The Aussie economy is quietly falling apart

You’d have to be as blind as the RBA to miss the signals. GDP is made up of six components and they are not going well on balance:

  • government consumption is strong and likely to stay that way;
  • government investment is peaking as the NBN rolls off and infrastructure starts fade;
  • household consumption is weakening with car sales and international travel down sharply plus retail looking highly questionable;
  • business investment has been good and the outlook for six months is solid but it will track broader demand and housing investment is about to tumble;
  • inventories will ebb and flow;
  • net exports (volumes) are weak owing to China’s thermal coal blockade and the drought despite the LNG ramp up.

In short, the Australian economy is quietly falling apart and if it does not receive any new juice soon it is going to crater as we enter the Hayne Royal Commission recommendations, the federal election stall and Labor’s reform agenda. I have now downgraded my outlook for domestic demand from what was already bearish:

This is an environment in which unemployment will rise at a decent clip threatening much worse outcomes as that feeds back into asset prices.

That markets and economists are still forecasting rate hikes is ridiculous. That cuts remain off the radar of nearly all is bizarre.

Comments

    • We will soon join you, as Australia is trending towards third world status:
      – crowded schools, hospitals, trains and roads
      – creation of third-world slums, although we go vertical with these
      – creaking power infrastructure, where we can barely keep the lights on in summer
      – third-worlds NBN Internet speeds, now 57th in the world, beaten by Kazakstan
      – corrupt government run by lobbyists and political donations, often from China
      – an increase in wealth and income inequalities
      – increasing police powers to spy on citizens.

  1. I want to see a damn big bushfire of a recession…one that burns the place to the ground.

    I have had it with what australia has become…the spivs, greaseballs and just plain crooks who have embedded themselves in modern australia

      • It’s a metaphor dude. Or is even using metaphor a trigger event these days? Surprised you didn’t invoke Godwins law.

      • My mum’s house in Kinglake burnt down in 2008/9 fires. The metaphors makes sense. Fire destroys everything, but then you get green shoots and things recover. We really need a reset after this madness. So I don’t find it offensive at all.

      • Shawn, how can you be so infantile? I would LOVE to have a house in a bush setting with trees everywhere. You know why I don’t buy in those nice and cheap areas? Because there is a very good chance in the next 20 years your house will be razed by bushfire. And a good chance you go with it. That’s just they way it is if you build in the aussie bush. I vividly remember Ash Wednesday as a kid in Adelaide. Live in a bush setting in dense eucalypt forest and one day it will get you. It’s not a matter of if, it’s when. Trying to talk around the issue doesn’t change the fact.

      • Nothing like avoiding discussing it to cause even more people to be unaware of the potential and then blame everyone but themselves if the worst happens, ehh shawn?

        PS “the spivs, greaseballs and just plain crooks” will no doubt avoid the inferno and come out the other side even further advantaged over the good guys. so be careful what you wish for.

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        The obvious solution suggested by the data is to cut those pesky trees down. Which is nicely consistent with current practices.

      • The obvious solution suggested by the data is to cut those pesky trees down. Which is nicely consistent with current practices.

        Cutting is way too inefficient. We just put a big fvcking chain between a couple of bulldozers and drive them through the bush.

      • Chain is too inefficient too in getting rid of the trees, smithy.

        Just wait for a really hot windy day and set fire to the unwanted patch of trees.

      • Just amazing considering it’s mass, how the ball slams around like a pinball off the trees while doing it’s job.

      • @shawn — I would avoid that kind of language. Bushfire is a real fear for many and an awful memory for a few.
        What a snowflake remark. PC to the max

  2. That means two things! AUD to the moon and house prices riding shotgun! LOL, in all seriousness, I think we are in the twilight zone at the moment. When people suddenly wake from their equity maaaaate slumber, there is going to be a lot of bleary wide open eyes wondering what the fvck just happened. Especially at Treasury and the RBA. Even though blind freddy could see it and you guys have been quietly plodding away with the data and analysis pointing out the signs for years.

  3. I get all the arguments here about wanting the place to burn in a recession, but we really don’t want that. There are too many good, decent Australians that it will hurt as opposed to the crooks it will destroy. Many of those Australians made poor decisions that were motivated by the idea of “getting ahead” but were unable or unwilling to see that there is no simple path to riches. On top of this they were mercilessly encouraged to continue to suck on the debt bottle by successive governments and media agencies who worked solely for vested interests. But, I do agree with many here that there will need to be a massive deleveraging and we may as well start now as it is not going to get better on its own.

