MacroBusiness Weekend Links 6-7 October, 2018

Crowd, Grace Cossington-Smith, 1922, National Gallery of Victoria

 

Global Macro

 

Asia

 

Europe

 

Americas

 

Terra Incognita

 

…and furthermore…

Comments

  1. Get your arms around this bear: FITCH Ratings has warned that global bond markets face a rude shock as the US Federal Reserve jams on the brakes to avert overheating, with grave implications for inflated asset prices across the world.
    Investors have underestimated the Fed’s determination to drain excess liquidity and prevent the inflation genie escaping from the bottle.
    “When you listen to what Fed chairman Jay Powell is saying, you have to take him at his word,” Mr Coulton said. “We think there will be 4 more rate rises by the end of next year, and the markets have not got their arms around this.”
    Mr Coulton warned of a “giant sucking sound” as the G4 central banks switch rapidly from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening.
    Analysts fear markets around the world are not prepared for what is ahead. Surging yields were a “wake-up call” for over-leveraged companies and countries that depend on a constant inflow of foreign funds. (Eg Straya)
    Global debt had risen 60% to $US182 trillion since the last financial crisis and this is likely to be tested.
    What is clear is that the era of easy borrowing across the world is over.
    We will have to live within our means.
    Telegraph, London.
    No 1 BTW

    • Definitely an interesting night last night, US 10yr yields still going hell for leather and AUD hit another new low…

      • @jelmech. The claim that the curve HAS to invert to signal an impending recession is fallacious. It has been a precursor to prior recessions but it is not a necessity. When raising from the zero bound the likelihood of an inversion diminishes — Japan had 6 or 7 recessions where the curve did not invert prior — they’ve obviously been camped around the zero bound 4EVA.

        The curve has come dangerously close to inverting recently: that is more than sufficient.

    • like I posted over a week ago on a comment re FX moves ……… all interesting, but wait until the bond crisis hits – then we’ll all know just how fragile everything really is

      we are all living on the cusp of an economic tipping point that will – and this I think is the best scenario – take at least a couple of decades to play out ……..

      • When the bond crisis hits, every major CB on the planet will have the printing presses cranked to the max to rein in rates across the curve. There will only be one asset to own at that point ..

      • Dominic…

        You are aware that it then crashes relative too other assets because of utility, especially considering the distribution of physical ownership. I guess some people think or believe that you can store sunshine or entropic activity in a soft malleable commodity like some religious artifact stores divine powers.

        Then trade goes back to the stone age and all that comes with it.

      • @Arrow2 ……. as you would know, extremely difficult to predict. I had thought the EU might be the trigger but recent events in SCS have me re-thinking a bit. IMHO initial triggers will be a combination of the following:

        – Italy : at some point, within 12 months, the anti-EU parties/people will have the critical ascendency, Italy will move to exit EU which will trigger both a political and banking crisis in the EU. This may be accelerated by either or both of another influx of ‘migrants’ and increasing social unrest over those already in the EU. The end of Draghi’s tenure and [presumably] German take over of ECB could also start the cards falling;

        – PRC and trade war : from the outset my starting assumption has been Trump will ramp it up systematically and Xi, rather than give the US a token victory, and therefore lie low for a few years hoping everyone will forget about their blatant robbery of IP etc, has decided to double down. Each step Xi has taken has only made it more obvious that the CCP is absolutely serious in its intention to re-establish the Chinese in their self proclaimed rightful position as the supreme culture of the world. Everyone else is inferior, both racially and culturally. Xi cannot back down now.

        As HnH has written, the US/PRC trade war/cold war has [very quickly] become the defining struggle of our time. PRC naval posturing and expropriation of territory in the SCS cannot be tolerated by teh US or other countries in the region, especially us. Personally, I think freedom of navigation exercises will have to be ramped up to test just how far the PRC are prepared to go. The CCP will whip up internal patriotism as a counter to this as well as a means of distraction from the deteriorating economy ……..

        Timing? Well let’s just say there are too many moving parts. Watch carefully for CCP jingoism and or a more radical approach to the trade war ……..

        Middle East : Syria is largely under control, well sort of anyway. Iran will make noise but keep retaliation to actions via client groups. Nothing appears too intense or dangerous right now. Israel will keep things balanced.

        Russia : Can’t see the ‘alliance’ with PRC going anywhere. They have always been and will remain natural competitors. The spy games in UK/Europe strike me more as playing games to distract from the more serious efforts at cyber attacks. Ultimately, Putin can put pressure on the EU via energy blackmail but not much else. Too many problems locally and within their few client states. Don’t see any immediate issues here to trigger the crisis;

        African continent : only real contribution will be the continued invasion of EU by ‘migrants’ …… to me, the real issue here is the escalating social disruption that, as you know, varies across the different EU countries. If you see more nationalist or so-called right wing parties getting power or controlling the balance of power you know the count down has started. The other indicator would be more riots, outburst of looting etc ………..

        South America : the impending default in Argentina is more a re-hash of known history rather than any sort of game changer. However ill place additional strain on the already fragile international banking system.

        I think the ‘sleeper’ issue is the spreading social disruption as people escape from Venezuela into surrounding countries. Same song sheet – local populations become increasingly restless, political ineptitude in addressing problems, social unrest/criminality increases, local financial crisis adds to international fragilities ……. at some point, bang;

        South and South East Asia and Oceania – see PRC above ……

        USA – the immediate indicator will be the mid term results. My take – the Kavanaugh nomination process has shaken a lot of people. It comes down to just how many people who don’t normally bother will come out and vote. The DNC is clearly going to play the sexist card (along with the usual identitarian politics) and hope that the white woman vote will shift to them. If that happens, and Trump becomes trapped by a hostile House and Senate, I think the US economy will seize up and accelerate the onset of the coming bond crisis.

        Alternatively, and what think is more probable, the GOP will take the lead in the midterms and Trump will head into 2020 having added infrastructure stimulus as described in articles by HnH.

        SO – when does it all hit the fan????? For mine, if we’re still bumbling along in 2 years I’ll be utterly amazed, ie I think by end 2020 and, in the context of the above, quite possibly earlier …………..

      • davidjwalsh…

        You are aware that the DNC and Hillary are basically moderate republicans seeking to garner urban and city republicans away from the more rightwing GOP.

      • DavidJ – many thanks for the very thoughtful post. I agree with a great deal esp. the foreign policy issues – EU and China tensions are definitely the two big ones for mine. Not so sure about the US politics… time will tell… but Trump is dominating the discourse and the agenda like no president has in decades – he has surprised us before…. and if the Republicans lose out this Nov we might see a defiant Trump ramp up even further on China.

        As you say, many moving parts – and most of them barbed and explosive.

      • @skip ……. “You are aware that the DNC and Hillary are basically moderate republicans seeking to garner urban and city republicans away from the more rightwing GOP.”

        Ahh come on Skip …. this is much, much more than party politics …… let’s keep it really simple. What I am aware of is that elements of our societies have, with the active support of many delusional groups and coteries of duplicitous, traitorous scum worked to manipulate western / ‘developed’ world economies to serve the so-called ‘1%’ and their ‘running dogs’ as Mao (correct?) put it so well …… it’s not really that complex Skip. Whatever you or I might think about particular views and or values that people in the US and Oz have, their opinions matter ……..

        more and more ‘mr and mrs average’ type folk are beginning to understand they have been sold a croc …… but what is not yet understood is that there is a really bad storm coming at them, at all of us ….. and when it does all the party political factional BS that infects MSM (and unfortunately, some commentary here) is going to be worth three fifths of sweet FA .

      • David….

        I was just pointing out how regardless of currant PR imaging where these polies stand on a longer time line. The GOP has become increasingly filled with more fundamentalist Christian members and their attitude towards social organization vs the DNC which abandoned the traditional labour support due to fund seeking and its more moderate brand of Christianity wrt females et al – yet both are Third Way to the core.

        As far as China goes I view that as a self inflicted wound by the financial elite seeking both to grease short term profit and expectations of infiltrating and then modifying China to their desires – reminiscent of actions taken post fall of the USSR. All this saber rattling is just a stunt to make the unwashed malleable and distract from other issues back home. Especially the advent of alternative views getting increasing eyeballs. I really don’t see open war between the US and China is not coming out to fight but would only take a defensive posture. Not to mention the decades of fraud and looting in the DOD coupled with endless troop deployments effecting its operational capacity. I hear the recruitment numbers did not make their target.

        On the other hand trade shock as always proceed all kinds of nasty stuff and very hard to predict, especially considering the just in time globalization aspect these days. But then we have all the ongoings in the EU and Brexit let alone the music getting louder in America.

        If you ask me the rubber will meet the road when this next AGW report comes out and the physical aspects can’t be PR’ed away. Till then.

      • @ Skip …….. sounds to me we’re basically on the same page. Unfortunately bad times ahead ………

      • Good work
        Lets hope becker doesnt see that he will have all sorts of breakout theories
        bollinger bands etc. next stop 6% etc.
        Uncharted territory, beyond the right hand index etc
        Woo hoo.

  2. New Zealand dollar heading to GFC lows by end of the year, ANZ (Bank) says … Stuff NZ

    (Note the comment volumes to the Stuff article … GINORMOUS ! )

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/107637408/new-zealand-dollar-heading-to-gfc-lows-by-end-of-the-year-anz-says?cid=app-iPad

    … falling like a brick …

    https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/NZDUSD=X?p=NZDUSD=X

    The New Zealand dollar has taken a dive against the greenback and will continue to fall to levels not seen since the global financial crisis, ANZ predicts. … read more via hyperlinks above …
    .
    .
    The Great Bond Sell – Off … Martin North of Digital Finance Analytics … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Duv0peMNFWU

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Sorry Dad, Gunther couldn’t find the key, and then we couldn’t call ’cause the lines were down​ and their was no connection and once we got going again this massive cloud rolled in and it wasn’t safe to keep going on the highway. Sorry!

      Besides if you really cared about me you would have still been up when I got home.

