Weekend Reading: 9-10 February 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

Americas:

Europe:

Asia:

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Comments

  1. Hats off to Rwanda!

    Bloody delivery by drone? Check
    Women in parliament? Check
    Universal healthcare? Check (better coverage than what the Americans get anyway)

    YouTuber explains the drone delivery service: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEbRVNxL44c

    I did not realise that fixed-wing drones are more fuel efficient than helicopter-type drones.

  2. haroldus, what chapter are you up to in RDR2 and what do you think of it so far ? I’ve been following your beaver hunting feats but always too late to reply on the weekend posts.

    • Weirdly I bought this game but haven’t played it. I was really looking forward to it but as soon as I downloaded it I knew I would never play it. I worry it will take up way too much of my time.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        that’s a valid concern. I have at least 100 hours in it. I’m a ‘mostly completionist’ – did and explored a lot of the game.

        that being said, it’s a genuine masterpiece of a game and you’ll regret never playing it

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Gee games have come a long way. Divorce would be my outcome if I bought a console and games like that one. Can see the attraction tho

      • I play an online port of halo 3 that’s free to download to PC. Great game and really brings back the best of online multiplayer. Tooa ddictive though.

    • I’ve just ambushed the patrol with the Indian chef’s son. and am now up in the mountains with the chief trying to get herbs which I think will cure my tuberculosis. I thought I was going to get lucky with that widow in the mountains, but I collapsed from the disease. Let’s hope I didn’t give it to her.

      So that chapter.

      It is an extremely impressive game, but for me is too long and too slow, It bugs me that I can’t fast travel home, so it is difficult to do challenges and get home to get them crafted, or go to the trapper, or the fence.

      I’m going to finish it for the story, but not do any more side quests.

      We know that dutch and john live, I can’t recall any more from the first RDR (which I feel is a better game, I’ve played that through a couple of times, but I can’t imagine doing it with RDR2)

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        pretty close to the end. make sure you go back and check on that widow if you get the chance.

        i think the side quests are awesome. there’s so much of the world, where they tell stories about the time and what was going on, that it really adds to it (IMO). I didn’t really bother with the challenges though. I also didn’t bother with the dinosaur bones or the other busy work / collect X things quests.

        the two prologues are definitely worth doing as they give you closure on the main game (you’ll need it) and you’ll probably meet a bunch of characters you met in side quests as well. It also provides a link between this game and the original.

      • You should try Kingdom Come: Deliverance. Made by the game dev’s, game dev – Daniel Vavra (made the original Mafia game). I use a horse/arrow mostly but rock a warhammer. Best game on PC atm.

      • Kingdom come is a bit clunky, I found the combat a bit fiddly, and you have to put a bit of blue tack on your screen for your reticule.

        Also a tiny bit slow.

        Best game like this: Witcher

      • already completed the Witcher 3 😉

        also, get yourself a gaming monitor, as they come with screen overlay options so you can have a reticule / sight on your screen using the monitor.

      • yeah i found the combat a little challenging at first, you have to pour lots of time and effort into hand-to-hand. But if you play with a focus on being a Mongolian horseback archer, the fun really begins. You should try a fresh game where you get a horse and max level your archer and one weapon type fully. It becomes a different game and you have to steal horses and other things to progress fast. I’m still gonna wait for RDR2 on the PC as I hear its kind of clunky on the consoles.

    • Stirred memory’s ….

      80s Calif Redondo Bch playing D&D with born and breed local sorts that went to high school together, anywho, D&D was played once a month on a Friday, with a sanding rule of no grog, largely a male affair – much frivolity. Until a female was allowed in by the name of … Mary Snow of all things … sadly her in game player which was female was incapacitated during some quest and as such asked to leave the room per rules.

      What happened afterwards will scar me for life ….. they rolled for turns …. then again when she was allowed by rules to come back her quizzical looks at the majority of boys at the table and their mammalian grins was classic stuff….

      Then again these are the same sorts that complained about the Asian invasion screwing with the bell curve to get into University … back in the day …

      • Only played a hand full of times with this specific group of Redondo friends, otherwise it was surfing, skateboarding on the strand, or making the mistake of taking to a friends party in Bel Air – though I was in a West Coast Bch take on the East Side West Side play. Had to remove them due to their personal baggage and then almost went off the road down 100M into someones pool, thank goat for that old Cadillac parked next to the cliff.

      • Hay EP … had a look to see what some were up too, its sorta what I’ve always done so I have personal experience to flesh out more academic means of evaluation. Same goes for watching the coke move through different social strata during the time and its larger ramifications on society. Seems some capital cities are going through that process right now, so, I have the knowlage and experience to reconcile how it plays out. Same goes for the whole RE debacle amongst other things …

        Another example is spending time on both Team Fortress and Counter Strike back in the day, getting to know a few of the Steam boys and top players to the point of being an admin on a top game server. Originally known as “orb whore pro” until I mastered the Mag, not to mention curling a rocket across a vast map to strange places or use mad deflection with the hot rebar crossbow,

        Lol organization was done as a corporation with CEO et al, watched them evolve as a social media – competition format to a pure market place platform. Lmmao now you have kids being coded to respond to environmental stimulus due to environmental factors e.g. skins, hats, weapons, contracts, et al … Even nudging by players looking to disrupt game play with hacks and spam to encourage play on say Fortnight because theirs more moeny in it and proxy wars for market share … chortle …

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Computer games are just a distraction to keep youse guys from ever achieving much in life, and from violently rebelling. They are there to smooth out existence no matter how rough it is. Like p0rn and backyard economics whinge blogs. (Youse probably have all three going at once, making youse triply unsuccessful).

      • The works of Reusa should be collected and placed in the national archives. The deep and penetrating insights of this great nation’s Bashō (in time Bashō whall be considered the Reusa of Japan, Whitman the Reusa of America, Shakespeare the Reusa of England, etc, etc) should be added to the primary school curriculum because we want the right sort of ideas going into the minds of our next generation of landlords. I’d also suggest we get rid of the Queen’s birthday holiday and replace it with Relations Day with only the right sort of people being given the day off. Of course, the right sort of people would already be having that day off, so the plebs can just go to work and hopefully they will learn something about the order of things. Their children will be inspired to not be like Mummy or Daddy. Thus, the intergenerational cycle of poverty and loserdom will finally be broken.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      See? See what you’ve done!

      I can’t unlearn any of this.
      I hope you’re proud of yourself.
      Remember, words have power and should be used with restraint.

      Learning skip was a Grand Wizard with a +3 robe of power was enlightening however. Instant Family Guy flashback material. Explains soooo… much. Or at least the long-term damage from the attendant drug use.

  3. Melbourne’s apartment block blaze exposes far more than cladding
    https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/fire-and-brimstone-melbourne-apartment-block-blaze-exposes-more-than-you-think-20190205-h1avv1
    [There was a fire in Melbourne the other day. It was one of those “accidents waiting to happen” we’ve been hearing about since the horror Grenfell Tower blaze in London in 2017.]

    Victorian Statewide Cladding Audit
    https://www.vba.vic.gov.au/cladding

    A useful checklist down the bottom.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Talking to a finance guy the other day.about the Lighthouse development in Dee Why.
      case 1/ Bought off the plan for $800k bank valued at $500k.
      case 2/ Screwed them down $300k to buy.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Something else was exposed too. So exposed that even the ABC had to talk about it on the wireless. Vibrants living five to a room. They couldn’t not talk about it because of what occurred with stuff on balcony and beds in stairwells and fire alarms covered up.

      Even had the Mayor for Third World Melbourne and Building Future Slums, Sally Capp, on talking about it. She tried to frame it as a few rogue landlords and poor vibrants being exploited but it didn’t really amuse the callers. Topic kept recurring all morning. That bloody Mayor though…told the viewers about a reporting system but qualified it by saying the process took so long they never caught anyone. I call shenanigans.

      • We all know it’s going on and I’ll bet those doing the exploiting are mostly third world imports too. There is no benefit to this sort of immigration, none.

    • I can not tell the difference between a liar and a fool, but Elon is one of them when it comes to urban transport.

      A billionaire worth twice as much as Elon recently purchased 12.7% of SkyTran. I hope SkyTran is the future of transport. If not, SkyWay might be. (can companies stop having Sky in their name!)

      Why the heck did he invest in SkyTran? I hope a test track is built and it works out. If not, it is just pocket change for him and Elon is still wrong. American Rail Club says SkyWay is further ahead than Elon’s stupid tunnel:

      (at 8m54s)

      https://youtu.be/-XFMIqiDWAc?t=534

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        You should probably spend less time on Infowars.com, abovetopsecret.com and reddit.com/r/conspiracy – you look like an absolute tool posting stuff like this.

        Just a quick heads up – the reason why hyperloop will fail, presented by your 12 year old astroturfing loon, is because it will only be able to move 1000 people per hour (no reference supplied).

        Hyperloop like all train systems can move around 100,000 people per hour – and this one being entirely automated without drivers, would be far more efficient.

        Seriously – get off the internet – its bad for people who are only on it to confirm their cognitive bias and are not smart enough to sift through the flotsam jetsum of intellectual detritus – looking at you Jacob.

        We all think it.

      • I am a tool because I do not worship Elon? Sure.

        Not every city is a big city and hyperloop is like flying an Airbus A380 from Darwin to Canberra. How about an A220 instead?

        That is where SkyWay and SkyTran come in. How should people get from Ballarat to Geelong? Or from Canberra train station to ANU?

        His tunnel at SpaceX offers a very bumpy ride while tunnels in Japan allow 500 km/h speeds.

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        His tunnel at SpaceX offers a very bumpy ride while tunnels in Japan allow 500 km/h speeds.

        Fk’n lol.

        Did he have you over to test it for him for some feedback ?

        Also the recent announcement of the Hyperloop between Bendigo and Ballarat skipped my in box – maybe Elon has also been consulting you on routes in privy ?

    • He is good on promises but so on delivery side

      how about he firstly builds a decent electric car for $35k as he promised.
      Model 3 is costing him around twice as much at the moment and prospects of price going down are diminishing

      BTW. I know you will mention the SA battery but that was basically done by Samsung and Panasonic

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        Done by Samsung and Panasonic ? He is the biggest batter manufacturer on earth right now – WTF are you even talking about ?

        He has failed because his $35k is not released, BEFORE he said it would be ? Despite him releasing multiple models of electric cars and transforming the global playing field – no one, absolutely NO ONE or any other company has done more to push electric vehicles than Elon.

        ” He is good on promises but so on delivery side ”

        Yeah – because SpaceX doesn’t exist, nor does Tesla, nor does PayPal, nor do the other dozen highly successful companies he has started or bought and developed.

        $35k Model 3 Tesla is still coming
        https://electrek.co/2018/08/14/tesla-model-3-base-price-coming-new-battery-module-design/

      • I think the point is Elon doesn’t do anything, he pays others to do stuff but likes to make it out to be all about himself.

        Pay pal …. groan …

  4. Townsville update:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/graziers-confronted-with-devastation-as-floods-kill-cattle/10793502
    The ABC story shows many cattle dead after the floods up there.
    The graziers will have to answer to the RSPCA for that, but in the images you will also notice the rail line to Mt Isa is washed out. No news in the media for that.
    There will be 10’s of kilometres, if not hundreds of kilometres of washed out rail line.
    8-12-14 weeks before the line re opens, and who pays for the rebuild??
    So is it time to shut down and walk away from Mt Isa and Cloncurry
    Both those towns rely on the heavily taxpayer subsidised rail line to transport products for the mines.
    But the Mt Isa mines are not profitable. How much tax does Glencore pay??
    Mt Isa mine is an environmental hazard, and is time expired for its infrastructure.
    Cloncurry never was a profitable mine region, without tax payer support.
    My call is that the annual losses out there have to cease, and the towns closed.

      • Estimates > 300,000 head of cattle have been drowned or starved.
        CuDeco’s (famous) Rocklands mine, 15km west of Cloncurry
        has been closed since Sept last year.

    • Levels at Walkers Bend and other places will go above the 1974 levels according to the BOM………the gulf coast came about 100 miles inland that time

      • there was images of Corella ck the other day, it is about 15k w of Cloncurry
        that is the 1 Burke and Wills followed to Normanton then to Karumba.
        they remarked at the time, “in a good year” you could make it down that ck by boat
        they were correct.
        It is also the Ck from where some mob were knocking off river gravel and sand??
        Wonder who

    • Rail line washed away? Heeyy… There’s a few of those million jerbs happy-clappy Scummo was talking about… All good, buddy. Oh wait – they might actually import some vibrants – because aussies don’t want to do that jerb.

    • How about setting the currency at a level where we no longer run a CAD before we go around willy nilly shutting more mines and industry?
      Re cattle lost. Graziers have toanswerto the RSPCA Wiley – for all you travels and observation I can see you haven’t been around a cattle station when floods hit.

      • LOL. Those farmers could be torturing the hell out of those beasts and you wouldn’t see the RSPCA. On the other hand if he offered the RSPCA a donation they’d be on his doorstep in a flash.

      • J correct
        FL animal husbandry, flood or no flood,
        those graziers have a responsibility to do their best to look after their cattle.
        for 12 weeks every year that joint floods,
        there is no excuse.

      • WW. Sorry mate…you are running off about something you know zip about.
        I think Townsville would like a flood 12 weeks every year.
        Farmers and graziers have to deal with harsh reality not the fairytale lives of city dwellers where everyone is allowed to be experts on stuff they know nothing about.

      • quote
        “Their eagerness to turn a profit at the expense of the population caused the Tokugawa shogunate to step in and restrict price fluctuations in order to save subjects from starvation. In some cases, the shogunate went so far as to throw certain traders in jail.”
        end quote
        these days we will stage manage and instigate wars

      • Agree totally.
        How Flawse can make those statements in support of the criminal activities of the graziers
        is beyond me.
        It ruins any credibility he had
        how he stays in business is a mystery.

      • WW Have you evr beenon a horse when the poor buggar is going down over his fetlocks at every step? (And that is not even bad conditions! On river country following cattle he will go down halfway to his knees often enough) ) Do you know how long he lasts? How fast he can move? If people get caught with stuff that is unexpected it is a hell of a problem. You can’t shift all your stock every time it starts to rain. You can’t shift all your stock in a day. Further it can rain somewhere in a headwater you don’t know. Cattle naturally head to high ground. So on river country that can often be the river bank. Water diverts around the channel and you can’t get to them. Most times you can handle that by boating them in some hay to eat to get them by. Note that that is no easy task either but these people get out in the wet and danger to do it. . ( Again I’m sure it sounds easy to the armchair experts. Like a pleasant day on the Harbour in the Cruiser!!! ) ) But then of course if it is a bad flood the high points right beside the river go under as well.
        Frankly very few city dwellers would have the guts to go out on a horse in floodwater. It’s treacherous and you can die pretty easily. You have to have half a clue about what you are doing and a pretty good knowledge of what the river is likely to do in your area – but floods don’t always go the way you think. So hte arm chair experts they sit in their damned armchairs watching the drama on TV giving their Sydney city filtered view of it all given from the bar of a pub somewhere in Townsville. Then suddeenly they are all experts on everything, every creek, every person for hundreds of miles around.
        Wow! You think these nasty evil graziers go down as the water is rising and cheer on the fact that the herd that they have worked their arses off to keep healthy and that is their livelihood are getting washed away. FFS!!!

        Further, what are we supposed to be talking here – a 1 in 100 year? 1 in 500 year? event. You can shift all the cattle cattle every time it starts to rain against that? No you can’t!!!! Only morons think that is possible.

        WW I enjoy your take on things but about this you know zip.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        In this instant I must agree with Flawes. The flood was so huge, so sudden that the Graziers would have no show of rescuing their herds. They certainly would have tried , but where to find a safe place?The country up their is pretty flat, the stations pretty big and the cattle spread out. To go from 8 years of drought to a 1 in 1000 years event in a couple of days is impossible to prepare for.
        This is the face of Climate Change and we , all of us, are in the gun.

