Via Capital Economics today:
Our view that the world economy will undergo a reasonably sharp slowdown over the next couple of years stands in contrast to the relatively rosy consensus. (See Chart 1.) And it has led several clients to ask the obvious question: what causes the downturn in our forecast that others may be missing?
This was the theme of a series of presentations we gave to clients in Europe last week. One point we emphasised was that it’s rare for economic downturns to be caused by a single factor – most tend to have their roots in several different areas.