Gotti swarms with negative gearing scaremongers

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By Leith van Onselen

High-rise Harry Triguboff’s mouthpiece, Robert Gottliebsen, has joined the scaremongers over Labor’s negative gearing policy:

It is now clear that Victoria — the property boom state of the past few years — will lead the Australian home building industry’s downward path, no matter which party had won…

Given what’s happening in Victorian housing, the hidden warning for the ALP is that its negative gearing policy is very dangerous.

…in Victoria, a severe slide is well and truly underway. In outer suburban areas, Victorian builders are already experiencing orders down a sickening 40 to 50 per cent from a year ago. Inner suburbs are not as bad. The Melbourne outer suburban land sales boom is over and volumes have slumped. Prices will follow…

On top of all that comes the atom bomb — the ALP negative gearing policy.

“Atom bomb”. C’mon Gotti. Dwelling construction is set to fall irrespective of Labor’s negative gearing reforms. After every boom there is always a pullback.

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Besides, Labor’s policy will direct investors towards newly constructed dwellings. Therefore, it should stimulate new home construction, other things equal, as noted recently by developer Stockland:

The Labor Party’s plan to limit negative gearing tax breaks to new housing would put a rocket under the business of residential developers because demand from investors would surge, Stockland chief executive Mark Steinert says…

“Our business will rip,” he said at the Property Council of Australia’s annual congress in Darwin.

As well as Deutsche Bank:

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“Our sense is that the relative attractiveness of new dwelling investment compared to investment in established dwellings should be a positive, at least at the margin, for new dwelling construction”.

Stop being so sensationalist.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.