Links 11 February 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:






Ghost Immigrants: Paying for Canadian citizenship – The Fifth Estate…..what odds the same schemes operating in Australia and New Zealand?…


    • That is a nice story. It captures issues of identity, status, culture, ambition all in the context of the biggest bubble in human history. The human story of the bubble.

      I did a white monkey gig in China once. A long time ago. It wasn’t a performance gig but we were pretending to be people we weren’t. I never did it again.

  1. … The New Zealand Listener … latest Editorial …

    The KiwiBuild failure should galvanise urgent action on NZ’s housing disaster – EDITORIAL – The Listener

    When a nation’s flagship housing policy is such a spectacular failure that it makes the New York Times, the minister in charge cannot avoid the international embarrassment. …

    … concluding …

    … The recent Demographia International Report, which compares median house prices in seven wealthy countries plus Hong Kong, reports that in Australia housing has become more affordable over the past year as prices fell due to tightening credit. Yet, alarmingly, New Zealand housing has simply become more unaffordable since this Government took office. Property here is now further out of reach than in the US, Australia and the UK. This is beyond embarrassment. This is a national disaster.
    New Zealand Vowed 100,000 New Homes to Ease Crunch. So Far It Has Built 47. – The New York Times
    … Why is the New Zealand government repeating the mistakes of history ? … essential viewing …

    Inquiry. The Great British Housing Disaster (Adam Curtis, 1984) BBC – YouTube

    … Just ALLOW affordable new housing to be built … with land supply and proper debt financing of infrastructure … and spare us the infantile bureaucratic rubbish …

  2. China’s small businesses forced to cut back on staff just to survive as economic mood sours amid trade war … South China Morning Post

    • President Xi Jinping warned in January about a need to pay particular attention to the risks to social stability during the current economic slowdown

    • China’s mood had changed very quickly from a rapid expansion of consumer spending last year to a cautious ‘consumption downgrade’

  3. Christopher Pyne 7 hours ago:

    says politics is trapped in a self-obsessed and panic-prone spiral that is damaging Parliament’s ability to work for the good of voters.

    lol. The voters want immigration cut hard because it would be good for us. Besides, AUS now has 25 million people – 17 years early! Time for a 17 year freeze on immigration.

    Mr Crispin Hull said that political parties should be adequately funded by the AEC. Absolutely. Stop being dependent on funding from Harvey Norman.

    • All political donations should go into one single fund administer by the AEC and allocated equally to each candidate. All donation declared, none of this $5000 limit crap.
      If people believe in open democracy they’ll donate, if they don’t they won’t.

  4. Gold Cost update: Well there is not much happening up here-directly.
    Indirectly, the news is that the new owner of the Jewell has been prevented from returning to Australia.
    Mr Huang has had his passport cancelled. (ASIO said he is not fit)
    So no one really knows what is happening with the biggest of building disasters, under construction, in Straya right now.
    Many builders are going broke up here, leaving the suppliers and subbies to pick up the tab, but I feel sure the builder for the Jewel is wise to that, and is not spending any money on that project which first hasn’t cleared into their bank accounts. Very uncertain situation
    Construction is now about 80% complete, and completion in say 2021.
    Say 3-5 years late. This delay will probably push costs to $1.5 billion, ie 40% over.
    But the Jewel was to be different: fast tracked by the state govt for the Comm games,
    back in 2012 as an “investment-led development”—not dependent on pre-sales.
    Some say the value of the jewel in this climate is about $400mill.
    So someone is gunna be out of pocked by about, a bill, plus.
    Good thing it is Chinese money not ours.
    The real news for here is what is happening in Townsville:

    Townsvill Update: Pal of Chooks Panics:
    When asked on TV if the Dam’s spillway gates should have been opened earlier to mitigate flooding, Premier of QLD, Palaszczuk said, questions should be directed to the council.
    “They own that Dam, they are the asset owner of that Dam,” she said.
    But: the Ross River Dam is run by Sun Water
    ahem, the State Government are in CONTROL of that dam.

    Now it looks to me as though Pal of Chooks would not have been so enthusiastic to sink the boot into the Townsville council, if all was calm and serene with her back office.
    Looks to me as though someone is giving her a bit of a tickle.
    How about if Big Clive’s refinery had leaked.
    Man; the media and his many enemies would have been all over him;
    like a swam of Ross river sandflies,
    But recent upgade work at the refinery looks good.
    Unlike the rest of the joint.

    So now all you punters with flood insurance, you need to get on top of these legal definitions >
    riverine flow, overland flow, back flow, afflux, rain water and storm water.
    Cos most likely any claim you happen to lodge down the track will be vetted by a forensic hydrologist.
    And the forensic hydrologist will wait until it is legally certain :
    what and who caused the water damage.
    Ie, in this case, did the operators of the Ross river dam affect the effect of the flood.
    WW of course they did, the long drawn out answer is gunna be very interesting.
    Big Clive will be PM before this is resolved.

    • A guy that I work with has just found out the body corp didn’t have flood cover, so he in a world of hurt right now !

      Regarding GC property, I see the corelogic daily index numbers show Bris/GC number falling, but the monthly numbers for Bris are broken out and Bris number is holding up. Does this mean GC is falling hard and dragging the daily number down ??

    • Same story as Brisbane 2011. They delayed too long before opening up the dams because they know they have allowed people to build on the 100 year flood plains. Somerset Dam is still damaged……work on it won’t start on it until 2021, so if we have a drought around Brisbane water supply will be in a bind. River catchments joining up now near Burketown

    • AV Jennings has blamed political uncertainty, “sensationalist” media coverage of the housing outlook and a “relatively sudden” slowdown in bank lending for a 90%plunge in profits.

      And in other news apartment approvals are down 40% somewhere???

    • Always saw this coming when real life actual inflation has been running at 5-7%, official data has been cooked and wages suppressed, the mathematics was always going to conflict at some stage. Bring it on, as long as the masses can still buy notional pitchforks they might use them one day.