Gottiboff: Australia experiencing “population slowdown”

By Leith van Onselen

Robert Gottiebsen has sounded the alarm, claiming that Australia is experiencing a “population slowdown”:

Unfortunately, Australia’s population growth has fallen to the lowest level since 2004 and is set to remain in the doldrums in 2019 and 2020 and perhaps longer…

Fertility rates for women in their low twenties is at a record low and still falling (so too for females aged under 20).

Accordingly, there is unlikely to be any significant increase in births over the next five years or so…

Deaths are increasing due to population growth among older people despite age-specific death rates falling for those aged above 65…

Accordingly, migration becomes even more important in establishing population growth… Net migration is approaching a cyclical low…

And so as we look at the components of population growth we find that births are static, deaths are rising and net migration is experiencing a cyclical low.

Population growth bottomed at 1.10 per cent in 2004 and then started to rise rapidly reaching a peak of 2.19 per cent in 2008. From there it started to decline and was down to 1.58 per cent in 2017.

In the current year, Nelson expects it to fall to 1.35 per cent and to hold at around that level in 2019 and 2020.

The 1.35 per cent population increase rate is the lowest since 2005, if there is a significant decline in births or a fall in net migration, then population growth could fall closer to the 2004 low of 1.10 per cent…

A likely slowing in population growth in 2018 and 2019 would tend to reduce overall demand growth in the economy and many industries are likely to be affected.

Australia’s population growth is “in the doldrums”, hey Gotti? Then how do you explain the following chart, whose data comes from the ABS?

At nearly the highest in history, Australia’s population growth looks anything but “in the doldrums“, wouldn’t you say?

And what about our major cities. Is population growth “in the doldrums” there? Clearly not, given population increase in Sydney and Melbourne are both running at near record levels:

Blind Freddy can see that Australia’s population growth is excessive, made worse by the heavy concentration into Melbourne and Sydney, which has crush-loaded housing, infrastructure and quality of life.

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Comments

  1. Banks leverage depositors funds by 20x to loan out to idiot house flippers that bid against you in auctions and force prices up generally.
    Banks benefit the most from mass immigration forcing up prices and creating major infrastructure projects. It is in the banks’ interests to clog the streets with immigrants and force land prices up on ever smaller high density allotments.

    The easy credit from banks supports a whole industry of immigration and construction parasites that lobby and corrupt government, forcing you to pay $1mil for a tiny dog box on no land living in asian style conditions.

    The banks’ property bubble makes land unaffordable for small manufacturers, and flows through to wages making industry unviable.

    If you want to kill off the property bubble, mass immigration, want better jobs, cheaper houses, and generally go back to the “australian” way of life, put your money into assets you legally own instead of losing it in a bank bail-in.

  2. adelaide_economistMEMBER

    Pure evil. Even 1.35% is incredibly high by OECD standards and that’s only a recent decline. How rotten do you need to be to have so much and still allow yourself to be a cypher for the obvious interest behind this argument?

    • A decline in growth from excessive to mildly excessive is not a decline in population. Refer Japan, where all metrics PER PERSON have improved. Bankers are bulk consumers of peoples wealth.

    • Yes the greed is obscene. And the fact that we can allow people to have a choice of how many children they want and still run a sustainable population isn’t that a really good thing?

  3. When did Gotti last walk on a beach, run through the forest, play down by a river, take the kids to a park. He doesn’t care, just another one of the rich old men that only care about power like it can help their greedy bony fingers hold off the the reaper that stalks them.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSvrUktpHHI

  4. “Fertility rates for women in their low twenties is at a record low and still falling “.

    This tells you all you need to know about our society. People no longer want to reproduce like they did. Economic insecurity I suspect is the main reason.
    Now we have these constant gender wars, men will come to the conclusion that it is safer not to.. and use whatever spare resources they have to go fishing, surfing, Xbox, rebuild old cars and smoke weed.
    oh and Thai massages.. one in every suburb now

    • Our TFR is actually still not that low by developed world standards. True there are more countries in the world overall with higher than lower TFR compared to us, but of those that are above us according to the 2017 World Bank list, only Sweden and Ireland look vaguely non-horrible., and they aren’t more fertile by a significant amount (and certainly not above replacement)

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

      Overall, high TFR is correlated with being a pretty awful place to live, not with being an awesome place to live.

    • Actual fertility can be impacted by societal factors, not just social factors. There is reasonable argument that modern food packaging, hygiene products and food selection have an adverse impact to testosterone levels in men (and male fertility). I haven’t looked into female fertility factors.

