Iron ore prices for December 7, 2018:
Spot up. Paper up. Steel up. Coking coal is very strong but I don’t think that can last. Chinese iron ore port stocks continue to draw down, hitting 138.6mt last week. Chinese imports of iron ore for November were at 86.2mt and the year is tracking below 2018 at 977.9mt versus 991.3 last year.
China’s iron ore imports have peaked structurally. The rolling annual is now falling and will keep doing so as scrap rises. Trade growth is stalling with worse ahead.
After a restock I still think post-February 2019 is shaping as weak. More downside ahead for steel, iron ore and coking coal prices.
At least until the next Chinese panic.