    • I just want this insanity to stop. House prices rising above inflation and wages growth is plainly unsustainable for the incumbents. That government, bank and media policy has encouraged it has led many sensible people who see it for what it is, well, those people rightfully want to see it burn. To endure ten plus years of water cooler, BBQ and media talking head remarks of how some fvcktard boomer is now a multimillionare through collatarized leverage eventually leads people into a dark place when they can’t even afford a sh1tbox in Druie on 200K wages. I’m thoroughly sick of it. Not to mention all the corruption that has built up along the way between banks, councils, developers, offshore interests etc. To watch your country change in such a short period in an orgy of greed is very disheartening.

    • Tezza,

      You are 100% correct.

      All of this Old Testament fire and brimstone talk is madness.

      What we need is straightforward.

      Heavily restrict ADI lending that does not involve creating new productive capacity.

      That will allow economic activity that is productive but restrict the unproductive speculation aka pseudo investment.

      The prices of existing housing assets will fall but it will not devastate the economy providing money or credit is available for productive purposes.

      The very real risk at the moment is that the banking sector will be allowed to smash the economy with a bunch of clueless bears cheering them on.

      To be clear – the Bankers would love nothing more than a credit crunch to crash asset values because that means assets can be acquired for peanuts by those insiders with access to credit. The top 10-15% will love a credit crunch crash because they will still get credit but you will not.

      Naturally the best solution is to end the privatisation of the public power over public money but properly regulating that privatisation would be a decent first step.

      https://theglass-pyramid.com/2017/02/15/house-prices-can-they-fall-without-crashing-the-economy/

      • I’m sorry pfh. I will not allow “better” to be the enemy of “good”, even in my intentions.

        Private power over public money isnt getting changed. Bank lending is not getting redirected from houses to production. Not in this lifetime.

        A crash is at least feasible, even though it will be strongly resisted too.

      • That’s not a very Austrian thing to say. Have you changed your views? I am surprised to agree with you for a change.

      • Peachy why do you think it will be resisted? The 1% never feel the impact of their decisions eg. Bob Rubin trade. Where do you think Narev’s net wealth would be invested atm?

      • Sweeper,

        You and I agree on just about everything…….when we are being reasonable (we are just rarely reasonable at the same time)

        Especially the dangers of a poorly regulated privatisation of power in respect of public money. Our differences mostly concern how best to respond to that danger.

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        Pfh007 – I like your vision. You’re a forward thinker. But probably a generation before your time. Like Peachy, I can’t see the existing model change in my lifetime (though not undermining the need to continually push for such change).

        Until your time comes, I think only a deep recession will reset many of the things wrong with our economy (and society). Many innocent people will be hurt, but so too will many innocent people be hurt without the reset.

      • Jumping jack flash

        “To be clear – the Bankers would love nothing more than a credit crunch to crash asset values because that means assets can be acquired for peanuts by those insiders with access to credit. The top 10-15% will love a credit crunch crash because they will still get credit but you will not.”

        This. But don’t forget our banks have banks they must keep happy too.

      • Step by step how would a recession lead to a reset? It’s emotion over logic. Do you think Narev is invested in housing and CBA stock at the moment or foreign currency and short term bills?

      • Productive vs Unproductive capital
        hmmm From a make view point, is there a difference if there are no shortages of manufactured goods? (as in everything I want is available and on the shelves)
        Excess productive capacity is also unproductive
        productive capacity (build capacity) for which you have no established markets / sales channels is also unproductive
        come to think of it just wtf is the difference between Productive and Unproductive Capital?
        Seems to me there zero difference until real shortages develop, of course then we have no marketting channels and no production experience along with zero understanding of where the global market is heading (all means we have zero chance of deploying any capital (human, monetary, political, social….) to intersect the market. Today’s product was typically designed at least 3 years ago, production capacity was transitioned (from the 5 year old design to the 3 year old design) over a 1 to 2 year time frame . Oh but wait a minute we don’t have an old design to transition from (does this make it easier or more difficult???)
        hmmm Productive capital I wish I knew what it was

      • Unproductive capital in a national income accounting sense is really unwanted accumulated inventories that pile up at the start of a recession. They are counted as “investment” or capital in the accounts but really are rotting away somewhere in a warehouse.
        The irony of Austrians is that when they talk of the benefit of recession as curing “mis allocation of capital” and “fixing the structure of production” they are actually advocating to increase unproductive capital through recession/ inventory accumulation. This is because their theories are idiotic.

      • All of this Old Testament fire and brimstone talk is madness.

