Socceroos are gone. But Goldman’s quant model now has hope for the Poms:
For England fans who might find themselves daring to dream, our updated model predictions might constitute a beacon of hope. We continue to predict that Belgium will top Group G, ahead of England, using the unrounded goal difference as the tie-breaker on points. After a projected victory over Colombia in the Round of 16, we now expect England to meet Mexico in the quarter-finals, rather than meeting Germany. This tips the outcome in England’s favour, as they are projected to defeat Mexico, before overcoming Spain—just—in the semi-finals. In turn, this would set up a Brazil—England final on 15 July (though those hoping for an England victory should look away now). Germany are now expected to finish second in Group F, which sets up a Round of 16 match—and an early tournament exit—against Brazil ( GS forecast Brazil 1.70—1.37 Germany).
