What will cause the next global recession?

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Via Capital Economics today:

Our view that the world economy will undergo a reasonably sharp slowdown over the next couple of years stands in contrast to the relatively rosy consensus. (See Chart 1.) And it has led several clients to ask the obvious question: what causes the downturn in our forecast that others may be missing?

This was the theme of a series of presentations we gave to clients in Europe last week. One point we emphasised was that it’s rare for economic downturns to be caused by a single factor – most tend to have their roots in several different areas.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.