Weekend Chartfest: 28-29 July 2018

Australia

 

 

 

Australia – Dwelling Prices – Expected v Actuals

 

 

Australia – Graduate Visas

 

 

Australia – Core Inflation

 

 

Australia & New Zealand House Prices and Global Equities

 

 

Australia – Employment Growth

 

 

Australia -Underlying CPI

 

 

Australia – Unemployment & Participation

 

 

Australia – Loans & Interest Only Loans

 

 

Australia – Superannuation Fees & Energy Bills

 

 

Sydney – Decline from peak to May 2018 by Region

 

 

Australia – Income Tax Outlays 

 

 

United States – Americas

 

 

 

Canada GDP

 

 

Canada Steel & Aluminium Exports to United States

 

 

United States – Gun related deaths and suicides by race

 

 

United States border apprehensions by country of origin

 

 

United States – multiple jobs by ethnicity & sex

 

 

United States & Canada – Household Credit Market Debt

 

 

United States Imports from China exposed to Potential Trump Tariffs

 

 

United States – Federal Receipts

 

 

United States – Aging population and some Implications

 

 

United States – Corporate Tax Receipts

 

 

United States – Disposable Income and Consumption

 

 

United States – Fiscal Stimulus

 

 

United States – GDP

 

 

United States – 2Q 2018 GDP composition

 

 

United States – House Prices by Region

 

 

United States – House Prices

 

 

United States – Industrial Engine Exports

 

 

United States – Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation

 

 

United States – Unemployment, Employment Ratio, Participation

 

 

United States – Job Openings and Initial Jobless

 

 

United States – Profits & Wages

 

 

United States – Unemployed, Incarcerated & Out of Labor Force Men by Race

 

 

United States – Manufacturing & Non Manufacturing Jobs and Industrial Production

 

 

United States – Median Household Income

 

 

United States – Police Homicides by Region 

 

 

United States – Major Welfare Programs & Enrolled Population

 

 

United States – GDP Productivity & Wages

 

 

United States – GDP Contribution

 

 

United States – Real Wage Growth

 

 

United States – Ratio of Democratic to Republican votes per seat gained in US House of Representatives 

 

 

United States – Student Loan Defaults

 

 

United States – Estimated job impacts of Trump tariffs by sector

 

 

China – Asia

 

 

 

Japan & Korea – Fertility Rates

 

 

China – Fixed Asset Investment

 

 

China GDP

 

 

China GDP Composition

 

 

China iron ore – Imports & Production

 

 

China Manufacturing

 

 

China Merchandise Exports as GDP by Province

 

 

China Property Leverage

 

 

China Net Migrant Inflows by Province

 

 

China Banks RRR

 

 

China Unemployment & Wages

 

 

Vietnam Dong USD Exchange & FX Reserves

 

 

Vietnam Current Account

 

 

India Female Workers by Education

 

 

China Infrastructure Investment in Pakistan

 

 

Europe

 

 

 

Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Returns

 

 

Eurozone – Government debt to GDP

 

 

Real GDP since 2009 – Selected Euro Economies

 

 

EU GDP Growth & Short Term Forecasts

 

 

EU Selected Nations – Merchandise Exports

 

 

EU Unit Labour Costs

 

 

Ireland – Housing Rent

 

 

Russia Net Exports

 

 

Russia & Norway Net Foreign Assets

 

 

United kingdom – Student Debt

 

 

United kingdom – Household Net Balance

 

 

United Kingdom – Multiple Jobs and Unemployment

 

 

Commodities

 

 

 

Shipping Costs per Tonne – West Australia – Qingdao

 

 

Soyabeans – Brazil – USA Export Price Spread

 

 

Coal Fired Power Generation

 

 

Crude Steel Production

 

 

The Iron Ore Curve

 

 

United States – Meat in Cold storage

 

 

World’s Major Grain Exchanges

 

 

LNG Capacity Major Producers

 

 

New LNG Capacity by Year

 

 

Global Rare Earths Production

 

 

Capital Markets

 

 

 

Bank Profitability – Advanced & Emerging Economies

 

 

Banking System Stability – Advanced & Emerging Economies

 

 

Major Global Central Bank – Assets

 

 

Domestic Ownership of Government Bonds

 

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Construction – OECD, Turkey, Mexico, Poland

 

 

Household Debt to GDP

 

 