      • Flawse is right, theres no way they could have moved their cattle before the flood. The stations up that way take a whole day to muster ONE PADDOCK using a helicopter for god sake. To think they could move their entire stock to safety is absurd. The other problem is there probably isnt anywhere safe to move them anyway. Theres a reason its called the channel country. WW completetly off the mark.

      • Well what interesting comments
        My theme this year is predator and prey
        As you all know 90% of the population is prey, 10% are predators
        The common distinction is that predators can join the dots, plan and organise
        Prey act like rabbits in the spotlight or lemmings.
        David Attenborough will show you any number of examples of predators managing prey.
        Be assured the punters in Europe are just realising that distinction and that most of them are on the wrong side of the net, and wont have the benefits of their predator captors.
        AI can join the dots.
        Sir Sid Kidman could join the dots and he built his business on the back of graziers who could not.
        Not being able to join the dots, with all the assistance modern graziers are provided with, wont be acceptable to the RSPCA nor the general public.
        Those guys are in deep do do.

      • totally different circumstances WW floods suck sh!t something massive but that pilbara thing and the kimberley thing before it is inexcusable. the water is available, just some lazy meatbag has to pump it. apparently pumping water is too hard.

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      The ‘farms’ in outback Queensland are a far bigger environmental disaster than the mines in outback Queensland. Hard for many to fathom at first. The cattle have destroyed the ground cover, examples of what the area is like without cattle is hard to come by as the entire place is a so called farm. But you can see it in places like the national parks such as the knee high grasses at the Camooweal caves (knee high during droughts too). Everywhere else , almost in entirety from Mount Isa to Charters Towers is dust and rock. That is a huge swath of land. Mount Isa mines, a huge mine, is a mere speck on that kind of scale. The air pollution is another thing however. It always amazes me to see stories on the news about farmers in drought at X cattle station. If you search them on google maps they turn out to be near Birdsville, in some desert or on the edge of a desert.

      Bailing out farmers actually enables bad farming practices to continue. Reality is the carrying capacity is very poor.

      Another fun fact – Glencore managed to get a subsidy to rebrick the copper smelter. https://www.northweststar.com.au/story/4369034/qld-government-offers-15-million-for-mims-copper-smelter-re-brick/

      • “Bailing out farmers actually enables bad farming practices to continue”

        Bailing out?
        Farmers have had something like 30% of their GROSS income (note Gross not Net)_ confiscated every year, year after year, for the last 60 years. This has consequences in all sorts of ways.

        I won’t argue about over-grazing as it is a vexed question and varies so much from place to place and person to person. However, I would take issue with some over-consuming self-indulgent city type demanding the confiscation of farms and closing down of industries. (not aiming at blind justice -just an observation about how things are)

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Hey Flawse,
        Is it true you can’t taste the difference between beef and camel meat ?
        If true why don’t they farm camel with soft hoof ?

      • Flawse, there is nothing ‘vexed’ about ‘overgrazing’. Whatever the stocking rate, the issue is not how many but when does the pastoralist give the land/vegetation time to recover. Having decided that, can the strategy be implemented and maintain a cash flow. This requires knowledge of plants, soils, surface flows of water and empathy for their stock. Most have the latter and little of the rest. They are not of this place and mostly look for simple answers to complex questions. Hence, we have the ecological disaster that is buffel grass. Then we have the traders in pastoral land with a short-term strategy to extract as much wool or beef as possible in 6-8 years, and on sell the property. Because land prices generally don’t reflect the ecological condition of the land, this makes you rich at the expense of the land. Of course, there are a few that are in for the long haul, smart, sympathetic to the land and the ecology, make decisions early, and are deeply rooted to place. We need more of them.

  5. I wonder what happened to the pasco meltdown article? MB get a nasty email? Must only be defamation if it’s about someone that isn’t Keen.

  6. Uranium GeoMEMBER

    So after a month of drilling in +44 deg. C heat in the Cobar Basin there has finally been some respite with a cool change (thank dog). Two more holes to go then supposedly off to Bougainville at the end of the month. This year is shaping up to be a ripper.

    • ChristopherJMEMBER

      The attraction of being surrounded by one’s toys under the one roof. That part of it, Gavin?

      Reckon keeping the shed separate is the way to go. Prefer the acreage properties you’ve linked to from time to time. Can’t beat having space and a bit of nature

      • Agree mate, also lifestyle change for me. Escape the inner city rat race feel. Grow more of my own food etc. Space for kids / dogs to play and get some water tanks+solar array etc..

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Gavin you would be amazed just how good even 1/4 acre feels, and the potential it has, chooks and so on…
        House sat for someone in one of the new estates in Smithfield, not recent, and I couldn’t wait for task to finish. Neighbours right on top of one another, can’t even plant a shade tree, no front boundary fence allowed and so on. Complete and utter crapification of what it means to build a proper home on a block of land.

      • I’m on the same path. I’ve been growing my veg for two years, and some good success, but a constant battle against bugs and disease, and climate swings can have a big impact. I built a low tech green house with builders plastic and managed to get capsicums from Jan to September last year. The plastic wasn’t UV spec so I have to get some that is, but the experiment did work. The difference between home grown without chemicals is huge IMO. My mate says my next step needs to be a water tank to get away from town water. The next thing I’ve learnt is to compost and dig that into the soil. I’ve seen my mates soil and it will turn to a dark loam I guess and his veggies are always better than mine, but he’s been doing it for years and learnt from his dad. I went solar and after a rip off it’s now ok and costs dropped. I get shading so had to go micro inverter Enphase, and Sept – March is great, and the other is about 60% worse due to lower sun and massive tree shading. So when I move we’ll get a block or a house with no possible shading as the energy difference is huge. Have plenty of trees, but nothing over say 5 metres. On my north side I have three 35m trees “gum” two houses away, and so far have been lucky no direct damage as in high winds we see branches flying horizontally over our roof. The houses to the south and east have all been damaged. I’d really warn against solar now if you have gums on the north side and have prevailing north winds. In Melb where I am we now get many days in the year with very high gusts 80-100km/h. Anyway, it’s been good and a positive change for my family.

      • Sounds great Afund.

        You are right, the soil is 80% of gardening I reckon. Put in the work on that – composting, digging, rotating crops – and everything else gets a lot easier. The rest is really pest control and watering.

        Have you got a worm farm? Their castings (poo) are like supercharged compost / fertiliser. Takes 6 months or so before they produce enough to us but then you’re ready. I chuck a small handful in the hole with every plant that goes in. It’s like nuclear powered plant magic.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        thank you, afund. Love to splash on solar, need to get some jobs under belt this year and will get something up top. Jeez, we got more Sun than Venus up my way. Everything grows here, except the stuff that needs a bit of cool and, yes, your own stuff always better and when surplus goes to neighbours and so on, it helps build your local community and sharing becomes more commonplace.

      • @CJ if you have no shading you can go serial system which is a lot cheaper. My micro inverter one was $6300 for 5.1KVA, and the same in a serial system can be half that price. If you have all the sun then your system will be more efficient most of the year as you have to allow for cloud. I can get say 38kwh on a full sunny day, but I still get shading at either end of the day, and on a cloudy day 12kwh.

        @Arrow2. No worms yet, but thanks for the tip. I’ll try and let you know.

    • innocent bystander

      I had one for about 8 years. Make sure you are comfortable with heating/cooling such a big open space – preferably by passive means. Most warehouse aren’t orientated for the north winter sunshine… like that Eltham place you posted (yesterday?)

    • ‘For families’? Didn’t see any families in any of those profile pics.
      Just dont know whay they just don’t say what it is. Cool and hip, expensive vanity projects mainly for double income couples who don’t have kids. Nothing wrong with that.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        haha. Exactly. Whoever styled those shots clearly doesn’t have any experience in living with children and thinks they are just smaller version of adults. Deeply unsuitable for families is what they should say!

    • I have been keeping an eye on Leichhardt. Not a fan of the warehouse personally except maybe for the Cyclops one because it still feels like a home inside with a nice high ceilings and in the middle of a residential area. I can’t stand the look of the exterior though.

      The one in Mackenzie street recently dropped their asking price. I just checked the history and it was last sold for $2.1m in 2016 up from $1.55M a year earlier. Asking price is now $1.9M. No more greater fool than the current owner. Even if someone stupid enough to pay the asking price then that is already a $200k loss + $100k stamp duty + interest.

      https://www.realestate.com.au/property/26-mackenzie-st-leichhardt-nsw-2040?source=property-search-hp

  7. ChristopherJMEMBER

    Great set of links as usual and several hours of my weekend are likely to be spent, such is…. Still, the article about the collision of the USS Fitzgerald is worth a cup of coffee and a read.
    Sheer incompetence, coupled with arrogence. Some brave men and women on that night…

    In a real war, I don’t know how long the US Navy would last….

  8. https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-09/frantic-response-to-morrisons-israel-embassy-announcement/10795798

    Key points:
    The Foreign Affairs Department was told about the Jerusalem embassy announcement one day prior

    Officials rushed to alert Australian embassies and advise them to take security precautions

    Overseas missions were asked to consider if the announcement would affect travel advice for Australians in the their countries

    Putting national security at risk in an attempt to shore up votes in a by-election that YOU LOST ANYWAY!

    I have never looked forward to casting my vote more than I am now. I hope these cvnts are left in the political wilderness for a generation.

    • You mentioned earlier you were trying to avoid some redundancies Nikola… hope everything works out.

      • The opposite mate. I am trying to get redundant and they try to tell me I am needed and are placing me into a new role. That new role is not exactly what I do right now. But need a lawyer to advice me if I have solid ground to fight this. I think I do.

        Gunna – if interested let me know how I can get in touch.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      My daughter is going thru a bum redundancy ATM in Qld.
      She contacted the Fair Work Commission and got some factual advice.
      Good luck.

  9. Residential Solar PV point solutions
    This is something that has taken my interest recently, in essence it comes down to finding residential electricity loads that can benefit from being directly powered by solar Cells.
    There are a few obvious loads such as:
    – Swimming Pools
    – Water heaters
    – Possibly domestic refrigerators
    – Clothes washing machines / Dryers
    – Dish washers

    I’m not sure that any other loads can benefit from using PV solar as available. The benefit in identifying and using your own Pv associated demand loads is that this action (and load separation) would not count as part of the maximum solar array size which residential grids are allowing
    For me it’s all part of experimenting with the nature of using “as-available” power to perform useful tasks.
    Think about this way: Do I really care if my washing/drying machine takes 1 hour or 3 hours to complete a load?
    It’s sufficient for me that at some time during the day this task happens….but how do you do this without the machine resetting? how do you guarantee the job will get done (sort of requires that you count backwards and start with Grid power or battery power IF you can’t finish.
    Anyway that’s what passes for entertainment in my world.

    • Nice idea. I find myself regularly monitoring the three way graphical on my Fronius app, displaying PV generation, household consumption and grid export. Having moved as much consumption as possible to daylight hours, when that cloud hits and generation falls below say 2 kWH it’d be nice to have a priority scheme set up to automatically drop certain appliances to avoid drawing from the grid. Things like refrigeration and pool (spa) are probably non negotiables for me given the health risks, heating/cooling possibly, but dishwasher/washers/dryer are a definite turn off. Not sure how some of these appliances would go with repeated interruptions, but that’s a priority framework right there.

      • IIRC – fridge/aircon compressors don’t really like repeated on-off-on-off cycles during operation.

        Rest of the stuff – should be reasonably resilient if not for the need to reset clocks all the time (though one could put a large enough capacitor to feed the clock circuit to ride the interruptions)

        The bigger problem is the resumption of cycle operation after interruption. Most appliances just power off and on come-back – the cycle state is lost (a bit of a ground-hog day in that regard).

      • Yeah the task is fairly simple for a Grid connected system and considerably more difficult for Off-Grid, I’m kinda interested in solving both problems optimally.
        As for pool filter there’s an interesting UNSW masters thesis (I believe) that deals with optimal swimming Pool operation especially wrt using available Pv power. Legally you’re in a grey area because many regulatory bodies specify minimum volume of water to be filtered each day and most existing pool pumps are simple Induction motors (so they run at a fixed speed or not at all) If you change the pool pump motor to a Brushless DC (BDLC) than you can easily run at variable speeds ( or you can fake out the induction motor by feeding it AC power at a lower frequency supplying 25Hz AC will significantly drop the motor speed and that’s fairly easy to do with a dedicated Inverter.
        OK so with variable speed Pool pump you should be able to pump at low flow rates early in the morning and super high flow rates at midday again tapering off as the day light fades. Total volume of water through the filter is what’s important but you obviously need to be cautious of operating something like a Satl water Chlorinateor when there is insufficient flow. If you want to understand the solar optimum operation of a Pool than the UNSW thesis is a good starting point. (unfortunately I can’t find a link at the moment I’ll try to add link later)

        As for other loads I’m playing around with connecting them all through X25 comms systems so that a central task allocater understands both available loads and available power and quickly switches between each giving priority to loads that must finish …I’m making storage water heating sort of a variable load because I really don’t care if I run out in summer so I calculate average Hot water electricity usage and allocate that much power each day more if available, less if unavailable. i intend to close the loop and look at total water heater capacity vs average water usage per day so I have a good idea of how much capacity I have above usage (many / most storage water heaters have 3 to 5 times the capacity vs typical summer usage)
        Anyway that’s what I’m doing.

      • if you think outside the box (set by sales folks) solutions are everywhere.

        WM with mecha-timer just continue after power resumption and some electronic do but the biggest problem is that heat cycle may need to be repeated or may skip – bad washing. Mecha-timer (old style) will behave better but they cannot wash nearly as good and efficient as electronic.

        WRT pool, instead of going the salesman route and bother with inverters, have 3 smaller pumps with cost probably a bit more than electronic inverter but far better efficiency. Vanes of the pump are speed optimised and are not in linear relation (e.g. 80% speed coild result in 10% flow). This means that half the flow will consume much more than half the power. Parallel pumps overcome that

        Focus on non-standard solutions for non-standard problems and avoid conversion of voltages where possible, especially large consumers. e.g. you can have grid connected heater in the hot water system that warms the water not more than 40*C (just about good for a shower – with loses in pipes) and additional DC solar heater (connected to PV directly without converters) to heat up further, when surplus power is available. max efficiency with minimum annoyance.

        IMO adjustment of the power consumption habits yields the best results overall and you are well into that…

      • Yeah the idea of using multiple parallel pool pumps is interesting but I would suggest you read that UNSW Thesis that I mentioned (I still can’t find it myself) I have it as a Pdf so I guess I could put it somewhere.
        I’t one of the few Pool recommendations I’ve seen that is not based on some Marketting guff trying to sell their particular (usually bad) idea. It’s amazing just how many really bad “solutions” you can find on the internet for Pool operations and so much FUD about how your whole family will instantly drop dead if you don’t operate your Pool exactly as per the installers instructions.
        As far as I can tell very little of this “information” is in any way fact based.
        Personally I’ve changed over to a Copper/Silver ion system and reduced Free Chlorine levels about 1ppm, works great no Chlorine/Chloramine smell and a great feel to the water and did I mention it’s Crystal clear.

      • @ Jimbo, the Datamanager in the Fronius inverter has a 12V DC wet contact. You can program it to turn on/off with some logic conditions such as PV power, net consumption, time of day. Use that to drive a 12v relay which in turn opens/closes an ac contactor to switch on/off certain circuits in your house – especially good if you have electric hot water

      • YEs
        But I have to design it first
        the machine is very simple, but it will be easier initially if I copy an existing
        they are very difficult to get your hands on.
        so am going around photographing as many machines as I can to get started.
        Will be in touch

      • You can run DC but that’s not as easy as it might seem / sound.
        Even a DC load system connected directly from a chain of solar panels has to have a Maximum Power operations system to keep the PV system output voltage at the maximum Power operations point. (that hardware is pretty much half of an AC Inverter.)
        IF you simply connect a DC motor or Universal motor to a string of PV panels you’ll run the PV system at an output voltage determined by the load and this load point is not necessarily single valued or monotonically increasing with increasing output current from the PV system. …think of the Pool pump case where the load has square law and cubic terms wrt shaft rotation speed.

