Scott Morrison faces an epic challenge to restore confidence in his shattered government, with new polling analysis showing a collapse in support for the Coalition in every mainland state and across every demographic group since the leadership spill.
Analysis of four Newspolls since the August 24 leadership spill casts a bleak picture for the government six months out from an expected May 2019 election.
The data, based on the two-party preferred swings since the 2016 election, reveals the Coalition faces the prospect of losing 25 seats across the nation, eight held by current frontbenchers.
That would hand Labor a fifty seat majority. That is unheard of in the modern history of Australians politics. Not since 1975 and the collapse of Labor post-Whitlam has any kind of lead of that size been enjoyed by a government. Labor’s largest ever lead was 25 seats, half the prospective win, when Bob Hawke swept the Fraser Government from power in 1983.
Only during WWII has Labor commanded such power when John Curtin mulled nationalising the banks!
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
