Links 1 February 2019

Global Macro/Markets

Americas

Europe/Middle East

Asia/Sub-continent

Australia/New Zealand

Other

Comments

  1. New Zealand Vowed 100,000 New Homes to Ease Crunch. So Far It Has Built 47. – Charlotte Graham – McLay – The New York Times

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/31/world/asia/new-zealand-housing-prices.html
    .
    .
    Lack of land, infrastructure blamed for rising Tauranga house prices | Newshub
    … video …

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/01/lack-of-land-infrastructure-blamed-for-rising-tauranga-house-prices.html
    .
    .
    Demographia In The News

    https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=demographia&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiDkbHYj5jgAhUHTn0KHa_vCtAQ_AUIDigB&biw=946&bih=416

  2. I’m now of the opinion that, just as most Australians did not believe a fall of 10% in house prices was possible prior to a year ago, they won’t believe a 30-40% fall is possible until it’s a compleye reality.

    This is a good thing.

    It will learn many a lesson that will be impossible to unlearn.

  3. “The easiest way to ensure nobody gets hurt is to lend nobody any money. But if nobody gets lent any money then everybody gets hurt. So I think we have to be sensible,” Mr Morrison said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-warns-against-rash-response-to-banking-royal-commission-20190130-p50uo1.html

    Or what he means to say: ‘but if EVERYBODY gets lent money then I don’t get hurt, banking lobbyists don’t get hurt, banking execs don’t get hurt, people who brashly bought over priced houses don’t get hurt, Liberal voters sitting on massive unnearned capital gains don’t get hurt, party donors get hurt…and perhaps my prime ministerial pension won’t get hurt”.

    Hey Scott, here’s a wacky idea. How about we just try having some semblance of lending standards, enforced by an accountable regulator? Too crazy, right?

    • What he failed to clarify in that imbecilic statement was ‘ hurt by whom?”. I’d guess that implicitly he means ‘hurt by the financial system” and that, of course, confirms that they have been hurting Australians.

      • Ooooh … Deterministic Mathematical Models mixed with a bit of GT and you have mainstream economics WW …. watch out for the first ex ante axiom …. been known to swallow whole swaths of humanity regardless of outcomes for protracted periods ….

    • Brett,

      Regulated bank lending would be an improvement but let’s acknowledge that is exactly what we had for a few decades before the bank lobbyists managed to convince people that full privatisation would be sweet.

      The private bank apologists are very good at warning of the end of times if there is any interference in the privatisation of the power over public money.

      Scott Morrison is simply saying that “…. only a Money Crank would interfere with the glories of private bank control of the public monetary system….”.

      We hear that mantra around here all the time.

      • “The private bank apologists are very good at warning of the end of times if there is any interference in the privatisation of the power over public money.”

        Actually a known quantity went on a economic pogrom of which its opines enabled not only banking, but, C-corps to engage in a slash and burn methodology, in extracting profits because rational agent models …

        Hence talking about banks before more fundamental economic fallacies is bad methodology at onset or worse misdirection with intent.

      • Private Bank Apologists,

        It’s like tapping on a tin of whiskers.

        Deflecting attention away from the role of banks with a heavy dose of #WhatAboutThis

      • Why is the RBA being let off as blameless in all this. RBA sets IR’s!!!! That is, the RBA sets the demand for money. If there wasn’t the demand for money there would be no need for foreign money that Banks use to çreate ‘money in our economy. In addition, at the price at which demand is impinged, the saving rate soars.
        There are a few other things need correcting at the same time as we have discussed.
        NOTE: I believe all Bank execs should be given the HDQ treatment. I guess their defence at the show trial would be “We are just doing our job in he conditions that were created for us” Sort of Nuremberg defence!

      • pfh
        I was referring to the whole RC and all the commentary surrounding it by the all so knowledgeable! Voices in the wilderness don’t count 🙂

      • Dear Goat …. the RBA took its cues from the bright minds in the U.S. per the dominate economic propaganda spewed by the free market ideologues and a cornucopia of ideological think tanks w/ a side of industry lobbyist groups. I mean I was giving that neoclassical Glenn a serve back in the day here on MB ….

        Banks along with other C-corp enterprises are just a reflection of what neoliberalism has wrought since the mid 70s, tho it was seeking dominance post WWII, offsetting ideological ground lost post great depression.

  4. Divide et impera

    Domain is PUKING land.

    I have been watching North, North Eastern Victoria for land / farm for almost 5 years. Small acreage in searches over 100 acres and between 10 and 100 as preset searches.

    For years they would enter the market sporadically – no one wanted to “sell the farm”, even if it was a hobby. More often than not it was someone dying on the land. Then things started to really ramp up towards the end of last year. Over the holidays – literally nothing.

    This week – Domain has just PUKED – absolutely PUKED all over itself vast amounts of land and farms. Its an absolute tidal wave.

    Above all in the region to the north of Melbourne in a wedge heading out towards Gisborne Mt Macedon direction and back towards the east there have been maybe 10-15 land lots released of upto 50 hectares asking for above $5 Million.