      • yeah modern AC Inverter systems are basically Brushless DC motors running DC but convert the DC to 3 phase AC to run the variable speed motor. The problem with running this directly from PV solar is more to do with the PV system power optimization than with any other task. However that said I have seen some BDLC motor and compressor loads that are being deliberately constructed so that the variable load sets the optimal PV output voltage directly…fun stuff

    • fisho
      Interesting stuff.
      I’m always fascinated by people who think (perhaps as a result of advertising) that they are going to save a fortune with roof-top solar. (An idea reinforced by teh sellers of panels) Early morning the panels aren’t working because of the angle of incidence. People go to work and the only thing that operates all day is the fridge. Then they come home after the solar array has ceased working for the day. Of course the electricity companies give the householder sfa for what he/she generates.
      The idea of batteries, their cost, and resources required long term is a whole other discussion.

      Re pools I was thinking it might work if you just had filtering running and chlorinated manually at night (or in your ideas automatically injected and the pump turns itself on for 5 minutes) I think the sun would grab too much Cl in the case of alt water chlorinators.
      Anyway – interesting thoughts.

      P.S. I see your notes on the pool issue. I forgot water heating for the daytime. I just have instant gas here. Bit wasteful but I can be a day or a couple of days without power sometimes.

      • I just finished fixing the neighbors solar submersible dam pump. 6 panels and it pumps a head of 25m full power. So no problem with pool pump pressure. As for the salt cell they use FA power and you can hook them up seperate to the AC.

      • The problem is that the Chlorinator is usually ON whenever the pool pump runs however if you have a variable speed pool pump you really need to adjust the Chlorinator output to correspond with the pump flow rate because it can be dangerous to have too little flow (Hydrogen is the other gas given off so you don’t want that accumulating) at least that’s my understanding of the potential problem.

      • I’m not disagreeing with you Al but my point is that these “solutions” are not currently being implemented by any Pool installers. As far as I’m concerned this is some very low hanging fruit that could have a significant impact on our Residential electricity costs but they’re just not being talked about. The solutions are there but IMHO people from these industries need to be finding and selling these solutions.

    • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

      I saw a jury rig set up for a pool filter which ran directly off 2 solar panels (320W each I think). The motor for the pump was low wattage but effectively the thing only ran when sunlight hit the panels – effectively it was an off grid pool filter system. The key change was the low wattage pump as I understand from owning pools in the past that some pumps have a ridiculously high draw when they start up.

      For A/C you could look at split systems as they tend to have much lower drawdown start-ups and would work better than a massive ducted system.

      I got my imports down to very low levels by load shifting. Having a few panels facing west also helps for A/C and the evening cooking peak.

      • Sounds like they Probably used a so called Universal Motor (as is typically used in a washing machine) and connected it to a Pool pump. Universal motors will run at a slower speed if there’s just a little sun and super fast if the sun is bright. Unfortunately they’re not very reliable longer term because of the Motor Commutation so operated as a Pool motor you’d probably be lucky to get 6 months operation out of a typical Universal Motor which is designed for intermittent use.
        Pool Pumps really need to be able to run for 8 to 10 hours a day for 5+ years.
        I forgot that Universal Motors are also LOUD with a typical jet takeoff sort of noise especially at higher speeds.

    • interested party

      For a pool solution, have a look at these.
      http://www.dracodrum.com/index.html
      I installed one about 4 months ago on our pool….we swim in it…..but we also stock fish in it.
      It can run on 12V through a small inverter. I draws 35w when operating and 11.5 on standby. Ours operates every 20 mins for 1 min then sits at standby. This timing is determined by water quality. It filters down to 58 micron…that can be changed to a lower micron. A uv light in the water flow can sort out algae if you wish.
      We are looking at “podding” the solar power throughout the place. One pod for fridge/freezer…..on timers to run during the day and up to 10pm, then shut off till morning when power is generated via panels. Other pods as required…lighting, fans, kitchen appliances etc. There is a bit of investment in inverters, but the upside of that is we will have built in redundancy via several units completely separated. This is for a suburban off-grid design I am working on. We are very limited to the size of Kwts we can connect to the grid…..so we’ll go it alone.

      • Interesting stuff IP and that’s sort of what I’m talking about.
        These days you can buy used solar panels for under $50 each on Gumtree because people that installed 2Kw systems 8 years ago are upgrading to 5 Kw PV systems and they typically just remove the old system completely. The panels in all likelihood will be good for another 10 years so they’re ideal for using on point solutions. A typical Panel stand alone generates something between 200W and 300W which is about the same as the typical load for a refrigerator/freezer so In theory one or two Panels could run One refrigerator but the trick would be to ensure you had backup and sufficient thermal storage to go through the night without additional power.
        lots of solutions looking to be matched to their corresponding problems.

      • interested party

        fisho, look at some of the camping setups for stand alone ideas.

        I agree about the gumtree panels…..we have ten here at the moment waiting for deployment.
        For a pool pump idea, have you considered an airlift pump? Basically a reverse trompe. This is how we feed the filter I linked to above. It cycles the entire pool through the filter everyday and only uses a 6psi compressor designed for aerating septic tanks…uses 70W continuous.

        https://youtu.be/TOVZ4oklBFw

        I modified to suit the on site demands. It moves the water and also aerates the water for the fish. Quiet, and easy.

        trompe design…
        https://youtu.be/SScpJMsCm9c

    • If there’s a semi-portable solution in here for renters, I think it’s a gold mine. As a renter with a young family, I have high energy costs and no way to have renewable (cheap) power. Being able to run a washer/dryer off a panel or 2 I can have outside would be incredible.

      • I agree completely, it doesn’t impact me directly but I feel that it’s so worthwhile to “discover” these solution and package them in ways that enable our least advantaged sectors to participate and thereby reduce their costs. for me it’s an academic exercise for them it’s life, we (as a society) present an endless supply of shitty solutions that cost a fortune to operate and don’t really offer value for the bottom 25%…So what needs to happen to change this? Interesting stuff

      • As a guide, my shitty rental (terrible insulation, crappy design) for the last 12mon will have cost about $1800 on elec (gas cooking + h/w) – wife at home with 2 babies so lots of air-con.
        Getting a plug + play package for washer/dryer or even air-con would be saviour. Price point of $500(?). This would be a big market.

      • If you live in an apartment building than you’re probably out of luck because there’s not a lot that you can do.
        If you have a stand alone house or even a town house than you can probably look at simply mounting solar panels in the backyard (I’m not sure that there are any laws against this) but you are definitely on shaky legal ground if you install panels on the roof of a rental. Most landlords are not interested in having Solar panels installed because they do not increase their rental income but do potentially increase their maintenance costs.
        there have been a couple of court cases on who owns the electricity that solar generates so far the balance of the cases has been that the tenant owns this electricity so this means there is zero motivation for any landlord to install solar on a rental. Strange how a win for one tenant can became a loss for the group tenants but that’s where we’re at.

    • Bwahahahaaaa!!! We can all live on more debt!!! No need for no damned savings!! Next thing he’ll be writing about how Green he is preserving the planet!!!!!! Strewth!
      With his level of intelligence how does this clown have any job let alone be in MSM commenting on economic matters

    • This really is a stupid article.

      – economy is fine
      – no one knows why wages won’t rise [MUST NOT MENTION IMMIGRATION]
      – still, everything is fine [MUST NOT MENTION DEBT]
      – lower teh rates anyway because we love sugar

      What a fcuk-knuckle.

      • What will some say if immigration is slashed and wages still don’t go up, something about it being an anathema to markets since wages and productivity diverged – stock holders love it ….

  10. Sure to ruffle feathers round these parts.
    Krudd is doing gods work undoing the murdochracy but loses it with big Australia propaganda

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/09/kevin-rudd-chic-left-needs-to-realise-we-are-at-war-with-radical-right

    Kevin Rudd: ‘chic left’ needs to realise we are at war with radical right
    Exclusive: in a new essay, Rudd renews call for a big Australia and lambasts the Murdoch press and elements of the left for attacking progressives

    Kevin Rudd has revived his controversial 2009 push for a “big Australia”, saying neither maximum workforce participation nor productivity growth alone will generate an economy large enough and a workforce young enough to pay for the country’s future.

    The former Labor prime minister has re-entered the domestic political debate in an election year, using a new wide ranging essay called The Complacent Country to outline thoughts on identity, population, values, the influence and “unapologetic bias” of the Murdoch media, the deficiencies of the “faux left”, and to assess Australia’s place in the world.

    Rudd says in the absence of continuing significant migration flows, “who on earth is going to fund our most fundamental future national needs, from health and aged care, to retirement incomes to national defence in an increasingly unstable region”.

    “We run the risk of being a young country which becomes old before its time. These are the seeds of national decline.”

    The former prime minister’s intervention cuts sharply across the tone of the current political debate in Australia, with the Morrison government telegraphing a reduction in immigration, and policies encouraging migrants to settle outside Sydney and Melbourne.

    Labor has called on the government to develop a joint population policy, but Bill Shorten has not yet said whether he favours a cut in the immigration rate………

      • I don’t know if he’s a fool, but in my opinion this is an important question that needs to be addressed.
        Health and aged care systems are not like monetary systems where you can run a deficit and simply fund it by selling some more Iron Ore or Houses, you need to be able to allocate real people or machines to these tasks and size the work force to match the requirement …you really don’t have any other choices that deliver the expected (often regulated) standard of care.
        As a government you’re naive to believe that you can pass laws that require certain staffing ratios for aged care facilities yet know that the total revenue from aged care operation is insufficient to fund these staffing levels…something has to give.

      • Rudd’s is the predominant idea though – only one opinion allowed and that’s the progressive one. Anyone who doesn’t conform is to be persecuted abused and shamed. Later, when that doesn’t work the re-education camps will start.

        “you need to be able to allocate real people or machines to these tasks and size the work force to match the requirement ”

        In a rational money world that is what money represents.

        I know it’s a novel idea except to a few around here but…how about we SAVE and fund ourselves????
        I do know it’s too late. The answers lie back in time.

      • @fisho: what gives is the Emergency Department , where nursing homes ‘granny dump’ the patients they don’t have the staff to care for because they run reduced rosters on public holidays and weekends.

        All they have to claim is that a demented patient had an ‘unwitnessed fall’ and they get shipped into the ED with a guarantee that they won’t be returned for at least 10 hours at an absolute minimum.

      • @d6 absolutely it’s criminal the way that aged care and Assisted living places dump their problems on the Health system. I know that my Mum was living in a very expensive Assisted living facility when she had Onset dementia. Her problems were easily manageable within the scope of what i understood was Assisted living, however at the first opportunity they’d send her off to the health system, she had great private health but the point from my perspective was that consistency was more important to someone with Dementia onset and this routine / consistency was exactly what was interrupted when they dumped Mum on the health system. The Health system apparently couldn’t give her back until she was considered fit to return, so each minor fall turned into 4 week hospital stays and this totally ruined my Mum’s mental health.
        It was no different when she moved on into Specialty Dementia care they took every opportunity to dump her back on the health system, obviously this operational mode is profit maximizing for them but it sucks for the patients because it so hard to see Mum’s dementia step down each time she had a hospital stay and most were completely unnecessary imho.

      • At Skippy yeah Fraud is epidemic in the aged care sector everything about it operationally and monetarily seems to be some sort of scam but that said IF most of our population starts living beyond 80 we need to be planning for a large percentage of our future workers to be involved in their care.
        Dementia is a major reason for the elderly (but otherwise healthy) to end up in aged care and each year you live above 80 you’re on borrowed time as far as dementia onset…it’s not the guaranteed end for all but it’s also not a problem that we can simply ignore until the care system collapses
        I’m personally in the camp that there should be an Opt-out clause on life which is respected by the medical / legal professions. unfortunately dementia has a way of reseting your right to end a life that’s no longer worth living (see the movie Still Alice, it you want to know what I mean).
        ..and the whole industry profits from this …go figure.

      • Used to do a job on a specialist dementia team consulting to aged care homes. You’d get a lot of staff demand for education sessions in behavioural management techniques (as opposed to medicating everyone), but the nursing home admin would typically baulk at having to pay their staff to attend if they were coming in outside rostered shift time. Not surprisingly, things are slow to change.

    • There has never been a more dangerous egotistical and incompetent PM before or after Rudd, it was like putting a 2 year old in the drivers seat

      • Yeah i agree, but Tones is too dumb and conservative to change much so not so dangerous. Rudd wanted to mould Australia overnight into what he and cate Blanchetts latest brain fart was. I’ve encountered this type in business and they always go broke

    • While he certainly has a point that the right is ascendant and has far more ability to (and success in) drive public opinion, he’s out of his tree if he thinks we’re going to have any labour shortages in the forseeable future.

      Then there’s this rubbish:

      “In this ‘chic-left’ view of the world, Labor governments must deliver a 100% progressive reform agenda because, after all, Labor is supposed to believe in these things. Whereas from the comfort of the arm-chair’s recline, it’s assumed that because the conservatives have never believed in the progressive cause, what’s the point in ripping into them?”

      Actually Kevvy, we’d be happy if Labor Governments would just deliver a 50% progressive reform agenda and leave the other 50% to minors like the Greens, but you fvckers can’t even manage that. You get ripped for being a centre-right party because these days that’s what you are.

  11. Paul Samuelson — an economist in ‘the business of dishonesty’

    I think there is an element of truth in the view that the superstition that the budget must be balanced at all times [is necessary]. Once it is debunked, [it] takes away one of the bulwarks that every society must have against expenditure out of control. There must be discipline in the allocation of resources or you will have anarchistic chaos and inefficiency. And one of the functions of old fashioned religion was to scare people by sometimes what might be regarded as myths into behaving in a way that the long-run civilized life requires. We have taken away a belief in the intrinsic necessity of balancing the budget if not in every year, [and then] in every short period of time. If Prime Minister Gladstone came back to life he would say “oh, oh what you have done” and James Buchanan argues in those terms. I have to say that I see merit in that view.

    Paul Samuelson

    Samuelson’s statement makes me come to think of the following passage in Keynes’ General Theory:

    The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is com­monly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authori­ty, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.

    https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2019/02/08/paul-samuelson-an-economist-in-the-business-of-dishonesty/

    • This is closer to the tuth
      “The development of statesmen’s economic ideas over the last 200 years is indeed remarkable. If time ran backwards, we could rejoice in the amazing enlightenment and intellectual progress that over that period had caused such dark clouds of economic ignorance and error to roll away and be replaced with an era of rationality and sound economic management. Alas, time runs forwards.”
      Hutchinson

    • The point is flawse … that contra all the free will and free market dogma pettifoggery some in the economics profession were actually engaging in obfuscation about stuff and highly rewarded for their efforts. Largely nothing more than rank plagiarism ad hoc style and snitched together in lofty ideological rhetoric for consumption by the unwashed, worse some thought burnishing it with bad maths and physics would keep the unwashed beguiled by its scientism.

      I mean operating with out functional models of the hard monetary architecture and functional finance and go an a deductive lark is not very astute or support any sort of rigor, just a bunch of of twisted Bernays double speak to organize society to fit some predetermined temple.

      • Attacking the myth of free markets by creating a new myth about the death of agency, that is the flaw.

        Flawse is much closer to the truth here, this was choice. Give me convenience (and an Audii) or give me death.

      • Aj …

        Information arb precludes your suggestion about grand theory’s of agency, its as bad as boomer memes. But then again when one only operates on the deductive process and then passes it through ideological filters you’ll get that. Not that the starting point is some watery antiquarian concept of free will and that is what your defending at the end of the day.

