Satyajit Das: Prepare for the next GFC

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Satyajit Das at Domainfax:

Several factors could lead to a dangerous shortage of liquidity in the event of a crisis. First, since 2009, low interest rates have driven investors into riskier, less liquid assets in search of return. These include longer-dated securities, corporate bonds and emerging-market issues — frequently of low credit quality — as well as mid-cap shares or investments in smaller and often less-developed equity markets.

…Second, concentration is high, with large funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and specialised investors, such as high-frequency traders, dominating investments. Algorithmic traders and quantitative investors exhibit herding behaviour, following near-identical strategies and holding similar portfolios.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.