At times I have agreed with Horseman Global (known by the some as the world’s most bearish hedge fund) but not today:
One of the most dangerous things to happen in financial markets is to be right for the wrong reasons. If you fail to recognize that you were lucky, then you will continue to make investment decisions based on faulty reasoning, and eventually your luck will run out.
To try and get around this problem, I tend to write Market Views, that lay out my thinking on various topics and themes in the market. Given we have had a couple of down months in a row, it seems like a good time to set out the rationale for the main themes of your fund.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