  3. Just in case this was missed by some.

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/federal-mp-stuart-robert-internet-bills-qld-gold-coast-home/10342074

    “Prime Minister Scott Morrison has ordered an investigation into why his Assistant Treasurer Stuart Robert has been slugging taxpayers up to $2,800 a month for internet bills at his home on Queensland’s Gold Coast.

    Mr Robert, the Member for Fadden, said “connectivity issues” at his home on Queensland’s Gold Coast were to blame for his unusually high bills.

    Mr Robert charged taxpayers more than $11,000 for home data over a six-month period, the latest parliamentarians’ expenditure reports show, which is an average of $1,846 a month for internet usage.”

      • We need to create a hybrid robocall/ATO officer/Regional QLD police officer to be in charge of parliamentary expenses. All politicians are to treated as though they are a poor, young, single mother in a regional town with no employment except underpaying and exploitative fruit picking. That is, mercilessly.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I’d like the job of cross-checking travel expenses with actual trips and diaries. Hey, you had a meeting the night before the footy? Claim denied! You book a trip on expenses you go to the official function only. No footy for you. You wanna take Kelly Bundy to the Vatican? Claim denied! You don’t need taxpayer money to be a hypocrite.

        I’ll do it. I only work part time. I got plenty of time to [email protected] our elected filth up. For a small fee of course. The internet is expensive. Apparently.

      • Business as usual. So, what was he using it on? Sicko Jebus porn or crypto mining?

        300GB/mo really isn’t that much. My guess is he just wanted higher speeds than the more affordable wireless products had so picked the fastest/most expensive one that just happened to have volume charging after a particular period.

        I am surprised the Gov does not have a mobile data pooling arrangement with Telstra or Optus giving MPs (effectively) unlimited data tethered off their phones. Most large corporates certainly do.

        This is just another example showing how none of these fvckers should be allowed to manage and claim expenses for day-to-day work requirements like internet connectivity and offices. These things should be provided for them. And that includes accommodation for when they’re in Canberra, probably one of the biggest individual rorts of the lot.

        But, no, that would be “inefficient”. Because free markets and stuff.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Lachlan, works like this.

        Pollie: I want to go to the footy on taxpayer expenses.
        *rings local political party office*
        Pollie: Hey, can you set up a meeting on night before footy so I can claim expenses?
        Local Office: Sure. Five people enough?
        Pollie: Plenty. Not like I’m going to talk to any of them.
        Local Office: Sweet, we’ve got plenty of useful idiots who wouldn’t notice anyway.
        Pollie: Cool.
        *hangs up and reaches for expense forms*
        Local Office: God, now we’ve got to put up with the federal clown for a weekend.
        *reaches for scotch bottle*

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Oops…or did you mean Jebus porn and crypto?

        Jeez…mining jebus porn. That’s sicker than my dwarf fetish.

        Are you allowed to say dwarf these days?

      • Dominic…

        Rest assured that no C-corps balance sheet bares that burden… being job creators and all… sorta like dawg….

    • But wait, there’s more..

      Check out @BelindaJones68’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/BelindaJones68/status/1048216834455953408?s=09

      I’ve been having a little squizz at @stuartrobertmp’s expenses claims. Interesting stuff, let me tell you!

      Let’s start with his ‘Office Facilities’, I’ve compared Robert’s claims to all 4 other Gold Coast MPs & also Senator Murray Watt, who all have offices in SE QLD.
      #auspol

      • That’s amazing. Even the most charitable interpreter of this would find it difficult to create justifications for those amounts.

      • What’s the bet that the internet claim involves some kind of fraud and that he was in fact paying TPG $70 a month and some how inflating the invoice (perhaps forging it) and pocketing the extra.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        They know what they’re doing. Betcha “Ripping Off Entitlements” is the biggest chapter in the parliament induction handbook.

        The problem they’re facing now is the cynical users of the internet. Pollies aren’t used to being watched and by jove, they’re not happy.

    • I see he went to Kepnock High in Bundy. At least it was 15 years after I was there and a couple of years after my youngest sibling left. The old alma mater demographic certainly went to pot.

    • Jeez! I open that link and nek minnit I’m watching Mig trolling Peter Fraser who offers to flog him an investment property…!

      Is that every Friday night at your place Ermo?!

      • Never understood migs affliction with free market outcomes when he makes enough to move else where… oops… that would make him the one bringing down the ambiance in the new local.

        Sorta like an American comic from the 90s with dry monotone delivery – poses the question – have you ever put the key in your front door and when you turned it… your house started up? So I drove in around the block… and then through town… and thought I would see what it could do on the motorway…. So I took the off ramp and parked it… then told everyone to get off my F^k’n lawn…. chortle….

        Maybe for a bit more tranquil pace he could work at some remote mine or construction site. Then instead of trying to educate everyone by tweeting he could go down to the local pub and inform everyone about how stoopid they are.

        I’d pay good money for that entertainment.

      • He’d be a one hit wonder in a pub like that!

        They’d hit him once, and he’d wonder why…

      • He’s staying where he is because of the income he gets and potential status multipliers of that income and his position affords him at work and in the public. Seems his grievance is how everyone else is making things more expensive, which in turn effects his income relative to PP or how lesser beings are screwing with his reality bubble.

        Its just so Dickens… I can see mig in a jaunty hat and racing his carriage through the streets on important businesses matters…. cursing the unwashed for their impedance…. all whilst banging on about ending poverty…

  4. As China has been on the radar of late wrt inquiring minds, I wonder how many know how much of what we consider Western is preceded by the Song dynasty – circa 960 and continued until 1279 – per se restaurant culture and eating etiquette.

    Funny how some take ownership of cultural markers regardless of the historical record, its right up there with Leonardo.

    • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

      Hey Skip, I liked your post on how Japan was pushed to war as the only way to defend its sovereignty and identity. Good stuff!

      • Another relevant issue is how in the run up the tensions produced counter productive approaches by both nations. In Japans case the Emperor was lifted to more divine status and with it rewarming old warrior culture, before or at the moment the Emperor was created, out of whole cloth, it was a mechanism to end war between clans as a focal point e.g. all clans agreed to work in support of the Emperor as a cultural anchor point.

        I find this curious considering the increase of executive powers granted the President since 9/11, which imo were proposed to only be temporary.

    • I would only add that you consider the advent of think tanks like FEE et al, that I have linked to in the past, and the quotes from key supporters and their thoughts on democracy.

    • That article has the balance and searing insights anticipated of a 16 year old who has just discovered political theory.

      • Not unlike your comments inability to formulate a coherent response outside of some emotive rhetorical pandering.

        By all means do take it to task but don’t insult everyone else intelligence with your female laden cat scratching.

  5. The ‘man of the people’ largely avoided the people

    Interestingly though, the “man of the people” didn’t actually do much interacting with ordinary people on this visit.

    His carefully managed appearances were mostly confined to official events, rather than meet-and-greet shopping centre walk-throughs or other unscripted encounters with regular people.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-06/scott-morrisons-first-visit-to-perth-as-prime-minister/10339380

    If this works, enough voters are bigger idiots than I thought.

    • Yes,we have sulphur crested cockatoos and galahs( pink and grey) moved in recently to join the gloriously beautiful and amazingly noisy rosellas still here after the last drought.3185,inner southeast,not far from coast.
      On the totally irrelevant wildlife note,we also have quite @ decent colony of foxes. Can see them most evenings, and even seen a vixen and her cub- they are totally unperturbed by passing pedestrians. Murder on the chooks though.( ours live in the chicken equivalent of Fort Knox)

      • The chicken equivalent of fort knox
        When the first Kelpies were bred from a controlled mating with dingoes,they were so valuable and to stop the original gene pool being stolen, those Kelpies lived in the dog equivalent of fort knox
        your library will have the DVD of the Kelpie story
        Kelpie’s are so clever, that if they went to ag college, they could easily run the property.

      • WW…

        You should see our 8mo old female Belgian shepherd cross Australian Kelpie, not only eats training up but has the best demeanor. So we have and older small male chihuahua cross maltese, looks maltese with a bit of the dark chihuahua side. Now on top of that we have a 13 week old black long coat male German shepherd that weights just about as much as the Belgium Kelpie [18kgs].

        So the little fella sometimes gets cranky with the pup and attempts a go at him, so the BK gets in between and herds him away whilst giving him licks or contra when the GS seems bold enough to have a go at the little fella she will lay on him to block his approach.

        Both new dogs are getting training, but, the BK demeanor is not suited to full training, although the GS is going to get the highest level. Something about being around 70kg demands it.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        WW I’ll look it up later but correct me if I’m wrong but we have a chocolate bench Kelpie (as well as black lab) and the missus was a vet nurse most of her early life. Was always under the belief that the farmers had a problem with dingoes so when their border collies were on heat they chained them up just out of reach of the baits to attract them. As you would expect some mated unintentionally in this process creating the Kelpie.
        btw her name is Winifred ( after Winifred Atwell), Winnie for short.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        JS . Watch those cockatoos, they will destroy anything. Ripped all the signage off the building down the road and annually destroy our big Mandarin tree not eating them just nipping them off and surrounding the neighborhood in a carpet of orange coloured uneaten waste.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Some explanations.
        Border Collies are from the Scottish border.
        We have a Bench Kelpie because it is cruel to have a working dog in the city as they get a mental illness being cooped up. The frustration of not being worked all day sends them loopy. Bench Kelpie’s are bred for show and companion, usually one colour so need not work, although still showing some traits.
        btw We also have three feral cats, which she had desexed.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        She sells spacious suites by the sea shore.

        Soon to be underwater.

        Literally and figuratively.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Nice one Haraldous …….and you could tweak it
        The pain in Domain is mainly in the Hayne …….
        ..this chap has gotten such a name for himself on this banking pile I can’t see him letting them snow him ………
        ……..that is if the judiciary is still to have any clout in Straya
        ..

