Population ponzi destroys pandemic defence

It’s the economic model that keeps on giving, via Domain:

Concentration of our populations in major cities and increased international air travel are creating conditions ripe for pandemics to spread faster and infect more people, according to new research from the University of Sydney.

…“You have airports getting a lot more traffic – in Adelaide, the Gold Coast, places that weren’t historically connected to the international air network,” lead researcher Dr Cameron Zachreson said.

Dr Zachreson believes Australia needs to increase hospitals’ capacity until they are routinely operating at under 85 per cent full capability, as proposed by the Australian Medical Association, to give health services the ability to cope with pandemic emergencies.

Good one Dr Zach. As Infrastructure Australia has modeled, under every single build-out scenario for hospitals access falls materially:

More sick, more dead. Go ponzi.


David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. This.

    Back in the 90s cities like Adelaide and the Gold Coast were at least two or three flights from the petri-dish of southern China. Now these places have multiple non-stop flights from cities in southern China every week. In the 90s it would have been Guangzhou – Hong Kong – Sydney/Melbourne – Adelaide, now it’s straight in.

    I’ve made this point with infectious diseases specialists here in Australia. Add to that the fact that the Chinese won’t announce to the world any medical problems until there’s people dying outside of China. In fact they won’t announce anything – it will take the WHO and other authorities to try to piece together just where the pathogen came from and who/where was the index patient (“patient zero”) while the Chinese authorities will deny everything and prevent access until some brave whistle-blowing doctor will announce the truth that hundreds have already died in China (just like SARS). For his troubles he’ll get disappeared (just like SARS)

    The next SARS will probably make its arrival to humanity known in some hospital in Australia, by which time thousands will have been exposed to it.

    Be ready.

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      Maybe we need a 3 or 4 week quarantine period for people coming in to stay on visas? we do it for dogs and cats!!

      • It depends what the incubation period is. The longer the incubation period the more widespread the pathogen can spread without anybody knowing even patient zero.

    • True.
      Also there is quite a nasty flu in Hong Kong & Japan at the moment, quite a few deaths incl children & apparently healthy people, not just oldies.

  2. Measles outbreaks already happening. A big risk because the immunization schedule does not inoculate infants until they are 12 months old, but many infants are in day care from 6 months onwards due to financial pressures in our society.

    Measles can be very serious for infants, leading to brain damage or death in some cases.

    Nearly all the recent cases involved international travel.

    Spend 2 minutes scanning the background for the cases and you quickly get the picture:


  3. GunnamattaMEMBER

    I have an even more depressing observation which has been related to me not long ago by a health policy professional from Canberra. This is not intended to be racially charged but is primarily an observation about the public health policies of Australia and its major sources of new immigrants and visitors.

    Australia has had a long policy of trying to prevent major diseases from coming to Australia – hence the quarantine arrangements which still exist.

    The nations which currently provide the bulk of our immigrants (China and India) and a very large component of our visitors do not attempt to quarantine anything, which is quite logical in their situation – they are both major population bases with primarily land borders, and on the Eurasian continent in which birds in particular can carry viruses a long long way. More importantly they are both societies in which it is quite common for people to be living in very close proximity to animals – particularly pigs, monkeys, chickens (birds), rats and animals which it is known that human affecting pathogens and viruses can exist in alongside affecting humans, or exist within for long periods without affecting humans and mutate within.

    For this reason the primary public health focus for many disease controls in those nations (and it is worth noting that there has been a far greater effort in China than in India for many) is on increasing community resistance to the disease or virus.

    This is not to say one approach is right and the other wrong – they are both right for the societies involved, but that the effect of taking large migrant and visitor numbers can, in the circumstances of a pandemic, mean that where Australia will attempt to start scanning passengers in planes and getting footwear dunked in disinfectant and whatnot, whereas health officials in those nations will have a primary focus on business as usual and a far greater tolerance for allowing movement (including to Australia) and that this can mean that viruses and infections which Australia is responding to may already be dormant or undetected within Australia. As has happened, in one instance about 4 years ago which is still being studied, an individual who passed into Australia (and two sets of passport control/customs) presented at a community medical centre in the burbs of Sydney within days of arriving resulted in others at the medical centre at the same time becoming infected (it was air/droplet borne).

    That isnt to say that we ban visitors or migrants, when a pandemic (particularly of the evolving H1 influenza types) but that there may be scope for a little more effective forward alertness and harmonisation.