    Now whats REALLY interesting is these are all CLEARLY being put on the market as development sites – but almost every single one I have looked at has been not allowed to be developed.

    These places have without any doubt been bought with the view to CHANGE the zoning laws to develop and since this has not happened – they are now getting desperate.

    Victoria has an overlay of a minimum of 50 hectares in order to be allowed to build a house in these zones.

    It is absolutely on like Donkey Kong.

    Its astonishing to see people asking $5M $8M $10 and $15M for a small farmlet in totally non-viable land with the expectation that you can “develop” it STCA – can I have my $15 Million please !!!!

    Corruption writ large.

      • In Europe,
        Man o man do they have their hands full over there.
        and for those who think Germany wont rise to ascendancy again,
        under a new hard right,
        they need to go over there
        and have a close look around.

      • @WW

        I have a good mate of mine working in Austria for a while… and yeah… his eyes on that ground are corroborating your notes. He said that atmosphere is turning a darker shade – definite departure from when he moved over there 10+ years ago.

      • Ino
        Spent some days on Lake Constance, Zeppelin have a airship factory there
        they had some videos of the early days of Zeppelin, when after about prototype no 3 speared in and burnt and the company looked like failing.
        the whole nation of Germany chipped in, raised a mountain of money, and allowed the company to continue development. ie Airships to drop bombs on London.
        Many still say that the USA intentionally withheld the supply ohe USA helium, so as they could advance their airship technology.
        the last major zeppelin was handed over to the yanks as the “Los Angeles”, as a war prize.
        There is a massive not so undercurrent there who wish to see Germany as the re emergent pre-eminent state of Europe.

      • Divide et impera

        I’ve been watching Germany quite closely. The far right parties are less than an INCH from taking control. What I am seeing in regional areas, small towns etc outside the major capitals is full blown ultra-far right wing anti-immigration revivalism.

        The most extraordinary thing about this is that German savings are in a very precarious position – many people were relying on their savings for retirement – and now are not garnering interest and returns and so are looking to risky investments and things are looking grim.

        An economic down turn in Germany is going to see absolute carnage for the migrant populations – make ZERO mistake about this – will absolutely happen.

        And when Germany – the leading light on this issue folds – (as France as already left the party) – then all the remaining countries will re-join Poland.

        It is totally mind blowing that the progressive left wing has foisted the “migrant” issue onto Europeans – AGAIN – as if history has not shown us since Ancient Rome how mass migration, foreigners, are treated. There are not merely one or two instances such as the Jews to look back on – but literally HUNDREDS – and every time the economy goes south, the hatchets come out.

        The responsibility for this lies 100% at the feet of the elite progressive left. No ifs, no buts, no maybes.

        .

    • You seem to be getting excited about supply being choked through restrictive zoning.

      Yes it means this particular pieces of acreage become relatively cheaper. But it also means that every dwelling in Victoria becomes relatively more expensive.

      Is that something to celebrate?

      • Divide et impera

        Yes – land inundating the market means things will get more expensive – well reasoned there Peachy – I can hear the dichotomies resonating around that empty echo chamber as the cognitive dissonance ricochets from wall to wall.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I have faith that the government will be successfully lobbied to change the zoning laws in these areas as it needs to be done to help these investors.

    • Got any links to these examples? I’ve been looking North East Victoria, so just want to see if there is a flood of properties in the same areas I’ve been looking…

  5. This is a crazy kind of article – not a theory I buy, a bit like visiting aliens teaching us stuff and recharging spaceships from Egyptian Pyramids, but interesting all the same…

    ‘Little Ice Age’ which froze the River Thames caused by Americas genocide, study finds (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2019/01/31/little-ice-age-cased-thames-freeze-caused-americas-genocide/)

    The “Little Ice Age” of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries was triggered by the genocide of indigenous people in the Americas by European settlers, new research shows.

    Scientists have long wondered what caused the drop in temperatures so severe it sometimes caused the River Thames to freeze over.

    Now, new analysis by University College London (UCL) argues that so many people were slaughtered or died of disease that the amount of agricultural land dramatically reduced, in turn sucking carbon dioxide (CO²) from the atmosphere.

    Known as the “Great Dying”, the upheavals following the first contact with Europeans in 1492 is thought to have slashed the population of 60 million living across the Americas down to five or six million within just 100 years.

    Published in Quaternary Science Reviews, the study found that much of the land previously cultivated by indigenous civilisations would have fallen into disuse, becoming swallowed up by forest and grassland.

    It estimates that an area of 56 million hectares, roughly the size of modern-day France, would have been rewilded in this way.

    The scale of the change is believed to have drawn an amount of CO² from the atmosphere equivalent to two years’ fossil fuel emissions at the present rate.

    Professor Mark Maslin, from UCL’s school of Geography, said: “There is a marked cooling around that time which is called the Little Ice Age, and what’s interesting is that we can see natural processes giving a bit of cooling, but to actually get the full cooling – double the natural processes – you have to have this genocide-generated drop in CO².”

    The research team examined historical population data, using it to model the reduction of land devoted to agriculture.

