What happens when PM Property Council loses Wentworth?

Fresh news:

John Hewson is succinct:

Former Prime Minister John Hewson is back in parliament to present the ‘Climate of the Nation’ research report that surveys Australians about their attitudes to climate change. Hewson says he’s disappointed that the government has officially ditched the NEG as climate policy, instead focusing solely on power prices and that the government will find out at the ballot box that attitudes have shifted.

Former PM? But he’s right. I think they’re going to lose it. The Wagga backlash was huge and it is going to be worse in Malcolm Turnbull’s own seat. Labor could easily win it. An independent is a certain victor. But don’t ask me, ask them:

A poll of 400 voters conducted for would-be Liberal candidate Peter King put the party’s support at 36 per cent, Labor at 29 per cent, Greens at 16 per cent and an unidentified independent at 18 per cent.

After allocating preferences, the poll put Liberal support at 47 per cent and Labor support at 53 per cent, a remarkable situation for what was estimated to be the Coalition’s eighth-safest seat based on the last election and recent boundary changes.

That will leave the Property Council PM with a minority government with 74 seats versus 76 for Labor and cross-benches. To survive a no-confidence motion it would need two independents to join it. Cathy McGowan will. Then the government would need to win over one of:

  • Rebekhah Sharkie
  • Adam Bandt
  • Andrew Wilkie
  • Bob Katter

What’s Bastard Bob going to ask for?

Immigration cuts…

Comments

  1. Andrew Wilkie is obsessed with pokies and nothing else.

    Adam Bandt will probably refuse to demand UBI.

    Hopefully Bob Katter demands immigration cuts – unlike Hanson and Winston Peters (why has immigration into NZ not been cut!)

    • Andrew Wilkie is also obsessed with integrity in government (or lack of it) – and having a functional federal process to investigate corruption. The FIRE-population Ponzi should be first cab off the rank if the RC is extended. Pokies are symbolic of a wider scam where government generates revenue and allows monopoly interests to run riot. It is the platinum edged game of mates.

      Things will get interesting if Wentworth spits the dummy.

  2. Every time I see Bob Katter on TV, he speaks in a weird strangled maniacal enraged tone as though he can barely spit the words out through a fit of apoplexy. Whether it’s true or not, the impression he gives in his public speaking (at least to me) is that he’s quite deranged and barely holding it together. If we’re relying on him to introduce some common sense into the immigration goatrummage, then Flying Spaghetti Monster help us all.

      • Depends on the time line…..they won’t lose supply and will need distraction and placation in equal parts for who knows whom. Just a few insincere promises need to be made while they wait for something to turn up.


    • “What’s Bastard Bob going to ask for?

      Immigration cuts…”

      I kind of doubt he’s going to press hard for the immigration cuts, if only because it’s difficult to pin down exactly what his priorities are.

      Still, if HnH keeps nominating people who are gunna cut immigration as soon as they get their hand on the wheel, eventually one of them will.

    • “Just don’t ask him about his Lebanese grandfather”
      Classic lefty strawman, he is not against immigration, he is against the _current_rate_of_ immigration. Just because somebody is an immigrant or child (or grandchild) of immigrants does not mean that person cannot argue that the current immigration rate is unsustainable due to lack of infrastructure and other issues.

  3. McGowan and Katter are the only two who do not directly and personally benefit from a complete LNP meltdown. (Katter’s seat is beyond safe and McGowan will want to maintain her justifiable reputation as a sensible independent conservative). So they are the only two motivated to deal.

  4. Philly SlimMEMBER

    Yep – the reason the BCA’s Andrew Bragg pulled out was the polling. No glory in leading the liberal ticket to the first loss in Wentworth.

    I’m in Wentworth and was a member of one of the liberal branches in the seat. Lots of regular liberal voters will take their anger out on the party for their treatment of Malcolm, a very popular local member.

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