It’s amazing watching Australia’s politicians double-down on a ‘Big Australia’ and attempt to treat the symptoms of Australia’s third world population growth, rather than addressing the problem at its source by reducing immigration.
Hours after Prime Minister Scott Morrison deployed his decentralisation smokescreen, the Victorian Government has announced plans for a gigantic rail tunnel loop that would only be viable if Melbourne’s population soars beyond the projected 8 million people mid-century:
A massive, $50 billion, underground suburban rail network will be built, linking every major rail line in Melbourne and the new airport rail, the Victorian government has pledged.
Billed as “the biggest public transport project in Australian history”, the Suburban Rail Loop will connect key train lines from Frankston to Werribee…
Premier Daniel Andrews told Triple M radio the government had been working on what he termed the “ring rail” for the past 12 months.
Victorian executive director of the Property Council of Australia Matthew Kandelaars said the government must engage with industry early to “ensure the benefits of this project are maximised”.
“The property industry is ready, willing and able to assist,” he said.
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$50 billion for 90 kilometres of track, mostly tunnelled, is crazy optimistic. The 9 kilometre Metro Rail tunnel is budgeted to cost $10.9 billion. Therefore, this project would more than likely cost well over $100 billion. Nor can it be done off balance sheet given it will never make money.
Blind Freddy can see that Australians are vigorously opposed to mass immigration, which is the primary source of Melbourne’s rapid growth. Heck, we just lost another Prime Minister over the issue. The Federal Government’s decentralisation policy also intends to shift immigrants away from both Sydney and Melbourne into the regions.
Either way, it’s highly unlikely that Melbourne’s population will be allowed to grow to the projected 8 million mid-century, leaving this project as an expensive, under-utilised stranded asset. Where is the coordination and risk assessment by the Victorian Government pertaining to these risks?
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Instead of addressing Australia’s infrastructure problems at its source – but slashing immigration back to sustainable historical norms – we have Australia’s federal and state governments launching policy band-aides on top of band-aides.
This pre-election big picture drivel by the Victorian Labor Government is clearly aimed at appeasing voters’ concerns about excessive population growth and giving the appearance that the Government has the situation under control. It is yet another immigration smokescreen.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