  6. So China controls global electronic supply chains and it finally occurs to security minded people that this is possibly a problem…Hmmm Possibly they’re right, maybe hardware security matters, maybe component Provenance is important, could be that software is not an impenetrable layer, maybe machine abstraction and process virtualization are not all that’s required to achieve real world security.
    So what were they trying to achieve by hiding a small microcontroller core in the packaging of a passive component and including it on a Server level board?
    Was the purpose to control boot level zero?
    Was the purpose to sniff data?
    If so what data? and how do you recognize that data when it is being handled by multiple cores and probably viewed through multiple levels of machine virtualization?
    Sure when it’s all said and done the data in RAM is normally completely decrypted but it’s also meaningless unless you can narrow it down and find specific things (like the Encryption keys) than you’re stuck with a huge problem to exfiltrate what ever RAM data you gather.
    How do you do this unnoticed?
    How much power is required to build a transmitter (wired or wireless) that can ship Gbps data? If you do the calculations you’ll soon realize that it’s not possible to do this with any component that is small enough to pass for a passive ceramic decoupling cap (It’s a thermal thing w/mmsq creates some hard physical limits)
    So what are they doing with any data that they gather?
    So many questions, so few answers …kinda has me believing the purpose of the whole exercise is to have the entire western computer security apparatus second guessing itself….wasting time on what is a waste of time.
    But maybe I’m wrong!
    Fun times indeed.
    .

    • So China controls global electronic supply chains and it finally occurs to security minded people that this is possibly a problem…

      I dunno about “finally”. I remember some security nerds I knew talking about it 5-10 years ago, so presumably the really serious guys in TLA organisations have been thinking about it for even longer.

      This was the first thing I thought of when I read the story this week: http://wiki.c2.com/?TheKenThompsonHack

      • Yep the good old compiler hack supplies instant backdoors
        as many as you want and as often as you need them, no more need for ZD’s just generate them on the fly. Even 100% secure and vetted patches come with their own inbuilt backdoor.
        So what’s the purpose of a deliberate and eventually detectable Hardware hack, maybe the sole purpose of this hack was to be discovered. As DW suggested yesterday, Isn’t it convenient that they discover this precisely when Trump’s tariffs are creating so much component / assembly cost uncertainty with US corporations. Maybe this is the excuse that US corporations need to return electronics and semiconductor production to the US (or maybe Mexico). Maybe this whole homecoming can be funded by DARPA.
        Fun times indeed.

      • @fisho..agree with you. I see there are lots of denials in the US over night about the BBG story. Unless we had detailed tech analysis we’d never know. I seriously don’t trust the Chinese, and have worked with an ex Huawei software engineer and know some of the capabilities that they have from that (the number of s/w engineers in mobile comms is huge). Also saw how around 2005 they were flooding the 3GPP standards meetings. The thing to remember is that IMO all the IA’s have hacking capabilities that to some extent are not visible, so why would the CCP do this (if the theory of re-config at boot time and burst out the data via the internet would make sense, but monitored systems in NCC would surely see it?? I’m not sure, and maybe we’ll never know, but we can see from what the CCP are doing at every level they’ll try, and succeed, to steal what ever they can, and for us to think they won’t and it’s a big western scare campaign is naive. I think the scare is that the US and others allowed it to happen, and are now just realising how bad it is. It’s the new reality.

        As an aside on this I have a IT forensic mate who worked for the Aussie banks and he never uses Virus s/w, and at first I thought he was loopy, but take for example any of the one you use and see what viruses they find, I won’t name it’s but one finds none that I’ve been able to verify.

      • So Yes, it does look an extremely suss claim. Why did no one hear about this for 4 years and now we do. It’s notable that the denials are so specific. As others have noted – why would you add an extra chip to the board, when China manufactures most of the other chips and could alter them so the exposure was completely undetectable visually. Where is the hidden 7nm capability? Why won’t Bloomberg let the companies see the security report that was supposedly commissioned by Amazon in the first place. There seems to be be something really dubious about the specifics of this exposure claim. The other side of it is that it is feasible, absolutely feasible, but looks to be evidence poor in this case.
        On the one hand these are journalists with an excellent research reputation. However, they do seem to have mainly been talking to a group of insider Government resources with unknown agendas in an administration that rewards BS (provided it is the right BS – no pun intended), and undermines the market credibility and valuation of Trump’s enemy Bezos’ Amazon. I remain skeptical until an altered motherboard actually appears.

    • interested partyMEMBER

      “So China controls global electronic supply chains and it finally occurs to security minded people that this is possibly a problem…”

      Hudson Institute hosting Mike Pence…speaking about US-China 2 days ago.

      https://youtu.be/aeVrMniBjSc

      • That was a phenomenal speech. We should all start to prepare for war.

        There is no way an economy as structurally distorted (with attendant buggered incentives) as China can survive the path to the format the Americans are asking for; not without political upheaval. Its just not going to happen.

      • @T
        That is right. Things could go really pear shaped in China in the next few years and there is no telling what Xi Jinping is capable of in response. As for Mike Pence, he is largely just calling it as it is.

      • thanks for the post IP ………… one of the most important & defining speeches of our times …. an additional benefit – it illustrates Mike Pence’s credentials as an alternative president if anything happens to Trump. Additionally, it seems to me that you’re seeing the GOP presidential candidate for 2024

        this is going to be a very long drawn out battle …….. as long as the US avoids the domestic stupidities & capitulation that have marked Oz policies of the last 15 years we may still see a balanced US / PRC relationship ……. can only hope

    • This what I said yesterday, except that the suspicious thing about this Bypass Cap Bug is that it is targeted at sowing seeds of doubt about the total reliance on the China Supply Chain. Not espionage, but more like importing frozen berries contaminated by salmonella. That is remarkably aligned to the political issue of the Trade War.

      In fact, many people have been concerned that over the last decade or so our electronic goods depend on Chinese factories. one obvious example is our almost total reliance on Chinese Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs not to be confused with the chemical PCB). The chinese have ensured that they make the best and the cheapest. Anybody could make them, but not as cheap. If we were unfriended by China that alone would be a sudden stop. Retooling in the west would take at least 6 months, and maybe longer to get up to speed. China could pretty much pull the plug on our electronic world. We would have to hope not much breaks.

      How do you get the average punter to grok this? You can’t say “China has hacked our computers” – because that is old news. Saying that the China supply chain will give us Electronic Food Poisoning is more likely to get a response.

      BTW, there are still some crazy people who have tried to maintain independence from China. These crazy Europeans for example – https://www.olimex.com/ Believe it or not, there was a little factory in Marrickville, Sydney that actually made PCBs up until about 25 years ago. Long gone.

      • @DW
        This what I said yesterday
        Yeah and that’s why I also gave you credit.
        maybe the sole purpose of this hack was to be discovered. As DW suggested yesterday,
        sorry if it looks like me trying to steal your ideas…that’s not my style at all.

        Generally speaking Hardware hacks are sort of meaningless standalone they need to be used in combination with other methods before they have any real threat potential, so you need other software or access to program timing …all kinds of other things are needed to make this “device” a real security threat.
        However, one of the ideas that I read last night is that the sole purpose of this chip is to seed the Random Number Generator. Now that makes some sense (if it is at all possible)
        In Cryptography a bad Random Number Generator could be a potential source for so called Weak Encryption Keys. It is well known that If the Encrypt keys are weak, than so is the Cyphertext but it is not obvious to anyone looking at the Cyphertext that it was created with weak keys.
        Makes sense that this is a hack that one would want to get onto government Server PCB’s, if indeed it does impact the RNG’s. A hack like this is never intended to Extract data but rather just to weaken the cryptography and thereby make it possible to extract data from encrypted databases obtained by other means.

    • Huh – ?????

      History
      Foxconn connector box tag in 2014

      Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd., trading as Foxconn Technology Group, better known as Foxconn is a Taiwanese multinational electronics contract manufacturing company with its headquarters in Tucheng, New Taipei, Taiwan. Today, it is the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer[3] and the fourth-largest information technology company by revenue.[4] The company is the largest private employer in Taiwan[5] and one of the largest employers worldwide.[6][7] Its founder and chairman is Terry Gou.

      Terry Gou established Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. as an electrical components manufacturer in 1974. Foxconn’s first manufacturing plant in China opened in Longhua Town, Shenzhen, in 1988.[10]

      One of the important milestones for Foxconn occurred in 2001 when Intel tapped the company to manufacture its Intel-branded motherboards instead of Asus.[16] By November 2007, Foxconn further expanded with an announced plan to build a new US$500 million plant in Huizhou, Southern China.[17]

      In January 2012, Foxconn named Tien Chong (Terry) Cheng chief executive.[18] He resigned the same year, citing health problems.[19] At this time, Foxconn made up approximately forty percent of worldwide consumer electronics production.[20]

      Expansion was further pursued after a March 2012 acquisition of a 10-percent stake in the Japanese electronics company Sharp Corporation for US$806 million and to purchase up to 50 percent of the LCDs produced at Sharp’s plant in Sakai, Japan.[21] In September 2012, Foxconn announced plans to invest US$494 million in the construction of five new factories in Itu, Brazil, creating 10,000 jobs.[22]

      In 2014, the company purchased Asia Pacific Telecom and won some spectrum licenses at an auction, which allowed it to operate 4G telecommunications equipment in Taiwan.[23]

      In February 25, 2016, Sharp accepted a ¥700 billion (US$6.24 billion) takeover bid from Foxconn to acquire over 66 percent of Sharp’s voting stock.[24] However, hours later, the deal was put on hold after “contingent liabilities… worth perhaps billions of dollars” were discovered.[25] A month later, on March 30, 2016, the deal was announced as finalized in a joint press statement, but at a significantly lower price than before.[26]

      In 2016, Foxconn, together with Tencent and luxury-car dealer Harmony New Energy Auto, founded Future Mobility, a car start up that aims to sell all-electric fully autonomous premium cars by 2020.[27] A Foxconn unit, Foxconn Interconnect Technology, announced its intent to acquire Belkin International for $866m on March 26, 2018.[28]

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foxconn

    • A friend of ours has been trying to sell her apartment in Yagoona for the past 8 weeks – bought for $300k in 2008 on market for $450k – not a nibble!!!!
      Agent told her that everyone was having trouble financing and investors were missing from the market.
      She decided to wait for better times and to rent it out for a year or two.
      On Friday got the tap on the shoulder from HR – redundant after 10 years.
      Bearish enough?

      • Damn. Grizzly bear.

        The redundancy is the stuff of nightmares.