        For a lot of folks it’s less about (genuinely) fixing any problems and more about seeing certain people suffer.

      • Yeh downward envy Smithy. They want to see a nurse lose their equity in their home (life saving) but are happy for Narev to sit it out in t bills.

      • Smithy and Sweeper – yes I want to see every damn nurse lose all her (or his, I guess) equity.

        And then be able to buy back in a few years later for 3x salary.

        In all, when the dust settles, we’d thereby see about 20 years of debt-bondage averted PER-NURSE.

        That’s thousands and thousands of years worth of lives given back to the populace.

        Kill it with fire.

      • fisho
        Given our chronic CAD investment in externally facing industry would be the obvious place to start. As you indicate this may not be easy given our almost total lack of industrial capacity that has been wilfully destroyed by running an over-valued currency.

        The next problem this would face is that, given the distortions of the economy, every externally facing investment would LOOK unproductive. The only productive investments, in terms of return on AUSTRALIAN dollars, would be investments on e.g. transport systems in Sydney and Melbourne – in order to make those cities bigger and better!!! Great solution!

        Essentially investment, in the short and medium term at least, should be assessed on its potential for net foreign currency earnings. This would involve starving the great parasite cities in favour of regions – you know how long the bloke who brings this to reality is going to last!!!

      • @flawse
        Yep I dont believe most people seek out externally productive investments because it’s just so hard and unpredictable. The decision to “invest” in these productive enterprises is not one that one makes Productivity really is a condition that is externally imposed upon one.
        That’s why I keep asking if anyone sees any real on-the-shelf (or rather not on the shelf) shortages.
        These shortages will precede any possible return to an externally Productive economy.
        In the mean time we’ll try to fix the problem with a reinvigorated / absolute faith in financial solutions

      • @peachy
        ” yes I want to see every damn nurse lose all her (or his, I guess) equity.
        And then be able to buy back in a few years later for 3x salary. ”
        Given the massive tightening of credit likely to be required to create this, and the mass bankruptcies resulting from the huge negative equity, I suspect huge numbers of your nurses will never be able to buy back again in that scenario, and large corporate landlords will become commonplace. See the US for precedent.

      • Especially when their wages are being garnished for the rest of their working lives.
        Meanwhile Narev’s wealth will be in the Virgin Islands.
        What a reset.

      • Fisho,

        “…Productive capital I wish I knew what it was…”

        Is it really that hard to grasp?

        Most countries (mostly non Anglo I will concede) don’t struggle with the difference between something that is productive and something that is not.

        They think about what is needed and what is useful and do what it takes to make it happen.

        If that requires some decisions, some regulations, some laws, some action so be it.

        They don’t really on nonsense “the invisible pixie hands” theories to justify pumping resources against the wall.

    • The theory goes that recessions are just part of the capitalist cycle – inevitable.

      https://amp.businessinsider.com/a-recession-is-healthy-and-necessary-2016-1

      “Economic downturns only correct the aberrations and excesses of a boom. The benefits of recessions include:

      *Sclerotic structures in the labor market are broken up and labor costs decline.

      *Productivity and competitiveness increase.

      *Misallocations are corrected and unprofitable investments abandoned, written off, or liquidated.

      *Government mismanagement of the economy is exposed.

      *Investors and entrepreneurs who were taking too great risks suffer losses and prices adjust to reflect consumer preferences.

      *Recessions also allow a restructuring of production processes.

      Any in the above checklist ring a bell?

      Now what we DONT want is a Depression..

      • The theory goes…

        Which one is that?

        Austrian.

        Shouldn’t there be a dot point about the role of banks in that theory?

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory

        “…The Austrian theory is considered one of the precursors to the modern credit cycle theory, which is emphasized by Post-Keynesian economists, economists at the Bank for International Settlements. These two emphasize asymmetric information and agency problems. Henry George, another precursor, emphasized the negative impact of speculative increases in the value of land, which places a heavy burden of mortgage payments on consumers and companies.[41][41][42]

        A different theory of credit cycles is the debt-deflation theory of Irving Fisher…”

        Goodness what a funny bunch!

      • The only reason whatsoever that you’d get a depression in that instance is if the Govt intervenes to try and save the economy (said otherwise, bail out their favoured friends – both corporate and individual). Bailouts necessarily stymie the cleansing and recovery process — using the forest fire analogy — and ensure that a recessionary environment is sustained for an elongated period. It keeps sick and underperforming companies afloat when, for the sake of the economy, they should be allowed to die and replaced with fresh, more nimble entities that can actually thrive (not just survive).

