Comments

1. 

   Paddy Finucane June 29, 2018 at 10:26 pm

   Greetings from a very fast track kind of day in StP G. That is an epic set of charts.

   Could I assume from that you think Australian

   Households
   Retailers
   Businesses reliant on discretionary spend
   States reliant on Stamp Duty receipts
   Probably banks
   and coal powered electricity

   …..are under pressure?

   • 

     GunnamattaMEMBER June 30, 2018 at 7:48 am

     Its the middle of winter here in Geetroit Padster.

     Just the thought of the Stp P or Moscba track has me almost weeping. Half the charts do too

     • 

       Wiley Wolf June 30, 2018 at 8:46 am

       With the collapse of the theme parks up here, in 1 case literally, you can now add Surftroit, to Geetroit, Broadmeadows, and anywhere in South Australia.

     • 

       JohnR June 30, 2018 at 12:20 pm

       welcome back WW

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       Wiley Wolf July 1, 2018 at 10:34 am

       JR: had a few weeks off for a holiday,which turned into a working holiday, which turned into working away from home, which turned into arriving back believing a change is as good as a holiday. its not.
       So now Im looking forward to a proper holiday.

   • 

     yeborskyMEMBER June 30, 2018 at 11:06 am

     Just walked through Stockland Village shopping centre near home in Balgowlah.
     Gone – Kikki.k (fancy stationery), Eminence IT ( good range of tech & electronics), an upmarket beauty salon (name forgotten) and Lorna Jane (hopefully we’ve hit peak active-wear and women will once again start wearing decent clothes instead of tights). A lot here is the discretionary stuff that’s first to slow. I wouldn’t want to be a retailer today.

     • 

       Wiley Wolf July 1, 2018 at 10:42 am

       Gunna has a chart on the value of company branding
       in the source document you will find the top 500 global brands
       have a look at the increase in value of the top say 10 brands over last year
       and the now emergence of chinese property developers in the top say 200
       given that assessing the value of a companys brand is mostly myth based and given that any sort of valuation of a chinese property developers brand is also myth, huge shake up coming
       BTW Amazon is no 1 not Apple.
       the no1 brand for straya was telstra ??? Share price going through the floor.???

2. 

   BruceMEMBER June 30, 2018 at 7:38 am

   Love the “Budget projections for Stamp Duty Revenues”
   Between scoMos wildly optimistic growth assumptions and these lies Federal and state budgets are a work of fiction.

   • 

     GunnamattaMEMBER June 30, 2018 at 7:46 am

     For mine, when you look at the outer stamp duty projections, and bear in mind that every state government in Australia is addicted to them, and think to yourself ‘OK, the government is going to cover this economic downturn stemming from economic bereftitude with a public infrastructure spend’ I find myself thinking of punters swimming in nice tropical waters at sunset when all of a sudden the double bass starts up.

   • 

     nyleta June 30, 2018 at 7:59 am

     Settled sales in Australia are telling a different story…god help the state governments if there is an external shock

     https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/the-continued-decline-in-australian-housing-sales-in-one-chart-20180629-p4zoh1.html

     

3. 

   Wiley Wolf June 30, 2018 at 8:43 am

   Gunna
   Excellent work, much effort there but worth it.

4. 

   Totty June 30, 2018 at 2:00 pm

   There is the vast amount of work on this page. Thank you.

5. 

   Popcod June 30, 2018 at 9:55 pm

   One chart that stood out for me was the one showing trust in business and government around the world. The results for China are interesting in that both gov and business scored highly, in fact the Chinese according to this survey have the highest trust in their government in all countries included in the report, and the second highest trust in business. I’m not saying the results are incorrect however I would love to know how the question was worded in Chinese. I’m just pointing out that they are not what most would expect, especially when you consider the general lack of trust in China, and one Chinese solution which is daigou. China is a complex place and often can not be reliably reduced to a data point. Anyway the high levels of trust in the government is something to keep in mind when you consider citizen support for various gov initiatives, esp foreign policy.

   • 

     GunnamattaMEMBER July 1, 2018 at 7:46 am

     I had a broadly similar issue with the same chart. Russian based.

     I know from experience that a lot of people might say they ‘trust the government’ but only insofar as they trust people in government to behave a certain way, and also they tend to view ‘the government’ as also including lots of ‘bureacrats’ who will invariably have their hand out anytime anyone needs something from them. So they sort of trust ‘the government’ to deliver a service for a price.

     …….also there is the not insignificant factor in Russia that ‘business’ is not trusted often because it is assets which were stolen (one way or another) from the public purse to begin with and is headed by a spectacularly rapacious and socially uncaring oligarchy.

     From that inasupicious macro view they wuould also observe that every last smaller business person (yes they do exist) no matter how square and honest they are, is invariably working with a ‘roof’ (the Russian is ‘Krysha’ – which they all are) which provides protection (including from bureaucrats sometimes) and you can sort of see why they prefer big government to smooth out all the smaller smaller issues rather than believe in every man for himself sort of stuff.

     • 

       Popcod July 1, 2018 at 4:48 pm

       Interesting. Thanks!

       The thing is with the Chinese with regard to some aspects of governance, they really do trust the government, and rightly so, with other aspects, not so much, (I’ve had some really in depth discussions with Chinese about this) so it is the breaking of that down which is what you really want to know, but of course I’m not sure if those questions can be asked or if they would get honest answers if they were asked.

     • 

       flawse July 2, 2018 at 12:29 pm

       Agree with Popcod.
       The images and understanding of China, its people, its government and how the place works is sorely lacking around MB. For us, having lived super-comfortably for the last 70 years, and not exposed to China, it is very difficult/impossible to get a grip on.
       The China I have seen and the image of China portrayed by MB are totally different animals.

6. 

   Researchtime July 2, 2018 at 10:13 am

   Some bloody good gems there Gunna…

7. 

   flawse July 2, 2018 at 12:30 pm

   Again great work Gunna