        People complain about going to work, but try having an upmarket lifestyle with lots of possessions and lots if debt and then being laid off.

      • could have been much worse … waiting for 9 years for the market to correct and then give up and buy it for a discounted price of 425k

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        That’s not fair! Twice in my life I’ve been hanging out in a job for far too long because I was waiting for that rumoured redundancy payout. Bad for the mental that is. And these lucky sods get it for nothing!

        This country…

    • Unfortunately I seem to have an eye for houses that still sell in this market. Last 1 was in the $1.2-$1.3m range and I was hoping for $1m range. Sold…or at least under offer. Deals still fall through.

    • That whole article just highlights what a rort the privatisation of the whole of land dealings is. PEXA is turning out a shocker. The NSW government refusing to share how much the registry is making by declaring it to be “commercially sensitive”.

      How is the public able to decide whether the privatisation lived up to the promises of the glossy pamphlet if they can’t compare all aspects of before and after? Truly terrible stuff.

      • Proprietary information mate, now for a good time consider that aspect wrt knowlage and privatized education functioning on a profit based model – Science-Mart: Privatizing American Science – by Philip Mirowski

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      afund , glad to see you’re still with us after last weeks no show, was worried you may have come off on the road. Speaking of which, should mention that my HED wheels have serrated rims on the braking surface for wet weather. My experience is the extra cost may not be worth it but on the other hand the brake pads don’t wear out near as much as commonly believed ( still haven’t needed to change them )

      • I’ve been pretty busy with work, but we will probably get another 500km week after tomorrow. I’ve been doing it tough and very tired. I mentioned to a guy I ride with and he was an ex semi pro rider and knows your setup well. He’s ridden with Robbie McEwen. Robbie after his year in Europe used to do club rides to promote the sport. My mate has a very high opinion of him. Hope you can get some k’s in this weekend.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Take my hat off to you for your distances but my ostinate belief, systematized from gym experience, is that a short intense workout ( uphill in high gear) is better than a long halfhearted one. This stupid theory of mine manacles me, preventing those great endurance rides.
        Oh I know this is preaching to the converted but glad my fairings aren’t excessive as side gusts create instability.
        What do you think of the idea of front windscreen type fairing?
        Forgot, Max and I clocked in early 80’s doing 65 mph getting sucked along behind a truck for about 10 klm+ Kwinana to Rockingham

      • Bloody hell that’s fast and I assume on the flat. I’ve seen vids of the fairing and heard that speed of over 100mph in the US have been done, but the recent record is crazy. My best ever, two years ago, which I don’t intend repeating was on the Lourdes side of Col Du Tourmalet was 94 km/h and my mate was over 100, and we had guys passing us into this little village near the bottom of that descent. It was on my Giant TCR composite and it’s just not stable frame wise for those speeds. Even at 60 I didn’t feel safe. Somehow, last week I was at 73km/h for a few hundred meters down a decent near Mornington. Normally, we ride training 27 – 40 , but the average is around 30, and to hold that for say 100km’s is enough. I don’t want to come into summer stuffed, which I’m on the edge of at the moment. I have to remember this is for my health. We just get carried away at time as you do. I’m out at 12 for a decent ride so that’ll be another week down. 25c here today so I’ll be nice for a change.

        https://www.bikeradar.com/road/news/article/cycling-land-speed-record-52942/

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        It wasn’t that hard for me having 165 ratio (68 chainring to 11), but Max had normal gearing and his cadence bursts were incredible. On the flat yes, and some sections over 110klm/hr,. average of 65mph. That Campagnolo, I modified the frame to take the gearing and put the rear derailer threaded bracket forward so the chain would wrap around the 11 tooth more to stop it jumping but that didn’t stop the multiple broken crank axles. Iv’e also made my own Cervelo goose neck post, aluminium post going into the forks because the Cervelo is only glued in thin alum.
        Must see what speed it does going down Warringah Rd, but tend to do a lot of braking these days.
        Good luck with your ride and try not to overdo i, having work commitment to also share your energy.

      • Structured indoor training in erg mode with TrainerRoad = winning

        Has been a great way of raising my FTP.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Also on the Cervelo Qrings, threaded and screwed 2mm allen heads to draw the rings together as sometimes the chain would go between.

    • Privatisations are not necessarily a bad idea — it’s the execution that’s the problem. You have people on the Govt side (with little or no commercial experience) negotiating with experienced private guys who always get a great deal i.e. guaranteed returns (risk free money). Added to which the Govt guys are not selling their personal assets — they are selling someone else’s assets AND there is little risk of them losing their jobs so there is really no skin in the game. The taxpayer gets shafted 90% of the time … naturally.

  7. This week was the start of a new era in US China relations. All pretense of co-operation is now gone. ‘Engagement’ is over and rapid decoupling to occur. For a good weekly summary of the big China stories check out Bill Bishop’s Saturday piece in Axios
    https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-china

    Bill also has a paid daily newsletter which is $15 a month but absolutely gold especially as China decoupling picks up pace. Worth your time if you want to stay informed as things get really crazy r.e. China.

    • Also check this out for the real flavour of things in the ‘new’ China:

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45761466

      The U.S. is getting more insular and China is doing the same. Things are getting ugly — Chinese money that comes to this country is going to be desperate money soon. HnH is right that capital controls will stifle Chinese investment here. Their currency will soon be under severe pressure again.

      • Meng not faithfully carrying out instructions from Beijing in his role at INTERPOL? It just illustrates that anyone in China can be ‘disappeared’. Even the president of an international police body.

        Im really worried about where Xi’s China is headed, especially if the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation/race’ starts to come off the rails. We could see the Xinjiang camps go nationwide, a return to the cultural revolution perhaps. Almost anything is possible from Xi if things go pear shaped.

  8. This is the best piece I read this week.

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/neweconomics/distribution-wealth-little-productivity-everything-power/

    It looks at the role of rule making and the rights granted to specific groups and how that both defines what wealth is and who accumulates it. It compares the UK to Germany. Even though the UK appears to be wealthier on paper it is clear that Germany is the one that is functional and succeeding while keeping the future in mind.

    • As I am want I would suggest people look into how corporate governance is administered, per se compared to America where someone can sit on 5 different boards, boards are play things for CEO’s and largely a rubber stamp, or say Hillary sitting on the Walmart board pandering in her political PR about middle class concerns, whilst employed by a major contributor of the destruction of small businesses, which in turn constituted a major destroyer of middle class wealth for cheaper prices to consumers, not to mention all the lost taxes due to Walmart’s business strategy – especially considering its effects on local and state revenue.

      But in some cases places like Texas they make it up with marginal taxation on consumers – see old discussion with Hugh.

  9. A friend told me that he’s moving to Thailand and taking his business with him. This is because the internet is cheaper, faster and more reliable than inner Sydney. He’s not the first online based business I know to go to SE Asia for that reason. It’d be interesting to find out how many have chosen to go and how many young business people we are losing annually because of these reasons.

    • We know people who are doing the same……..it is not just on-line businesses. The military seem to be able to stay out of people’s everyday lives as long as the people stay out of politics. The common refrain from the older people already there is that the business climate reminds them of Australia in the 1960’s.

      I am sure there is plenty of corruption and the long term ecological outlook is dire, but for a while yet a lot of people enjoy their lot free from many of the useless pressures we put up with in our daily lives.

      • So old testament… do we all get to move into the big house when it all blows up – ????? – sigh….

      • People buying increasingly expensive homes are generally unaware that the global population ex-Africa is actually peaking. Who will people, buying multi-million properties today, sell on to in future? There will be a natural peak in property prices too (at least in real terms). There will be a long slide into oblivion Japan-style. I note that Bank of America released a note the other day saying that Japanese land prices had risen for the first time recently (since 1991!!). That’s where we’re headed — one way or another.

        I reckon it’s this fact that keeps straya unabashedly importing immigrants at a furious rate.

  10. Market flat as anything in bris above 900k. Hardly any at open homes this sm. Slowdown. Re agents v v quiet and might have to actually work for their money

    • I hope you’re right. Am about to put in an offer on a place and hoping the low-ball offer works. RE agent says apartments are weak but family homes still strong.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Dominic, try an extra low ball, you’ve got nothing to lose, every time we missed out the next one was always better.

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      Maybe, the RBA, the Treasury and Josh Frydendebt have had a word in their ear about getting on to the same page, that avoiding a credit crunch is paramount?

      • Zero doubt. When it’s considered a matter of ‘national importance’ I can’t imagine the telephone lines between these departments aren’t ringing hot.

    • With respect to ”the law” and from MartinNorth and John Adams and talk of bail ins, I have suggested that would end in the high court and that, the banks bailing in deposits while insolvent and having traded for a long period while insolvent would be very “material” in making a determination

  11. In Culture Studies this week, apart from Kavanaugh, it’s all about Sokal Squared. Worth a google.

  12. Mining BoganMEMBER

    I’ve turned motor racing on for the first time this year. When did they start racing tradie utes? The bloody ring road of a morn is bad enough. Always thought the level of aggression must correlate with the amount of debt the driver holds.

    At least these guys have in-car cameras so using their phones is out.

    • Starting to hear more and more anecdotes of houses and apartments just sitting on the market, including settlement failures due to credit tightening.

      One couple I know of trying to sell an apartment complaining the market has gone quiet.

      A couple of people I’ve talked to in the industry who deal with a lot of RE agents say the agents are quite worried with all the construction happening, and tightening of lending criteria.. 2.2pc drop over the last quarter.. will be interested to see what happens over the coming months.

      Maybe I’m just imagining it, but i swear I’ve been past a few developments now where there appears to be little to no progress. Elermore Ridge comes to mind. Drove past for the first time in a few months — it looks like they’ve started construction, but no further progress?

      • When this thing turns for real, it’s going to get seriously ugly. Very ugly.. so much of the economy is construction dependent. It’s gonna hurt.

      • 10% of the workforce is in construction which is crazy high. The end of the construction boom could double the unemployment rate. If that happens the economy is basically sunk given debt levels. Think of all the defaults.

    • Doesn’t the chart show USD net longs against other currencies? ie there is a net USD long against the AUD, (or AUD net short against USD).

