Links 9 August 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:






  1. Hydrogen fuel breakthrough in Queensland could fire up massive new export market

    No, it will fire up demands to import “hydrogen experts” from 3rd world slums.

    • Haha Electric is the winner no doubt. Hydrogen has all the same drawbacks as fuel, being an internal combustion motor etc.. parts wear out, where as electric is simpler and hasess parts causing friction and wear.

      Funny but Mazda’s rotary motor was ideal on hydrogen .
      Because it has no valves to get super hot. But it doesn’t make as much power as gasoline.

  2. … New Zealand …

    … Are the legal risks of high multiple lending just too great ? …

    ANZ (Bank) to become first bank in NZ to stop incentivising frontline retail staff with sales targets, acknowledging the ‘environment is clearly changing’ |

    ANZ is to become the first bank in New Zealand to remove all sales incentives for its frontline retail sales staff.

    The 25% slice of frontline staffs’ “scorecards” attributed to sales, will be done away with on October 1.

    ANZ’s managing director of retail and business, Antonia Watson, says retail staff will still be incentivised around good customer service and other aspects of banking such as product knowledge but there will be no sales component.

    The bank’s move follows a change in the composition of these scorecards last year. … read more via hyperlink above …


    The unweighted average median multiples of its metros in 2007 was 4.7, which crashed to 2.8 in subsequent years … putting all its Banks to the wall and requiring bailouts of in excess of 70 billion euro … about $NZ109 billion.

    Currently the average Median Multiples for the Australian and New Zealand metros overall are about 5.9 and 5.8 respectively … refer …

    Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: All Editions

    Research post – 2007 by the Central Bank of Ireland found high lending multipoles was the greatest problem (more so than loan to value ratios) … and subsequently imposed a general mortgage cap of 3.5 times annual household income.

    A year earlier the Bank of England had capped at 4.5 times annual household income …

    Mortgage Measures | Central Bank of Ireland
    … access extensive background research via link …

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      $200K loss on your property value living next door to him…. Hit man for $100K and you’re up. Gutsy effort to claim the expense on your tax return.

  3. St JacquesMEMBER

    WW, yesterday you brought up the credibility issue with PAA, registered in Perth and all that, a very good question, and on which I spent no small amount of time considering when investing. So here’s some quick answers:
    1. The discovery of monepantel’s (MPL’s) effect on cancer tumours was not a liquid lunch discovery on St George’s Terrace; the discovery was made at and is owned by the University of NSW, with whom PAA have an agreement to develop into an approved, marketable drug. In the event of PAA failing that, the IP and knowledge accumulated will go back to the UNSW for re-assignment.
    2. Key people on the board have invested substantial amounts of their own cash in the shares, even as they have gone down, down, down.
    3. The problem of MPL’s “palatability”, which in this case means stomach upsets, nausea and vomiting, during the first phase clinical trials at the Royal Adelaide Hospital, is a common occurence and major problem afflicting drug development, particularly cancer as this video shows; This is why I see PAA’s 28th of May announcement as a turning point (provided it’s true, of course).
    4. Scientific papers have been published on MPL’s effects on cancer and the novel mechanism by which it operates, which should allow easy replication by other labs. The titles can be seen here at PAA’s website:
    5. The US farm animal pharma giant Elanco has been in discussions with PAA for several years as a possible manufacturer and distributor of MPL for sale to the vertinarian market, and is going to supply the monopantel for the phase 2 trials. I’m sure they would have conducted their own lab tests and wouldn’t be wasting their time with con artists.
    6. PAA have in their last quarterly statement claimed that they are working with the Olivia Newton-John cancer treatment and research centre in Melbourne and that the Olivia Newton-John lab has independently confirmed the cancer killing power of MPL.

    This is why I reckon PAA is worth a punt, but I think past disappointments due to the then seemingly insurmountable “palatability” issues with MPL, suspicions surrounding any biotech listed in Perth, and a almost complete lack of media interest has meant a total lack of interest from the market. And yes I’m talking my own book, but I hope I’ve presented enough for others to have a good look at PAA. dyr. Cheers.

    • Thanks St J Well done. Mind you if you have an investment in it you better pay me some money to stay out of it!!!! Just my thinking about it might make it sink out of sight!!!

    • SJ
      MAry poppins has your answer, a spoon full of sugar
      Mate. If you have cancer and the taste of the cure is annoying, to the extent you cant swallow the cure
      then you deserve the consequences.
      How much again was your “stake” in this mob??
      Remember an early cure for syphilis was to soak your dick in mercury till it near fell off, that didnt stop punters getting it??

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        It’s not the taste, it’s that it makes you sick and vomit that’s the problem, and this is a serious issue holding back many drugs. The question is have they solved it. And is it a cure? Probably not, just another treatment. Whether or not it’s worth the punt, time will tell.

    • SJ,
      WW is correct to be warning of caution. The theme of shelved miners from Perth resurrecting as the new sexy of the day is very real & the stories around their new clothes always seem very real too. I was caught with a couple of Bio’s in the ramp up into the dotcom bust, always passing the hat around after telling positive stories to disappear in the blink of an eye, & it hurt! Shellco’s from Perth, with brains trust in Melbourne. I decided to cut fast from then on & not to touch much from over there (even though they regard easternstaters as the crooks) & I usually wait till phase 2 is at least a positive if I touch Bio’s at all. FWIW. I hope it comes good for you.

      Also there’s a reason why horse racing programs etc come out of QLD……

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        Thanks Colin, I’m going to need all the luck I can get and hope to see some of my money back. Unfortunately I jumped into this a long time ago when….well, I was not in a good state of mind to put it mildly. The only comfort I can take is that a lot of the people involved, from the discoverer on are absolutely top nofch from top notch institutions. Worth keeping an eye on anyway. Cheers.

  4. @ErmingtonPlumber
    Hi EP if you’re available I’d like your thoughts on residential Water heaters.
    Too be up front and honest with you, I have my own opinions on what is the optimal given solar/PV costs however I keep seeing people especially elderly that are advised by their plumbers to put in the biggest off-peak water heater that will fit. Logic is…you never want to run out of hot water…do you?
    The stupidity of this approach is that these huge water heaters often consume over 7Kwh of electricity per day just to keep the water at regulated temperature. These elderly couples are often only showering once or twice a week and wouldn’t actually even use 7Kwh per week worth of hot water.
    This represents a tremendous waste of energy (and is a huge part of their total carbon footprint) but it’s also a huge and unnecessary expense …all delivered courtesy of their local plumbers best advice.
    Why are local plumbers advising the elderly to buy these over sized Off-peak water heaters when what they really need is a much smaller capacity on-demand water heater?

    Worse still are the Off-peak water heaters with supplemental PV solar, these are normally configured to heat the water each night to the regulated temperature so that in effect it’s only the hot water used during the morning that is replenished with PV solar, if you shower in the evenings than practically all the water heating is actually from Off-Peak electricity. Why are plumbers configuring these systems like this?
    Are there any industry guide lines on how to optimally address water heating options especially wrt total energy footprint?