MacroBusiness Chartfest September 1-2, 2018

 

Australia

 

 

 

Australia – Economic Policy Uncertainty

 
Sydney & Melbourne – Auction Clearances

 
Australian GDP

 
Coal Production & Consumption 

 
Electricity Generation

 
Major LNG Plants

 
Implications of Tightening Lending Standards

 
Disposable Income by Decile

 
Loan Rejections

 
Public Satisfaction with the National Direction

 
Tobacco Price Inflation

 
Australian Thermal Coal Price

 
Australian & United States Consumer sentiment

 
Australian Wage Growth by Industry

 
Net Wealth by Decile

 
Petroleum Production & Consumption

 

 

United States & Americas

 

 
Foreign Ownership of US Debt

 
Mobile/Manufactured Homes as Percent of Total Housing

 
Automotive Manufacturing Hourly Earnings – North America

 
Highest Paying Jobs in the US

 
American Beers and the 5 Ultimate Producers

 
US Capex

 
US Cars – where they are made

 
United States – Coal Power Plant Retirements

 
US Brokerage Commissions

 
US Consumer Confidence

 
US Consumer Confidence & Labour Market Perception

 
US Debt by Age Group

 
US Primary Energy Source & Consumption

 
US Annualised Real GDP

 
Consumption of Post Tax Income

 
Major US Exports to China

 
Post Tax Income growth

 
Post Tax Income growth 2

 
Labour Market Participation & Opioid Use

 
US – Median Household Income

 
Pre Tax profits of US Multinationals

 
United States – Poverty & Incarceration

 
US Real Estate

 
Impact of Revoking NAFTA

 
US Real Estate – Chinese Buyers

 
US Staple Food Items – Prices 

 
US Steel Imports

 
US Student Debt

 
US Yield Curve & Recessions

 
US Unemployment

 
US Wages
 
Venezuela Money Supply

 

 

 

Europe

 

 
Unemployment – Central Europe

 

 

Wages – Central Europe

 
Business Investment & Credit

 
Eurozone – Negotiated Wages

 
Eurozone – Negotiated Wages 2

 
Residential Investment – Selected Euro Nations

 
Euro Sovereign Ratings & 10Yrs

 
French Grape Harvest 2018

 
Germany Automobile Production & Manufacturing Sentiment

 
Germany – Budget Balance

 
Germany – Current Account

 
Germany – Renewable Energy

 
Germany – Fiscal Balance

 
Greece – Debt

 
Greece – Depression

 
Eurozone – Inequality

 
Ireland – Immigration

 
Italy – Capital Flows

 
Italy – Public Debt & Interest

 
Russia – Gold Reserves

 

 
Russian Economy in Relation to Europe

 
Turkey – Inflation

 
Turkey & Russia – Consumer Prices

 
United Kingdom – Time Between Recessions

 

 

China & Asia

 

 
China – Bank Lending

 
China – Coal Consumption

 
China – Global Conflict Resolution Efforts

 
China – Economic Growth

 
China – GDP & Energy Consumption

 
China – Internet Users

 
China – Labour Force

 
China – Per Capita Consumption

 
Hong Kong – House Prices & Completions

 
Japan – CPI

 
South China Sea – Crude Oil Flows

 
South Korea – Goods & Services Exports

 

 

Commodities

 

 
Steel & Copper – Shanghai Prices

 
Dalian Iron Ore v Copper

 
Coal Exporters

 
Commodities Per Se – Time to Buy?

 

 

Global Aluminium – China v Rest of World

 
Aluminium – 2018 Production by Region

 

Japan – LNG Imports


 

 

China – LNG Imports

 

 

Australia – Natural Gas Consumption & Production

 
Steelmaking Capacity

 

 

Capital Markets

 

 
China – NPLs

 
Large US Based Multinationals – 2018 Debt Issuance

 
EM Debt to GDP Increases

 
EM Financing Needs

 
EM High Yield Corporate Debt Maturity Schedule

 
Selected EM – Reserves to Short Term Debt

 
Selected Euro 2Yrs

 
Globally Systemically Important Banks

 

 

Selected EM Debt Implosions – Last decade

 

 

US Non Financial Corporate Debt to GDP

 

 

Australian Dollar & Turkish Lira – the last 10 years

 

 

Selected EM Private Foreign Debt

 
South Africa – Fund Flows

 

 

Household & Corporate Debt to GDP – The Greatest Bubbles

 

 

Japan & US Yields

 

 

UST Spreads

 

 

 

Global Macro

 

 

 

OECD – Ageing

 

 

Housing Bubbles – China v Selected Historical International Bubbles

 

 

Cost of Fun – Global Comparison

 

 

Prime Age Employment Ratios – Major Economies

 

 

Emerging Markets & Metals

 

 

Emerging Markets & Global GDP

 

 

Event Risk radar – Next 6 Months

 
House Price Exuberance – Global Comparison (……..and I don’t think they have Australia right)  

 
G12 Population Growth

 
Global Trade

 

 

Global Property & GDP

 
Household Debt to GDP – Selected International
 

 

Central Bank Liquidity

 

 

United States, United Kingdom, Australia – Income Growth

 

 

Global Tariffs

 

 

…and furthermore…

 

 

 

Average Air Quality – Selected Cities

 

 

Average paper Length in Major Economics Journals

 

 

Five Year Cancer Survival Rates – United States

 

 

Letter Distribution in Words – English

 

 

Thoughts About Cookies

 
Miss America Beauty Pageant Viewers

 
The Risks of Alcohol

 
Social Science Types

 
Americans and Easier to Raise

 

 

Why Hackers Hack

 

 

The Peleton and its Effect

Comments

  1. Thank you Gunnamatta, I always enjoy the chartfest with my weekend morning coffee. Is anyone else concerned that Russia is hovering up gold? I also remember reading that Russia are selling their US Treasuries, and that China are building up their gold reserves too.