  13. A bit of podcasting on a topic of endless interest…….

    Neoliberals hate the state. Or do they? In the first intellectual history of neoliberal globalism, Quinn Slobodian follows a group of thinkers from the ashes of the Habsburg Empire to the creation of the World Trade Organization to show that neoliberalism emerged less to shrink government and abolish regulations than to redeploy them at a global level.

    Slobodian begins in Austria in the 1920s. Empires were dissolving and nationalism, socialism, and democratic self-determination threatened the stability of the global capitalist system. In response, Austrian intellectuals called for a new way of organizing the world. But they and their successors in academia and government, from such famous economists as Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig von Mises to influential but lesser-known figures such as Wilhelm Röpke and Michael Heilperin, did not propose a regime of laissez-faire. Rather they used states and global institutions—the League of Nations, the European Court of Justice, the World Trade Organization, and international investment law—to insulate the markets against sovereign states, political change, and turbulent democratic demands for greater equality and social justice.

    Far from discarding the regulatory state, neoliberals wanted to harness it to their grand project of protecting capitalism on a global scale. It was a project, Slobodian shows, that changed the world, but that was also undermined time and again by the inequality, relentless change, and social injustice that accompanied it.

    The relationship between neoliberals and the state is one that has been endlessly debated. Are neoliberals anti-statist? Or are they advocates of a strong state?

    https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir-3brxb-4a54361

    https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/new-books-in-economics/id425187524?mt=2&i=1000419965919

    • The best bit about this podcast is that it is a fairly objective discussion largely free of the gibberish hysteria/conspiracy ad hominem that we are so familiar with whenever the subject of neoliberalism comes up.

      The author makes the point that at this point it is not clear what a ‘left/progressive’ response to neoliberalism should be.

      To date most on the ‘left/progressive’ side of political spectrum have done little more than simply ignore the problem, dream of a time machine / wail about the good times back in the day etc and accuse anyone who engages with the challenge of an alternative as being closet neoliberal or libertarian.

      • “Mirowski identifies three basic aspects of neoliberalism that the Left has failed to understand: the movement’s intellectual history, the way it has transformed everyday life, and what constitutes opposition to it. Until we come to terms with them, Mirowski suggests, right-wing movements such as the Tea Party (a prominent player in the book) will continue to reign triumphant.

        The book begins with the war of ideas — a conflict in which, Mirowski argues, the Left has been far too generous in taking neoliberals at their word, or at least their best-publicized word. We have, in effect, been suckered by kindly old Milton Friedman telling us how much better off we’d all be if the government simply left us “free to choose.” But neoliberals have at times been forthright about their appreciation for the uses of state power. Markets, after all, do not simply create themselves. Joining a long line of thinkers, most famously Karl Polanyi, Mirowski insists that a key error of the Left has been its failure to see that markets are always embedded in other social institutions. Neoliberals, by contrast, grasp this point with both hands — and therefore seek to reshape all of the institutions of society, including and especially the state, to promote markets. Neoliberal ascendancy has meant not the retreat of the state so much as its remaking.”

        https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/06/bulletproof-neoliberalism/

        http://www.academia.edu/10397779/Review_of_David_Harvey_Brief_History_of_Neoliberalism

        Philip Mirowski and Dieter Plehwe (eds), The Road from Mont Pèlerin. The Making of the Neoliberal Thought Collective

        https://journals.openedition.org/oeconomia/1434

        On the other hand anyone griping about the left should seek cognitive help – therapy, as clearly stated by Hudson, the money from high worth investors clearly funded the neoliberal project. The left back in the day had no solution to that amount of money, network architecture, or political influence peddling.

      • BTW what is the historical record wrt any leftie sort of government democratically elected within the sphere of Americas corporatists. Investors pull out, currency is given the treatment, MSM starts bashing it, C-corps even sabotage operations and distribution, CIA coups are not unheard of, etc, etc.

      • Skippy,

        You should listen to the podcast you might benefit from some new sources.

        “Until we come to terms with them, Mirowski suggests, right-wing movements such as the Tea Party (a prominent player in the book) will continue to reign triumphant.”

        I see Mirowski making exactly the same point I made above.

        Thanks for the helpful footnote.

        Shame you spoilt it with your usual defeatist drivel.

      • Not defeatist, just pointing out the record.

        At least I don’t attribute it to banks or money when its grounded in the financial elites funding to secure their preferences for social organization.

      • For the the pundentariat –

        “Weede and Sarrazin made another telling — and seemingly paradoxical — argument: that closed borders were necessary to save globalization. “Knowledge, goods and ideas” should be free to migrate, Sarrazin said. People, however, did not have to move “in large numbers.” That had already “brought nothing but deterioration.” While the extension of production chains and cross-border trade had led to the economic uplift of distant foreign populations as a group, immigration only helped the small number who made the risky voyage. “Even under pure humanitarian (Rawlsian) criteria,” Weede added, “it would be bad if mass migration threatened global free trade.” People must remain fixed so that capital and goods can be free.

        In particular, the world’s poor needed to remain segregated from the world’s rich. When asked “what kind of immigration would be good,” Weede answered, “exactly the opposite of the kind we are getting.” To secure economic freedom and social stability and to avoid civil war, large-scale migration from African and Asian countries must end. Weede suggested two alternatives drawn from fellow Mont Pèlerin Society members. One was Gary Becker’s proposal of selling “the right to immigrate” for a fee. The second was Richard Posner’s proposal of IQ tests to screen would-be migrants. This was not a swing from open to closed, but a modified openness informed by neoliberal ideas of human capital, the knowledge economy, and the prerogatives of wealth and competition – ideas entirely at home on the peaks of Davos.” – snip

      • Neoliberalism is accelerated class war; which has been successful only because collaborators like Keating destroyed the labour movement.

      • The book begins with the war of ideas — a conflict in which, Mirowski argues, the Left has been far too generous in taking neoliberals at their word, or at least their best-publicized word.

        This is the biggest problem. The Left, for decades, has been far too willing to compromise (some would say capitulate) with the inevitable result of being ridden roughshod. Because they thought that the post-WW2 benefits of “leftiness” were so obvious that there’s no reason anyone would seriously want to attack it.

        This pattern of habitual compromise has become so normalised that even relatively minor issues where heels are dug in a little bit like raising the dole to be stable in real terms, or recognising when full time workers actually are full time workers (on the economics side), and same sex marriage, or suggesting that supreme court justices should have some vestige of integrity (on the social/legal side), face hysterical, doom-portending right-wing responses.

        Hence the reason you need to look long and hard to actually find Lefties anymore – they’ve mostly been compromised by lifelong indoctrination into third-way philosophies (ie: neoliberal economics + socially liberal), or just given up.

      • Smithy, that was always going to be the case when the “left” allowed the battleground to shift from the industrial space to academia and parliament and a bunch of careerist lawyers who have never had an ethical moment in their lives.

  14. Who are these freaks who (apparently) put all their cash in a single speculative stock?

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/i-have-lost-30-years-of-my-life-savings-tesla-investors-rage-at-musk-as-tweet-sends-shares-falling-20181006-p5083y.html

    I mean I know some people in Australia go all in heavily leveraged into a single asset class, but our property speculators are a special kind of special. I would have thought people elsewhere had slightly more sense…

    Actually who am I kidding, I’m not surprised at all. I’m barely even surprised they tweet in public about it.

    Everywhere is f#cked in the head.

    • His loss is my gain.
      The signs have been there all year that this is one giant clusterf*** and no Elon hype was going to turn this ship around.
      It’s in REAL trouble – I don’t think it will make it to 2019… .

    • I read that and thought the same thing. “Hey..I have a GREAT IDEA…let’s bet our 30 years of savings on Tesla, then piss and moan a lot if it turns pear shaped!”.. …”Sounds good to me…can’t lose…what could possibly go wrong?”

      There are chumps everywhere.

      • Exactly. In fact:

        Let’s do a thing, and when the EXACTLY MOST LIKELY AND PREDICTABLE OUTCOME occurs, let’s be surprised and complain about it as if anyone but ourselves was to blame.

    • Prior to the GFC a blogger had convinced himself there was no need to diversify across several industries or asset classes. He had instead diversified his money across several oil stocks. His money was secure in his own mind.

    • https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11692-016-9371-x
      It is notable as well that through the development of the kelpie and cattledog breeds, dingoes were at times introduced into the breed gene pools as breeders tried to breed specific traits or characteristics in or out. However, whilst dingo DNA was introduced to both breeds, it was done in different ways. The kelpie breed originates from European collies which have had dingo DNA introduced into the breed, where as the cattle dog breed was created by crossing drover dogs from the north of England with dingoes (Arnstein et al. 1964; Clark 2003). The kelpie lineage was crossed with dingoes, with subsequent offspring being bred back with pure collies, effectively to retain many of the collie traits. Dingoes were crossed with this line on a number of occasions, with the offspring being bred back with the majority collie population. This differs from the cattle dog breed, which was intentionally created as a cross of drover dogs with dingoes. Hence, the cattle dog breed is a direct cross of dingoes with drovers from the outset of the breed, not an established breed to which there was a gradual introduction of dingo traits to (as with kelpies) (Clark 2003). Hence, it is likely that greater proportions of dingo (wildtype) DNA persist in the cattle dog compared to the kelpie breed. Therefore, it is likely that the cattle dog breed retains more wild type, dominant alleles than the kelpie breed, which might explain why it is slightly dominant over the kelpie in the F1 cross between these two breeds.
      I’m surprised the genomes of these animals have not been sequenced. I think the dingo has been done – there were a host of dog genetics papers about a year ago, very interesting.

      • When you say cattle dog, do you mean blue healers? Interestingly, i havent seen a blue for many years now. Kelpies are even pretty rare these days. Both were very common in the 80s.

      • that’s just a cut’n’paste mate, but my reading was yes, blue/red heelers.
        they are bloody smart too, lazier than kelpies tho. Lazy and smart often go together.

    • Good work, the DVD on the Kelpie is worth watching
      same for the blue cattle dog.
      Both those breeds, mostly, are the horsepower of the pastoral industry.
      But for sheer woof and bad ass, you need wolf.
      Wolves are for equity markets!

