Australia suddenly finds itself in the most spectacularly uncomfortable position on earth, wedged between two dictators that are leading great powers upon which we depend for livelihood and protection.
In the Eastern corner we have China and its God King, Dictator Xi, who is turning the art of caprice into a giant sovereign hammer. To wit, Canada via the BBC:
Soon after Ms Meng – who is also the daughter of Huawei’s billionaire founder Ren Zhengfei – was arrested, China demanded that Canada release her or face consequences.
Within days, two Canadians, former diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor, were taken into custody in China on charges related to “national security”.
Many analysts believe they were tit-for-tat detentions.
“[Chinese officials] have denied the [detention of] two Canadians are related but of course nobody believes it’s not related, nobody believes it’s purely coincidental,” Mr Jiang told the BBC.
A third Canadian national was arrested this week, though Canadian officials say this latest incident does not immediately appear linked to the Huawei dispute.
The diplomatic conflict has also had an impact on Canadian business interests.
Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association had been pursuing Chinese automaker investment for more than two years but reciprocal interest has suddenly cooled.
“They’ve told us they’re going to continue doing the due diligence, but any manufacturing decision is going to have to wait out the resolution [of Ms Meng’s case],” Flavio Volpe, the organisation’s president, told the BBC.
“And they’re talking about a freeze that could be years, not weeks.”
Parka maker Canada Goose has also been affected, announcing it’s putting off the planned opening of its first store in China amidst public anger at Ms Meng’s arrest.
The Global Times – the state-backed Chinese newspaper – has warned that “Canada’s farming and forest sectors may be next in line to feel the pain due to China’s soured relations”.
Way to paint “I’m a dictator” all over yourself! Whatever happened to patient oriental inscrutability? Chinese firms worldwide are struggling to get access to markets (see Huawei and bank funding today) and God King Xi has just pointed a rifle at every visiting dignitary. They are going to stay away in droves.
For Australia, this turn towards outright and irrational hostility for independent client states is very worrying. What happens when we are forced to step inevitably out of line?
Then, the Western corner we have the US of A led by Dictator Donald. He’s forced to be a democratic leader but clearly doesn’t want to be. He is getting his wish not through some clever coup or conniving false flag operation but by shear obnoxiousness and staff turnover. Via the AFR:
Australia’s close defence relations with the United States have been rocked by President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw thousands of troops from the Middle East and the snap resignation of respected US Defence Secretary James Mattis.
…He was widely known as one of the “adults” in the Trump administration, trying to keep the turbulent US government on course.
Lowy Institute senior fellow Richard McGregor said: “Mattis was a good friend of Australia, understood alliances and treated Australia as a good friend.
Mattis appears to have resigned over the troop withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan. What will really upset Aussie authorities is the capricious abandonment of erstwhile allies in both.
As I have written before, Trump is a Jacksonian president and that means less foreign wars so this is not a surprise. There is an identifiable tradition through which to view and understand his decisions. As well, Steven Bannon has made it very clear that the Pacific theatre is an entirely different kettle of fish for the White House. Attempts to denucluearise the Korean peninsula need not be seen as undermining this.
However, as threats build throughout the Asia Pacfic’s eastern crescent, the increasing unilateralism of the Oval Office is unsettling to say the least, which is increasingly staffed by only the most ardent Trumpists.
Then again, at least Trump is not a God King and faces checks and balances, via The Australian:
Twenty-one members of the congress, including 10 Republicans and 11 Democrats, have moved to allay Australian “concerns’’ about the departure of Mr Mattis, Australia’s best friend in Washington, declaring they would act to protect the “special bond” between the two countries.
…The letter, addressed to Australia’s ambassador in Washington, Joe Hockey, said “we share many Australians’ concerns about Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis’ recent announcement that he will step down from the position in February 2019”.
“We write to you to reaffirm our commitment to the enduring alliance between the United States and Australia,” it said.
“As members of the Article 1 co-equal legislative branch of government, who have both budgetary and policy powers over the foreign and national security policy of the United States, we are writing to strongly reaffirm our agreement with Secretary Mattis that it is in the United States’ enduring interest to maintain and strengthen our alliances, built of shared values and shared interests, particularly in the case of our special relationship with Australia.
“Moving forward, we want to extend our deep and sincere commitment to maintain America’s special bond and alliance with your country.”
China’s dictator has a very thin skin, even thinner than his American counterpart, not exactly what you want to see as the two jostling superpowers figuratively and actually buzz one another’s sphere’s of influence.
Not to mention what will happen if one of the two tyrants genuinely takes offence at the other.