    • The hubris & stupidity of the Western Economists will ensure that the buying of Gold and selling of Treasuries by the rest of the world will have little to no effect – until it smashes us.

    • https://consortiumnews.com/2018/08/29/back-in-the-great-game-the-revenge-of-eurasian-land-powers/

      Ant – I reckon this is relevant to your question

      Just a bit from it
      “This is China playing a long-distance game of go on steroids, incrementally making the best strategic decisions (allowing for margins of error, of course) to render the opponent powerless as he does not even realize he is under attack.”

      China especially, but also I suspect Russia, is thinking thirty years ahead. We in the West, however, cannot get past the release of dodgy GDP numbers next month!

  2. The 3rd chart, Real GDP per Capita is the chart that above all tells us we are in a complete debt fueled bubble. Negative growth, multi-decade lows. Married to consumption growth and massive house price growth…….KAAABOOOOOM!!

    • Nah!!! I looked at that and thought ‘what a load of BS! Our situation is waaaay more dire than that!’
      GDP as any sort of important economic measure is such a croc!

  3. Still no debt issuance by large US multinationals this year.

    Must not be as profitable to claim interest expense onshore to take profits offshore. Wonder why, lol. Guerrilla economic warfare never stops. Corporatocracy has no opposition with open borders.

  4. The above US real estate graph doesn’t seem to show much correlation between number of homes for sale & price appreciation (blue & green lines), we are always told lack of supply causes prices to rise. Or am I being particularly dumb today? (I’m firmly in the camp that access to credit is a primary driver … but even so I would have expected some correlation, other than during the GFC.
    This one: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/usrealestate.jpg

    • we are always told lack of supply causes prices to rise.

      No. Lack of supply makes price flip from “cost of production” to “buying power of strongest loser”

      Take the example of a brand new Ford Focus. There is no lack of supply. Its price is determined by the cost of production.
      Take the example of a vintage 1970 Ford Falcon (perhaps the GTHO). There is complete lack of new supply. Its price is whatever you have to pay to outbid the next guy at the auction. Its price is the “buying power of strongest loser”.

      lack of supply causes prices to rise

      No. Prices can actually fall during a worsening shortage. Consider a terrible earthquake that smashes houses, crushes cars and cuts off all food and fuel supplies. Although all the items are now in greater shortage you would probably find that food and fuel rises in price while lodging and cars actually fall as desperate people sell what they can to buy what they need. A hungry person might actually sell their car for less than the cost of production in order to buy food.

      During shortage price is the “buying power of strongest loser”.

      am I being particularly dumb today?
      You are being dumb regarding shortage and price. But it is quite common, if that makes you feel better.

      I’m firmly in the camp that access to credit is a primary driver

      “Primary driver” is a very poor term to use regarding house prices. In a complex situation it is very bad to start using statistics to seek out a “primary driver”. Far better to apply your brain to understand the situation, then check if the statistics correlate with your common sense.

      Most housing markets in Australia are in shortage and house price = “buying power of strongest loser” in that area.

      Very few housing markets in Australia are in abundance and house price = “cost of production” in that area. Cobar is an example. And I suspect some unit markets will soon be there, or may be there already.

      If you take the 99% of Australia that is in shortage, you will indeed find a strong correlation between access to credit and house prices. This is because, when it comes to Australian houses the buying power of most strongest losers is determined by their access to credit. Most people buy a house with a mortage, not with cash.

      If govt passed a law that all houses must be paid for with cash, you would find that the house prices IN THE SHORTAGE AREAS would soon adjust to the amount of cash held by the losing bidders at auction.
      Of course in the abundant areas like Cobar, price would remain at cost of production.

      • Thanks guys. I agree with most of what you said, but still surprised it doesn’t show a stronger correlation. Can’t think about it too much now, gotta go fire up the BBQ.

      • Thanks Claw – Spot on. There’s waaaay too much simplistic straight line ‘analysis’ goes on in these pages.

  5. Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

    Germany produces 6% of its power from solar and Australia 2%. I guess they do have a competitive advantage for at least 3 months of the year….

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      The really really sad thing is that I can recall one particular University lecture back in the 1980s where we were addressed by one of the honchos from CSIRO, who I recall stating ‘we have the technology now in Australia to be able to generate a lot of energy straight from the sun, and we are working on storage.’ while also noting that (at that time) Australia and Israel were leaders in the technology. I would wager good money the Israelis have made ten times the progress on solar that we have.

      ….and can I just add that Australia would be a much much better place if Lenny Hayes was PM

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Wasn’t there word of a new comments section on the way?

      The new donk might not be fitting into the engine bay.

      • Oh! Thats’s a relief as I thought I’d broken it editing resist fingerprint in about:config in Firefox on new phone!

  6. That German energy output graph unsure; I think it was generation capacity, not power actually generated. A bit misleading… given their recent CO2 increase in output! Solar at those latitudes, come on!!

    On purpose???? Silly, such a great job as per usual.