Iron ore prices for August 13, 2018:
The stimulus party rolls on, largely confined to futures markets. This is still not inconsistent with seasonal patterns, especially so since the Winter shutdowns bring forward demand. Rebar inventories are still falling at a decent clip even if well above last year.
My outlook remains unchanged. Overnight Chinese credit data still shows further demand slowing ahead. The move in steel and ferrous markets is premature in terms of stimulus impacts so I’m happy to see it as simple seasonal strength. Q4 is still shaping as the reverse of that.