        To Phf007’s point about banks: the monetary system, as it stands, allows such bailouts to occur because it allows the authorities the ammunition with which to execute bailouts. If the monetary system only had real money circulating in it the facility would not exist for Govt to bailout anybody or anything. If you can print all the money you need to fund handouts you, by definition, distort the existing, sick economic structure even more.

    • “were unable or unwilling to see that there is no simple path to riches”

      Well, how do you think thy will frigging learn, eh? Huge raging fire is the only way.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Sure there’s a simple path – convince someone they have no choice other than to take on a massive mountain of debt and then hand it all over. Nothing is faster or simpler than that.

        I think an important lesson is that even though there is a way to compress the entire investment cycle to a single transaction, its probably not the best way in the long term. The easy way will always be available. IR manipulation was always an option. It was just taboo up until the late 90’s when some short, bright spark with large glasses thought “heyyy… lower interest rates… what’s the worst that could happen?”

    • We’ll get a correction, but life will go on. It’s never as bad as the doom and gloom suggests, and never boom forever, but somewhere in the middle. This time though it’ll be a bigger correction as nothing was fixed after the GFC. All I see is greater taxes and harder to get ahead. Our kids are the ones who’ll suffer the worst because pollies are incompetent and we live in one of the most corrupt countries on the planet.

    • I understand your magnanimous concern for the financially unsophisticated many that may be caught by this. But I can’t feel the way you do. I am really concerned that, when the shit really hits the fan, the thoughtful few who have been doing their due diligence for years and bearing the discomfort of watching everyone bar themselves raking in unearned gains, their (our) interests will be sacrificed without ceremony in an attempt to protect the greedy many who were, after all, innocently trying to get ahead.
      That last sentence makes sense, read it again. (chaneling Douglas Adams)

    • This guy is obviously a rraHcist because he listed the extreme high level of immigration as one of the main causes for the high Sydney prices. All right thinking people that have been properly educated know that you never make such statements as it could lead to social divisiveness, and awaken us from our drugged states. Its strange that he can speak freely on such matters because he is an immigrant from Asia (by the sound of his accent) while the citizens of European origin citizens here feel bound by the official Ozzie lies that higher immigration does not affect house prices.

      His comments make a lot of sense.

    • Media rooms are not essential. SUVs and 4WDs are not essential. ‘Treating yourself’ everyday is not essential. Destination and or epic weddings are not essential. Becoming an extortionist landlord is not essential. Earning big salaries from dubious / unethical industries is not essential.

      • Heresy! How could any self-respecting Strayan show their face at a middle-class BBQ without a set of keys to an SUV in their pocket? Or indeed be ready to discuss the size of their screen at home.

        Not sure about anyone else, but up here in Brisvegas the destination du jour is New York. Everyone and their mother has either gone there recently (or is booked to go). Even people who live in the pokiest houses are doing it. Rome before the fall of the Empire, the roaring ’20s before the depression. Tick, tock, boom.

  4. Australians all let us rejoice
    For we are young and free
    We’ve golden soil and wealth for toil
    Our home is girt by sea
    Our land abounds in nature’s gifts
    Of beauty rich and rare.

    For those who’ve come across the seas
    We’ve boundless plains to share.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        The original lines read as:

        “For loyal sons beyond the seas, We’ve boundless plains to share.”

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        That is who Australia was meant to be for – fellow sons from the countries that founded our nation, not economic burdens from fail to launch nations come to seize a piece of what we built.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Nope – truth is not racyst.

        If there was any untruth to what I said R2M then why would they be moving here? Why would they be moving to a predominantly white anglo christian nation, so different to their own societies?

        Especially since under the policy of Multi-Cult they are under absolutely ZERO obligation to make any attempt at integrating into the pre-existing society other than accepting “our values”.

        Values which appear to have been defined by wealthy entrepreneurs as simply being ‘Tolerant to as many people from as many people cultures being crammed into the vertical plains within our cities’.

        Besides, you’re already revealed yourself to be little more than a classist big0t wrapped up in a cloak of fake morality, so your accusations are like water off a ducks back.

        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/01/trump-shutdown-continues-markets-still-freefall/#comment-3261273

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        If there was any untruth to what I said R2M then why would they be moving here?

        Why would they be moving to a nation predominantly founded by 3 Anglo-Celtic nations from the British Isle, so different to their own societies and culture?

        Your argument of silence as to these questions is not very convincing.

        These questions are especially worth considering, since under the guise of Multi-Cult they are under absolutely ZERO obligation to make any attempt at integrating into the pre-existing society other than accepting “our values”.

