Is it time to heed the Baltic Cry?

I gave up on the Baltic Dry many years ago when a shipping glut dislocated it from wider global economic activity. Is it time to revisit it? If so, it is not painting a pretty picture:

There are a few reasons to be wary of the crash:

  • China’s recent rolling import coal bans are piling up shipping outside its ports;
  • the Vale accident has hurt Brazilian shipments, but
  • it is also signalling a more fundamental slowdown in Chinese demand for bulk commodities.

So, yes, I think it is time to listen to the Baltic Cry. It fits my wider narrative of ongoing Chinese and global slowdowns and insufficient stimulus to date. Zero Hedge provides a nice chart that may signal something else that is running out of steam before long:

We shall see.

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