Links 6 June 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)


    • And there’s the clincher:

      said many local developers would struggle to fund new site acquisitions in the current market, given that banks will only lend up to 50 per cent of the purchase price up to a maximum of about $35 million.

      So it’s the bank’s fault….

    • and 20 after that, Nigeria. (actually I don’t know this for a fact, but if you go to our world in data .org birthrates are declining everywhere without exception. the population continues to boom because of decreased mortality, but it takes some time for that signal to impact on birthrates, and as we know the total number will peak around 2050)(so long as there are no flu outbreaks in the mean time etc or abhorrent antibiotic resistant bacteria). Blame the Haber Process.

      • Ehiopia first, then Nigeria – thanks to the shrinking Chinese workforce, they are building factories in Ethipia which is accelerating urbanisation, and urban fertility in Ethiopia is already often below replacement, e.g. in Addis Abbaba, although it varies.

        birthrates are declining everywhere without exception.

        Actually not Japan or China really – they’ve found a bottom.

      • ah, good point and i actually saw data on that a few days ago (maybe it was from a MB link?). there was no signature of the one-child policy in China, it was in decline beforehand and continued on the same *path (almost wrote something that could be misinterpreted, oops).

  1. Via todays Interest Co NZ todays Interest Co NZ [email protected]

    … extract …

    … In Sydney, the former head of NSW Infrastructure has called their troubled light rail systems “vanity projects’ that were never justified on transportation needs. Adding to their contract woes, construction being hit with strikes today.

    Sydney’s George Street light rail a vanity ‘toy’ for politicians: Paul Broad |
    … google search title if blocked …

    One of the most prominent public transport projects in the country, the Sydney light rail, is a waste of money and a vanity project that should have never been started, according to the former head of Infrastructure NSW, Paul Broad.

    Now chief executive of Snowy Hydro, Mr Broad said the 12km line that will stretch from central Sydney to Randwick and Kingsford – and which is a year late and $1 billion over budget – should not have been started because extra buses and more efficient trains would have been better for commuters.

    “The Sydney Basin is doing fine with infrastructure,” he said at The Australian Financial Review National Infrastructure Summit in Sydney. “I would argue about some of the investments, for example the light rail.

    “It’s a toy. Imagine the cars it will run over and the people it will run over? For some reason there is a view that metal on rails is better than rubber on roads.” … read more via hyperlink above …

    Twyford ignoring advice that buses will cost a third of light rail | Kiwiblog

    The Herald reports:

    Transport Minister Phil Twyford has received official advice to do more work on using buses instead of modern trams from downtown Auckland to the airport – a move that could save taxpayers as much as $2.5 billion. … read more via hyperlink above …
    … Are New Zealand politicians and bureaucrats better project managers ?…

  2. Hey – I just wanted to say “Thanks!” to the honourable Mr Martin North for the excellent live stream from yesterday evening!

    Well done sir!

    Regarding repeating events: I’d vote for a “once every 2 months” or “once a quarter”, with the option of bringing one in at short-ish notice. As much as interacting with one’s listeners gives one the fuzzies, one needs to prepare prior performance to keep up said fuzzies, and that is no mean feat.

    Oh and thanks to the well behaved crowd too! I only saw one pornvertising message. Poor thing – must have missed the Reusa Live Pr0nz party stream. An off-by-one error, or Wrong Hole, as it were. 😛


    National leader Simon Bridges suggests NZ has a housing crisis but declines an interview with to explain brief comment in RNZ interview |

    … It was a crisis for National in Opposition back on 2007 …

    John Key – Housing Reform – 2007 (Youtube)

    Key: Speech to New Zealand Contractors Federation | Scoop News

    … concluding …

    … This is an issue that should concern all New Zealanders. It threatens a fundamental part of our culture, it threatens our communities and, ultimately, it threatens our economy.

    The good news is that we can turn the situation around. We can deal with the fundamental issues driving the home affordability crisis. Not just with rinky-dink schemes, but with sound long-term solutions to an issue that has long-term implications for New Zealand’s economy and society.

    National has a plan for doing this and we will be resolute in our commitment to the goal of ensuring more young Kiwis can aspire to buy their own home.

    It’s a worthy goal and one I hope you will support us in achieving. Thank-you.

    • Key lied and can – kicked for 9 long years … while the housing market inflated by another $400 billion + … unnecessarily …

      Housing: Mr Key – Get on the Programme | Scoop News

      … What I wrote late January 2017, at the time of the release of the Demographia Survey …

      New Zealand’s housing consensus:
      Where is the political leadership ? – Hugh Pavletich

      … extract …

      … Auckland’s median house price was $427,500 when Mr Key’s Government came to office late 2008 (refer 2009 5th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey ).

      If prices had even been held at this level … with a sound mix of land releases and progressive bond financing of infrastructure … and with Auckland’s current median household income of $83,000, Auckland’s median multiple today would be 5.1 not the current 10.

      Median house prices are currently way out of control at around $830,000.

      Better still … if prices had been allowed to gently ease since late 2008 (as polling has illustrated most New Zealanders prefer … and currently getting underway in Greater Christchurch, led by easing rentals), then Auckland today would be well on the road to restoring housing affordability.

      Auckland’s house prices would now be around 4 times household incomes, not the egregious 10 times incomes they are.

      The median house price would be about $330,000 … not the current stratospheric and grossly irresponsible $830,000 !

      Political failure of epic proportions ! … read more via hyperlink above …

      … which is why the National Party (Kiwi Tories) got trashed in the 2017 election… refer …


      A home truth for the Tories: fix the housing crisis or lose power for ever … The Spectator