        Values which appear to have been redefined by wealthy entrepreneurs as simply being ‘Tolerant to as many people from as many cultures being crammed into our cities as possible’.

        The original anthem of those who founded our nation had “Loyal Sons” and makes no mention of Multiculturalism – they didn’t want a ‘beautiful mosaic’ they wanted a strong, united society that was prepared to look after its own and its children. They want a UNITED culture, THEIR culture.

        As to your accusations, you’re already revealed yourself to be little more than a classist biguette wrapped up in a cloak of fake morality, as Ermo put it so succinctly the other day “a fake, wana be, little arostocrat who can not afford to pay the local peasantry to mow his or her lawn or move some fken rocks” and simply want to expand your fake middle class spending power through access to cheap semi slave labour.

        So accusations like yours are like water off a ducks back.

        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/01/trump-shutdown-continues-markets-still-freefall/#comment-3261273

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Water off a duck’s back biguette.

        As I said, your argument of silence is not very convincing and your sad one go to word for any discussion of aspects of immigration that you disagree with, is very telling.

        I treat all people equally, because like Schrodinger cat until you actually meet an individual, their qualities are unknown, they are both good and evil, smart and stupid, healthy and sick. You cannot judge an individual until you meet them, and their individual personal characteristics are revealed.

        But with mass migration we are not talking about individuals are we? We are talking about large population groups, and here the unknown very much becomes known.

        For example median population group IQ differences are very much a provable and measurable factor – and from that single measurement a whole raft of social and economic factors become known and/or highly predictable.

        Of course moralising hypocrites after their slave labour will deny it to the ends of the earth – anything for a cheap slave to cart stones for them. They don’t have to deal with the crime and social issues that present themselves in far away suburbs that they’ll never have to visit.

        Life is pretty sweet for them behind their high stone walls and gated communities within which they live – ain’t that right R2M.

      • I treat all people equally, because like Schrodinger cat until you actually meet an individual, their qualities are unknown, they are both good and evil, smart and stupid, healthy and sick.

        LOL.

        No wonder you love Trump so much with gaslighting like that.

      • That is the re-worded ponzi migration Multi-cult version of the national anthem.

        Actually it’s the re-worded “we’re our own country not an extension of Britain” and “women are people too” version.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Nothing from you of any depth Smiturd, just your usual ignorance.

        The Anthem was reworded and adopted in 1984 by Bob Hawkes Govt, which took Gough Whitlams (read Walter Lippmann) ideals around Multiculturalism and converted them to fit within their Neoliberal framework, laying the ground work for the mass migration that we are both suffering under and that is genociding pre-existing colonial Australian culture.

        The change from:

        “For loyal sons beyond the seas, We’ve boundless plains to share.”

        to

        “For those who’ve come across the seas, We’ve boundless plains to share.”

        is fundamental, it started the repointing of Australian identity away from Colonial Australia and their sons (and daughters) to the noble immigrant and is an important plank of both Multiculturalism and mass migraiton AND the disenfranchising of the pre-existing Australian culture.

        No longer does an immigrant have to be loyal sons (and daughters) who share OUR values and OUR culture, but simply any numpty from over the ocean who wants to come and grab a piece of what we’ve built.


      • Nothing from you of any depth Smiturd, just your usual ignorance.

        LOL.

        Any discussion of depth is wasted on people like you, it just spills over the edges and ends up on the floor.

        It is hilarious watching you flail around trying to explain and justify why the only acceptable immigrants to Australia are Anglosphere wh!tes, without actually having the stones to just say it.

      • Also our plains are mostly really just billion year old windswept deserts with no water. We’re having a good crack at turning the rest into desert too. Come join us!

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        It is hilarious watching you flail around trying to explain and justify why the only acceptable immigrants to Australia are Anglosphere wh!tes, without actually having the stones to just say it.

        LOL

        Smiturd I’ll tell you what would be hilarious if it wasn’t so sad…

        A bunch of moralising NPC’s who Ctr-C their ethical framework from Wealthy Entrepreneurs “think tanks” trying to push all the ongoing social issues in our society, from the crimes committed by Sudanese youth at upto 40 times the rate of other ethnic groups and the emerging issue with Terorrism in Australia, entirely onto the supposed prejudice and racism of Colonial Australians, who unwittingly accepted them into our nation with open arms.

        You don’t even have the cajones to acknowledge the basic truth – by its definition, Multiculturalism weakens and transforms the underlying culture of the host society suffering under it.