        Must be difficult to understand or comprehend that not “everyone” myself for instance, believes in free will [I don’t operate on the assumption of belief on anything] and how that screws with your attempts to craft a self serving narrative wrapped around it. Like I said, you can take your Locke and cram it, that is, you can apply it to yourself, but when you try to enforce it on all of humanity – don’t be surprised about blow back.

        Have no dramas with you and yours applying it to your collective, just don’t project it on those that don’t believe in it.

      • You can believe the end of agency myth if you want skip, there is no support for this however, and neurologists and philosophers are still hard at it.

        You can’t however, use it as a moral agency platform to justify the abuse and viciousness you revel in.

        Perhaps look at the Neuremberg trials and the clash of positivist and natural law. Jurisprudence was here long before an angry bunch of anti-Randists decided the death of agency was the means to attack.

        (Rand et al fail anyway, without the end of agency myth.)

      • Morals are a belief system and I think I clearly noted I don’t formulate anything on that methodology.

        Your vigor in your belief has the opposite effect in my case as it does with anyone holding such claims based on basically nothing … again I said I’m fine with you holding yourself or like minded to it … until you project it on everyone.

        Nuremberg trials, that’s a hard stretch of the imagination to get a fit in our little conversation. How about those that helped fund it, after some set things rolling in the first place, and then some were given a hall past to forward the cold war cause.

      • I can’t see the point of it. The battery fluid needs replacing every 300 miles (not 3000). The battery needs servicing every 3000 miles. Energy per weight on par with Lithium batteries.

      • [A lithium-ion battery run on 130 or 140 watts per kilogram. Our flow battery has the potential to run between five and 10 times that amount.”]

      • I initially read it as 5-10 times the 20wH. 5-10 times lithium would be awesome but alas “Potential” = will likely never happen.

    • Sic semper tyrannis

      Only got to the Vice being absurd part so not sure if this is mentioned.

      Vice was part of the CIA operation MAGAZINE first started in the 1950’s which used magazines (obviously) like TIME to spread propaganda with well placed, OCCASIONAL, pieces. Vice was targeted as part of the CIA war on hearts and minds as part of its Gulf War strategy, things like embedded journalism etc, directly focusing on influencing younger people – now its just done through Reddit – /r/politics etc

      At the end of Obama’s Presidency he signed the Propaganda Act which set up the single largest secret organisation to ever be set up in a single act. At the same time he repealed the Muntz act which outlawed propaganda against US citizens.

      The Propaganda Act set aside funds to be used through domestic media outlets which included BuzzFeed, Vice and many others. This initial funding recently ran out – although the program over all is funded for years. This explains the layoffs across all these magazines.

      There is some conspiratorial deep state issues regarding Obama, Hillary and the CIA / FBI with regards to these new powers which I believe have a high degree of merit.

      Finally – a lot of this should go some way in explaining the “Fake News” which has proliferated globally as ALL FIVE EYES nations have implemented these laws – Australia’s, UK’s and Canadas are all covered with secrecy laws – you are not allowed to know these laws exist and no politician can disclose them.

      It really is wholesale propaganda.

      Looking at MB……

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        an ‘act’ means that it was passed by congress and the senate. Assuming this is the act you’re referring to:

        Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act is a bipartisan bill that was introduced by the United States Congress on 10 May 2016. The bill was initially called the Countering Information Warfare Act.

        The bipartisan legislation was written in March 2016 by U.S. Senators Rob Portman (R, OH) and Chris Murphy (D, CT). It was additionally introduced in the United States House of Representatives in a bipartisan fashion; co-sponsors included Congressmen Adam Kinzinger (R, IL) and Ted Lieu (D, CA).

        In both the House and Senate the bill was included in the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2017. It passed the House in this fashion in a conference report vote on 2 December 2016. The Senate then passed the measure in a conference report on December 8 by a tally of 92–7.

        So, Obama merely signed the act into effect. You’ll also note the margins by which passed each house of government.

    • Sic semper tyrannis

      Ok skimmed through – he talks about it at the end – although does not mention its predecessors or where it came from (1950’s + second gulf war).

    • Yes, it’s the Baby Boomers that kept you out of the market and caused wage stagnation and employment instability – has nothing to do with Mass Immigration at all. Poor brainwashed ABC monkey.

      • The inter-generational anger is fueled by the boomers being the only generation to really benefit from the crush loading of foreigners.
        Watching boomers who had a career doing did some unskilled job such as hairdresser drive Audis and mercs and brag about their property portfolios (fed immigrant renters) while you with two masters degrees struggle to build any security paints a pretty big target of frustration and fury on the boomers back.
        Boomers are the ones Howard appealed to, to build this distorted dystopian fiscal policy economy.

  12. ChristopherJMEMBER

    Apropos of listening to conversations…
    New client today and went out to meet, see if I want the work… Small two bed, stand alone unit – would have been the manager’s unit back in its hey day… Usual list of odd jobs, assemble and install pantry (Kaboodle), hang tv, cut 75mm off tubular legs on bed so disabled home owner can get into bed, a ramp so he can get in and out of his house…
    Oh yes and an awning, as the rain’s been coming inside via the double glass screen door.
    That sort of home owner can’t conceive how easy it would be to frame one up and put some colorbond on the top, so he points me toward Bunnings and shows me what they look like – $240 for 1.2m x 1m, couple of masonry bolts holding up the bracket – you get my drift.
    I took some photos, had a chat and told him I’d get back with a quote. I was going to get some flyscreen anyway, so I go there, find what they are selling by asking and even took a photo.

    I buy my items and go home. You all know what is showing in the advert to my right – yes, awnings.

    That AI, it never sleeps and is getting good at shaping my on-line shopping experience.

    Oh yes, and Google never tracks me

    • You have ads on your sides? These days? Oh, you must be of if those ‘natural internet browsers’ – browsing the internets like Cthulhu intended: JS cranked to 11, no ad blocks, pop-ups enabled and screaming “take me, I’m yours!”, 3rd party cookies managed by the Cookie Monster ( he can’t refuse any cookie ) and all flash plugins locked and loaded, ready to fire!

      I tip my hat to you my good sir, you are a braver man than I am!

  13. Agents love to blame bad weather for poor auction results. Lies, mostly.

    Hopefully the opposite doesn’t hold true either. Because it’s a glorious day in Canberra. Sunny, everything green after the rain, and a fresh breeze. Enough to make anyone overpay at an auction.

    Don’t do it you [email protected]! Remember – winter is coming.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Left my Oakley glasses on top of McCarrs this morn, turned back 10 mins later no one knew anything. Will replace with Oakley Jawbreaker Photochromatic clear. Seems wildly priced, online $333, Manly shop $355, Amazon $967.
      Last time tried several but the rest fogged up.
      Opposite with the Akebono front brake pads for the missus car, got ripped off by Pedders $215 (retail $285) Amazon $105.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Helped an old guy on way, he hit a 50mm x 3oomm branch, over the handlebars he went.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Is why my limit’s about fifty bucks, be. Had the best over the years, finally figured I was too forgetful, too prone to putting them down… But yeah, them oakleys, eh?

      • Smashed the front glass on our Bosch oven so I rang Bosch and contacted their recommended repairer in Canberra. $900 to replace the front glass, $500 for the parts and $400 labor. Politely told them to go fvck themselves after I rang Bosch to enquire about buying the parts myself even though I’m not trade. “Sure, no problems, do you have the part numbers handy”. While we were processing the transaction , I told the knowledgeable, delightful lady in the UK about my experience with their preferred supplier and she said that’s not acceptable and registered a complaint. Most businesses in Australia just don’t give a sh1t about customer service. In the end, parts delivered to the door from Germany for $250 and fitted for $180.

      • @BE bloody hell. Are they prescription? If so have a look around the US for a better deal. I just use some no names that I got from a cycling shop. They have those yellow lenses and are really good in low light. Had a really sh1t ride today. Only 60k in the end, but we got drenched, and it was 15c, but felt icy with gusts to 65km/h. On the way home my core was shaking. I had to really smash it to get warm, and got a bit of a rain break near the end. I was lucky, but the other guys got tapped by a cement truck that came in the bike lane at St Kilda. The guy stopped at the lights ,and went back behind the seat somehow so we couldn’t see him. I got his number and they are going to report him. On the loop through Port Melb, we saw him filling up at the depot. He was probably txting while driving??

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        a fund, not prescription but riding in the dark then sunrise in eyes need transition. Tried safety glasses etc but all fogged. Trying not to ride in dark anymore can’t see potholes or as like the old guy sticks

  14. Hey, does anyone know of or has made a My Housing Crash calculator, where people can put in their property vitals and then see:

    a) The total cost of their purchase beyond just the sale price
    b) The ongoing ownership costs including mortgage fees, rates/strata fees, interest, depreciation, etc
    c) The effects of increasing or declining prices on the return of your “asset” expressed as a percentage of your deposit, and
    d) Baselines of CPI, cash rate interest and ASX/MSI market returns over the same period.

    All graphed up nicely so they can vary the rate at different times during the life of the mortgage and tweak changes in prices to see how it will play out over the life of the mortgage.

    If it doesn’t exist, it should, so I’ll have a crack at making one. Anyone?

    • It’s a great idea.

      Perhaps call it something neutral and non-crashy or the terrified punters won’t use it. Lead them gently to the shocking truth… 😁

      “How’s my house” calculator. Or something!

      • If I were to be sticking it on a website, sure, but it’s bear-spreadsheet-nerd porn. Just for us sick MB types and friends and relos (hello Mum!) who really need to see the true cost of these things when the honeymoon is over.

      • Oh awesome 😁

        Can I make one special request? Can you put in a simple annualiser! You know, a proper compounding one where we can put in any percentage decline (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly) and it annualises it correctly? 😁😁

        Call it the Tardis.

      • In my head it will just have your 30 year mortgage by months and you can tweak all the variables that change month by month throughout the timeline. I’ll try and automate it so you can just stick in a list of dates and change the variable, such as a one off change in rates or decline, or fill a range with a series of values.

        It will come out in the wash providing someone doesn’t point me to a similar tool out there on the web. There has to be, surely, but I can’t find one!

    • That was a lot of words expended in the pursuit of saying almost nothing.
      Interesting that he chose to bring global population growth into the picture at the last minute – with the time to add a billion people to the world’s population beginning to lengthen, I assume he wanted to remind us that most growth that appears to be exponential is really logistic (an S curve), even when it comes to technology.

  15. Given the RC is now done it would be a great time to do a special post/primer on the alternatives to the big 4…. e.g. Me Bank and some of the credit unions etc…. I think people would be generally interested to see what else is out there.

    • ChristopherJMEMBER

      Sean, Bendigo and Adelaide have been better than the 4 and I’ve used them all. Low turnover of staff my way is a good sign. 3.8% on mortgage, got a two year fixed deal… Instant transfer of money to people – bought a ute recently and transferred $9k to him on my mobile phone. Friday it was. He said he trusted me, saw the receipt and so on. I said, check your bank mate, it’ll be in your account. Nah, he said and told me about how the banks keep the money until last minute…. Nah, I said, more competitive now, can’t get away with that ruse anymore. He reluctantly goes online and says, well I never.

      There’ll be others who don’t like them, have bad experiences. My tuppence

    • Every single ADI in Australia has a terrible loan/deposit ratio………..those that are not clearing banks have no real liquidity or cash on hand…….I believe they mostly have agreements with the big boys for cover. It depends what you want a bank for ( just don’t trust them with your savings )

      Only two banks I am aware of could last 10 minutes on their own now are J.P.Morgan and Citi who are both in the US……any large savings should be in government bonds or bills until they stuff those up as well

    • I’m gonna go see a big 4 bank to see how much they will lend me shortly. Point of reference only.

      Anyone know which are more/less restrictive / conservative right now?

    • alwaysanonMEMBER

      I fled NAB for ING a year or so ago and have been pretty happy. No fees, nice mobile app, Apple Pay etc.

    • yes trial …… I find it interesting that all those progressive activist types don’t seem to question how rap stars don’t appear in the ‘metoo’ lineup ……… hmmmmmm … wonder why?????

  16. Hey staggie

    Can I have some words about what you’re doing.

    Or even more about that Rhino suit.

      • Most engineers already know how to code.

        That’s a bold statement.

        In some industries, most Engineers probably know how to code.

        Most Engineers in general ? I’d be surprised (as would my wife, who is one).

        (I’m classing “know how to code” here as something good enough to walk into an entry level software development role, not be capable of writing a few dozen lines of scripting.)

  17. NEW ZEALAND: Six Wanaka KiwiBuild houses on open market | Stuff.co.nz

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110468062/six-wanaka-kiwibuild-houses-on-open-market

    KiwiBuild homes that did not sell in the ballot in Wanaka are now being offered to the public. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    New Zealand Vowed 100,000 New Homes to Ease Crunch. So Far It Has Built 47. – The New York Times

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/31/world/asia/new-zealand-housing-prices.html
    .
    .
    … Why is the New Zealand government repeating the mistakes of history … essential viewing …

    Inquiry. The Great British Housing Disaster (Adam Curtis, 1984) BBC – YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch5VorymiL4

    … Just ALLOW affordable new housing to be built … with land supply and proper debt financing of infrastructure … and spare us the infantile bureaucratic rubbish …

    • This is the concern if it becomes widespread, once current construction jobs are done jobs will dry up very quickly in second half of the year. Feedback loop will be ugly

    • Ouch.

      None of this “this will become a concern”. This is baked in but not yet priced in. Position accordingly.

    • Wowee. The pinned tweet on that account is also predicting a dire prognosis.

      “I’ll raise you 10% to 30% but FEB 2020. One on Sydney’s largest home builders today put off 30% of its Building supervisors. 500 homes to predicted 200 after June 2019”

    • Im not sure what he thinks Gladys can do about it (comments on the tweet).

      Western Sydney is certainly ground zero for this but it’s happening up here on the Mid-North Coast as well. Lots of new housing starts are getting delayed post land settlement.

    • I’ve been hearing about similar scenarios around Melbourne. Lots of planned small to medium subdivisions have been stalled or falling over since the RC started. It really highlights that it’s a tightening of credit which leads to a fall in property values which leads to a rise unemployment. Once the unemployment kicks in things really start to get ugly. It becomes tangible and people tend to pay attention at that point. That may be why people maintain that the rise in unemployment precedes the fall in property values. Anyway, it’s only the beginning. The bender isn’t quite over yet. The sun may be starting to rise but there are still a few cigarettes left in the packet. We can still tell ourselves that a little kip, some coffee and a greasy breakfast will save us. Those little lies are all we have at the moment.

      • That moment when you think ‘a glass of water will fix my hangover’, and you drink the water, and immediately throw up.
        And then you realise you have to drink more water to stop the horrible thirst, but you’re going to throw up half of every glass of water you drink.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Strange world out there, beyond my understanding. Just got out of a 3 1/2 hour surf, no hangover.

    • This line was the best, sounds like she was knocked out by her own fart.

      “Sources have told the Herald the woman may have been overcome by the toxic gas while she was in the toilet cubicle.”

  18. Australian mortgage brokers seem to be losing their sh!t about the RC recommendations all over the web (eg. https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/thread/2781357) but the threat of higher interest rates due to less bank competition appeals to me. With higher rates, people will be able to borrow less which should bring down house prices over time and if smashing the current mortgage broker model is the cost, it’s something I’d be willing to sacrifice. Some two bit bottom tier lender might shell out the big bucks for an overpriced crackshack, and I’d rather they go down than one of the Big 4.

    Some of the figures being thrown about are that commissions being paid are around $3k for every $500k in loans written which seems rather obscene. I highly doubt the average borrower isn’t going to want to pay that upfront, which should wipe out plenty of potential new borrowers and knock out yet another support for this house of cards.

    • By chance, I have a fixed-rate loan expiring next week. My impression is that the banks are shutting the door on the mortgage brokers, but at this stage they are still offering reasonable interest rates (2-year fixed) directly to customers, because they don’t want a big public outcry. They will wait a year or two and then start tightening the screws.

