Thank goodness, via the AFR:
Credit Suisse energy analyst Saul Kavonic said that despite the crowd of proposals, none may get a green light this year.
“I remain sceptical of an LNG import terminal achieving FID [final investment decision] this year due to poor appetite by industrial buyers, social licence challenges, and the risk posed by a potential new government and pipeline reform to some terminal business cases,” Mr Kavonic said.
…An ALP government is expected to toughen up gas policy, and observers point to the potential influence of the Australian Workers Union, where national secretary Daniel Walton has spoken out against imports in the belief they would lock in LNG import-equivalent prices for domestic gas.
He is absolutely correct. LNG imports will only add an import cartel to export cartel and actually lift prices because by definition we cannot import gas for less than the Asian price plus a margin.
Domestic reservation is a much better solution. If we lower the ADGSM target price to $5-6Gj, the cartel will simply have to deliver enough gas to hit it. That gas will be locally produced and to the extent that it never gets exported will lifted Asian prices at the margin instead of our own.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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