        Your moral vanity and intellectual arrogance supports social engineering, on par with everything that Nazi Germany initially embarked on, that could potentially genocide our Colonial Australian culture and heritage.

        Now, try and untie yourself from that one biguette.

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        Immigration is a damn complex issue. People who say all cultures are equal are being silly. But it’s considered very un-PC to say so. “Cultures” (howeverso defined) will vary in terms of their contribution to society, their willingness to integrate, their willingness to follow the law.

        How do we know this? Statistics. Lots and lots of statistics. We should be making decisions on who we allow into the country through a lens of sound evidence. I find it concerning when statistics refuse to be debated or shouts of raycism are thrown unfairly.

        Is there a risk in debating facts that it might give fuel to raycists? Of course. But the alternative is untenable.

      • Why don’t we have more of an acturial approach to immigration? Perhaps reviewing the outcomes of migrant cohorts from countries? Health, employment and social cohesion outcomes would be a great start. Should we be surprised if we see a spike in diabetes in the general population if we are importing people en masse with higher risk of diabetes? Should we be surprised if we see a spike in fraud in the general population if we are importing people en masse from countries with high rates of corruption? At the moment, we just have a ‘bums on seat’ approach, anyone will do (can you make a coffee, can you cook up some scrambled eggs, can you wipe someone’s bum? Yes? Great, you’re in!). Perhaps we should be more selective and take an acturial scientific approach to ensuring we have people that will grow our society, not just be a burden, in the long-run.

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        @ Chase

        I quite like that. Give an actuary responsibility for selecting the composition of immigration. We could do worse – they’re smart and prize logic.

      • People who say all cultures are equal are being silly.

        Fortunately hardly anyone _actually_ says that.

        “Cultures” (howeverso defined) will vary in terms of their contribution to society, their willingness to integrate, their willingness to follow the law.

        Ah. So your belief is that a person is irretrievably tied to their “culture” from birth and consequently will always have the behaviour you attribute to that particular “culture” ?

        How do we know this? Statistics. Lots and lots of statistics. We should be making decisions on who we allow into the country through a lens of sound evidence. I find it concerning when statistics refuse to be debated or shouts of raycism are thrown unfairly.

        I find it concerning when people try to hide their bigotry behind a figleaf of [bad] “science”.

        Here’s a fact for you. Most crimininals are men. We have statistics – lots and lots of statistics – demonstrating this. Should we be making decisions about how men – and especially young men – are allowed to live and work in our society based on that lens of sound evidence, or should we take the “untenable” alternative ?

        Nobody is throwing around any accusations “unfairly”.

      • Perhaps we should be more selective and take an acturial scientific approach to ensuring we have people that will grow our society, not just be a burden, in the long-run.

        You mean by assigning every individual from a particular country with the attributes you’ve determined for that country as a whole ?

        Awesome idea. So great we should extend it to manage society as a whole. You get a bunch of probability statistics around crime, health, intelligence, etc assigned to you based on the postcode you were born in. That can then be used by schools, employers, police, medical staff, banks, insurers, etc, to dictate how and where you’re allowed to go to school, how much you should be paid, what medical care it’s cost-effective to adminsster, whether you need regular (and mandatory) psychological assessments, whether gaol sentences should be relatively short or long, etc, etc.

        We can call it the “Social Credit Score”.

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        @drsmithy

        To answer the question you pose about men committing more crimes. You’re absolutely right – for example, there is a far increased chance of sexual abuse perpetrated by a male than a female. It may be desirable that men are subjected to increased screening versus females for particular roles that may expose them to such situations. Is it “unfair” to the men who are pure of heart? Well, it’s certainly an impost, but net/net it may the right thing to do. And of course, what we see is that male participation in areas such as childcare have dramatically dropped off.

        Yes, we can slice and dice our community in many ways, and in no way am I suggesting immigration is the only area that needs consideration.

        By the way, I don’t appreciate being called a bigot.

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        @drsmithy

        Also, why is a Social Credit Score innately bad? I accept it has the potential to be misused (a very big concern) but leaving that aside… we all operate with invisible Social Credit Scores right now (reflected in our interactions with friends, families, at work, impacting on our prospects for promotion). A properly constructed Social Credit Score could be used to deter poor behaviour and incentivise the right kind of behaviours.

        Whilst I get the ‘Big Brother’ vibe, I’m thinking this will be a likely progression over the next century.

      • By the way, I don’t appreciate being called a bigot.

        Then don’t throw your lot in with people who are.