    • Hay lets talk about RE …. and not more fundamental aspects which set the back drop for say RE dramas and just about every other social ill …. classic libertarian myopia …

    • Sic semper tyrannis

      I was studying Masters of International Relations in the UK at THAT SCHOOL almost 15 years ago – ALEC was writing all of the legislation for congress and few read what they voted on (ALEC is a private corporate group).

      Thanks for catching up AOC.

      I’ve spent 35 years on Economics, Politics, Political Philosophy and IR at university etc – most on the US – and I can tell you something about how it runs.

      Congress is the most irrelevant, yet self enamored, institution on earth. And the juggernaut which controls the entire beast – the CIA, Pentagon and the Military have very little patience for it outside of keeping the cattle at home in check.

      Once you’ve seen the mind bending insanity of a city like Fallujah being obliterated with Chems and Clusters – mmolten hot depleted uranium ammunition traversing the entire city – the Highway of Death – you realise that AOC is in seriously deep trouble.

      She is a child, an angry child yelling about things we all knew 30 years ago……she is controlled and operated by one of Washingtons best up an coming behind the scenes gurus – she is in SO much trouble.

      Book mark this post – you are going to want to look back on it.

    • Sic semper tyrannis

      Know all about it, lived it, yet history shows things can be changed, hence AOC statements about democracy.

      • Sorry I don’t do ZH, long track record of plagiarism, wild conspiracy theory’s, wacky AnCap and Austrian views, remember old cog dis …. loooook into my eye lol …..

  19. So today we get an article talking about how the buyers are coming back from our friends at Domain:
    https://www.domain.com.au/news/townhouse-in-sydneys-waverton-sells-for-1-84-million-at-well-attended-auction-799937/?utm_campaign=featured-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link

    Now we get the results which say:
    295 listed
    136 sold
    57% Clearance rate
    $1 million median
    https://www.domain.com.au/auction-results/sydney/?ref=pos1

    You think that is a bit better. But it is just a little pent up demand from the end of last year…
    A good comparison is Feb 10th 2018 which has
    460 listed
    225 sold
    70% clearance
    $1.2 million median
    http://www.homeiown.com/docs/auction-results/2018/10_02_Sydney_Domain.pdf

    It is still very weak out there despite a puff piece from Domain.

    • Both Syd and Melb reporting mid-50s clearance rates but only two thirds of auctions are reported. So true clearance rates will certainly be in the 40s once those reluctant failures trickle in.

      Canberra ditto, 52% cleared but 25% of results unreported.

      • I didn’t make it to any Canberra auctions this week, but my quick take from the Canberra auction results is that just about everything at the expensive end of the market didn’t sell.

        In the REA sales list, the following sale in Watson is a bit of a shocker of an investment: https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/56-whitmore-crescent-watson-canberra-175007769
        Sold for $430k after being advertised for $449k+ and is about $10k over the previous 2010 sale price of $419.9K, which looks to be the off-the-plan sale price (2010 contract date and 2012 transfer date like many others in the street). Watson is a popular inner north suburb and has seen significant price growth, but there are lots of these small townhouse like houses on postage stamp blocks in that part of the suburb. It looks like prices for these types of properties were a bit higher a year or two ago, but they’ve not been good investments from a capital gains perspective, and this one is easily a capital loss once buying and selling costs are factored in. I suspect the flood of new apartments and similar properties around this price has been the main contributor to this one selling under expectations. If the seller had bought an old dump of a house in Watson on a decent sized block for about the same price (probably a little bit more) in 2010, then they’d be sitting on a nice, not so little gain.

    • Domain is right.

      THIS IS CHINESE NEW YEAR WEEK!
      Massive quantities of Chinese are here on holiday and new international students are arriving with their families as we speak all of which are eligible to purchase existing property.

      Last year there was a bounce at this time of year and there will be a bounce this year as well.

      The next few weeks will probably be as good as it gets though. The new international student thing is seasonal.

      • If your reasons for the bounce are true then the domain article is even more off the mark than I had originally thought.

      • Good points, thanks Gramus. Does this mean actually it’s a shockingly weak Chinese New Year weekend? Only 136 auction sales in Syd. Sounds catastrophic.

      • @Arrow
        You could definitely interpret it that way.
        It doesn’t take many to buy for there to be a bounce, especially when there are 10s of thousands of new international students arriving as we speak. I was in the Sydney CBD today and they were all over the place with their families who are with them on holiday over the lunar new year holiday week.

        Given that context it is a shockingly weak result. There will still be a bounce from where the market would be otherwise.


      • especially when there are 10s of thousands of new international students arriving as we speak. I was in the Sydney CBD today and they were all over the place with their families who are with them on holiday over the lunar new year holiday week.

        295 listed
        136 sold
        57% Clearance rate
        $1 million median

        So the Chinese have really lost any taste they once had for Aussie RE for once and for all.

      • Called in at a couple of open houses in suburban Canberra in the last couple of weeks, both listings in the $650k-$800k range. Seems that a number of the other people looking were locals wanting to buy accommodation for their adult kids. No sight of Chinese – I think in Canberra they focus on the apartment buildings around ANU and Canberra Uni (pretty much everywhere in the ACT and you likely need a car).

        PS should add in light of CA’s comment above that both places were on the market because the owners are moving into new apartments. Obviously no-one in Canberra knows about Opal and the cladding thingies.

      • Med price suggest vendor capitulation. Time will tell but I think this the first rush for the exits and as it gathers pace med price will go down with it.
        My wife was looking at online listings for Harrington Park and commented how all properties she saw were large mentions listed at around $950k. Those houses were selling for >$1.1m not long ago.
        I also noticed significant price falls on Mt Annan.
        Le’t monitor over the next 5-6 weeks.

    • There are a lot of people who can no longer get the credit to buy a large house and have lowered their expectations. IMO all the larger apartments and smaller houses/terraces will be selling for a premium for a little while yet.

  20. Our shoe shine boy moment.

    Fourteen properties and $4 million later, former McDonald’s worker Eddie Dilleen buys his first home

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/fourteen-properties-and-4-million-later-former-mcdonalds-worker-eddie-dilleen-buys-his-first-home/news-story/293e0be5a7a025b9cf8d81c5075af8f4

    Today Mr Dilleen’s portfolio is valued about $4 million and brings in annual rental income of around $230,000. His total mortgages come to “just over” $2 million with annual repayments of about $90,000. Rates, repairs and other expenses cost him about $60,000 a year.

    For Mr Dilleen, crashing prices mean opportunity. This week he snapped up the six-bedroom “distressed sale” in the Parramatta area for $750,000, knocking $130,000 off its initial asking price of $880,000.

    A year ago, a comparable house in the area sold for just under $1 million. “A lot of people just can’t get finance. The owners were desperate to sell it, it’s been (on the market) a long time and they just needed to get rid of it,” he said.

    “They were willing to take a hit on the price. The market hasn’t been too crash hot the past year or so, now prices have come down a bit. It needs a bit of work, a bit of paint and landscaping. It’s not my dream house but it’s better than renting.”

    He considered selling “five or six” of his properties so he could buy the Parramatta house outright but instead went to the bank for a $580,000 loan. “I’ve thought about cutting some of the fat and selling some properties, but it’s not my ultimate goal,” he said.

    • If he has $2 million in loans on $4 million of properties he may just get out of this without bankruptcy when it’s all over. Kudos!

    • I am calling BS. He is claiming close to 6% rental yield in cities yielding 2-3%. Also claiming 50% equity despite buying his first property only 8 years ago.

      • 50% equity isnt out of the question with how the market went nuts. I bet he’s on IO thouh and its been pure luck from price rises rather than yields being good and paying down principal. Lets see how he looks in 2 years.

      • 50% equity on entire portfolio near impossible. Think about how these vultures operate. 20% rise in first property gets you equity to buy another, another 20% rise in first two properties gives you the equity to buy another two, another 20% rise gives you the equity to buy another four, etc. In other words, most of the purchases would have been made closer to the peak.

        He only just bought a $750k house to bring his portfolio to supposedly just over $4m. That means before that purchase he is claiming his portfolio worth over $3.25m with only $1m in debt? No way.

      • Edit: I just read that he chipped in ~$200k for his last purchase. So before that he is claiming ~$1.4m debt covering over $3.25m in assets. Still no way.

        IMO more realistically if he has anything more than 30% equity then the remainder is his own savings and/or bank of mum and dad chipping in.

    • I can’t believe that graph from the ME survey Martin North put up only 13% homeowners & 11% of investors think prices will fall this year!!! Are we mad or is it them?

      • I read all the comments in the utubes i post, and commenters in there all say everyone they know is delusional and living in lala land, bit like our RBA.

        The banks and brokers rely on that to profit right to the peak.

        Lambs to the slaughter lol

      • Most people don’t follow market reports. They have no idea where prices are. You would be surprised how many people dont even know what the cash rate is and that has not moved in a loooong time

      • You wouldn’t believe the number of people I know who don’t know how much they get paid, so none of this is surprising

  21. I know this won’t be a popular post But I suspect we will look back as this weekend as the start of the recovery in Sydney Re prices.
    I don’t know what it is about the numbers but I suspect vendors have accepted that prices are down and buyers are snapping up the bargains. This won’t / can’t last long so it’s the capitulation that sort of defines the minimum and thereafter it’s all up up up..
    People here won’t want to hear it but I suspect it is reality. of course the problem remains how they finance these purchases but if the demand is there I suspect we’ll see the secondary mortgage providers taking big slices of market share, the big 4 banks won;t be slow tom recognize this and from that point on it’s off to the races.

    • How is roughly half the properties sold and a 20% lower early reported clearance rate compared to the same weekend last year a sign of the market coming back?
      Volumes are extremely low at the moment – reckon you’d want to see a noticeable increase in volume without it killing clearance rates completely to conclude people have started buying again.

      • Compared with a year ago things suck
        compared with 2 or 3 months ago they look better
        which comparison really matters is the bottom line?

      • Well, a year ago house prices were falling very quickly, just as they are today, so I’d guess that prices won’t stop falling quickly until things look better than a year ago.

        Not actually sure things look better than a few months ago either – late October last year, they were able to find upwards of 180 places selling by auction in Sydney. Other than that, at least from the weekend prior to Christmas to the Australia Day weekend doesn’t really count, so we need a few weekends to decide if anything’s different. Can’t see any sign of Saturday reports of 20-30% clearance rates in Domain or similar outside that period either (as opposed to corrected mid week reports)

      • Cooley Auctions clearance rate was 44% today selling 8/18
        Very low volumes.
        Don’t get ahead of yourselves.

      • All true but price minimums are almost always defined by the corresponding Volume minimum.
        So from that perspective the volume clearance rates for houses in the $1.5M to $3M Sydney have been terrible for the last 3 to 4 months way under 20%. Now look at today’s clearance figures for this segment and you’ll see a dramatic improvement.
        Don’t misunderstand me I’m not cheering prices higher but I’m also not too blind to see solid demand resurfacing in what was a dead market.

    • Sic semper tyrannis

      Ya Fkn wot mate ?

      Meh – just go and look at any price aggregator – prices are actually dropping by minimum of 16% across Melbourne with many well over 20 % and a fair few pushing 30%

      I watch regional Victoria farmlets and its like a burst dam.

      Inner Melbourne Ivanhoe, Fairfield, Alphington etc has about as many sales as East Gippsland – that would be one.

      • In my limited recent experience places still sell, but at the bottom of price guide range (Agents only have to provide price guides in Victoria not NSW), I’m seeing places sell but for $20-$50k below asking.

    • @fisho. Markets move up and down around overall trend lines. Watching micro movements too closely tempts us to incorrectly assess the macro situation. Real estate, in particular, moves at a glacial pace compared to other asset classes (e.g. stocks). Therefore, overall trend lines tend to be shallower and take longer to reach their peaks and nadirs. It might be good take a month away from watching it at all, then look again. If there is a trend strengthening or weakening, it will be easier to see over that time span. Nothing big is going to happen while you are not looking.
      I think that the downtrend in RE has barely even started yet. What you are seeing is a seasonal micro-fluctuation. Vendors have not even begun to realise how much their properties are going to go down. Of course I could be wrong, but this thing is going to play out over five years, not five months.

      • “Watching micro movements too closely tempts us to incorrectly assess the macro situation. “

        Try explaining that to the annualising tards

    • It’s possible, especially if you look at the graph from the ME survey in the DFA video link (around 7min mark) in the post just above, by far most people believe prices will rise or stay the same. It will take a generation or a depression to change the mindset of most people. But we’ll see if Mr Market resumes his lessons in the next month, I’m guessing he will as nothing has changed & some possible clouds ahead in many peeps minds (ie Labor government, tonight I don’t believe their policies will have much impact on M the market)

  22. I met Oliver Yates today who was out campaigning in Hawthorn. Seemed like a nice enough guy and I told him I’d be putting him ahead of Frydenberg on the ballot (but I was no more specific than that). The interesting thing is that he stated outright that his plan is to split the liberal party and then allow the progressive side to reform and regroup. I was surprised he stated it so blatantly, but I suspect he’s getting good feedback from that line.

    • Australian politics is in chaos because Labor betrayed workers, Greens betrayed the environment, so LNP were left as the least bad option.

      LNP moving to the left will fix it?

      Too funny.

      • What choice do they have? The lurch to the right was a fvcken disaster so it’s back to the centre. Lesson from Turnbull’s era is not to have someone like Turnbull. They need a strong, decisive leader who can keep the RWNJ’s in check but there aren’t any of those around.

  23. Trying to fill the emptiness in my soul with Amazon and Ebay, but there’s fvck all I want.

    What do you give the man who has everything, except a gram of rack, a case of grange and a sexually ambivalent scandinavian little person?

    • Can’t you get FIRB approval if you get a place declared unliveable (even if it’s due to the awful 2010 colour scheme) and knock it down and rebuild it?

      • Yep. if it is at the ‘end of its economic life’ or you are increasing the housing stock by developing the site,

        FIRB rules are an f’ing joke.

  24. Lmmao its like feeding time at the libertarian zoo with RE prices today … some call this economics ….

    • Some drop science – I’m dropping English
      I don’t smoke weed or sess
      ‘Cos it’s known to give a brother brain damage.

      – Serial hip hop start up founder and near billiionaire, Andre Young, notable for his 1992 release, the Chronic,

      • Ahhh the proverbial kid made good by boot strapping and as such their words hold more gravitas … yet is still an entertainment rap artist … how compelling a narrative ….

      • Bootstrapping?
        Just like Mozart, McCartney and Richards, the son (or grandson, in Richards case) of a musician becomes a musician, and arbitrary chance and survivor bias leads to cash rewards (okay, not really in Wolfie’s case. But maybe if he’d had an Allen Klein…).

        Not sure about gravitas – just think it’s catchy, and think there’s some chutzpah in rhyming ‘Buddhist’ with ‘do this’.

      • If you say so.
        I just thought you liked talking about libertrarians more than talking about RE, and the ex-members of NWA are pretty libertarian (not to mention Eric Wright’s notorious links to the Bush White House)
        I’d go so far as to say they’re literally the most entertaining libertarians out there.

        Overall, though, bitching that people are discussing real estate straight after the auction results come in on a site started by a guy who likes to be called Houses ‘n Holes is a bit like complaining there are people talking about horse racing at the Melbourne Cup.

      • Hate to brake it to you but the fixation on RE and the P&L of pinning hopes on mugs that ended up being prime examples of Grishams law regardless of PR optics is not a good baseline for trust …

      • Meh – RE prices are just a form of entertainment, like rap records, gambling or astrology, the latter being more scientific than economics.

        Hence why I was dropping science to begin with.

        https://xkcd.com/904/

        Narratives are fun – most entertainment relies on them, and people deserve to be entertained on Saturday night.

      • Groan firstly you never respond to the thrust of my statement e.g. RE prices in isolation are not an economic debate, but an ideological talking point.