    They combined this with evidence of a cold period found in ice core records from Antarctica which contained trapped air bubbles.

    This was supported by records of charcoal and pollen deposits in the Americas.

    Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at Reading University, said: “Scientists understand that the so-called Little Ice Age was caused by several factors – a drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, a series of large volcanic eruptions, changes in land use and a temporary decline in solar activity.

    “This new study demonstrates that the drop in CO² is itself partly due the settlement of the Americas and resulting collapse of the indigenous population, allowing regrowth of natural vegetation. “It demonstrates that human activities affected the climate well before the industrial revolution began.”

  6. wasnt it the telegraph which paid out a HUGE sum to
    Melania Trump, for fake news.
    Times are very hard for the MSM over that way.
    anything to stir up some interest and deflect the public from the real events
    ie, that the joint is going under,

    • Yeah – well – as the meme goes – those churnalists better learn to code.

      Oh and welcome back WW – missed your eyes-on-the-ground posts 😀

      Heeyyyy… might I suggest a cameo on Martin North’s channel – with a report from the coal face?

      • interested party

        With american steel as well. New EO for US gov depts to use american made before others.
        Clip below is oval office signing with comments from industry reps and workers…..great stuff. We should be doing the same here.
        https://youtu.be/QHkxi_xrsro

        They have re-opened iron ore mines in the US…….here’s to looking at you BHP. How much steel ( aust IO ) entered USA via china?

        After watching that clip, I am starting to understand where our national pride has gone. Australia is a shadow of it’s former self. Where is our Trump? Why can’t we do the same as the video shows?

      • We’ve got Clive!!!
        Note that he is an ignorant p..ck but probably less ignorant than all the rest of the majors. Are we great or what?????

  7. that Melbourne Uni Press civil war amongst the luvvies is hilarious. I hope they release the emails.

      • What a sh*tfully written article. It’s almost one of those “15 ways to save, you won’t believe number 8″ click-baits!

        It’s as if Waleed just decided to clean up his inbox and he just got around to read the memo about ” Trickle-down economics, the conventional wisdom of merely a few years ago, is under historic assault.” Well… no sh*t Sherlock! Welcome to 2008 … keep going – you’ve got another 11 years worth of messages to read!

      • I admit to being of a mind that the SMH is a purveyor of ignorance and Ali is a spoiled city brat….However that is pretty spot on as far as it goes – which isn’t far. Ali is not exactly the sharpest knife in the economics draw.

        The Liberal party has suffered from John Howardism…he give everyone everything they want while piling up foreign debt – which is out of the attention field of all economic commenters. Libs have been just following the formula ever since without a single thought as to the long term results.
        Of course Labor have their own slogans that are equally meainingless stupid drivel but that’s not the point at the moment.

  8. Mark Latham: Gladys Berejiklian’s worst nightmare
    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/mark-latham-gladys-berejiklians-worst-nightmare-20190131-h1aoy6
    [Mark Latham could finally get a Labor government elected.

    Labor’s favoured son handed the 2004 federal election to John Howard by pushing his naive party into the eager arms of the greens. Now, Latham hopes to decide the NSW election by sanitising the atavistic tendencies of his new party, One [email protected]

    “We’re not allocating preferences to anyone,” Latham said at a One [email protected] campaign launch this week in Goulburn, where Liberal MP, minister and almost-Packer mother-in-law Pru Goward is walking. “My feedback is that Labor should be the firm favourite to win the election.”

    Promoted by Latham’s wealthy, elite-hating media mates – Mad Mark and 2GB’s Alan Jones’ co-curriculum activities include a cookbook – One [email protected] and independents could break NSW’s brittle politics.

    The government rules by five seats. A statewide poll this week put One [email protected]’s support at 6 per cent, enough to get Latham elected to the upper house, and put a nasty dent in Coalition support, which is running even with Labor.

    Latham coos about “Australian values”. Education, urban planning and transport are his touchstones.

    Asked about immigration, Latham played up “white flight” in Sydney’s western suburbs from immigration-driven congestion. There was no explicit Muslim baiting. The issue is electoral gold for Latham, and so potent that Berejiklian is ignoring business pleas for more labour and retreating towards the One [email protected] position.

    Latham’s candidates seem dangerously sane.

    Demonstrating that a few Labor Party lessons stuck, Latham picked up Orchard and a couple of other disgruntled Liberals to run One [email protected]’s local campaign.

    The weirdest thing Orchard said – apart from declaring he didn’t want to be a well-paid government minister – was to threaten what sounded like a witch burning outside Berejiklian’s office.

    “If we need to descend on Parliament with torches and pitchforks, we’ll do it,” he told supporters at the Tattersalls Hotel on Wednesday.

    The pub is on Goulburn’s main thoroughfare, which used to be the road from Sydney to Canberra. Latham left Canberra 14 years ago, and wants to return in triumph to Sydney, where he sees a chance of holding the balance of power in the upper house and lording it over his enemies, whom he is adroit at recruiting.

    But the more candidates labouring for Latham, the easier it will be for him to fill a 4.55 per cent quota needed for an upper house seat.]