AEP: Global recession builds

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Readers will know I always take Ambrose Evans-Pritchard with a big grain of salt. But today he is onto something is an examination of the current dynamics in the global economy:

The benefit of Donald Trump’s $US1 trillion ($1.4 trillion) fiscal stimulus is fading before China comes close to touching bottom. We have hit a global vacuum.

…The 10-year German bund yield crashed below zero on Friday after IHS Markit’s gauge of manufacturing orders dropped to slump levels of 40.7, last seen in 2009. Can we now stop pretending that Germany is in rude health, briefly held back by new car standards (last September) and low water levels on the Rhine?

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.