Morgan Stanley housing tracker hits record low

Via Morgan Stanley:

Morgan Stanley’s forward-looking housing model – MSHAUS – set a new historical low at -1.0 in the June quarter.

“Credit has tightened further, sentiment is slipping, and additional stock is hitting the market,” said Morgan Stanley strategists Daniel Blake and Chris Nicol.

“While consensus is now bearish on dwelling prices, this model suggests a price floor is still over the horizon.”

The chart:

Houses and Holes


  1. a price floor is still over the horizon.”

    Where is that in relation to over the rainbow?

    • It’s a soft way of saying the floor is not in sight, and we have no idea where we will find it.

      • Or even whether we will live to see it found.

        ‘The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (or alive)’ works in markets moving in both directions.

  2. The world knows what to do to a country with falling land prices. They have experienced the phenomenon first hand. Short the banks and developers, but not yet.

  3. About 2 years ago a colleague of mine, single income no kids 35ish, buys a house in the central coast- in the middle of that frenzy. Then the constant comments begin “when are you buying?” “how is your house hunt going?”, along with the helpful advice. Then about a year ago she tells me she has bought another one. We don’t work in a particularly high paying industry. A month or two ago I ask her how it is going and get a stream of worries about tenants, hot water systems, making payments. Ending with the final fraught joke “Well things have gotta improve soon cause I can’t keep asking dad for money.”

    I don’t have the heart to ask her now how she is going, or how much of her purchasing was done interest only, or if she has used leverage the way that I think she has. Its hard to speak about housing publicly, its easy to forget that these are peoples lives until I am staring at their faces in the office. So I end up usually not speaking honestly or not speaking at all.

      • Rising bubble: Rubs her things in other people’s faces in exchange for schadenfreude.
        Collapsing bubble: Rubs other people’s things in her own face in exchange for money.

        It’s not prostitution if you say #NoPro before you begin.

    • … its easy to forget that these are peoples lives until I am staring at their faces in the office.

      “I see dead dumb debt people…”

    • Don’t be a pu$$y Mark , tell her how it is! She got greedy boxing another family out of home ownership.
      Ask her how much she is in for. Remind her interest rates are going up. Rub it hard , and often so when they go bust they will think twice before doing it again.
      Houses for homes , not investments. ✊

    • Someone better let her know the dirty secret of relations parties.

      The poorly performing property investors are paid to be there by the successful so they can cover their mortgage(s).

    • markjohnstonMEMBER

      Poor lady. I don’t know why people (readers)get angry at someone having a crack.
      Just direct her to this site. Then it’s up to her to show some balls and sell. Then you’ve done your best.

      • arescarti42MEMBER

        I feel sorry for people trying to put a roof over their heads.

        I have zero sympathy for greedy speculators betting on others having to pay more for a fundamental human right, and then whinging when it goes pear shaped.

    • Are you keeping an eye on the register of interests to see if that’s changing? They’ll run for the exits with everyone else when the time comes. Don’t make the fatal mistake of believing these people are competent enough to control this outcome.

    • I see from Gunna’s list in WE Links, young Mr Tehan has 6-7 properties. Not bad for a youngish man on his second marriage who has not worked outside politics. I wonder how much room to move he will have when interest rates rise.

      They probably are not in his electorate Wannon as his new wife may not have been very keen on the area.

  4. The Schadenfreude feast will be long and large

    These effing idiots who piled in boots and all deserve everything every mug speculator gets – a slap in the face, a kick in the arse and a tent to sleep in

      • That’s right, Robbo.

        They can make do with a swag under an overpass.

        Just like the non-speculator/younger families had to make do with a 2-b renters townhouse with leaky windows, a balcony and a $65 Bunnings dunny instead of a 3-b home with insulation and a backyard.

        Let em burn.

  5. In the chart it shows a negative supply-demand balance.
    Does that mean low supply/high demand, or the other way around?