Japanese Net Purchases of Bonds

 

 

UK, EU, US – Policy Rates & CPI

 

 

Primary Balance Change 2009-2018 – Selected Nations

 

 

Central Banks – Real Policy Rates

 

 

Global Central Bank Liquidity & US Inflows

 

 

UST Holdings

 

 

US – Fed Balance & FOMC Statement Word Count

 

 

Global Macro

 

 

 

Age Structure & Inflation

 

 

Car Production per Population

 

 

Current Account and NIIP

 

 

Current Account & Government Fiscal Position

 

 

Labour Force participation – 25 – 54

 

 

Global Equity to Bond Ratio & Unemployment

 

 

Fastest growing Economies 2018

 

 

Female Employment

 

 

Exposure to Trade War by GDP – Selected Nations

 

 

Aged Dependency Ratios

 

 

Gini Coefficient – Selected Nations

 

 

Urban Population Density – Selected Cities

 

 

United States Arms Exports

 

 

…and furthermore…

 

 

 

50 million users

 

 

Global Direct CO2 Industrial Emissions

 

 

Newspaper Concentration – Global Comparison

Comments

  1. Paddy Finucane

    Gunna, another fine set of weird and wonderful charts.

    A few questions. First that Australian loans chart has the average mortgage at about 270k, but I thought the average mortgage figure in Oz was maybe 100k more than that. Given Australian dwelling prices I wouldn’t have thought 270k would buy much.

    Second, the chart on the gun deaths and crack in the US. Is that telling me that the bulge in gun deaths was caused by the arrival of crack?

    The the Russia Norway external assets chart. Wasnt it you who told me Russia was unusual in having large volumes of offshore assets, or did I miss something there?

    And finally that last chart is very depressing. It is telling me (I know you have always said this) that Australia’s media is more concentrated and less diverse, than Russia’s. That is really depressing. How do Joe Sixpack Australians get their information about the rest of the world?

    and greetings again from StP. The track in mid summer is ultra quick

    • There a quite a few mortgages kept alive in Australia on paid off homes to save the application fees and process if they ever want to borrow out of their homes. This also makes average LVR’s look better than they really are…hard to get any figures on this.

      I consider this risky in the current environment as the bank still has title and your paid off home could get caught up in any bail out sheme

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Paddy my comments about offshore assets and Russia is that it is the Russian financial system which has (or had) a very significant volume of offshore assets. That was circa 2012-14, and for sure would have been reduced due to financial sanctions and the de dollarisation of the system. But as of recent times I would still say that unlike for example China (where the financial system has maybe 3-5% of its assets offshore) the Russian system would be down from a peak of maybe around 18-20% to maybe 10-12%.

      You have clearly got my idea about Russia and Australia’s media scenes. Russia’s is far more diverse and vibrant.

      Your take on the crack and gun deaths is the same as mine (I was a bit shocked), and I am not 100% sure on that mortgage chart but I have regularly seen other charts (and probably posted them) positing that the average mortgage in Australia is a tad under 400k.

    • The Russia Norway external assets chart is measured in fractions of national income. So if Russia has a massive denominator the percentage will appear small.

  2. Thanks Gunna.

    I think the worst of SLX is behind it. SLX will receive USD$5m in IQE shares in 7 weeks, which together with the existing holding will generate dividend streams. The IQE royalty payments won’t be too far away either.

    I wish MG had offered Global X to buy their 13.5m shares at 19c each, but it didn’t materialize.

  3. Gunnamatta, Leith, MB readers.
    Firstly these charts are always interesting, particularly the USA, Asia & other global perspectives.

    Re Chart 2 – the explosion in foreign student graduates visas. This is just a small part of the explosive growth in in foreign migrant temporary visas onshore.

    The Turnbull Government & others go to great lengths to mask or downplay the number of Temporary Visa holders & illegally working Tourists, with disinformation, partial reporting or trying to shift the debate to fractional visa categories (457 etc) or now a small reduction in PR as ‘proof’ they are doing something.
    .
    But the facts are the overall foreign guestworkers numbers inshore are increasing rapidly – via Temporary Resident Visa (TR) & Tourist Working Illegaly (TWI) numbers.

    For example we often see that there is only 350,000 on ‘international student visas’ in Govt or media information.
    That is often a deliberate lie by omission, not revealing all the visa categories & partners in the foreign student intake.