  15. Got a question about this new emergency services 40km/h rule
    Ok so earlier in the week I’m driving down the M1 minding my own business travelling about 110km/h, there’s an 18 wheeler in curb-side land and another overtaking it, I was behind the overtaking semitrailer. Next thing I know the truck on the inside has it’s brakes locked up and the trailer is swaying but before I can react the truck in front of me has its brakes locked up fortunately the third lane was free so I got around them but damn it was close. All caused by a highway patrol having just pulled someone over after coming around a blind corner..
    If my experience is anything to go by this law is going to kill at lot of people, it’s probably the most stupid law in the history of stupid laws, am I the only one that finds this new rule stupid? .
    I guess in the end I broke the law passing the cop at much more than 40km/h but the truth is I didn’t even see the cop until I was well passed their car.

    • Agreed that it’s the most stupid law out there. I think it’s dangerous too especially on a freeway so i will slow down to whats safe which may not be 40kmh. It’s a recipe for disaster the govt in this country has sh!te for brains

      • yeah it was just stupid, a very dangerous situation created for little gain.
        sure I want emergency services to be safe but this sort of stupidity doesn’t improve safety for anyone.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Lovey got caught out last week on the freeway with this. Not a busy day so she saw the idiot lights flashing in plenty of time so she just got off the throttle and let the car drift back to 40. Reckons she nearly ended up with a motorbike in the back. The walloper was yelling at traffic but lovey doesn’t know if was directed at her or the bike. Thing is it was an unmarked car displaying the lights.

      Is an unmarked car still an emergency vehicle?

    • Glad you’re ok. What about the scenario where the highway patrol is sitting on the side of the road checking speed. Are we meant to slow to 40kmph?

    • So many accidents occur because people are trying to be mindful of the speed limit rather than concentrating on the road.

      Ironic, isn’t it?

      • Yea it is kind of weird, In my case the first semi was practically jack knifing, I was genuinely concerned that it was going to tip over on top of me. If it had tumbled over I’d obviously be toast but in all likelihood so would the cop and the other motorist that got pulled over ….really does have one asking Cui Bono.

    • A few weeks ago, leaving Bungendore, I drove past a cop car with the flashing lights on but otherwise doing bugger all. After I passed it I could see in the rear view mirror the lights going off.

      Bastards.

  16. ErmingtonPlumbing

    I spent much of the day on thursday or friiday driving around inbetween jobs during the constant rain we had in Sydney, listening with facination first to Alan Jones, and later the rest of the same sounding Drones of 2GBs “comentary team”, they were aggressively and rentlessly talking about how outrageous it was that the State Government wasn’t allowing A Horse Racing event! to be advertised on the sails of the Opera house!
    It was surreal.
    They made it the only discussion of the day and no arguments against the Opera house being use to Advertise this gambling business event was tolerated.
    They even wanted Barrier numbers with horses names to be projected onto the sails …I presume they would have liked the odds also!
    Though they didn’t mention or admit it,…it was clearly paid for cash for commentary, it was very focused lobbying, aggressively directed at a struggling state liberal Government making it quite clear that the issue was not going to be droped with rentless media vitriol to be leveled at them untill they submitted to 2GBs wishes.
    Only the most dullarded boomer Ignoramus could not have noticed the transparent abuse of 2GBs power, as the most listened to Radio station in the Country.
    They should have the $hite finned out of them,….a fine guaranteed to hurt them more than any benefit they garnered from using their media platform to threaten, bully and manipulate an elected Government.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-hands-racing-nsw-alan-jones-victory-in-opera-house-battle-20181005-p50837.html

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/you-should-be-running-everything-said-broadcaster-alan-jones-of-now-disgraced-minister-ian-macdonald-20170526-gwe34v.html

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Ermo, can you find out at the next meeting why Albo and Foley supported the decision?

      Just seems very stupid.

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        Do we really have to ask that Question MB.
        Our 2 ruling parties, when they do “win” government only barley manage to get across the line these days and with the wider voting public largely distracted and disinterested in the political process, Powerful moneyed interests can and do turn elections.
        Our Ambitious Careeist politicians of ALL parties know this and pick their battles.
        Whats so,…almost funny,…is how amaturish and parochial this incedent is,…unlike the smooth and sophisticated propaganda of global coporate Plutocracy, our local c#nt of a bloke Alan Jones carried on like a small town Boss Hogg to impress bigger players in the Horse racing industry.
        Utterly transparent performance that it was, to manipulate local state politics,…it worked!!!!
        That the guttless strategists and leaderships of all our main parties give in to such things just reinforces my view that the Rank and file of ALL parties should have the controll of what their careerist “leaderships” can authorize and legislate.
        I have not come across a single person who thinks a horse race should be advertised on the Opera house,…democracy at work eh

    • roylefamilyMEMBER

      Title: Human Reactions to Rape Culture and Queer Performativity in Urban Dog Parks in Portland, Oregon

      By

      Helen Wilson, Ph.D., Portland Ungendering Research (PUR) Initiative (fictional)

      Gender, Place, and Culture

      Status: Accepted & Published

      Recognized for excellence. Expression of concern raised on it following journalistic interest leading us to have to conclude the project early.

      Thesis: That dog parks are rape-condoning spaces and a place of rampant canine rape culture and systemic oppression against “the oppressed dog” through which human attitudes to both problems can be measured. This provides insight into training men out of the sexual violence and bigotry to which they are prone.

      Purpose: To see if journals will accept arguments which should be clearly ludicrous and unethical if they provide (an unfalsifiable) way to perpetuate notions of toxic masculinity, heteronormativity, and implicit bias.

      Selected Reviewer Comments:

      “This is a wonderful paper – incredibly innovative, rich in analysis, and extremely well-written and organized given the incredibly diverse literature sets and theoretical questions brought into conversation. The author’s development of the focus and contributions of the paper is particularly impressive. The fieldwork executed contributes immensely to the paper’s contribution as an innovative and valuable piece of scholarship that will engage readers from a broad cross-section of disciplines and theoretical formations. I believe this intellectually and empirically exciting paper must be published and congratulate the author on the research done and the writing.” -Reviewer 1, Gender, Place, and Culture

      “Thank you for the opportunity to review a really interesting paper. I think it will make an important contribution to feminist animal geography with some minor revisions, as described below.” -Reviewer 2, Gender, Place, and Culture

      “As you may know, GPC is in its 25th year of publication. And as part of honoring the occasion, GPC is going to publish 12 lead pieces over the 12 issues of 2018 (and some even into 2019). We would like to publish your piece, Human Reactions to Rape Culture and Queer Performativity at Urban Dog Parks in Portland, Oregon, in the seventh issue. It draws attention to so many themes from the past scholarship informing feminist geographies and also shows how some of the work going on now can contribute to enlivening the discipline. In this sense we think it is a good piece for the celebrations. I would like to have your permission to do so.” -Editor of Gender, Place, and Culture

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I woulda thought the A9X would draw the big bucks.

      I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that their estimates are going to be a quarter to a third out. Times have changed.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Well, I was right and wrong. The VH got the two million but the VK got less than half the estimate. The HO was $200k less than the last one sold but a 186s HT got $250k!

        Wonder who paid the two million? Looking at you, Larry Perkins.

    • I love that that was in the “innovation” section. True innovation when you can get people to bid a car up to that price.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yeah nah. When I gets a Stude I want all of it. In the shed. With the keys. I want the barked knuckles and the frustration.

        This is for people who want to boast at the bar in the yacht club.

    • Gav I heard on the car radio yesterday that the provenance of some of those Brock cars was doubtful or they were only marginally associated (bits swapped out etc). Stop me if I’m getting too technical here.

      • I’ve spent ages trying to find you a quote when it comes to the provenance of race cars, thing is race cars often have very hard lives. But they also undergo many changes over the years, and change hands between racers many times, get repainted, parts swapped in and out etc.. In some cases they get re-shelled after being bent. So how do you define a car as being original in that context?

        It’s a bit of a how long is a piece of string type question…

      • Absolutely beautiful. Those pop up headlights flush with the bodywork makes it for me.

        In lieu of this, I’d settle for a Datsun 1600 with an L20 breathing through a T4 and a Webber.

      • What a beast! Classic FJ20… That trick 80s JDM stuff is gold. Might have accelerated a cultural change here a long time ago if they had been able to push these spec cars in our local market.l to compete with the locally made tractors and taxis.

    • Look at the med prices for both. It seems there were more than few motivated sellers there..

      • Sydney median only just holding above $1m. Astonishing!

        Is there a graph of the median auction values over time anywhere? Suspect it would paint an interesting picture of the boom, and what we seeing now.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I think the median was below a million last week.

        Two or three weeks ago it was 1.3m

        Excellent.

    • Holy cr*p Sydney – 46% not reported
      Number Listed Auctions: 553
      Number Reported Auctions: 297
      Sold: 202
      Withdrawn: 101
      % Cleared: 51 %
      Total Sales: $141,372,116
      Median: $1,020,000

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Are 46% of real estate agents down the pub totally pissed ……HTF can these numbers be presented with any credibility ……..given the unreported
        …………sorry forgot ….this is Straya real estate …and it’s different ………. …..now that’s different !

      • Need to add the withdrawn to the reported because they are part of it. So approx 400 reported meaning an non report rate of closer to 27%

      • @tailor for sure it is a bottle out but it is counted in the numbers as a reported auction, as I understand it

      • Excellent work. Yup, the industry is closing ranks, the numbers fudged.

        Sh!t is getting real.

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        Melbourne actual clearance rate sits at 38% (834 auctions and 324 cleanance rate) with a median of $723,000, the MSM have not caught up to this number wang yet, when they do and start reporting it there will be blood in the water. IMO the key indicator of when SHTF is when public perception changes, it is already shifting, but the ground is moving under them faster than they realise.

    • Last week auction results in Sydney revised down to 37.6%!!!!
      Panic will be coming in a matter of months on these numbers.

    • Yes, read that with interest this afternoon Gunna.