      • No, your point was boring.
        The cadence of ‘some call this economics’ reminded me of a hip hop lyric which had better entertainment value, that’s all.
        At least Mig was good for some appreciation of golden age hip hop, even if his overall taste in music was (probably still is) as atrocious as his other opinions (President of the UWA Electronic Music Soc, ftw!).

        It’s Saturday. Talk about that ideological malarkey some other day.

      • Not meant to be. Human interactions aren’t logical, nor is the process of getting another human to talk about what you want to talk about.
        I mean, otherwise economic theorems that assumed a rational choice theory would have a chance at holding water.

      • Robert – nice one… and I thought I was the only person on the planet who was happy to get both the movies Straight Outta Compton and The Big Short for xmas last year…!

      • I put all the information blogs I watch in context for the duration I’ve viewed them, hence your emotive state is about as relevant to the fundamental reasons this blog – for example – exists. Might as well say hay look over there every time something is tabled that makes you uncomfortable or challenged. Same goes for anecdotal or personal tastes with what is or is not interesting and then making vague references to rational agent models.

        My point stands … crashing RE prices won’t fix anything, nothing in the U.S. data suggests otherwise, just the opposite. That a few think they can buy their hearts desire at a price point they feel is rational and sail off into the sunset really does not take in the totality of what larger social ills will flesh out their surrounds.

        Never understood why these sorts don’t just move to say Brazil or such and live life large, rather stick around and whinge about how everyone else is irrational because reality doesn’t square with their ideology. Not that it would be funniee to go back some years before the GFC and see if they weren’t ringing in the glorious future is here now.

    • What planet do people like you come from – ???? – recessions are forced liquidation of underclass assets to prop up the financial elites paper ….

      • Its a guttural response to a knuckle drag’er that has zero added intellectual value to anything, save urging his camps vulgar propensity for ignorance in the pursuit of some utopia.

        Persoanly I find it mentally taxing and having too lower oneself to that level to get a point across more than a bit disturbed.

      • Reusa is one of the most effective debaters on this site. The reasons are clear:

        1. Brevity
        2. Everyone understands him.
        3. He has been right about everything since 2012.

      • Shishkebab Skip,
        age old trick to make clubs loaded is to allow free entry to entertainment ladies….
        Their job is not to make intellectual conversations but to boost the customer return rates (and consumption)
        Bots do the same… and some provide exceptional entertainment. Sure no need for gripe.

      • Right about what – “””” – when their is absolutely no reference points or data for anyone to delve into … its all just one liners and wanking off … give me the data …

        I mean those that pontificate about stuff going south when their ideology is based on it is a self fulfilling prophecy… then call themselves sage …

      • Don’t over tax yourself, could lead to permanent damage, not to worry though, with enough money some lady’s still find drooling old fellas appealing or at least their money. You might even feel young again ….

      • Reusa realised a long time ago that satire is the most effective way to highlight the absurd mess we are in. I’m told he’s was posting under another nom de plume before transforming into the beautiful social butterfly we now know him as. I’ve never figured out the name he used to use. Does anyone have an idea?

    • I had never understood the intention of UBI to be to encourage people to seek work, but rather, to be deal with the fact that, as more and more work is automated and there are less jobs, to allow people to still have some semblance of a quality of life.

      • It’s other stated aims are to compensate those that do unpaid work (stay at home parents, carers, etc), allow people to spend more time with family (that was a result from an American trial), give people the opportunity to avoid exploitative work and situations (that was a result from a trial in India) and, to reduce the burden on other social services like health by reducing the problems that come with poverty.

        If it were to be considered as an option it would have to be introduced in a manner similar to the decriminalization of drugs in Portugal. One of the conditions was that the money that was spent on the war on drugs was put into health and education. It was acknowledgement that changing one thing is not effective by itself. If a UBI was introduced at the expense of other social services, or was to become some sort of credit system to pay for social services, then it would just be another step along the path to Stephen Morris’ refeudalisation.

        Guy Standing’s book is the best starting point for anyone who is interested in the topic. That should include anyone who is critical of the idea. It may not sway their opinion but at least they would have had a proper look at it.
        https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/304/304706/basic-income/9780141985480.html

        As well as being and advocate for UBI, he is also a critic of rentseeking, especially patent abuse. He sees the capturing of these rents, which are extracted from the community by way of a legalized monopoly, as a way to reduce inequality. The interesting thing about this is that it isn’t Communism or Socialism as it is going after unearned income. He isn’t suggesting that patents are bad and that those that develop something should not be rewarded. He is opposed to their extension through minor tweaks and other sorts of anti competitive behaviours. But I digress.

      • I made reference to it as a concern that it could become a token system in place of what are now publicly provided services. That’s a possibility, not a necessity.

        If your only objection to something is that a group you dislike happens to promote a version of it then you aren’t offering anything to the conversation. Would you refuse to listen to Miles Davis if you found out that the Chicago School had a fondness for ‘Kind of Blue’? Or, how about declining a glass of red because that’s what Milton Friedman like to finish his day with? I doubt it.

        And since you requested it, here’s some FFS
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqdAsvyHluI

      • Yep. UBI is needed to reduce inequality – which is at a 70 year high. If you want to put Aussies into jobs, just deport the foreign “students” within 12 months of graduating (unless they get a $150k/year job). Simple.

        UBI would probably reduce domestic violence and send the message that mothers are valued:

        Australia Needs A Universal Basic Income, And We Should Start With Mothers
        Women should not need access to a husband to avoid poverty.

        He wanted her to beg him each time she needed cash

        https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-super-wealthy-wives-trapped-in-a-gilded-cage-20181107-p50eg3.html

      • Footsore it all based on deductive thinking and ideological preferences which skew right wing social order, if you don’t grasp the larger picture of what that entails you either side with it or are ignorant about he history surrounding it.

        The right wants to fob off the dead weight they create and the left, due to decades of introverted navel gazing, thinks its a human rights issue. Nether side has an functional economic model or theory about it, its all ideological driven.

      • footsore – great point. Microsoft, APPLE, Intel, all big US Pharma and others use IP rites to extend their patents beyond anything reasonable by applying manor tweaks and basically became rent seekers. But only certain companies are allowed to do this. Many others have seen their inventions expire without generating any income or generating very little.
        I think CSIRO received only a fraction for their invention of wi-fi considering the mass use of the technology. but if wi-fi would have been invented by IBM, APPLE or Microsoft, these patents would have been standing until end of humanity.
        Microsoft Office anyone??

    • “An experiment with a state-sponsored basic income didn’t encourage the unemployed to look for work.”

      Was it supposed to ?

      Is Finland struggling for labour ? Are there jobs going unfilled ? Productive work going undone ?

      What were the objectives and expected outcomes of the UBI trial ?

      • I have no clue nor interest more than few lines past the headline.
        In my view this is an expensive attempt to prove Lions can be vegan.
        or “my donkey learned how to go without water, or food, and all went well until it dropped dead. I wonder what went wrong”

      • I always thought smithy that it was an admission that the market can’t or won’t provide full employment, emphasis on the latter – see Hudson.

    • The second year’s results will be reported in 2020, but as for the first year, it seems the basic income made the subjects feel healthier and less stressed.

      http://fortune.com/2019/02/08/basic-income-finland-employment/

      So the results are yet to be released. But within just 12 months, recipients felt healthier and saw the doctor less often? Cool. That reduced pressure on the Medicare budget. The recipients were already on the dole anyway – but they saved the taxpayer money by not seeing the doctor as often.

      Opinion
      Universal Basic Income Didn’t Fail in Finland. Finland Failed It.

      51 percent of respondents said that providing a partial basic income (€560 a month) was a “good idea,” compared with just 21 percent who thought it was a bad idea.

      https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/opinion/universal-basic-income-finland.html

      So what happened is, a clear majority of the people in Finland want UBI and a right wing prick government thought, “how can we paint UBI as bad? Eureka! Do a very short trial that is designed to fail.”

      The Bloomberg article says 56.1% of UBI recipients feel that they will get a job in the next 12 months compared to 44.8% of non-UBI recipients. Seems like a success to me. Could always do a 5 year trial to be sure.

      • The death sentence is there, whatever the results. No more from Jan 2020.
        I doubt sentence was reached without knowing the final results.

        What makes animals work is hunger and insecurity. Hence the route to farming and later to any work that can be exchanged for food and security.
        Remove both from fear and only robots would work. But someone has to work on robots…
        Communism revolved around everyone contributing as much as they could and everyone getting everything they needed. Lion can go vegan only so much before it devours the zoo keeper or dies of malnutrition.

      • The real world experience is that rather biblical outlook on everyone being fundamentally lazy good for nothing sinners, is wrong.

        The most obvious counterpoint is the membership of any volunteer organisation, but anyone who does more than the bare minimum work necessary to feed and shelter themselves proves it wrong, as well.

      • €560pm in Finland is pretty half hearted attempt at UBI, I’d say, so a pretty good result. I think it’ll work as most people whip always want that bit extra, so will work for the extra to get ahead. While others could use the time to be more inventive thus generating wealth in longer term. The trouble I have with UBI is that so much of it would just flow offshore as countries like Finland & Australia import too much into our unbalanced economies, have oligopolies, monopoies etc. Distorting taxes. Therefore we need to change a number of things at the same time for it to work properly.

    • So not only are you a globalist, you are a right wing something as well.

      Are you yet to get an Aussie passport? Is that why you want mass immigration to continue? Or do you want mass immigration to continue because you refuse to pay for a MB subscription and higher wages.

      Lions eh? So be like Somalia and kidnap you for ransom. Or be like lions and ban foreign “students” from entering the den!

      Given that most people want UBI:

      8 Feb 2019

      the idea has gained such momentum that the question is no longer if it will happen, but what form it will take.

      https://www.ft.com/content/a7ef07ec-2a00-11e9-9222-7024d72222bc

    • damn, I clicked on the link and now my day is ruined. cannot unsee

      You understand that putting “Auto Expert” and “John Cadogan” in one sentence is a school example of an oxymoron.

      He used to be …. don’t buy S-class Merc, buy a Mazda instead because it is cheaper to run and now it became buy a KIA instead cause it is cheaper and has longer warranty.

      • I have a lot of time for John. A modern well built Japanese car will almost always be vastly more reliable, better value and cheaper to run than a European one. I am talking “normal” cars here not proper sports cars. But if you have an ego or you think you are buying sex and sizzle, Japanese is too boring so go ahead and buy Euro. I get it. Otherwise, Euros aren’t objectively “better” cars on any measure that matters to most people except ego. They are better for impressing people, yes. They have a badge and a price tag. Some will argue they “drive better” but that is a subjective matter of opinion (usually held by people who have never driven an AE86 twin cam Corolla through the Snowy Mountains… good times).

      • It’s more that with Euro cars you can typically find at least one variant in each model that doesn’t require you to compromise on comfort, or handling, or interior, or aesthetics, or whatever.

        With Jap cars you generally have to accept you’re going to have to compromise on something. For example, the new Hyundai i30N is (at least) as good as a Golf GTI to drive, looks pretty good, but is let down by its interior. The Mazda CX-5, Hyundai Tucson and Kia Sportage are great mid-size SUVs, but they don’t have performance models like the Audi SQ5 or BMW X3 M. The Subaru WRX is an absolute weapon, but sucks as a daily driver because of the rock-hard suspension, and no longer has a hatchback version (and for quite a while you couldn’t buy an automatic version, I think they have a CVT option now ?).

        Though, to be fair, in Australia where most Euro cars are ridiculous overpriced (30-100% more than equivalent models in the rest of the world), it’s easier to ignore that.

      • Got a mate in BNE who’s moto is buy a Jap because there’s nothing that goes faulty from A to B (both in time and in space) – because there is ‘actually nothing’ – what is absent cannot go faulty. He considers cars an unavoidable nuisance and Camry is the least nuisance in his view and experience Nothing wrong with that.. excellent logic

        Different folks and strokes, that’s granted, comparing apples and oranges does not make an expert.
        There’s much more to cars than sheer purchase+resale value and the running cost for those that are interested in more than these 3 metrics (not the appeals you mentioned).
        JC claims* that anyone looking outside the 3 metrics is a moron and that alone puts him in the loony basket. Not to forget sophism-galore. By that logic WRX STI fails majorly apart from the resale value.

        That, not if AE86 was best Corolla ever, or 280Z or MX, RX, gen2 CR-X… which were/are great cars

        (* = up to 2 yrs ago as I stopped seeing his videos, inclusive of the link above)

      • “With Jap cars you generally have to accept you’re going to have to compromise on something. For example, the new Hyundai i30N is (at least) as good as a Golf GTI to drive, looks pretty good, but is let down by its interior. The Mazda CX-5, Hyundai Tucson and Kia Sportage are great mid-size SUVs, but they don’t have performance models like the Audi SQ5 or BMW X3 M. The Subaru WRX is an absolute weapon, but sucks as a daily driver because of the rock-hard suspension, and no longer has a hatchback version (and for quite a while you couldn’t buy an automatic version, I think they have a CVT option now ?).”

        Kia and Hyundai are not Japanese, they are Korean. Also you are comparing Mazda, Hyundai and Kia to an Audi or BMW? Really? What planet are you from? People generally buy Hyundai and Kia as cheap, reliable, entry level transport (though I would consider Mazda a tier up)…yet you are complaining they dont have a performance version?

        And have you even driven a WRX before? You need to harden the f*ck up if you think they have “rock hard” suspension. I guess SJW types generally are a bunch of soft c*ck pansies. You want a hatchback version? What do you think the purpose of the Levorg is?

        Stick to defending feminists and transexuals…you clearly have no clue when it comes to cars

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        @ Trial, funny you should mention that car. Have a Merc 320 with v6. 20 years old, but it hammers, grips and makes me grin.

        Came out of golf course today and had to put foot down to get clear, went round corner quick and he’s right there behind me for while until we get to lights.

        Kid’s stuff I know, but when we get green, he screams off and I tried to keep up, but wussed out on flooring it as we were both turning right (him on the outside). Yes, those new hundis are quick, eh?

      • Trial,

        As much as I will almost agree on the last chapter of your comment, all the rest is, well, unjustified.
        Comparison was made between the feature packages available for Asian and Euro cars. The rest is semantics.
        A fair comparison is between VW and Mazda, or Škoda and say KIA or Hyundai as they aspire to the same market and segment.
        VW is perceived lux brand only in Aus and Albania.

      • Stick to defending feminists and transexuals…you clearly have no clue when it comes to cars

        LOL.

        Maybe come back when your voice breaks, you’re actually buying cars instead of reading about them, and you can come up with some decent insults.

  25. Doesn’t feel like property is about to bounce back. Sitting on the sidelines of kids sport today, talk among parents was about falling prices with several people in the industry saying they expect another 15-20% down.

    But of course, domain wouldn’t try and talk things up and boost confidence at the start of a new year.

  26. Here’s something for anyone looking for 20 minutes of entertainment.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvfWeAoGDHU
    It’s two people giving competing pitches for film biographies.
    One is for Jeb Bush, the other is for Stephen King.
    You only need to listen to the sound.
    There’s quite a bit of cursing from one of the pitchers.

      • There is no bright side to this… I can’t believe anyone could be so barbaric to a 6 year old child and others could stand around and do nothing..

      • Some people wonder the same thing about how we treat refugees.

        I guess it’s a bit easier to accept when it happens over the horizon.

      • For the record I’m not a fan of treating refugees the way we do. Putting them in detention etc..

      • Look on the bright side. One fewer of them now.

        I guess it’s a bit easier to accept when it happens over the horizon

        That’s a seriously sick unhinged perspective on a 6yo kid horror slaughter with a bottle glass.

      • That’s a seriously sick unhinged perspective on a 6yo kid horror slaughter with a bottle glass.

        Obvious satire was obviously not obvious enough.