        Also, why is a Social Credit Score innately bad? I accept it has the potential to be misused (a very big concern) but leaving that aside… we all operate with invisible Social Credit Scores right now (reflected in our interactions with friends, families, at work, impacting on our prospects for promotion).

        Because not everyone from the same postcode thinks and acts the same ?

        There is a *vast* gulf of difference between getting frowned at for doing something that’s socially unacceptable within your peer group (which you can change relatively easily), and being excluded *by power of law* throughout society.

        A properly constructed Social Credit Score could be used to deter poor behaviour and incentivise the right kind of behaviours.

        You mean a set of rules that society should observe with consequences if they’re broken ? Like, say, the law ?

        Whilst I get the ‘Big Brother’ vibe, I’m thinking this will be a likely progression over the next century.

        Of course it will. We’re well on the way to an authoritarian society (with a side of feudalism). And the number of people who are fine – if not enthusiastic – about the idea is fvcking terrifying.

        Those who don’t like diversity of thought or action are fairly OK with this. Those who think “their people” are going to be the ones telling everyone else how they have to live their lives, of course, are overjoyed.

        That doesn’t make it right.

      • We single out those of Aboriginal and or Torres Strait Islander heritage as being ‘special’ based on cohort outcomes, and provide programs based on ethnicity alone. It doesn’t matter if you come from a stable middle-class urban background, or a remote poor community, you get additional assistance based on your ethnicity.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Then don’t throw your lot in with people who are.

        Read – “Then don’t engage in conversation with people who indulge in wrong think – according to my contrived moral code”

        Don’t worry Chase – name calling is pretty much all DrSmithy has, this egotistical moral hypocrite is the sort of person that is happy to sign a petition condensing the Chinese Govt for the Cultural Genocide being committed in Tibet, but when it comes to the slow smothering of Colonial Australian culture through mass migration and the pursuit of Multiculturalism, his white guilt has him lining up to hold a pillow over our collective faces.

        There are a many different possible solutions to our immigration problem and the question of how to best preserve the pre-existing culture that is responsible for nearly everything deeper cultural value that makes or made Australia such a great place to live.

        Social Credit Scores are such a terrible thing in this hypocrites eyes, yet we already practice it in regards to the economy, supposedly preferencing those immigrants who will add value to our economy and grow our GDP and limiting immigration by those whole will be a burden – Why is can we do this for our economy yet are unable to apply a similar filter in regards to our society?

        Why can’t we place annual limits on immigration from countries with radically different cultural and ethnic compositions to our own? Why can we preference immigration for our economy but not our society?

        If DrSmith wants some exotic girlfriend from Africa, sure no one should step in the way of his personal preferences. But why should we import another 80,000 Sudanese just to make his exotic partner feel more comfortable? Why should we introduce the concept of White Privilege, to a society where previously that so called imagined privilege is really the same privilege of being born into any society in the world that has been constructed from one particular ethnic group – that is the privilege of building a society. Yet now this twerp wants to create a fundamental chasm is our society, for no better reason than to satisfy the moral programming he’s “Ctr + C” from the Propaganda tool box of our wealthy entrepreneurs think tanks.

        Smothering existing colonial Australian culture to satisfy the propogated moral viewpoint of our new cultural elite DOESN’T MAKE IT RIGHT.

      • We single out those of Aboriginal and or Torres Strait Islander heritage as being ‘special’ based on cohort outcomes, and provide programs based on ethnicity alone. It doesn’t matter if you come from a stable middle-class urban background, or a remote poor community, you get additional assistance based on your ethnicity.

        Yes we do. And we shouldn’t.

      • yes, they must have been tough as. I’d like to see some pro immigration nut jobs pronouncing “endless plains” dropped out there and see how well they do.

      • “The original inhabitants could.”
        But not in significant numbers. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Australians
        “The population of Indigenous Australians at the time of permanent European settlement is contentious and has been estimated at between 318,000[11] and 1,000,000[12] with the distribution being similar to that of the current Australian population, the majority living in the south-east, centred along the Murray River.”

      • True, but they lived for hundreds of years in balance with nature. How many Western Civilisations can claim that?

      • @Gavin
        “but they lived for hundreds of years in balance with nature. How many Western Civilisations can claim that?”
        All the modern European ones. The ancient Egyptians, romans, greeks and many more.
        Until the industrial revolution and the scientific one that followed there was no choice but to live in balance with nature.
        The exploitation of fossil fuels and advances of science have merely changed the balance point, and it may move back if these energy sources become scarce.

    • Yup, and it’s a wrong that you can’t one day suddenly decide to put right. We’re in this now till it destructs.

