Via Credit Suisse:
The price of Australian thermal coal sold to China (5500kcal high-ash) is being hit relative to competitors, at odds with assurances by the Chinese and Australian Governments that there is no ban on Australian coal at China ports.
Whether there is a ban or just restrictions, the price suggests importers are not interested in learning from experience and are avoiding Aussie thermal.
Prospective buyers are steering clear on the fears of being stranded with a distressed cargo if they can’t land the material in China.
The recent expansion of the ban included coking coal but there is no further reports on that front yet.
Needless to say, it will hit Aussie GDP this quarter. Or, given the snap back iron ore and LNG volumes, limit the impact of the recovery that transpired in January, also via CS: