Links 9 July 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

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Comments

  1. Is this article a complete lie?

    If the female labour market participation goes up, the wages of men would go up?!

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/07/05/why-india-needs-women-to-work

    Gentlemen, spending just two hours a week doing the dishes or putting the kids to bed, would translate into a ten percentage point increase in female labour participation, according to a World Bank study. If that raised GDP by $550bn, as the McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank, has suggested, it would surely be the easiest half-trillion-dollar boost

    Utter bunkum.

    The most fruitful policy would be to reform India’s labour market so that women can be sucked into jobs en masse.

    Which would surely make wages go down. If it would make wages go up, only give 457/482 visas to females.

    • That’s all BS!! Ask Skippy and Barnacale Bill – Foreign Debt is ALL good! It means we have got all these goodies, you know like Audis beamers and iPhones for nothing!! We just need to print more money

      • I still see your hard money views still skew everything under the sun flawse. I would remind that Bill is not the center of the MMT universe and that MMT is only a description of sovereign fiat potential. Not that monetarist and quasi monetarist needed any such basic engineering perspective to apply their ideologically driven deductive social programming. Then one needs to add post Keynesian economic view on top of it to really flesh out the policy advocacy.

        Hay what did you think of Trumps soybean caper, seems Brazil just got a 25% boost to make up the void he left, Wharton RE school will do that to ya…..

    • I’d make a couple of quick points
      1. I see Martin raised the Pitchford Thesis – with the deliberate intent of having, justifiably, it shot down. I’d further add on that subject that as long as you have an over-valued A$ (see point 2) then that is a major distortion in the equation that the private sector only borrows money that will generate a cash flow that will allow the money to be repaid.

      2. If we did not sell assets to fund the CAD and Foreign Debt then the A$ value would adjust itself. What keeps the A$ in demand by foreign interests is the knowledge that we are willing to sell any and all assets in order to fund our over-consumption. This is the reason we have not had a crisis in our external account long since. We are happy to sell off our children’s future to fund our current consumption.
      Plus 1
      3. Would the morons behind the scheme to bring in hundred of thousands of migrants every year, park them in Sydney and Melbourne, put them on social security or working in coffee shops and restaurants, please explain their End Game. All this immigration does is explode the CAD and Foreign Debt making the eventual ‘catastrophe’ something much worse!!!

  2. Gold Cost update:Gold Cost- it sorta ticks all the boxes.
    If you were wondering how come the comm games was a failure, the town planning for at least southport and surfers is a failure, the famous light rail, is notably light on passengers, and the whole gold cost is rapidly headed for disaster cos the mayor too is incompetent, read on:
    A ballooning public service has the perks but no job satisfaction: Former QLD premier Newman made a fatal error when he sacked 14,000 Queensland public servants. It should’ve been at least 5x that number. Newman’s attempt to save taxpayers billions failed and the public service is now packed with an increasingly inefficient, bloated, empowered and entitled middle management.
    A voting bloc of angry, left-leaning, union-fuelled sycophants carrying out the bidding of whatever bumbling, stumbling, mumbling minister they work under.
    Taking “early retirement as a result of sickness”- Depression and anxiety are rife, but with little choice and fear of the non-cloistered world outside, we stay put, hating our jobs, hating our colleagues and hating our lives. So what does someone like me do?
    Hope for a change of government in Queensland? (I wish!)
    Stay and descend further and further into the malaise? Or just leave? Well, no.
    The wages are good, the super is great and besides, I’d miss all those yummy morning teas.
    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/inside-the-queensland-governments-william-st-offices-a-ballooning-public-service-has-the-perks-but-no-job-satisfaction/news-story/f88eb0b6478fe213c5943ea4bdde0e35?login=1
    WW, nothing to see here, its all good, just another person waiting till someone comes along to make decisions for them and hopefully lead them to salvation, before the money runs out>>>>about now.
    Does this remind any of Greece, Italy, Spain, France, Germany?
    You can look up a tide table for the depth of the water at the beach on the coast.
    We need now a poo table: some, much, overwhelming.
    For Mr Wang, I suspect it was overwhelming. Word around the ridges is that “Chinese banks are looking down the barrel of a staggering $1.7 trillion of losses”, from an “experiment” which is “exploding”.
    Chinese bank losses “could exceed 4x the U.S. banking losses incurred during GFC”.
    http://www.afr.com/real-estate/commercial/chinas-wanda-restructures-australian-projects-20170810-gxt8hu
    Just for perspective, 1.7 trill is 1 thousand 700 billion, so the coupla bill they are gunna lose in RE in Straya is miniscule, so there must be overwhelming poo somewhere else?
    Better there, than here? What does The Donald know that we don’t?
    “Put it this way,” Chanos said. “If you wouldn’t be short:
    A multi-billion-dollar loss-making enterprise
    In a cyclical business, With a leveraged balance sheet,
    Questionable accounting, a CEO with a questionable relationship with the truth,
    Every executive leaving, (some leaving the planet.)
    What would you be short? It sort of ticks all the boxes.”

