Via CoreLogic’s 2018 — The Year That Was … and the Year Ahead What to Expect in 2019:
We expect housing finance will remain a formidable obstacle to improving housing market conditions next year, but higher quality borrowers should be able to secure debt at very low rates as lenders compete for their business.
Despite a lift of around 15 basis points on variable rate owner occupier mortgage rates in 2018, mortgage rates haven’t been this low since the 1960s.
Next year is likely to see more of the same for Sydney, with values set to drift lower throughout the year.
The unit market has been a big drag on Brisbane growth rates, with unit values still around 5 per cent lower than they were ten years ago.
We expect the unit sector to recover gradually during 2019 due to rising migration rates resulting in higher demand and less new supply entering the market.
Sydney minus another 9% and Melbourne minus 6.5% they say. Seems a reasonable supposition. They’re too bullish on other capitals in my view. As the economy stalls I expect Brisbane to be drawn in as well though nowhere near as steep. Perth to keeping on falling as mining deteriorates next year.
All of that assumes rate cuts in my mind. Without them all bets are off.