  4. Concentration of our populations in major cities and increased international air travel are creating conditions ripe for pandemics to spread faster and infect more people,
    Sounds like a solution rather than a problem.
    Can you imagine Sydney with a significant SAR’s issue, did anyone say : half priced housing
    Or how was that Monty Python put it….Always look on the bright side of death….just before you draw your terminal breath.

    • “Always look on the bright side”
      Yup! I don’t know what everyone is on about.. Importing distributing and selling all those medicines and disinfectants. Funeral parlours booming. It would be great for GDP!!!

  5. Meh…seen this playbook before “much worse than thought” “modelling has shown” “more research necessary!” and this…
    “Dr Zachreson believes Australia needs to increase hospitals’ capacity…as proposed by the Australian Medical Association”

  6. Got chatting to a doctor the other week who works at Footscray hospital. He told me it is the tropical infectious disease capital/research and place to be for doctors in the Southern Hemisphere…
    Go Ponzi.

  7. The bio security risk we have in migrant intake is extreme. As well as the lack of checks & controls on disability & mental health of the migrant intake as a wider social cost burden & public safety risk.
    If 1,000 PR, TR & Tourist Visa migrants were selected at random and fully checked – the anecdotal evidence is that many would fail the medical test their foreign panel doctor agent provided pass results for.
    Maybe (sample full Medical health check testing( of 1 in every 100 migrants coming through arrivals is the only way to restore some integrity in the health check system.

    The scale of the issue:
    🔹PR/Citizen Grants last decade of 1.9 million with over 90% third world & 76% totally unskilled.
    🔹Temporary Residents (TR) 2.4 million onshore 90% third world and unskilled.
    🔹Tourist Visitors 8.8 million yearly stays – dominated by Chinese & Indian repeat stay multiple ‘non tourist activity when here. 5% or 440,000 working illegally (ABF Parliamentary submission on migrant guestworker taskforce)

    So 4.3 million permanent & very long stay migrants & 8.8 mllion so called ‘tourist visitors’ of which the vast majority are from third world countries.
    Mostly poor, many entering on fraudulent visa pretexts and from a low socio economic background in countries that have very high disease rates, chronic illness, infection and disability.

    Checks to enter Australia are minimal.
    On tourist visitors only some are subject to cursory tests are done in a 6 month or more stay.
    Very rudimentary test are done for TR visa.
    And only minimal tests on a PR.
    Usually by a foreign panel / doctor agent with widespread evidence of health check fraud as well as legal omission in testing for a range of serious diseases, illnesses & disabilities.

    The media and other reports plus various parliamentary and health studies all indicate a foreign run criminal migrant trafficking industry that includes extensive health check fraud – with bribes paid, fake ID, substitutes and fraudulent results as part of the ‘packaging’ by the foreign criminal syndicates in exploiting Australia’s visa system & borders.

    The migrant disease, illness or disability is often only detected later in Australia when they present to an Australian hospital (for free / never to be paid for emergency treatment) or a medical clinic, or their systemic use of a fake or borrowed Medicare card.
    (Blood test or other results don’t match etc) but most do succeed in their Medicare treatment fraud or acquiring taxpayer funded PBS drugs to sell back in their country of origin, it’s an industry.

    Couple of examples:
    “Indians have said that they have paid Rs 50,000 for unreal airfare along with medical checks with an unaccredited clinic. This excludes the other fees that they have been charged”.

    And China & elsewhere, health check fraud & “don’t understand” the process & failure to do the proper check by the Chinese panel doctor is routine.

    A related issue is the fraud around the disabled and mentally disturbed – virtually no checks and heavily frauded as many of our migrants come from highly inbred ethnic groups (Indians, Arabs, Muslims in general) with extreme rates of congenital defects.
    These people being highly active and motivated in visa fraud to enter a first world country like Australia to exploit the welfare, NDS and Medicare as our social cost & burden.

    Parliamentary submissions on no checks / disabled & mentally unfit – fraud & no real testing.
    Excerpt: Mr Robert McRae, a solicitor and President of Queensland Advocacy Inc told the Committee:
    “If you are sitting in China and you want to know what this health requirement is, there is nothing there that helps you decide what it is apart from perhaps if you have tuberculosis or a number of other conditions that are specified there. There is no reference to disability, for example Down syndrome, so you could read that and all other forms similar to that through and there is no reference to anything other than obesity in one case, tuberculosis and HIV. That is about it. I have a form here issued by the Australian embassy in China. Again there is nothing much that helps people. I think it is a fraud.”

