Comments

1. 

   Wiley Wolf August 4, 2018 at 7:10 am

   Gunna good work again: How about that chart on real agricultural prices since 1900
   In the business MAN from snowy river I said farming has been in decline for40 years
   So according to the chart index,40 years ago, the index was say 130, it is now 60.
   There is the issue for farmers. (and no consideration of the increasing severity of droughts)
   So is this $1billion pork barrel gift to farmers to prop up the LNP ???, barnacle??
   BTW where is the Snowy hydro,if 90% odd of NSW is in drought what is going on with the dam levels down there.
   Another pork fiasco
   Like drunken sailors, when this money runs out many will marvel at the stupidity of all.

   • 

     GunnamattaMEMBER August 4, 2018 at 7:54 am

     Morning Wiley,

     I agree that farmers have been looking at sliding prices for a long time, but the canola rapeseed chart to me suggests that if they can get their crop out then the local yellow fields around Geelong might be handy little earners indeed this year.

     For mine there were two charts stand right out (like dog nuts)

     One the Immigration chart with Australia off in lala land when it comes to numbers, and the other the take of the economic pie by the US 1% set (and indeed the global 1% would be much the same)……the Australia cities real estate to median income chart is worth examination too – Phil Soos (from memory) was tweeting that one about.

     The immigrant flows chart right down the bottom also puts Australias immigration issue into a slightly different context

   • 

     ColinMEMBER August 6, 2018 at 10:28 am

     I can verify through my life experience that as a child often crossing the Dalgety river to visit my grandparents that each year the river steadily reduced from a well flowing one for the region, to lower & lower till it was just a sand bed by my late teens. It was due to keeping more water in Jindabyne dam for longer & they starved the river to near death for decades. It’s changed now due to lobbying & there’s a quota that’s agreed to be released to keep the river alive, but it’s still not got the flow I remember. I’ve never looked at rainfall data, but I think it’s safe to say a notable part of it’s due to lower snow/rain fall.

     I also remember a (secret) high powered meeting with all stakeholders being held in the early 90’s regarding what to do Once the snow stops – & Summer themes in Jindabyne became a thing. Snow has varied since then with some lean & some big bumper years & again I haven’t bothered to look for data to confirm any trend.

     Whenever I’ve been outback I’ve been awed on how they manage on they very limited carrying capacity they actually have – wafer thin compared to the Monaro, & even thinner compared to the Bega Valley, but then these relatively more lush area’s don’t compare to places in say NZ for carrying capacity.

     I’ve been to Exmouth a few times over the years & I’ve never seen it looking anything much more than the usual outback barren (to my eye). But right now they have more grass than they can handle – fat cows in the outback! So they have good & bad years too – it does come back, & quickly without flooding amounts of rain.

     You’re right to be concerned Wiley & maybe there has to be some kind of determination for what’s a write off, what’s marginal, & what’s supportable over the long term? Personally I’d like to see a root & branch review of every tentacle coming in & out of our taxation/subsidy system to see just what is appropriate for each sector, corporate, individual, any way they can cut it. Slice it, dice it & really get some transparency & a plan together, instead of herding mangy alley cats that look shadowy. I have a suspicion like in the automotive industry that there’s bigger sucubus’s out there. MB’s pointed out a few over the years……

2. 

   Simon August 4, 2018 at 8:42 am

   Household debt to income chart. What are the Germans doing with their wealth? I remember in the mid-90s news reports that Australians were the highest investors (per capita?) in the stock market. My how times and tax incentives (50% CGT discount) have changed.
   I’m open to silly answers to this question too, it’s Saturday, get creative.

3. 

   doctorX August 4, 2018 at 9:00 am

   Apartment constitution numbers are interesting. 50k new units in sydney is more than combine number for5 largest US cities with population of 70m and population growth of 1m. And the construction rate of 1000 per 100000 in Sydney is 7 times bigger than SF and silicon valley.
   And people say here prices are high because of shortage

   • 

     The Claw August 4, 2018 at 10:46 pm

     A shortage of decent housing has been a key factor in high prices. This shortage has built up over several decades. Your figures only look at the most recent year and hence are worthless for that reason.
     Also you refer to 50k units. Units are not decent houses compared to previous generations and existing community standards.
     Get real and acknowledge the shortage.

4. 

   Researchtime August 4, 2018 at 12:23 pm

   Great work – love the farming slant, and some of those commodity graphs worth a second look too….

5. 

   Researchtime August 4, 2018 at 12:23 pm

   Whatever you think about his views, this is a travesty of justice. Hard to believe its the UK today!
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=349&v=Vw5thzrW930

6. 

   FiftiesFibroShack August 4, 2018 at 4:50 pm

   Good stuff.

7. 

   steveMEMBER August 4, 2018 at 7:40 pm

   So domain.com August 4 auction results out a bit earlier than usual on Saturday evening. The webpage looks a bit different as well. Given a bit of a makeover.

   Headline clearance rate 57%. That seems up a bit.

   But wait a minute. Something is missing this week……. The number of auctions reported.

   So total auctions = 378
   Reported auctions were 194. This means only slightly more than half the total were reported. Much lower than usual percentage reported – and presumably the reason this crucial figure has been removed from the data this week.
   Clearance rate of this paltry 194 was 57%.

   Just imagine how disastrous things would be if the total 378 were included.

8. 

   Super Phoenix August 6, 2018 at 10:45 am

   Thanks Gunna.

9. 

   Mediocritas August 6, 2018 at 11:58 am

   Wow, I had no idea that Weyerhaeuser controlled so much land in the US. I also didn’t know that it converted to a REIT in 2010 and therefore no longer has to pay any federal income tax.

   Also, if anyone wants to follow up on the “wage gap” chart, I’ve read the study and you can find it here. Well worth a look.

   https://www.henrikkleven.com/uploads/3/7/3/1/37310663/kleven-landais-sogaard_nber-w24219_jan2018.pdf

   It’s not a “gender wage gap” it’s a “motherhood income penalty” caused by mothers having to devote time to raising kids that they must then subtract from time spent working a career. The primary gap is between mothers and everyone else (including other women who don’t have kids).