    • Gav, nothing to do with Islam, it is just the Saudi state doing what it does. Add to that kidnaping and murder of its citizens overseas, severe restriction of female rights and sponsorship of terrorism, and one wonders why we are an ally in Middle Eastern affairs.

    • Religion of peace and love. Yeah right.

      Think we need another General Pershing. Although the apocryphal story of how he sorted the mus11m insurgents in the Phillipines has (probably) been discredited, it seems like a real good solution. Even if it was just a rumour, there were no mus11m terrorist attacks for decades.

    • Religion and Peace are incompatible …

      Is it more humane to dispatch someone quickly or stuff them in a box and extract rents off them, used as slave labour, investor income stream, et al ….

      • I don’t see Pastafarians running around cutting heads off for using the wrong sort of Rague sauce?

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Yes, Tony. And, it’s only 10 o’clock. More post from the marsup than anyone else. You’d think he has something to say that we can grok… hey?

      • tonydd…

        I understand that is how you feel, but, what do you have to show beyond that personal belief. Its well known say American neocons helped and funded extremists to do their dirty works, the result of which was ISIS.

    • Previous comment didn’t make it through the censor.

      I said lslam needs to ditch Mo hamed. Return to its original roots where is was more of a religion with a monotheistic belief system, before it was corrupted by vile, war monger Mo hamed and turned into a violent ideology.

      I appreciate lslam is entrenched and an inherited cultural practice, but time for a review. Without Mo hamed it would have a great chance of being a religion, and a religion of peace.

      • Sic semper tyrannis

        I don’t know why people would get so shitty about history because its “Chinese”.

        The Chinese were well known to be at the forefront of sea fairing for centuries before Europe even climbed on a boat – its nothing new.

        Chinese fleets were known to have visited the United States well before any European and it almost tore the country apart as they had an internal rivalry between the Eunuchs and Bureaucracy over “expansion” and the fleets were recalled.

        The Chinese were travelling all over South East Asia and it would be absolutely FAR MORE surprising if they had NOT set foot on Australia – it would be historically / statistically absurd to think they had not.

        People seem to think China is some sort of “late comer” and back water on the world stage – it was the preeminent and most powerful / advanced country on earth – by a VERY VERY long way for almost 5,000 years.

        It was far ahead of anything in Europe or the west for almost all of history.

        Our “classical” history based around Roman and Greek times is so absurdly risible compared to the huge developments that the Chinese were making at that time.

        Its quite interesting how very little people understand about Asia – it really is.

        I wonder how many here understand Japanese history – very few I would suspect would even know what the Tokugawa period was.

      • Sic semper tyrannis … pretty much goes to show the level of high school history education w/ a side of MSM articles …

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Someone has been reading the Gavin Menzies rubbish and decided they’d make a name for themselves.

      Although, Gotti did say recently that we’re a Chinese state. He’d be old enough to remember a visit.

    • It wouldn’t surprise me to find us listed in their war room with a chinese flag on the country. They probably claim to have settled the US, UK,Europe, and Russia …watch out Vlad. Hold on, why stop there, they founded the whole world.

    • 600 years. Judging by some of them pushing prams with their great great great great grandchildren in them, they’re still going strong! Great healthcare in OZ.

    • Agree with Gav.

      “The men discovered the statue using metal detectors during filming for a documentary about the early 1800s French exploration of Australia.”

      Yeah right, how coincidental!

    • The Chinese are just building up a case for taking over WA – gives them access to major sources of iron ore and gas, plus gold and base metals.

      We deserve this crap for allowing them to undertake direct investment in Oz, including buying up real estate and farms, and shipping their surplus population here.

      Oh, and they are developing large farm areas using the water from the Ord River scheme, so another reason to finalise the takeover. Thanks John Howard, Gough Whitlam, KRudd, PKeating and many of our very own Oligarchs that are Chinese stooges.

    • (From that article)
      “When you bring something foreign into any ecosystem, it naturally has an impact. More often than not, it’s a detrimental impact.”
      That seems a bit at odds with what current sentiment is, and also, don’t you guys have a ‘foreign buyer ban’ on established property anyway? So any increased demand for new-builds ought to be good?

  27. New cars don’t come with sat nav anymore but come with Android auto instead, fine. But this POS listens to your convos in the car the whole time, then when you go on the browser the ads will bring up something that you talked about, it is extremely targeted. I tried to disable permission of google services microphone but then the AA stops working. What a joke! I’m gen y and lately I’m steering further and further from tech, AA can go and f itself, cars are the new listening devices, I’ll go back to the Garmin.

    • I agree I’m starting to reject all this “progress” at the expense of privacy or giving up more and more information about yourself so companies can profile you with ever more granularity.

      We did fine before all of this, sure Google is useful (Facebook has any purpose?) and we used maps fine, we have a generation of people now who believe everything they see online, hence the fyre festival debacle etc.. need to go back to old school approach of doing everything.

    • I wonder if some remember the technoglibertarians banging on about using enough data to virtually time travel some 10 years ago.

    • Base models don’t come with GPS, spend a bit extra for the model with leather seats and you’ll find GPS is also thrown in as standard

    • Just buy a good Garmin Sat Nav. If you ever go out of coverage on the phone ones they also stop working. I haven’t tried it here, but in the US my phone was useless as a sat nav. The stand alone Sat Navs that don’t have any uplink data link are much better anyway. The way the mobile GPS works is to access the satellite data in the paging cycles, or idle time depending on the air interface 2/3/4g. It takes longer to sync depending what’s happening in the mobile basically. So for a $150 imo it’s a better choice. On smartphones assume everything is being collected.

      • Thing is its not ‘free’ I still have to purchase my phone which is not cheap and I’m forced to choose either Android or Apple which are both as bad as each other, I bought Windows for a new build comp for $199 and it too is very intrusive. You buy a new satnav with connectivity and it also collects data and they aint cheap either. We are paying for the privilege of being watched and our data being sold. My contract ends soon so i think ill go back to basics and get the Nokia.
        By the way I am a tight arse and didn’t fancy spending 10k extra on luxury stuff.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I use GPS over a dozen times a week finding Customer houses,….Google maps used to fk up all the time.
        Cant beat a proper stand alone tom tom.

      • Arm nothing beats Waze in terms of time accuracy, routes, police presence and speed.
        But that tingle you may feel on the nipples… it’s because you’ve been killed for data.
        One can kill the positioning in android apart from GPS but it troubles you on every step to.turn on permatracking….

    • It won’t matter soon with the Matching Services Bill 2018. Don’t read the weekend AFR on this or look it up. We’re heading for a China type system with all levels of gov/local services/traffic/ looking at us 24/7. It’s unbelievable, but it’s already happening at a certain level, and similar to Google’s smart city in Toronto. Life for out kids is going to be very challenging. Also, don’t look up Amazon’s system that Bezos is selling to govs.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Can’t help myself, afund, to find out about that kant. Link?

        He’s still selling my books without permissionm, and without any royalty. Don’t have enough to go over there and tell him to desist, so what can you do?

        My free advice is to never, ever, buy anything from Amazon. I have and have always regretted my decision.

      • @CJ He’s not well know for providing honest payment, and that’s for products and his staff. I have ex US colleagues who know people working for him and it’s not pleasant. With his surveillance ability now, he’s not one to get on the wrong side of as he’d know all about you, and ?? We have family in the US and we used to buy all presents via AMZN, but when I found out about his business practices that stopped. I’d rather buy here now and post them just so I don’t have to deal with them. They sent me an email saying my Amazon Prime was revoked, yet I never ask for it or used it. I was using AMZN since 2000 roughly, and told them to stick the email I received.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        Cheers bro, evil company with too much power. Money is influence, particularly when you have that much.
        Brilliant business model. Price all your competitors out. Screw your employees. Screw the cities that you trade within. And, screw all your suppliers. Never make a profit, but reward investors with paper profits Surveill your customers, employees, suppliers – make lots, rinse and repeat.

  28. What’s with all the “price witheld” sales on RE.com?? I’m looking in Av. kind of middle class suburbs in Brisbane, yet everything that’s under the weekly sold page is saying price witheld.

    Prices too low?

    • Gav, i suggest you watch the actual JRE clip of the interview where you can see the full back and forth.

      not some dip$h1t commentator cutting and splicing various parts of the video together to build a straw man that he then makes fun of

  29. Don’t know if anyone knows Strathfield but driving past OTEN this morning there is a corner block on the roundaboutnthat is being bulldozed.

    But the signs were “for sale”. Not 1BR unit only $888 888,etc.

    I’ll keep an eye out as I often drive past it.

    • wasabinatorMEMBER

      Yeah I used to live on Morwick St many years ago, not far from Oten. I hope those places don’t sell. The endgame is if they need to reduce to 444,444 for locals to actually afford them. The way the govt just sits idle and watches these developments built for export which won’t be inhibited with social implications of that attached boggles the mind.

      • Failed Baby BoomerMEMBER

        Yup wasa, that should do it! $444,444 is a really bad number for chinese buyers. Sounds like daeth-death-death-death-death-death.

      • Yeah that’s it!

        So green! So set back from the footpath! Such lawns!

        Love how the pedestrian island is paved!

      • Haha! Thats the walkway through Burwood Park. Nothing like a few stock photos of the neighbourhood to spruce up the sales pitch of an entire block of units thay hasn’t even been built. Wonder whay happened there? Developer pulled the pin?

  30. Abbott in the SMH on the independents running in his seat:

    “These people just can’t help themselves. They are all negative. They don’t know what they’re for, but by God, they know what they’re against.”

    I assume he said it with a straight face.

    • Abbott takes aim at ‘negative, cashed-up’ independents

      lol. Only LNP members should be allowed to be cashed up in the Cayman Islands.

      They are all negative. They don’t know what they’re for, but by God, they know what they’re against.

      OMG! Abbott actually makes sense! Even Rutger Bregman said to Owen Jones, “the left wing knows what it is against but does not know what it is for”.

    • LMAO, whose truth? Matty’s?

      Edit: beautiful comedy, Abbott’s Gov was Centre-Right, it doesn’t get any funnier than that!

      Btw, 600 journos in the survey showing a bias to the far-left! How many political journos writing in the MSM media are there, or is he including the vast majority of them writing for Domain, Life Style, Entertainment etc? Better what out for all those far-left life style commie journos.

      Truly pathetic.

      • I just like seeing pushback against bleeding heart SJW leftards

        LOL. 15-20 years of most print media, a couple of dedicated channels on Foxtel, and majority time in Government not enough for you ?

        (Trick question. Of course, it’s never enough for the kinds of people who can brook neither compromise nor difference.)

        “Matty” seems to be have a standard case of Conservative Persecution Syndrome, which means he’s all about the feels, with little concern about the reals. That’s why, for example, even with the major Australian political parties the furthest right they’ve been in generations, he’s still worried the lefties are taking over. Or why despite thinking high immigration is a big problem, he loves the LDP, even though they’ve actually got a genuine open-borders immigration policy. Or why he likes the Australian Conservatives, despite the fundamental conflict in their principles (“equality before the law”) vs objectives (“rolling back same sex marriage”).

        But you don’t expect coherence from people whose worldview is built around knee jerk opposition to other people’s beliefs. To paraphrase Voltaire, if lefties did not exist, he would have to invent them.

      • ‘But you don’t expect coherence from people whose worldview is built around knee jerk opposition to other people’s beliefs.’
        This coming from someone who in lieu of argument insinuates that if someone is not a feminist then they are a wife beater. Feminism would cease to exist without othering ‘the mens’. But that’s the thing about beliefs, they are just beliefs, the world is chock a block full of belief sets and the feminist belief set is not special or sacrosanct. Of course a male feminist would use obviously loaded dishonest bad faith semantics and posit that forcing feminism to be academically honest is ‘knee jerk’. … cue trying to ‘lol’ it off …

      • This coming from someone who in lieu of argument insinuates that if someone is not a feminist then they are a wife beater.

        O.o

        Feminism would cease to exist without othering ‘the mens’.

        Yes, of course. No such thing as sexism. Never was.

      • ‘Yes, of course. No such thing as sexism. Never was’
        I’m talking about feminism smith stop deflecting. Sexism is just a feminist buzzword, you are going to have to phrase that statement again in plain English because the imperfections of the world aren’t inequalities oppressing women. There are plenty if ‘sexisms’ that feminism has zero intention of ever caring about. Pointing selectively at ‘sexism’ (whatever that means) doesn’t give feminists the right to engage in feminist aggression and lie with impunity and otherwise act in bad faith as they continue to do. The world will always be full of imperfections and feminists will always blame ‘the mens’ and strip women of moral agency. Feminism can’t hide behind women forever.

      • I’m talking about feminism smith stop deflecting.

        No, you’re giving us an example of a straw man fallacy.

      • ‘No, you’re giving us an example of a straw man fallacy.’

        No it isn’t a strawman you are lying to yourself and you are not being ‘rational and objective’ you are engaging in feminist subjectivism and irrationality and simply self declaring feminism to be morally triumphant and superior because feminism. Typical feminist morally involuted aggression.

    • They are creating a new regulator to oversee it all. What could possibly go wrong?

      There was an old construction guy who mentioned there used to be someone called a building clerk (?) whose sole role was to supervise ALL the construction and ensure everything was built to spec. Need to go back to the future. Someone paid to oversee it on day-to-day basis and recording all evidence that can be audited and used against the developers.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        In olden days the “clerk of works” was employed by the builder to ensure that the subbies delivered the quality and quantities of materials laid out in the plans and specifications .
        I have seen them make the concrete trucks wait until the steel fixers put in either more bars or the correct bars before allowing the pour .

        These guys were absolute sticklers for detail …….their type would be rare these days …
        ..get it cheap ….get it up ..get out of here ….is the modus operandi today ……..opal tower ( and I’m sure many more ) is what results .

    • The Poodle was on Insiders this morning. As soon as he said it, I thought any leverage the LNP have on Labor coming into this sitting week if parliament is gone. I reckon the punters care nore about their banks and their sh1tt behaviour han they do about some refos seeking medical attention.

  31. One of the most effective ways of clearing up this most serious of all semantic confusions is to point out that private debt differs from national debt in being external … A variant of the false analogy is the declaration that national debt puts an unfair burden on our children, who are thereby made to pay for our extravagances. Very few economists need to be reminded that if our children or grandchildren repay some of the national debt these payments will be made to our children or grandchildren and to nobody else. Taking them altogether they will no more be impoverished by making the repayments than they will be enriched by receiving them.

    Abba Lerner The Burden of the National Debt (1948)

    https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2019/02/10/understanding-government-debts-and-deficits/

      • Are you arguing that say the U.S. was worse off post WWII and have you ever seen its historical debt ratios, not to mention how the Clinton surplus rang in the next recession. Granted that throwing money up against the corporatist wall and gifts to Wall St. is not exactly an apples to apples comparison.

        Then again how familiar are you with Abba Lerner works.

      • Sectoral balances are fine: what it ignores is post WW2 debt financed things which grew the economies earning power eg. Interstate highway system. Neoliberal public debt financed tax cuts and wars in Iraq.
        Social democratic growth in public debt will never be a burden for future generations. Neoliberal growth in public debt may be a burden for future generations.

      • Sweeper its not controversial that the Birch anti taxers screwed the pooch wrt Vietnam inflation, which has kinda instigated the whole Fed approach with a hands off congress. But then again that link to AOC talking about “really bad guys” should assist in that little problem.

    • The burden thing isn’t actually black and white. Imagine 2 different scenarios:

      1. interest rate on government debt > GDP growth rate and the debt finances tax cuts for older cohort which boosts their consumption during their working life and then they sell their bonds to the younger generation to boost their consumption in retirement.

      or 2. interest rate on government debt < GDP growth rate and debt finances public infrastructure and full employment and bonds are bequeathed to younger cohort

      Scenario one is a burden as future generations are worse off than otherwise. In scenario two future generations are better off than otherwise.

      • As we know Sweeper … a lot of that mainstream economic theory is based on some mythical full employment and then applied to a completely different reality without full employment.