    There are 624,000 foreign students / partners, incl work rights & visa category detail is below.
    We also see little factual Government or media reporting on the Tourist Working Illegally (TWI) yet they have exploded in these migrant guestworkers onshore in both numbers & impacts.

    624,000 foreign students onshore.

    1. International student visas
    Primary Holder 454,962
    Secondary Holder 56,830
    Total onshore in this visa 511,792
    22,941 or only 5% -of the 454,962 are doing university higher level studies.

    485 Visa (post grad full work rights)
    Primary 41,498
    Secondary 12,084
    Total 53,583
    Many changed their visa category from student visa to 485 to continue their study with full work rights including partners. This is often a 4 + 4 year stay.

    Then add on 58,266 foreign migrants as ‘international students’ who are on other visa categories (visitor, bridging, special purpose, DFAT & other visa).

    The total is 624,000 – reconciling with the Australian Dept Education numbers.

    https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Documents/MONTHLY%20SUMMARIES/2017/Dec%202017%20MonthlyInfographic.pdf

    Country of origin & skills.
    93% are of third world origin and unskilled. The intake is primarily Chinese, Indian, North & East Asian, Nepalese, Pakistani, Middle East, Brazilian.

    The majority as international students are are doing very low level English (ELT) or (VET) as diplomas & certificates. Or else non specialist entry level & segregated university courses.
    Much of which is available in their home country, or online for free.

    OECD benchmark compare.
    Only 5% or 32,000 of the 624,000 onshore would be considered as ‘international students’ in most other OECD countries.

    Skills & economic contribution.
    The pass rate for an ‘international student’ into a high income professional vocation in their home country or Australia was 3.6%. (Migrant Pathways A Decade On : 2016).

    ➡️Fact : 96% of foreign international students fail to add a unique or highly qualified skill or a high income productivity value to our economy in contribution.
    The ABS 2016 data also confirms this. (Migrant pathways & employment 2016 report)

    The PR migrant intake, a very large proportion being TR foreign students’ continue to have higher unemployment, lower incomes & a lower professional status than the Australian born average a decade on.

    The entire foreign student program is riddled top to bottom with foreign criminals & the education industry in migrant fraud, organised crime and racketeering.

    “Oh – but it’s a $28 billion ‘export industry”..you will say.
    Far from it.
    The entire TR Visa intake, including foreign students only bring in $4.5 billion of mostly self declared funds (ABF) and that’s often faked.
    The foreign students form a collective $30 billion underground illegally working sub economy of unskilled migrant guestworkers.
    They only pay $7.8 billion in fees FROM MONEY EARNED HERE, and consume & occupy some 150,000 ex Australian dwellings in migrant sub let slum share in MONEY EARNED HERE.
    They then xfer or send back some $8 billion in Agent Procurer debt repayments of money back to their third world families. FROM MONEY EARNED HERE.
    Negative GDP contribution, plus billions then being spent on Australian unemployed and homeless impacts.
    The foreign students are almost all third world poor migrants / using a student visa alibi to work illegally, secure the PR and to then bring in the rest of their third world burden.
    Most are doing nonsense courses with no international recognition or professional vocation employment outcome. 96% fail to ever get a high income professional vocation in either Australia or their home country exposing what a farce it is.

    After a good cleanup / that leaves about 33,000 genuine fully funded post grad OECD level foreign international students.
    That’s the correction needed.

    🔹Another headline correction on the migrant topic if I may.

    It is the TR & Tourist Visa illegals that are by far the largest impact to Australian society.

    We now have 2.7 million third world unskilled migrants now onshore in Australia on Temporary Visas (TR) or illegally working tourist visas (TWI).

    ➡️That is now onshore and equal to 16 years worth of the current Australian migrant PR intake..

    That 2.7 million TR & TWI number far exceeds the entire last decade of PR intake which was 1.9 million.

    It’s a massive double up plus some, (140% in fact) of additional third world unskilled.

    The grand total combined being some 4.6 million migrants now here onshore & mostly third world unskilled.
    Of which 58% are Temporary Visa or Tourist Visa working illegally !
    86% or more concentration in Sydney or Melbourne.
    Long stay, repeat stay, visa churn & extension & overstay.

    County of origin TR & TVWI.