  8. While we can muse on the general stupidity of people who don’t get immunised, we can also spare a thought for the specific stupidity of people who visit third world countries- with babies- who don’t get immunised.

  9. There’s an Ebola outbreak going on in the Congo at the moment that commenced in mid-2018 and is now reported as being the second worst ever. Unlike others, it’s reached a major city, hundreds of people are dead and there’s every chance that it could spread internationally. If it makes it out of Africa into the giant cities of Asia, it would be Very Bad Indeed.

    It’s quite bizarre that it doesn’t seem to have made the news in Australia at all. I’ve not seen it reported anywhere.


      • They’re currently at about 6 new cases per day and climbing with a 60% fatality rate which is about standard for Ebola… 18-Jan 667 cases, 410 dead. 25 Jan 713 cases 439 dead.

        Medical staff in neighbouring countries are being vaccinated in anticipation that it will spread across borders. It’ll get a lot worse before it gets better, and all it takes is one infected person to get on an aircraft and head to Bangkok or New Delhi…

        I’m not normally a tinfoil hat guy, but the total absence of reporting in Australia on this outbreak, the second largest ever, makes me wonder if the news is being suppressed to avoid scaring the punters.

    • Some news on it.
      An African with Ebola is unlikely to survive the duration of travel to Australia, but if it got into the Australian fruit Bat population (like Hendra with flying foxes) then it could outbreak.

      Zika along with dengue (common epidemic in many migrants / malaria & the other mosquito born dussesss are far more likely in Australia.

      Or just the full & new Hep range of disease & TB – the migrant intake esp Asian & Indian untested tourist visitors & widely frauded health checks.
      And the new Asian untreatable STD diseases introduced by the tens of thousands of Asians trafficked in on student & tourist visas for vice work.

      Or NDM-1 an Indian Superbug that’s deadly to the unprotected western world – a bug that over one third of Indians carry – and yep – no testing at all despite that being a simple low cost test.

      A new brand new Indian export – a superbug created by the disease levels, lack of hygiene & corrupted Indian pharmaceutical industry. Up to one third of the Indians in New Delhi carry the super big in their gut and can spread infection. And given their cultural and hygiene traits – the Indian is a very high transmitter of infection and disease.

      We have over half a million Indian born Indians in Australia, plus another 1.8 to 2.2 million ‘visiting’.
      Many working illegally.
      Many are in food preparation, food production wholesale & retail, touching & handling the products.
      Or cash & cards (Caltex / 711).
      The Indians in Australia are a perfect vector for mass infection of Australians of this new Indian originated superbug.

      • Mike…not sure where you got your views about Ebola lethality and lifecycle, but from https://courses.lumenlearning.com/microbiology/chapter/the-viral-life-cycle/

        On September 24, 2014, Thomas Eric Duncan arrived at the Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas complaining of a fever, headache, vomiting, and diarrhea—symptoms commonly observed in patients with the cold or the flu. After examination, an emergency department doctor diagnosed him with sinusitis, prescribed some antibiotics, and sent him home. Two days later, Duncan returned to the hospital by ambulance. His condition had deteriorated and additional blood tests confirmed that he has been infected with the Ebola virus.

        Further investigations revealed that Duncan had just returned from Liberia, one of the countries in the midst of a severe Ebola epidemic. On September 15, nine days before he showed up at the hospital in Dallas, Duncan had helped transport an Ebola-stricken neighbor to a hospital in Liberia. The hospital continued to treat Duncan, but he died several days after being admitted.

        The timeline of the Duncan case is indicative of the life cycle of the Ebola virus. The incubation time for Ebola ranges from 2 days to 21 days. Nine days passed between Duncan’s exposure to the virus infection and the appearance of his symptoms.

        With an incubation period of 2-21 days, there is every chance that someone could travel internationally while infected, and spend a considerable period in the destination country infecting others before being diagnosed.

      • Mike,

        Your posts are the most entertaining thing on mb for me. The vitriol that spews out of your mouth is palpable. I don’t think everything you say us truthful but you sure don’t like those inbred , third world, vector carrying disease pits that are spreading across Australia. I’m glad I live in country Victoria where I’m somewhat shielded from contact with so many third world vectors, nothing but sunshine , organic veggies and friendly next door neighbours who actually talk to you.