      Rough translation: “Let’s agree not to make this an election issue. We both know the Australian public can’t be given a say on immigration and the country’s population policy.”

      Just formalising the unofficial unity ticket which exists today I suppose.

    • And who would they put on this ‘expert panel’? Dr demography Liz Allen? Bernard Salt? This is fake and disgraceful policy by Labor. A slimy attempt to avoid actually putting a political position forward.

      A solution to this won’t come from these idiots. 10% of the workforce is currently employed in construction (a crazy high figure) The end of the Construction boom (which is already happening) will spike unemployment and see a reduction in immigration anyway.

    • That’s the first one I read from the list. It is really good. His observations about Costco were the cherry on top.

    • Yeah great article.

      On the communication and leadership front, I came to the GSB knowing I was not good and hoped to get better. My favorite class was called “Interpersonal Dynamics” or, as students referred to it, “Touchy Feely.” In “Touchy Feely,” students get very candid feedback on how their words and actions affect others in a small group that meets several hours per week for a whole quarter.

      We talked about microaggressions and feelings and empathy and listening. Sometimes in class the professor would say things to me like “Puzhong, when Mary said that, I could see you were really feeling something,” or “Puzhong, I could see in your eyes that Peter’s story affected you.” And I would tell them I didn’t feel anything. I was quite confused.

      Big LOLs..

  17. Lifted a loose tile in the bathroom, bought some bedding mix and relaid it. Quite satisfying, been avoiding it since I’m renting and why fix the landlord’s asset. Regardless it felt good this office worked getting hair hands just the little bit dirty. Is this what I’ve been missing out on?
    Fuck you Neoliberalism.
    Fuck you RBA.
    Fuck you baby boomers.
    All I want is to participate in some home improvement labour, that has some impact on the asset I own and to be a participant in the bunnings led rampant consumerism.
    All reasonable aspirations, I thought at least.

    • Good one Howser… I do a bit of the same, and extra gardening too. I enjoy it and rationalise it because I then point such things out to the agent during rental inspections … landlord has suggested no rent increases throughout tenancy and agreed to upgrade curtains, door locks and other fittings… I figure it pays off.

      I too think it would be better if it’s your own place… but then I chat to the plumber that comes in three times a year too eel out the old cracked ceramic pipes, the engineer bloke that is in to fix the wall cracking (oh so that reno weakened a load bearing wall?!!) and the electrician that had to rewire several roof lights… and am bloody glad I’m not paying for that.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Maybe you can convince your landlord to cut your rent in return for laying off the chicken tikka masala?

    • I have fixed several things around the place, always doing the lawn / mowing upkeep on a 620sqm block of land and spent ages cleaning out the garage that had years of old rubbish stored in it. (Several hard waste collections later it’s all gone). But the landlord constantly puts the rent up and always does half arsed repairs. Not only that but he was creepy and suggestive to my partner when he came around when I was away for work (sleezy old Italian man – never ceases to amaze me they try it on).

      So now we just resent him and only stay because the rent is cheapish (but in fairness you couldn’t ask for a place with no inbuilt heating or air-con in summer) and only 2 bedrooms and a massive yard to upkeep. But the main reason we really stay is the dog. It’s tough when you have a dog to find a rental.

      He is a text book example of what you don’t do if you want to retain your tenants and keep them happy. If I’m ever a landlord and frankly the idea does not appeal much. Then I’ll invest in keeping the place nice and tenants happy so they stay put. I am a serious advocate of renters rights and reformation in this country.

      • Yep. A good tenant is as much a part of the asset as a good property.

        Just think how sweet it will be when you finally tell him to go and get stuffed.

      • I’m hanging out for it mate. It’s part of the reason I’m tempted to jump into a house now. Even though I should probably wait another 12 months. Would feel good to be unshackled from him and Sydney to be honest.

    • He was a dreadful choice for a Ministerial position. The Rolex fiasco showed how dodgy he is.

    • The people you hang with is a reflection of your character. Confirms my suspicions about Morrison when you have henchmen like Roberts.

    • There are some new units for sale in Mahoneys Road Forest Hill (Vic). On Saturday morning a couple of overdressed real estate types were standing on the footpath like $20 hookers (pardon the pun) surrounded by signs and banners and holding bundles of glossy brochures.

      Never seen this sort of thing before. I almost felt pity.

      • Did drive past that area recently with a friend who told me that the units nearby on Canterbury Rd near Forest Hill Chase have been advertised “for-sale” for some years, so I can’t see there being a lot of interest in these new units.

      • Never seen this sort of thing before. I almost felt pity.

        Whenever you’re tempted to feel pity, just remember how they treated you at rental inspections or when trying to do a deal on a property etc.. They deserve all the pain they get.

      • @reusa

        Times are hard. $20 goes a long way in these parts now. You should swing past sometime and experience the value.

  18. i just got $221 in a single week

    2210 individual items of trash recycled by me

    im so tired and my arms are sore from sticking them in the machine

    also i smell funny (i mean funnier than usual)

    • You might be curious to know stagmal that not long ago about an animal behavioral study conducted with crows.

      So this guy out of NYC builds a machine that sorta looks like a pokie machine in size and shape, but is just metal plate, with one opening to a tray at the bottom. So he programs it to dependence a food pellet every so often, some local crows notice this and start taking advantage of the easy food source. After a bit he changes it up by inducing a coin slot and a small dish of coins, with the intent of seeing if the crows discover by putting the coin in the slot a food pellet will pop out – which they do. Next he takes away the dish of coins to see how the crows will respond.

      By this time the number of crows had swelled to a large population. Anywho the crows went out and scavenged coins from across the city like some gigantic vacuum, blown away at the amount of coins this experiment produced.

      Aside…. then some are confused about MMT.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Have you done the maths yet on what the pay-back period would be for building and operating a can manufacturing machine of your own?

      Better yet… cut out all the middle people and look into buying empty cans from one of the manufacturers? There must be someone semi-independent from Amatil et al around you can source them from.

      PS great job. Good for you, great for the environment. Not so good for your significant other/s though.

    • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

      Stagsy…

      That is some impressive stats.. my best week is about $120 .. but most weeks I do around $60-$100.

      Since December 1 last year I have earned about $2.7k .. so averaging around $250-$300 per week.

      I look for forward to Yellow bin night.

      $221 in one week .. is some serious bin chicken work!!!

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Student? For-profit-environmentalist? Spare-capacity? OAP? Some of the above?

        Curious (but not in that way harry).

  19. ALP doubling down on the NG policy on Insiders. Good to see, I really thought they would dump this at the first cry of panic in the RE sector and also given that the next election is theirs to lose.

    I do wonder what happens post houseageddon though.

    • Quite possible that ALP wants the bust to gather as much speed as possible before the election so every bit of scare mongering helps

      • I am sure it does, but scaremongering is one thing, sticking your neck out is another.

        As this crisis takes hold in the run up to Christmas, you are going to have banks saying it is not our fault because we have been told to lend less, so the Government needs to fix the problem, the RE sector saying that there is a crisis and changes to NG are now out of the question, over-stressed IP and OO owners trapped in negative equity or facing loss of deposits and litigation over failed OTP deals, developers saying it is a disaster and so on.

        Option 1 is to just stand back and hope that it is is as swift and as painful as possible and helpfully point out that it all happened on the Coalition watch but ensure you remain blameless. Option 2 is to promise to wind back NG and risk copping flack for making a crisis worse?

        If I were going to get rid of NG, I would do it when the clearance rates were closer to 80% than 40%????

        For the record I support the ALP’s policy, it just seems so risky to them politically.

    • As a quasi protectorate of America for sometime, one would think its prudent. I mean neoliberalism as a dominate socioeconomic template was issued from the sage economists in America, not to mention all the other nationality’s that went there for schooling only to return home. That’s not to mention the export of cultural behavior through media… don’t you think so buddy [tm].

  20. “[Globalists] puts to rest the idea that ‘neoliberal’ lacks a clear referent. As Slobodian meticulously documents, the term has been used since the 1920s by a distinct group of thinkers and policymakers who are unified both by a shared political vision and a web of personal and professional links… Slobodian definitively establishes the existence of neoliberalism as a coherent intellectual project—one that, at the very least, has been well represented in the circles of power… One of Slobodian’s great insights is that the neoliberal program was not simply a move in the distributional fight, but rather about establishing a social order in which distribution was not a political question at all. For money and markets to be the central organizing principle of society, they have to appear natural—beyond the reach of politics… Slobodian has written the definitive history of neoliberalism as a political project.”—J. W. Mason, Boston Review

    “Imagine a novel and interesting coverage of the post-war Austrian School, here relabeled the ‘Geneva School,’ a well-done partial history of the WTO and EU, and a book where the central characters are not only Mises and Hayek, but also Alexander Rüstow, Wilhelm Röpke, and Michael Heilperin.”—Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution

    “[Globalists] is important because it provides a new frame for the history of this movement. For Slobodian, the earliest and most authentic brand of neoliberalism was from the outset defined by its preoccupation with the question of world economic integration and disintegration… Slobodian gives us not only a new history of neoliberalism but a far more diverse image of global policy debates after 1945… It is a measure of the success of this fascinating, innovative history that it forces the question: after Slobodian’s reinterpretation, where does the critique of neoliberalism stand? First and foremost, Slobodian has underlined the profound conservatism of the first generation of neoliberals and their fundamental hostility to democracy.”—Adam Tooze, Dissent

    “[A] fantastic intellectual history of neo-liberalism in the international arena… Slobodian’s book is excellent history… It offers a fresh and exciting new vantage point on an important set of global developments, drawing on important and under-utilized archival resources. It also implicitly pushes back at the romanticism of ideas that is core to the standard story of neo-liberalism.”—Henry Farrell, Crooked Timber

    “[A] fascinating book… [Slobodian] writes with elegance and clarity.”—Deirdre Nansen McCloskey, Literary Review

    http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674979529&content=reviews

    Heh… even Deirdre Nansen McCloskey, now there is a thing….

  21. Mystic MedusaMEMBER

    That financialization of London article in the links is incredible – so much of it could apply to Sydney. Has anyone read the book that the article is excerpted from?