    • 2.2 million Temporary Visas (DHA July 2018), mostly Chinese then Indian, South & north Asian, Middle East.
    • 440k illegally working Tourist Visas (5% of the 8.8 million tourist visitors – (ABF / DHA parliamentary committee report) mostly Chinese, North & South Asian, Indian, Nepalese, Middle East etc.
    55k overstayers.
    =>2.7 million – 80% are unskilled & third world origin.
    On a wide range of visa pretexts & alibis – as ‘students’’ visitors’, ‘Non NZ born Chinese & Indians coming in via the NZ SCV backdoor (quarter of a million alone), ‘visitors’, illegally working Tourists’ & other visa alibis.

    City Concentration.

    2.2 million Temporary Visa holders (July 2018) with the majority being third world & unskilled.
    1.2 TR million now reside in Sydney.
    0.8 million TR are in Melbourne.
    0.2 million TR elsewhere.

    1.9 million PR & citizen grants in the last decade – also mostly third world unskilled migrants.
    0.9 million PR are in Sydney.
    0.7 million PR are in Melbourne.
    0.3 million are elsewhere. (ABS / DHA 2018)

    440,000 illegally working third world Tourist visitors (ABF est to parliamentary committee 2016 – 5% of the 8.8 million ‘tourist arrivals enter to work illegally) mostly unskilled Chinese, Indian or South East Asian.
    220,00 of these tourist illegals reside in Sydney.
    190,000 in Melbourne.
    50,000 elsewhere.

    55,000 overstayers, also highly concentrated in the third world migrant slum enclaves of
    Sydney (20,000)
    Melbourne (15,000)
    the rest elsewhere. (DHA 2017).

    ➡️The Sydney number of third world unskilled migrant intake is 2.34 million.
    That is 45% of Sydney’s pop of 5.2 million (ABS estimates July 2018) and nearly every 2nd person.
    ➡️A global record.

    The 1.2 million TR migrants alone in Sydney are 23% or nearly 1 in every 4 people in Sydney.

    0.9 mil PR in Sydney are is 17% of the Sydney Population, or 1 in every 6 people.

    And 0.22 million TV working illegally & 20k overstayers are 1 in every 22 people.

    Slightly lower figures & similar ratios for Melbourne.

    All the 2.7 million third world unskilled migrant guestworkers (TR & TVWI) are long stay, very long stay, or repeat & multiple visit.

    They work illegally, paying little or no tax.
    They are the epicentre of foreign criminal run illicit & blackmarket activity.
    They steal Australian jobs (the only reason they are here), and they occupy housing – some 440,000 dwellings nationally. (2.7 million / 6 average migrant guestworker occupants = 450,000 ex Australian dwellings now converted to TR & TVWI migrant guestworkers occupancy.
    Over a quarter of a million dwellings in Sydney alone in migrant sublet cash in hand bunk & mattess share.
    They use public transport, have cars, create congestion and contention. They have debased education, services, living standards, employment, wages, ownership & just about every other facet of our society and living standards.
    The 2.7 million TR & TVWI migrant guestworkers are a massive financial & social impact.

    The ‘migration debate’ needs to shift to the facts and in deal with what needs to be exited.

    ➡️At least 1.5 million TR & TVWI should & can be rapidly exited either on visa breach or not suitable.

    🔻440,000 illegally working tourists exited.
    🔻580,000 of 624,000 fake students & partners to go. It’s corrupted top to bottom, normalise to OECD levels.
    🔻230,000 non NZ born SCV of the 650,000 NZ SCV
    (Aust / NZ SCV being only for NZ or Aust Born).
    🔻250,000 ‘skilled, sponsor, bridging, protection’ fakes

    And a Royal Commission into our entire border control & visa enforcement & then repair.

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    As usual great stuff Gunna …….that Norwegian Sovereign fund return is pretty impressive ….need to get it next to strayas for a Squiz comparison
    …….love the number of years it took took 50 million users to get on to porn hub……….what % of the world are friends of Reusa ?

  5. Great collection as always – the coal generation diagram looks wrong, and contradicts actual consumption number. A reference would have been good…

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Sorry chief, normally I try and make sure there is some sort of reference. That one came via ‘Natural Gas World’ but my only access to the site is through a citrix system which is not currently working due to some sort of system upgrade (people I do work for in the UK).

      Thanks for your supportive comments vis the charts. They will be out for a couple of weeks at least. I need to be in Canberra late next week and late the week after.