    • The big slide is underway, and no it is not a ride for the average punters
      nor for investors, actually. More like the big dipper! Stay well clear.
      MOVIE World owner Village Roadshow has called a share trading halt as it seeks to raise $50 million to cut debt.
      In an ASX statement this morning, Village said it is asking for the trading halt to provide information about a potential capital raising.
      Cutting debt has been a priority for Village Roadshow, which, like rival Ardent Leisure, struggled in the wake of the tragedy at Dreamworld in October 2016.
      WW, the next house of horrors attraction for this mob will the
      “trading insolvent” house of terror

  3. Kerry Obrien on the weekend at a rally in support of the ABC
    Does anyone trust politicians more than the ABC?, Boo Hiss
    Does anyone trust the banks more than the ABC? Boo Hiss
    Does anyone trust the churches more than the ABC? Boo Hiss

    Takes 1 to know 1
    Mr Turnbull on Saturday ­issued a rallying call at a quasi-campaign launch for the Longman by-election, addressing the LNP’s state convention in Brisbane.
    He called Mr Shorten a “liar” for running a campaign against the government based on the ­“Mediscare” campaign in 2016.
    “He cannot tell the truth,’’ Mr Turnbull said.
    “There is no point being mealy-mouthed about this.
    He is a liar. It shows you the contempt the Labor Party has for the people of Longman.
    The way they continually lie.
    And they believe that if you repeat the lie often enough some people will believe it.”

    • Wow! O’Brien is sure holding the ABS to a high standard!!! He found the only three that the ABC MIGHT be better than. That said, in relation to the Churches, I understand there are some skeletons still in the ABC cupboard in regard to that stuff.

      • Cyclone Ranger

        I think he might have skipped over radio DJs and gynaecologists on purpose.

      • ABC (obviously) CR re the gynos – you obviously have a current issue? I’d say that in a society where common morality has been lost anyone who has a captive market is just going to blindly rip the society to pieces.

  4. interested party

    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/more-2300-suspected-online-child-sex-offenders-arrested-during-operation-broken-heart

    ^ Just one line item of list below…..all with links to verify.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MAnZZoD7y5Ydwx2rSrZualrZTNUYDY7gozTXkT0YUOs/edit#gid=0

    “A child in the sex-slave business has a useful expected lifetime of two years. They fail to thrive in that setting. They die of disease, neglect, abuse, and giving up.”
    http://realityroars.com/conspiracy/other/secrets-of-the-cia-global-sex-slave-industry-by-dr-sue-arrigo.html

    It is real. It is everywhere. It is being stopped. It runs all the way to the top of the most trusted institutions society has.
    Read it. Deal with it. It helps explain the geopolitical turmoil in many parts of the world….and we thought it was always about oil.

    • G’day IP
      Thank you for your posts of late. I haven’t commented and won’t on this one. My views might prove a bit controversial. Let’s just say that no civilisation has ever survived what we do with kids one way and the other.