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      No I havent but I may well buy it. A mate in London referred me to the article knowing my views.

      The actual idea that finance eventual sets off on the road to consuming whole societies and economies for me has its genesis in what is known as Monopoly Capitalism. Marx certainly identified the propensity of capital to consume itself – guys like Sweevy and Baran, Harry Magdoff and John Bellamy Foster have explored it much further. I would recommend the latters ‘The Endless Crisis’ as going over the basic themes and applying it to what we see today.

      As I replied to him I tend to the view it would not just be London (or to some extent New York, which is also sometimes held up as a classic case study of financialisation) but arguably most of the ‘Western’ world – and certainly the English speaking parts of it. The Americans, the Brits, the Kiwi’s Canadians and us, as well as the Paddies have all – to a greater or lesser extent – sold out their punters to global capital by becoming offshore domiciles for corruption proceeds, and in the process managed to trash their legal systems, their education systems, their immigration settings, and their politicians respect from their electorates, while hollowing out all export competing sectors except financialisation and resources. They all have major real estate price issues and are all mired in ‘team red’ versus ‘team blue’ politics amounting to a one party neo liberal state as far as policies affecting the people on the ground are concerned, and all cemented into place with heavy immigration programs.

      All have pissed off electorates as a result.

      • Mystic MedusaMEMBER

        Amazing summation, thank you. Jeremy Corbyn is the only mainstream politician I can think of who would be even willing to take this to the public or discuss it. Are there any others you know of? As an aside, I was looking at a glossy magazine recently and I could not believe the frame of reference; the way in which it discussed “must have wardrobe pieces” (at several thousand each), “your next holiday destination and the clothes you will need for it” and the profiles of socialites. It was like another planet. It seems like a whole phalanx of media is simply in thrall to this world.

  22. Auction Action is back – Auction Action: How crook is the housing market?

    Doesn’t time fly.

    It has been over 2 years since the last “Auction Action” on the Glass Pyramid.

    In June 2016 the property markets was bubbling away furiously as noted by Auction Action: Big Bubbles? No trouble!

    Back in the winter of 2016 the RBA had been chopping up interest rates like dry tinder and feeding them to the property market bonfire. Plus APRA had been doing a fantastic impersonation of ‘Silent Bob’ by not asking too many questions about the approach taken by our banks to credit approval. Foreign investors were flying in to buy up residential property by the armful and everything was just peaches and cream as those with a foot on the property ladder watched their ‘paper wealth’ rocket. All the ‘right people’ were getting ahead of the crowd and Mr Scott Morrison thought it was just fantastic. Praise be.

    https://theglass-pyramid.com/2018/10/07/auction-action-how-crook-is-the-housing-market/

      • A few weeks ago up in the mountains there were tumbleweeds at the inspections. Houses we looked at late last years are still on the market.

        Though I can understand why the real estate agents are telling people that the downturn is only temporary.

        The RBA, APRA and the Government have been driving house prices through the roof since 2013. That was over 5 years ago and the whole time people were saying it was insane to be driving up the prices of houses in Sydney and Melbourne with cheap debt.

        The whole time we have clowns from the RBA giving speeches telling everyone there was no problem and everything was just fine.

        Why wouldn’t the average person believe that is just a matter of time before APRA goes back to sleep and the RBA or the government sprinkles a bit sugar around to get the buyers excited.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Is he actually suggesting that the best investor is the uninformed investor?

        Like out loud saying it. In a “oh, did I say that out loud” way?

        This country needs to burn. After the Opera House advertised hanging of course.

      • Precisely MB. The serious investors need to just get themselves to a so called finance professional and get a mortgage arranged. Then let ponz magic sort out the rest.
        For serving up those gems you too could be Member of the Order of Australia for service to the community in raising awareness of personal finance.

      • Hard to argue with Noel when he is underwriting his advice with an extra 15 million people asap.

        Combine that with the RBA, Treasury and APRA still committed bubble blowers and the only way is up.

      • “Buying well often means that the vendor has a strong need to sell. This could be for a variety of reasons, such as an interstate transfer, financial strife, marital break-up or simply because they have contracted for another home.”

        Picking over the bones of other peoples misfortune. Great plan for building a legacy for future generations.

        Is it any wonder things are so hopeless when Dog Eat Dog is offered up as sound financial advice?

  23. The “VaR Shock” Is Back: Global Bonds Lose $880 Billion In One Week | Zero Hedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-06/var-shock-back-global-bonds-lose-880-billion-one-week

    Markets were in turmoil, S&P futures were locked limit down as traders panicked, the establishment political system was in chaos and global bond portfolios were about to suffer a near record $1.2 trillion in losses in just a few days. … read more via hyperlink above …

  24. #PBOC cut #RRR for banks by 1%, effective from 15 Oct.
    It will release about 1.2tn yuan liquidity, including 450bn yuan to be used to repay MLF coming due on 15 Oct.

    More stimulus… Desperate stimulus

  25. https://www.afr.com/real-estate/the-housing-downturn-is-only-temporary-say-real-estate-agents-20181007-h16bez

    ” Real estate agents in weaker suburbs in Sydney are telling potential buyers at auctions the housing downturn is “only temporary”, urging them to buy while the market is subdued.

    A potential buyer told The Australian Financial Review he went to Blacktown and South Windsor in Sydney’s west on Saturday to shop for housing deals for an investment hoping to score discounts. He found himself alone at two of the properties he inspected.

    “The agent at a five-bedroom property at Andre Place, in Blacktown, said they had set records previously in the area and that any bad news was all caused by media and we had to ‘fight them’,” he said. “

  26. The Traveling Wilbur

    Could, and I cannot believe I’m doing this (seriously), we all just lay-off ScoMo’s belief system a bit?

    It was OK with I’mKeeping TheBarnDoorOpen as he painted an entire sailing ship full of canvasses of family values. While simultaneously (as we found out later) pissing over all of them.

    Now I don’t have an imaginary friend myself, but I respect people​ who sincerely holds such beliefs – and whatever you want to say about ScoMo (or Frydenburger) they, as far as we can tell, are sincere in theirs.

    Now if there’s something I’m missing (like money for Catholic schools, but that’s just the LNP?) – please, enlightenment me [sic] so I don’t have to censor myself.

    It just seems a bit rough to kick him in that particular spot when that’s one thing he’s currently faultles(?) in respect to.

    Unless… It’s because he’s white, in’it? (with apologies to Lenny Henry). And none to Serena Williams.

    • Now I don’t have an imaginary friend myself, but I respect people​ who sincerely holds such beliefs – and whatever you want to say about ScoMo (or Frydenburger) they, as far as we can tell, are sincere in theirs.

      Why ? They’re basically people who, when faced with a difficult (or, heck, often even easy) moral decision, absolve themselves of the responsibility of making it so they can point to their imaginary friend and say something along the lines of “he told me to do it”.

      If his beliefs are what drive his actions, I don’t understand why criticising said beliefs is off limits. Rigid and faithful adherence to a set of bad ideas designed primarily to get you ahead at the cost of others is not something that should be respected.

      Now, if he were being faithful to a bunch of good ideas that actually required some level of personal sacrifice to benefits others, that might be something worth a bit of respect.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        That’s exactly where “sincerely” comes into it for me. The doing ‘bad’ things and justifying them via scripture thingy has never appealed to me. Fortunately the majority of imaginary-frienders I know / know of, including many scientists, aren’t like that. At least not in public. And certainly no more than the rest of us.

        Now… if we’re going to evaluate these ideas on the basis of whether the philosophy the religion is based on makes sense or is rational as I’m thinking I should infer from your comment, then there are far more urgent targets where your attentions would be warranted.

        Like the Collingwood Footbal Club membership and the Young Conservatives. I’d start there before giving Buhdists, Jedis and Furries a hard time over a philosophy of bad ideas.

      • It’s less about whether or not the variant of the religion is rational, but what principles it has cherry-picked and is promoting.

        Helen Razer (I think it was) wrote a piece on this in the last few weeks, but I’m struggling to find it again.

        There are some very noble principles in Christianity. There are some variants that downplay, if not entirely ignore, those principles. Those are what I mean by “bad ideas”.

        For example, if someone is cherry picking the bits of Christianity that allow them to rage against gay marriage, while ignoring all the bits of it that say it’s none of their business, then I don’t see any reason why that “sincere” belief should not be challenged and criticised. There’s nothing noble about sincerely believing bad ideas, quite the opposite.

        EDIT: Here’s the article I was thinking of. It’s Van Badham not Helen Razer so… YMMV.

        https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/29/the-prosperity-doctrine-and-neoliberal-jesusing-scott-morrison-style

  27. Morrison has clearly decided on a soundbite strategy of endlessly repeating “more tax”.

    Heck, it might even work…..

    • Nah, surveys have shown most Australians are happy to pay tax for services that Labor has pledged to support.

      • Agree, but there’s no accounting for what the average voting idiot and Shorten might do to deliver a Morrison election victory.

    • If that was going to work the government would have got a poll bounce from its individual tax cuts. It received none.
      If that is the best Scummo can do he is sunk sunk sunk

  28. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Gunna …love that picture ………Straya in its formative years ……when everyone wore hats …………now that crowd would be Chinese nationals buying up the 1920’s federation home in her Turramurra…bet Ms Cossington Smith in her most artist moments never foresaw that .

    • According to the book I am reading, at the time of the gold rush the population of Victoria was 8% Chinese.
      (that was pretty interesting too because it wasn’t just the pull of the goldfields, it was the push of the Taiping Revolution as well which was incredibly bloody)(and there’s even more to it than that because the Western sharks were savaging the bloody Chinese corpse at the same time)(which leads inexorably to the current time)(I’m boring myself now).
      I like the picture.

  29. TailorTrashMEMBER

    @JR …..Yes and remnants of those gold rush Chinese are still here …..and are more dinky die than most ( even those who arrived in the 20’s ) ..it’s the Chinese in China buying Turramurra that many in Straya ( including those dinky die Chinese Australians ) have a problem reconciling …….but history moves on …….with conflict in its trail

  30. Can someone tell me why Mitchell Marsh is there? Apart from the fact he is the future Australian captain?