Weekend Chartfest June 30 – July 1, 2018

 

Australia

 

 

 

Australian dollar and yield differential RBA and US Federal Reserve

 

 
BBSW 2018

 

 

 

Australian Short Term Funding 2017 onwards

 

 

 

Funding Costs (BBSW) and Mortgage Rates

 

 

 

Australian interest rate hikes – potential implications for $500k mortgage

 

 

 

Australian Household Debt

 

 

 

Budget projections for Stamp Duty Revenues

 

 

 

RBA Cash Rate and Australian CPI

 

 

 

Affordability and Multiple Income Households 

 

 

 

Housing Credit and Household Wealth

 

 

 

Australia – unemployed and vacant jobs

 

 

 

Australia and United States – labour underutilisation

 

 

 

Australia – Financial Derivatives

 

 

 

Renewables and coal costs and Australian electricity

 

 

 

 

United States & Americas

 

 

 

United States – Household Net Worth and Nominal GDP

 

 

 

United States – Balance of Payments

 

 

 

United States – Real Exports and Trade Weighted $

 

 

 

United States – Import Prices and Trade Weighted $

 

 

 

United States – Nominal GDP and Interest Rates

 

 

 

Foreign Owned US Debt and US10s

 

 

 

US FDI

 

 

 

United States – savings

 

 

 

United States – Income and Wealth Growth (bottom 50% are no better off now than circa 1970…)

 

 

 

United States – New Car Registrations

 

 

 

United States – Imports of Cars and Car parts, major partners

 

 

 

United States – company size and employment growth

 

 

 

United States Labor Market

 

 

 

United States – New RE millionaires

 

 

 

United States – Guns & People

 

 

 

United States Parental Life Changes 1965 – 2016

 

 

 

Argentina Balance of Payments

 

 

 

Venezuela Crude

 

 

 

China & Asia

 

China Household Consumption & Savings

 

 

 

China rising Household indebtedness – comparison with G7

 

 

 

Shanghai Composite and China Manufacturing PMI

 

 

 

China Hang Seng – corporates at lows

 

 
China – Shadow Banking (and how it works) 

 

 
China easing – 4 different metrics 

 

 

 

China – Corn Stocks 

 

 
China – CNY 

 

 

 

China Imports – Semiconductors and oil

 

 

 

Japan Unemployment

 

 

Europe & United Kingdom

 

Government debt to GDP – Germany Greece Spain Italy

 

 

 

Eurozone 10yr Sovereigns YTD

 

 

 

United Kingdom and Eurozone GDP

 

 

 

United Kingdom regional economies GDP per Head and GVA

 

 

 

German Sentiment and Expectations

 

 

 

Eurozone TLTRO

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Consumer Spending

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Health Spending

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Investment Sentiment

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Public Sector Borrowing 1

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Public Sector Borrowing 2

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Retail

 

 

 

Commodities

 

The Global Coal Trade

 

 

 

Global Crude – Demand drivers

 

 

 

Crude Oil – Price and Production

 

 

 

Crude – sources of suply

 

 

 

Base Metals – 2018 volatility

 

 

 

Aluminium 2018

 

 

 

Iron Ore Supply 1

 

 

 

Iron Ore Supply 2

 

 

 

Steelmaking Costs

 

 

 

CBOT Corn …look out below

 

 

 

CBOT Soybeans

 

 

 

Major Crops – Average Annual growth rates since 1960

 

 

 

Soybeans

 

 

 

Global Sugar Consumption

 

 

 

Global Wheat Production

 

 

 

Wheat exporters

 

 

 

China Beef Imports

 

 

 

Gold – spot and future

 

 

 

Gold Coverage

 

 

 

Capital Markets

 

 

 

Global Debt

 

 

 

Equity and Debt to Global GDP

 

 

 

Global Yields

 

 

 

What is a flattening Yield Curve you ask?

 

 

 

Yield Curve Inversions and Recessions

 

 

 

Developed Market Yield Curves

 

 

 

DM Maturities

 

 

 

Loans and Junk Bonds

 

 

 

Debt Servicing – Various Developed Nations

 

 

 

Debt – Emerging Markets or China?

 

 

 

Bahrain CDS ….ice on the back of the neck

 

 

 

Moody’s corporate bonds – Grades since late 1990s

 

 

 

China International Reserves – China/Japan UST holdings

 

 

 

EM Currencies v USD since start 2017

 

 

 

US and Euro Large Caps

 

 

 

CNY – USD

 

 

 

INR – USD

 

 

 

Value and Growth – What is now telling us?