      • interested party

        G’day ole fella.
        I reckon there are a few who are just sitting and reading. I don’t blame them for not commenting… it is a sensitive subject. The conspiracy brand will be blown away when the hard stuff come into public view. The docs list link above is just a sample.
        I am posting to prepare people for what is to come. These people are really really sick, and cannot be killed enough times, for mine. I want to say a whole heap more, but must let the people who have the undeniable evidence decide when and if society is ready for it. It really is that bad.

        Feel free to express yourself, it is already damn controversial… a bit more won’t hurt.

      • interested party

        Flawse, I need to add this…
        View Trumps policies through the lens of the above links…..border wall, immigration ( think loopholes for trafficking…Haiti as example ) and others. Remove the political left/right colouring. It is everywhere.

    • I believe …the answers lie back in time…just like economics. It’s really part of the same problem – a society and civilisation that has lost its way. 🙁

      • interested party

        Yeah, and I sincerely hope that society can re-discover the required ingredients to fix and maintain a healthy society, because if we can’t……

      • interested party

        and a corollary to that comment is that if America fails/falls, the world falls. In other words, if qanon fails, we are all to fail….period!
        The pure evil that is against us here will be too much. We have one chance of cleaning it up.

      • interested party

        Max, it is because of the corruption and criminal actions of the bad actors within the US establishment that the US has such a bad reputation.
        This thing regarding Qanon… or just Q…. is the process of addressing that behaviour and reputation. When I say ” if america falls” I am referring to the military intelligence operation underway to sort out the mess.
        Thanks for the link, I will have a look.

        If you have a dislike for the people you named in your comment, you will enjoy the information/evidence as it come to light. In it up to the eyeballs.

    • truthisfashionable

      @IP

      Is there any crossover between this and the Mueller investigation?

      I can’t seem to connect the two.. possibly too cryptic for me to see.

      • interested party

        Yeah, it’s all connected.
        Mueller is a delaying tactic to try and help the bad actors reclaim power over the political system in the mid-terms. If they succeed then the evidence gets buried and will most likely screw the chances of fixing things. The evidence they are worried about is related to the links above, all the other links I have provided over the last week or so, and far greater crimes that are simple unbelievable for most at this stage. The Clinton foundation, Rothschilds, Vatican, the Crown….. hell the list just goes on and on……and that is why this is a global operation. It cannot stop at the US border because it will only grow another head. It has to be killed! The global trade deals Trump is backing out of are connected as well. Think payoffs…the unexplained wealth of some politicians……see this through the lens of the links above……all connected….all sick!
        It is a convenient game to brand it a conspiracy, but as you can see with the links above….. over time we can share evidence as society absorbs, digests, and reconciles the info shared at each stage. It is too much to handle in one go…. nightmare stuff.

        Regarding Mueller, he is a side show in all of this. Watch Huber! He’s a white hat. Our guy.
        https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/03/31/turley-sessions-using-utah-federal-prosecutor-much-better-trump-2nd-special-counsel/

      • interested party

        Thinking on this a bit more, I would add…
        There are multiple investigations going on at the moment. Mueller/Rosenstein to stall, delay, obstruct.

        against

        Huber/Horowitz/Sessions in the background quietly adding to that list of sealed indictments via the conduit of the breitbart link above. There is a time race to the mid-terms that is very relevant, however, at some point Trump will be required to de-classify a whole bunch of documents that are pertaining to all of the above and that will expose a lot of the required evidence to lock a lot of people away….and start the global snowball.

      • breitbart link = ideological cool aid infotainment…. next thing and some will be linking to Alex Jones…. smoothies and balm – salves to fix what ails is just a bonus….

      • interested party

        You disagree with the article? I don’t know why you aren’t somewhere else running the world with all your wisdom…. or is the drive-by just a for a touch of the spotlight?

      • Its hard to get to an article when the purveyor[s have such obvious motives. Sorta like wonky accredited astrophysicists using their credentials to forward their religious beliefs. You tube videos with links to books and DVDs with chariots at the bottom of the red sea from Moses little jaunt.