      From a social perspective, it is my perception these days that a girl that gets knocked up as a 20yo or younger just had loose unprotected sex (without the pill) and got pregnant – mostly of low socio-economic status and/or low IQ. Most girls of that age are encouraged to be studying at university. The have been duped into believing careers are more important than family, so the typical family these days has less children than their parents’ generation. So pregnancies commonly commence after their fertility has already begun to decline.

    • And between s3xbots and crispr, no one will need women to make babies either. Winning.

      Think of all the empowerment women will have once their gender is no longer needed to make / care for babies. They will be able to prove their equality for all the world to see! Grrl Pwer!

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Good for them! I’m actually keenly following the progress of the girl-bots. They are advancing in leaps and bounds and will definitely make chicks redundant for pleasure well within our life-time. As agreeable as I can get most chicks to be at the property investor relations parties there’s always something they just won’t do. Bots can have that programmed out of them. Can’t wait.

  5. Wino ShinyfaceMEMBER

    You want a cheap overseas holiday? Go to Westfield Hurstville and feel like youre in another country for a day, has to be seen to be believed, no passport or visa needed just yet

  6. plebngineerMEMBER

    Locals aren’t breeding because it’s too expensive because of immigration. So let’s increase immigration to offset this.

    • Look, you’ve been digging, you’re in a hole, what else are you going to do other than keep digging? You’ve got a spade there with you, not a ladder.


  7. Blind Freddy can see that Australia’s population growth is excessive, made worse by the heavy concentration into Melbourne and Sydney, which has crush-loaded housing, infrastructure and quality of life.

    is in no way contradictory to


    Fertility rates for women in their low twenties is at a record low and still falling (so too for females aged under 20).

    Accordingly, there is unlikely to be any significant increase in births over the next five years or so…

    Deaths are increasing due to population growth among older people despite age-specific death rates falling for those aged above 65…

    Accordingly, migration becomes even more important in establishing population growth… Net migration is approaching a cyclical low

    Certainly deaths are clearly increasing, while births aren’t, although it’s not clear births are actually falling.

    Given births are not increasing as quickly as the population, by defintion migration is more important than before in maintaining the current level of population and population growth and to maintain the same level absolute level of population growth given increasing deaths and no increase in births, NOM needs to increase at the same absolute number rate as deaths.

    This will be difficult, which is a good thing from UE’s perspective and a bad thing from Gottliebsen’s paymasters’ perspective.

  8. Must be a difficult job responding to this sort of rubbish, rampant population growth increases the cost of living while reducing wages, no surprise that local birth rates are falling

  9. Leith, why does your “Australian Population Change’ graph flatline into the future?

  10. Population growth is slowing all around the world. It may be due to smartphones keeping use otherwise occupied, the way of nature to slow population growth once an organism runs out of natural resources, people running out of space and having to live on top of each other, industrial pollution, or maybe we are just tired…
    So for Australia to stay ahead in the population race, we need to increase migration(huh???) eventually leading to the total world population only living in Australia in a thousand years or so???
    Great idea!!

    • In Harry’s words…….’I’ll just bring in more people’. So what’s the problem? Are their political puppets no longer playing the game?

      • ’I’ll just bring in more people’

        I think he’s finding it a lot more easily said than done. Note that for a pyramid scheme to work, not only does there need to be a continual supply of new entrants, the new entrants have to arrive at an increasing rate.

      • Maybe people from the countries that are immigrating are starting to hear about how it’s not really the great Australia they dreamt of. At some point we are going to get to the stage where people weigh it up and just say, yeah, nah and stay at home with friends and family.


      • Maybe people from the countries that are immigrating are starting to hear about how it’s not really the great Australia they dreamt of

        Also if they meet someone, and want to have kid (or the someone wants all that) suddenly they’ve got to deal with the house prices, the over full schools, the cost of health care etc etc.
        Being a Deliveroo driver might be an adventure for a single, but it’s not going to let you raise a family.

  11. Mr SquiggleMEMBER

    “Deaths are increasing due to population growth among older people despite age-specific death rates falling for those aged above 65…”

    Of course the death rate is increasing. 36% of the population over 65 are migrants. Compared to 26% of overall population.

    migration has been boosting our over-65 age group more than its been boosting our 25-35 age group.

    Migrants have a head start in the aging process. They accumulate in our older age bands and the over 65 age group quicker than non-migrants

    • The world had 3.7 bn fewer people, not 4 billion, 48 years before that video was made, and will have 3.0 bn extra people by the time it’s 48 years after.