Morgan Stanley housing tracker hits record low

Thursday, 12 July 2018

Morgan Stanley’s forward-looking housing model – MSHAUS – set a new historical low at -1.0 in the June quarter.

“Credit has tightened further, sentiment is slipping, and additional stock is hitting the market,” said Morgan Stanley strategists Daniel Blake and Chris Nicol.

“While consensus is now bearish on dwelling prices, this model suggests a price floor is still over the horizon.”

The chart:

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.