 

 

 

S&P 500 and VIX

 

 

 

Global Macro

 

Foreign Born Percentage of Population – OECD

 

 

 

United States and G7 Tariffs

 

 

 

Global over 60s

 

 

 

Health Spending

 

 

 

Workers doing 60 hour weeks

 

 

 

Catastrophes and Insurance

 

 

 

Political Risks – Selected EM & DMs

 

 

 

Major Global Cities – Purchasing Power

 

 

 

US Based remittances 

 

 

 

House Price Gains 2013 – 2017 – various global cities

 

 

 

Major Global House Prices to Income

 

 

 

Global Trust in Business and Government

 

 

 

US China Trade Imbalance 

 

 

 

People without access to bank accounts

 

 

 

OECD – Work – Life Balances

 

 

 

…and furthermore…

 

 
Cognitive Bias

 

 

 

Plastic Surgery searches – US States

 

 

 

The World’s Major Brands

 

 

 

The World’s Major Religions

 

 

 

The Demise of the RomCom

 

 

 

Spend an Extra Hour in Bed

Comments

  1. Paddy Finucane

    Greetings from a very fast track kind of day in StP G. That is an epic set of charts.

    Could I assume from that you think Australian

    Households
    Retailers
    Businesses reliant on discretionary spend
    States reliant on Stamp Duty receipts
    Probably banks
    and coal powered electricity

    …..are under pressure?

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Its the middle of winter here in Geetroit Padster.

      Just the thought of the Stp P or Moscba track has me almost weeping. Half the charts do too

      • With the collapse of the theme parks up here, in 1 case literally, you can now add Surftroit, to Geetroit, Broadmeadows, and anywhere in South Australia.

      • JR: had a few weeks off for a holiday,which turned into a working holiday, which turned into working away from home, which turned into arriving back believing a change is as good as a holiday. its not.
        So now Im looking forward to a proper holiday.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      Just walked through Stockland Village shopping centre near home in Balgowlah.
      Gone – Kikki.k (fancy stationery), Eminence IT ( good range of tech & electronics), an upmarket beauty salon (name forgotten) and Lorna Jane (hopefully we’ve hit peak active-wear and women will once again start wearing decent clothes instead of tights). A lot here is the discretionary stuff that’s first to slow. I wouldn’t want to be a retailer today.

      • Gunna has a chart on the value of company branding
        in the source document you will find the top 500 global brands
        have a look at the increase in value of the top say 10 brands over last year
        and the now emergence of chinese property developers in the top say 200
        given that assessing the value of a companys brand is mostly myth based and given that any sort of valuation of a chinese property developers brand is also myth, huge shake up coming
        BTW Amazon is no 1 not Apple.
        the no1 brand for straya was telstra ??? Share price going through the floor.???

  2. Love the “Budget projections for Stamp Duty Revenues”
    Between scoMos wildly optimistic growth assumptions and these lies Federal and state budgets are a work of fiction.

  3. One chart that stood out for me was the one showing trust in business and government around the world. The results for China are interesting in that both gov and business scored highly, in fact the Chinese according to this survey have the highest trust in their government in all countries included in the report, and the second highest trust in business. I’m not saying the results are incorrect however I would love to know how the question was worded in Chinese. I’m just pointing out that they are not what most would expect, especially when you consider the general lack of trust in China, and one Chinese solution which is daigou. China is a complex place and often can not be reliably reduced to a data point. Anyway the high levels of trust in the government is something to keep in mind when you consider citizen support for various gov initiatives, esp foreign policy.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I had a broadly similar issue with the same chart. Russian based.

      I know from experience that a lot of people might say they ‘trust the government’ but only insofar as they trust people in government to behave a certain way, and also they tend to view ‘the government’ as also including lots of ‘bureacrats’ who will invariably have their hand out anytime anyone needs something from them. So they sort of trust ‘the government’ to deliver a service for a price.

      …….also there is the not insignificant factor in Russia that ‘business’ is not trusted often because it is assets which were stolen (one way or another) from the public purse to begin with and is headed by a spectacularly rapacious and socially uncaring oligarchy.

      From that inasupicious macro view they wuould also observe that every last smaller business person (yes they do exist) no matter how square and honest they are, is invariably working with a ‘roof’ (the Russian is ‘Krysha’ – which they all are) which provides protection (including from bureaucrats sometimes) and you can sort of see why they prefer big government to smooth out all the smaller smaller issues rather than believe in every man for himself sort of stuff.

      • Interesting. Thanks!

        The thing is with the Chinese with regard to some aspects of governance, they really do trust the government, and rightly so, with other aspects, not so much, (I’ve had some really in depth discussions with Chinese about this) so it is the breaking of that down which is what you really want to know, but of course I’m not sure if those questions can be asked or if they would get honest answers if they were asked.

      • Agree with Popcod.
        The images and understanding of China, its people, its government and how the place works is sorely lacking around MB. For us, having lived super-comfortably for the last 70 years, and not exposed to China, it is very difficult/impossible to get a grip on.
        The China I have seen and the image of China portrayed by MB are totally different animals.