree…now. But it was a near thing in the past few years as pro-Chinese interests captured very senior Australians and Chinese dough flooded Aussie property.
This is a big turnaround in Peter Costello from a decade ago when he declared at The Diplomat that there would be no need to choose because China would liberalise. It is another little sign of the shifting winds in Canberra away from Chinese patronage.
The conflict will inevitably arise and much sooner than any shooting war, as Canada is discovering today, via the ABC:
The Canadian Government has approved extradition proceedings against the chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies, prompting a furious reaction from China.
…Professor Wesley Wark of the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs said “the Canadians will take a beating throughout this whole process” from China.
“I suspect the Trudeau Government is desperately hoping that the Americans reach a deal with the Chinese,” he said.
US President Donald Trump told Reuters in December he would intervene if it served national security interests or helped close a trade deal with China, prompting Ottawa to stress the extradition process should not be politicised.
Last week, Mr Trump played down the idea of dropping the charges.
…Brock University professor Charles Burton, a former Canadian diplomat who served two postings in China, said Beijing was likely to retaliate further.
“They’re not going to take this lying down … one shudders to think what the consequences could be,” he told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp, saying Beijing might crack down on Canadian canola shipments or stop Chinese students from going to Canada.
Ottawa rejected Chinese calls to release Meng, saying it cannot interfere with the judiciary.
As China slows and changes it will be forced to increasingly control its capital account to prevent a collapse in the yuan. We will see a commensurate fall in Chinese economic influence worldwide, including in Australian services exports, accompanied by a more assertive strategic posture from the Chinese Communist Party as it seeks to hide economic failure behind nationalism.
In short, the choice is already made and Australia will go ex-Chinese growth over the next decade.