      Only a pollie with principles would call this out but as no such person exists we hurtle toward the inevitable.

      • Gramus – re membership – for some of us why the hell would we buy into this echochamber?

        Mr Walker may well be right. Think about this.
        WTSRHTF the only thing the RBA knows is to lower rates and print. Next time it will be printing on a scale not yet envisaged. This will be combined with massive government spending on any idiocy it can think up.
        Indeed this is the fundamental position of MB as well.

        In that circumstance NOMINAL house prices, in a short time, may well end up many times their current level.

      • Gramus – the RBA keeps calling it. I believe them. They surely know what they are doing. It’s imminently imminent. 🙂

      • flawse – even if (speculation) the RBA cuts to zero, prints $$, and Government spend big, two problems;
        1. Banks may not be willing to increase risk, ie; provide easy credit in falling markets. and
        2. Consumers may not be willing to take on large amounts of debt in a falling market
        Zero rates, money printing and Government spending might ultimately stimulate the economy though increased business investment. But it does not automatically mean consumers resume bidding wars at auctions and rising house prices.

        Ultimately greed and fear drive the market and prices, and you cannot have greed until the fear is gone.

      • The fear hasn’t even started yet. It’ll be pretty easy to get the greed going again if lending standards loosen.

      • David
        Just for clarity I’m not saying house prices won’t fall – I’ve wanted it for 50 years!!!!! I’m just saying there is another narrative than the presumed one followed blindly by most people on MB. The RBA will print and eventually destroy the currency – once we run out of resources and businesses to sell to foreign interests. We may well get the period of severe deflationary gloom first and then the inflationary gloom.
        The timing is critical as well as the activity of the fed and ECB at the same time.
        It’s all just not a one way bet.

    • Mystic MedusaMEMBER

      Future Boom in what Mr Walker? Tulips? Crypto-Pentacles? Avocados? Toyatas? Voidance Aprons? Drone Warfare? Cloned Uber Delivery Drivers? We need details please!

      • Haven’t you been reading the RBA releases. It’s pretty much a generic non-specific type future boom, so when it imminently arrives, we will all be generally boomed upon. Or in.

    • SupernovaMEMBER

      Not when the global population of 25-54 peaked in 2017, marking the end of the growing global consumer base. Current consumers are now trapped in a clapped-out debt super cycle indebted to their eyeballs requiring continuous job growth and income to make repayments into declining global GDP growth.
      QE is useless as it will result in fiat currency collapse causing massive inflation.

      • “QE is useless as it will result in fiat currency collapse causing massive inflation”
        yeah, but it makes the debt go away, doesn’t it. And that seems to be your argument here. the debt is the problem. And the massive inflation fixes the debt, so fixes the problem, no?

      • A cigar for you, Super! Demographic time-bomb plus debt-based monetary system equals collapse.

        @bjw
        You sir, are right about the debt going away (assuming hyper-inflation) but what state will the economy be in in that instance? Check out Venezuela for your answer. A fvcking disaster: people so starving they’re eating their pets, unimaginable unemployment, worthless currency etc. Another socialist success story!

        But don’t worry: you know that $1m home you bought back in the day? The mortgage (debt) is virtually worthless. Huzzah! Even better, your house is now worth $100m. The only slight downside being that $100m would barely buy a round of flat whites at your local ’boutique’ coffee joint.

  5. “if it does not receive any new juice soon it is going to crater ”
    “That cuts remain off the radar of nearly all is bizarre.”

    Absobloodyloodle!!! We need to sell more aswsets to foreigners to get the foreign exchange so0 that we can lower rates and maintain over-consumption in the face of a chronic and severe CAD!
    Anyone who thinks otherwise is immoral and, more importantly, totally stupid and irratational.

    • Jumping jack flash

      It is ludicrous how they think that an economy that can only function when an ever-increasing torrent of debt is injected into it is a functioning economy with sound fundamentals.

      Its a junkie economy that is on the brink of death..

  6. If you want this whole Real Estate mindset dead you have to kill it. Anyone who tries that will be immediately removed from power.
    The answers lie back in time.

  7. Jumping jack flash

    The tried and true way out of this mess is insane amounts of government investment into productive capacity.
    State owned factories and manufacturing.
    Reverse Thatcherism.
    They could call it “Buyback – We’re buying back the country”.
    After they sold it all off.

  8. Julia Gillard now what did she add to the nation? Howard sold gold. Rudd spent the surplus. Abbott tried to stop ISIS. Turnbull (worst of all) did what?

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