        I pointed out before in studying antiquity the first thing done in crafting a narrative is the suspension of disbelief, 90%+ effort, the rest is after disbelief is suspended, where then the mental anchor points for the narrative are established. This then allows the crafter to manage their audience, think cold reading.

        You do understand Einstein died in bed still writing mathematical proofs to support a grand theory of everything, why, because he thought the creator would have been elegant.

        BTW don’t use the term wise with me, it has esoteric implications.

      • interested party

        Question not answered.
        You describe the breitbart experience, but leave the meat still sitting on the plate.
        Is the information in the article incorrect…. or is it correct? Simple answer will suffice.

    • mild colonial

      Wow, as a lactivist, I’m stunned. Women do need help to get started in breastfeeding but from then on it’s so easy, cheap and convenient. Breastfeeding creates love and health, what does it say about today’s cultures that fight it – the state doesn’t want a bond between children and parents. (The same people who one hundred years on deny the existence of the subconscious, think we operate as purely conscious rational beings.) Fortunately as I read this article I also just thought, all these words, all this complexity, it’s just chattering fashion of the hopelessly bored and unhappy. ignore them and breastfeed.

  5. NEW ZEALAND: Govt criticised (by Pavletich) for moving slowly on Auckland growth boundary | Michael Daly | Fairfax / Stuff.co.nz

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/auckland/105295016/govt-criticised-for-moving-slowly-on-auckland-growth-boundary

    The Government is being criticised for moving slowly in its efforts to remove Auckland’s urban growth boundary – which, before the election, Labour suggested was crucial to fixing the city’s housing crisis.

    Hugh Pavletich, co-author of the annual Demographia international housing affordability survey, accused Housing and Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford of doing what he was told by Auckland Council planners.

    “To date there has been no progress on the abolition of urban limits and the appropriate bond financing of infrastructure,” Pavletich said. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Governments pathetic performance since Christmas – Hugh Pavletich

    http://www.performanceurbanplanning.org/General%20June.html

    Speech from the throne pledges that Auckland’s urban limit will be removed and density controls will be freed up in this term of Government | interest.co.nz

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/90780/speech-throne-pledges-aucklands-urban-limit-will-be-removed-and-density-controls-will

    • … May 2016 …

      Labour support on city limits (abolition) welcomed | Nick Smith | Beehive.govt.nz

      https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/labour-support-city-limits-welcomed

      … May 2018 … Building Consents Surge …

      Central government is becoming increasingly irrelevant, as the locals take control responding to public opinion and demand …

      Surge in new dwelling consents in Auckland could be the beginning of the end for the region’s housing shortage … Interest Co NZ

      https://www.interest.co.nz/property/94554/surge-new-dwelling-consents-auckland-could-be-beginning-end-regions-housing-shortage

      … A few further lessons from Greater Christchurch … (The GREATS are the smaller and functional Selwyn and Waimakariri Councils) …

      Lincoln (South Christchurch): From mill town to boom town … John McCrone … The Press

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/103331085/lincoln-from-mill-town-to-boom-town

      It was supposed to be a post-quake phenomenon, yet there is little sign of it slowing. Why are rural fringe towns like Lincoln still growing so fast? JOHN McCRONE reports.

      The contrast is striking. In central Christchurch, Fletcher Living is taking forever to get going on its East Frame townhouse and apartment block development.

      Government and council have agreed that denser inner city housing is vital to making a success of the earthquake rebuild. Yet despite inking a deal with Fletcher to build nearly 1000 homes back in 2015, the first 20 properties won’t be finished until late this year.

      The buyers just don’t seem to be there for them. And so the East Frame development has been uphill all the way.

      However, take the road half an hour out of town to Lincoln and the story is the opposite. This once sleepy village has exploded with subdivisions. Its residential footprint is now 10 times what it was 20 years ago.

      READ MORE:
      * Rolleston: Time to take it seriously
      * Christchurch’s $600 million motorways
      * Christchurch’s next problem: bringing residents back into the CBD
      * Government ‘locked in’ to contract for delay-riddled east frame

      … Preference always trumps policy …

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