        How is your Kalecki.

      • Yes that is true. In the case where the economy is below full employment growth in public debt is not a burden for future generations even if it only finances consumption.

      • What are taxes really for again at the fed level ….

        PS. did you see the up tick in say 100 dollar bond holdings by the sundry in the U.S.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        You can’t change opinions by picking on people who (you think) don’t have your intellect Skip. It don’t work and you look like a bully. Talking in tongues, in an attempt to show your superior intellect, experience etc is also not necessary. Some of us look up your code and try to decipher it, give you a try. The rest just swipe right.

        Go on, have a go a me, bro

      • Like over at NC … do you have anything pertinent to the subject matter or are you going to confuse the issue again.

        Bro … sigh~~~

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        No, skip, you are just a person who doesn’t understand being civil. Bully, bully bully. Worked for you all your life. Going to keep calling you on it. No one is picking on my posts, just you

      • So the answer is no, check.

        Btw when you make claims its incumbent on you to back them up, just putting it out there is insufficient, no means to evaluate how you arrive at them. So where exactly do you see any bullying occurring in pointing out stuff without any personal flourishes, btw if you didn’t know you should have seen the dominate method of debate on this blog some years ago with mig, aj, lord dud, and a cornucopia of other ridged ideologues – the dog piles were a sight to see and if one was to invoke bulling should have it as a reference point.

        If you look up thread all I did was post information to which flawse responded and I pointed out a historical case – same goes for Sweeper. Now if you want to take me to task on this subject please do, statements of effect and anything you might have to back it up.

        Playing the victim, concern trolling, or confusion is not a substitute, especially deflection. I would also note that not every debate or conversation is an attempt to change opinions of those involved, sometimes that is highly improbable because people hold certain views as articles of faith e.g. irremovable stakes in the ground and nothing can move them. In this case its just to show others that might not have such conditions a chance to see options or other perspectives.

      • ChristopherJMEMBER

        You are right, man. I have nothing to add to subject matter…just wanted to call you out.
        Everyone can see what a straw man you are. Just here for the hunt, not to be part of a community, eg, you’ve never commented on my anecdotes over the years. No, you just want to show your intellectual superiority and pick on weaker people, those without a good argument. It’s your go to method. Where you ever find the time to have relationships outside of here, or even work, I got no idea.

        And when are the mods going to insist that your pay what the rest of us have for our 12 months of being able to say anything in this place. Thought the free period was 2 weeks. Specials

      • This is an economics and financial blog – not a social media man cave or ideological group think reinforcement platform.

        Btw your use of straw man is not supported as well as the use of the royal we …

        I wonder if your even aware of your actions considering your complaint.

      • Playing the victim, concern trolling, or confusion is not a substitute, especially deflection. I would also note that not every debate or conversation is an attempt to change opinions of those involved, sometimes that is highly improbable because people hold certain views as articles of faith e.g. irremovable stakes in the ground and nothing can move them. In this case its just to show others that might not have such conditions a chance to see options or other perspectives.

        I would note that…

        Late on a Sunday eve there are circa 545 comments. Skippy has 47 (or 8.6%) of the comments on the board.
        On the Weekend Links 2-3 February, 2019 of 490 comments Skippy had 51 (10.4%)
        On the Australia Day Long Weekend Links: 26-28 January 2019 of 681 comments Skippy had 65 (9.5%)
        On the Weekend Links 19-20 January, 2019 of 558 comments Skippy had 21 (3.8% – was he away that weekend?)
        On the Weekend Links 12-13 January 2019 of the 568 comments Skippy had 19 (3.3% – was he away that weekend?)
        On the Weekend Links 5-6 January 2019 of the 423 comments Skippy had 25 (5.9%)
        On the New Years Links, 1 January 2019 of the 252 comments Skippy had 28 (11.1%)
        On the Weekend Links 29-30 December 2018 of the 390 comments Skippy had 29 (7.4%)
        On the Weekend Reading 22-23 December 2018 of the 434 comments Skippy had 21 (4.8%)
        On the Weekend Reading: 15-16 December 2018 of the 501 comments Skippy had 18 (3.6%)

        Many readers rarely pay much attention to the Skippy posts because they are either

        1. Unintelligible bullshit; or
        2. Copious volumes of cut and paste, or even
        3. A form of comment stalking.

        The comment stalking refers to the situation – which a number of people have written to spambot about – where he will be the one to ensure he places a comment designed to troll, play the victim, or deflect as soon as other commenters materialise on the board – often seeking to re raise some issues which have been discussed or commented on in the past, and ensuring that he has the last comment – often when people trying figure they have more productive things to do with their time.

        As has been pointed out a number of times Skippy runs a line in having the mostest comments on many weekends and the only concern he has for others being enlightened is of them being enlightened by his views, tempered by a complete inability to fathom that others may have differing views. These are invariably strawmen, illogical, not referenced, and therefor in need of conversion – usually in the form of the gobbledygook and copious cut and paste referred to above, and invariably leading to the comment stalking.

        and

        This is an economics and financial blog – not a social media man cave or ideological group think reinforcement platform.

        Btw your use of straw man is not supported as well as the use of the royal we …

        I wonder if your even aware of your actions considering your complaint.

        It is a finance and economics blog to which Skippy makes no contribution, often befitting someone who has little other to do in whatever man cave they exist in, in an English often mystifying to those who work with the language, with a train of thought which could easily be the basis for a psychology PhD in abstruse reasoning, apart from reply to the comments others.

        There are others prima facie with similar psychological issues, but Skippy is a particularly overt example, and as good a reason as I can think of to limit non member comments to maybe 3 or 5 per post …….(which presumably will be the basis for a palsied riposte about free speech in some ill worded guise or another [with a few links or a slab of cut and paste, or some sanctimonious bullshit playing the victim, spreading confusion, deflecting, turning commenting on the MB blog into some form of competition, or blaming others).

        Good night all. Good night Skippy.

      • Yeah and your the one that went pop Gunna when I pointed out your Libertarian Marxist leanings and how it reflected on Bannons beautification, not to mention I thought your back ground was in Journalism. I mean pointing out your professed views and how it might relate to a person like bannon is just so wrong.

        I also would point out you have not attempted to engage the post by Lars, it was what we were talking about, until Chris starting talking about other unsupported stuff. Which I would point out you compound error with, absolutely nothing more than than conjecture on your part in a pathetic attempt to belittle. I can tell you that not eveyone shares your personal opinions, YS for one, associates in the PK school, LSE, MMT, and some Uni depts aside from economic or monetary study. That’s not even mentioning others opinions over my life time that have nothing to do with this subject matter, education, military, private sector work, broad range of personal contacts over rather extended geographical travel.

        So feel free to talk about something you have absolutely no knowlage about with such assured authority and journalistic flair.

        I repeat … do you or do you not have a position on the topic at hand and what can you bring to bare to support it, everything else is just a distraction, pursuing that agenda means either you don’t or you don’t want too. You must think I forget your past promotion of things like volunteerism et al or others stances years ago on this blog, not to mention others.

        You might also want to investigate why Chris its acting out after he popped into a conversation I was having with el_tel over at NC, who el-tel is, what the topic was about, where Chris popped in, how it reflected on the conversation, creating a scene out of whole cloth, and then sticking to his guns regardless of its inaccuracy.

        Heads up on the topic – vaccinations in links a few days ago, it might help you make an – informed view – rather than the spray and pray method. BTW I always thought information and facts spoke for themselves regardless of who tables it, so which is it in your book, the person tabling it or the information itself that offends and if the latter how does that change the information.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Thank you Skippy.

        A more definitive example of precisely what I was referring to I could not have wished for.

      • Again gunna got anything to say wrt the actual context above in response to the link, especially since you have still not shown how your assertions are applicable – you do realize it verges on slander.

        You or Chris have yet to provide specific proof of your claims or is some sort of mangled free speech hall pass where making stuff up to avoid an issue is all one has left to deploy. I would also point out the increase in emotive posture in lieu of a substantiated argument, broad generalizations without specifics is a mugs game. For any disagreement on things I thought you were above that sort of thing – seriously.

        I would also ask if you took the time to ascertain the facts about the NC episode and how that squares with reality, and Chris response, acting out on a false perspective. Less your last comment is just some quip fired off without taking the time to inform yourself, so you would know what your talking about rather than assuming a thing.

        Come on Gunna … Chris just popped up on the thread and then started banging on about personal feelings which had zero relevance to the topic being discussed, nor applicable to anything I said too flawse or sweeper. His name is not even mentioned. That’s not to mention how many times flawse has made direct attacks at people only to have some back slap him for it – sounds like a pretty big case of a double standard by any reasonable stretch of the mind.

        Is this a primary grade school ground or what … I provided a link that challenged mainstream economic thinking on an important cornerstone to how one considers what is on offer for policy formation and how that expands what can be done to rectify the damage done by decades of neoliberalism. At no time did I personally attack anyone, belittle them in anyway, or present them in a bad light. Contra to that Chris comes in and starts throwing dirt from off the playing field and makes a classic case of doing exactly what they are charging others with and then I’m the bad guy …. can’t make this stuff up.

        Not that I have passed this by a few people only to have them roll their eyes or anything.

      • OMG

        For the most part i now ignore Weekend links aka “the Empty Pouch Wastelands” and unlocked articles as much as possible..

        “…. you do realize it verges on slander….”

        Slander a nom de plume?

        LMAO

        Or did you really change your name by Deed Poll to Skippy?

        Was it a full moon this weekend?

        Nope just more of the same.

        Why is this freeloader tolerated by MB? Other non-members get fingered all the time for freeloading and commenting.

        Why is Skippy a protected specie?

        New Comment Rules

        1. Only members can comment.

        I am sure there are lots of non-members with interesting things to say but the reality is that much of the trolling and guff and bile comes from the non-members and people abusing the trial access. It is unfortunate that banning non-members from commenting will prevent some useful contributions but that is the price that must be paid to prevent the further destruction of what was once an excellent forum.

        Naked Capitalism adopted a brutal approach to moderation for similar reasons. I note that the Empty Pouch is more careful to control its bile at NC.

        Sadly many interesting members have been banned over the years (or left) after allowing themselves to be baited by destructive non-member trolls like the rabid rodent.

  32. Based on current rate on decline on the Corelogic daily indexes – https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/daily-indices – Melbourne is set to beat its largest peak-to-trough decline this coming Friday. https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/what-have-periods-decline-looked-over-recent-years-and-how-long-have-markets-taken-recover
    If this mark is eclipsed it will be interesting to see if there is any coverage given to this in the papers next weekend. I’m guessing not.

    • msm will focus on rising clearance rates but will forget to mention reason behind. It will be all about buyer confidence and not a mention of vendor capitulation.

      • Haha you know it. I’ve already seen Domain reporting as such this weekend. It’s all about grab a bargain. If you call 2015 prices bargains I suppose.

    • The beer will taste great on Friday if your projections are correct. Thanks. As an aside, I think it’s 2020 that will be the ball breaking year. Pressure is building on every front but January could be epic

      • @tonydd – I’ll be consuming some sort of beverage this weekend to celebrate if this happens too.
        A couple of other extrapolated dates for those interested.
        These are derived simply by taking the the current Corelogic daily index value and multiplying by the current quarertly rate of decline, then dividing by 90 to get a projected average daily rate of decline.
        I make the Sydney peak value to be approx 177.2 and the Melbourne peak value 157.3 (these might not be quite accurate so if someone has historical Corelogic data and can correct this I’d appreciate it). Also, does someone have the peak value for Perth?
        Melbourne set to hit double-digit percentage peak-to-trough loss (ie: 10%) at 141.57. At current rate of decline this would be hit on 20190304 (just over 3 weeks away). Interestingly this would be the day before the RBA meets and then announces their rates decision.
        A 15% peak-to-trough drop for Sydney at index value of 150.62. At current rate of decline this would be hit on 20190415.
        If both these marks are hit around those timelines you’d have to think there would be enormous pressure on the RBA, before the election is held (presumably in May based on most of the current analysis).
        One question I have relating to all those multi-IP ‘investors’ – where is the trigger point for them blowing up and needing to liquidate parts of their portfolio? Does there need to be a refinance event before a revaluation and capital (ie: LVR) topup is required? In this case people will just stay with their current lender(s) to avoid this, unless of course they have an IO loan expiry that would then trigger this?

      • The numbers I have are:

        Sydney peak is 177.15 on 10/09/2017
        Melbourne peak is 157.21 on 25/11/2017
        Brisbane peak is 109.09 on 24/05/2018
        Adelaide peak is 117.08 on 03/01/2019
        5 city peak is 147.14 on 05/11/2017

        The index changed base in 2016 so I haven’t worked Perth out. But I would guess 110 on 01/06/2014

      • Thanks Ryan.
        If that is the accurate figure for the Perth peak that puts it at just over 17.5% peak-to-trough as of current reading, and another 90 days at current rate of decline to hit the -20% mark. That would be approx May 10th, again smack bang in Federal election campaign territory (very close to the actual poll date you’d think).

  33. Dear me.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/09/carmageddon-for-tesla-model-3-us-deliveries-plunge-55-to-60-from-q4-laid-off-delivery-employees-tell-reuters/

    When will people understand that their role is simply to worship the oligarchical leaders that God has given us during this second gilded age. First Bezos and now Musk……..next they will be questioning the pre-eminence of Google to lead us to build their Elysium in orbit for them to retire to and hand down their tablets from on high.

  34. GunnamattaMEMBER

    a little bit of viewing……

    The Canadian equivalent of 4 Corners – a week or so old

    but you have to wonder how many scams just like this are being run past Australia.

    Ghost immigrants: Paying for Canadian citizenship – The Fifth Estate
    https://youtu.be/ERMtBEgk9ls

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      In Straya just buy a crap apartment …..no questions asked ….sweet as maaaaate !
      …ain’t that so uncle Harry ?

    • Australia has a myriad of ghost citizenship channels; the “significant investor” scheme that didn’t lead to much investment, only in second hand property (can’t find the link). Then there’s student visas that morph into citizenship or 457 visa workers. Why not jump on a plane with a tourist visa and when you’re here, claim asylum and presto, your on your way to being a citizen…never mind the poor bastards on Naru. Secure boarders my azz.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        my sentiments entirely.

        The only ‘crime’ of the people on Nauru is that they arent wealthy enough to fly into Australia, and havent benefited enough from the corruption in their homelands to be able to buy a SIV. And I have seen first hand that the majority of SIVs contribute nothing to the economic prosperity of future Australians – just enrich a few ticket clippers in the here and now.

  35. ChristopherJMEMBER

    marsup. have a lot of friends on the NC blog, as you would know from talking to S and D. Disappointing for your to say publicly that I am wasting my time contributing to blogs like this. Unpleasant to engage you when you are in this sort of mood, but then I don’t think you are a nice person at the core.

    When are you going to pay subs here?

      • Empty Pouch,

        You flatter yourself……as usual ….preening your peacock feathers is what you do best.

        I have no concerns about the peddling of tired lefty conspiracy theories. Have been hearing those since orientation week in first year.

        You are simply obxnoxious and toxic.

        That is why you should be banned and banished back to NC where they apparently like your handiwork.

    • “Disappointing for your to say publicly that I am wasting my time contributing to blogs like this.”

      Stop making things up.

      “but then I don’t think you are a nice person at the core.”

      How would you even know, observation is so remote and so limited, and considering the long term penchant for some around here for anti social behavior its laughable.

      Pay subs or are you referring to the freeloader trope, you’ll have to search for my response to that episode.

      Lastly I do all kinds of stuff for others and have always done so, helped people post GFC, helped people after the flood, help people around my community with my skills in the trades or just a helping hand, and you by dint of a few blog posts determine the state of things without any means to evaluate.

      You might want to go back to NC and reevaluate where you thought you were attacked and then did a knee jerk and then woulden’t let go of it. Not my problem and compounding error or foot chewing is not a good look.