Weekend Chartfest 19-20 May 2018

Australia

 

Budget Estimates and their revision – great chart from Saul Eslake

 

Australia Hours worked – total hours and average hours per person

 

Australia – Employment Growth, health, construction and the rest

 

Australian Employment Growth – monthly change

 

Australian Employment – labour market

 

Wages and employment

Wages growth – waiting for the great leap higher

 

Australia private health insurance …..drop your strides and cough…..

 

 

United States

United States CPI

 

United States budget deficits and selected policy impacts 

 

United States – Monetary base and credit growth

United States – Auto loans and quality

 

United States – Auto loans 

 

United States – 3m – 10 year UST spread 

 

Quantitative tightening – US Federal Reserve

 

Short term funding and UST issuance

 

United States – IPOs with negative earnings

 

United States – Household Net worth

 

United States Income inequality and transfers

 

 

 

 

 

Europe

European salaries per month

 

German GDP

 

Greece Public Debt – who is owed what

Who buys Italian bonds?

 

United Kingdom credit impulse

 

Asia

China Money supply and loan growth

 

Iran – where its oil goes

 

South Korean exports and Global EPS

Fuel costs and income – Selected Asia and Australia

 

Commodities

 

Copper – future supply projections

 

Gold to Silver

Thermal Coal

 

Crude – prices over 5 years

 

Crude – Brent, Shanghai & WTI

 

 

Crude – and the USD

 

OECD crude stocks

Crude production – United States v Saudi Arabia v Russia

 

 

 

 

Capital Markets

 

Selected Global 2-years 

 

Selected Global 10-years

 

US 10s and the S&P

 

US corporate debt 1

 

US corporate debt 2

 

Argentina 5Year – CDS Spread

 

Italian 10 – years

 

Indonesia Rp

 

Turkish Lira

 

Emerging Market Local Government local currency 2-years 

 

US 10-year TIPS

 

US 10-year long term

 

UST and Bunds

 

Global Macro

Productivity and Earnings – the crude shock or containerization?

 

Economic momentum

China, Japan & US Treasuries

 

United States – China trade balance

 

 

 

…and furthermore…

a barrel of crude – and what you can get from it

 

 

CO2

 

NATO Defence outlays as percent of GDP

 

 

Comments

  1. Super Phoenix

    Thanks, Gunna.

    The most interesting chart by far is the Fed QT one – see how the ordinate is expanded.

    If the correlation holds then by the time the Fed is done with offloading all of its Treasury notes, the US 10 year bond yield will be higher than 20%!!

    In an ideal world, a currency of such a Greek-like bond yield should tank and bear resemblance of a Zimbabwean dollar. But in the real bizzaro world, USD might even find a way to appreciate against the basket of global currencies.

  2. haroldusMEMBER

    Sweet. You know how hard it is to scroll thought this? So I think I am right about suggesting moving this from the first post.

  3. The salary graph is beautiful!

    If you go eastward from Switzerland, the dots go from blue to aqua to green to orange to red alert.

    • You could argue the greatest and worst thing. Look at our prolific use of plastics and the waste along with it. Frankly I’m shocked the planet isn’t in worse shape given how much oil we use.

  4. Guys for mondays GC update you are gunna need google earth installed and working
    Make sure you know how to drive it
    make sure you can find brisbane
    make sure you can use the past imagery tools.
    I’ll give you a more down to earth story WW

    • C’mon WW, don’t leave us hanging! Seeing quite a few more sub $1m GC waterfront properties on the market these days. Looks like the cash train has definitely halted. Never left the Comm Games station really.

      • The train could never move! There are no tracks to move on, they built the station around it, so it looks like it just arrived.

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      They’re not “out of touch”, the system is working as per specifications.

    • Australians approve of anything that means either
      1. They get something for nothing without any risk to themselves.
      2. That suits their city centric ideological purity as long as someone else bears the cost.

  5. haroldusMEMBER

    really enjoyed “a barrel of crude – and what you can get from it” and wondered why “Productivity and Earnings – the crude shock or containerization?”

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      dunno why but something is going weird with my comments this afternoon……

      and wondered why “Productivity and Earnings – the crude shock or containerization?”

      Theres a few theories about why the big separation between productivity and earnings in the 70s.

      One is that the crude shock forced the western world to do things in a more capital intensive way (which provided greater returns to capital than labour)

      another is that after sending ships across the Pacific for ten years loaded with gear for Vietnam and seeing them partly loaded, someone twigged to the idea of containerisation and getting them shipped back with manufactured goodies produced at low cost in Taiwan, japan Korea and the like – thus spelling the doom of the manufacturing component of society in the US – Robert Reich outlines this theory in ‘Supercapitalism’

      …either way since the advent of stagflation and subsequent Reaganism and Thatcherism (and their overt focus on destroying labour, and replacing earnings with debt to support material aspirations of the working classes) it has all been one way ever since. Which is gloomy, but I do think has created the political-social powederkeg of uber set telling us everything is ‘as good as it gets’ on one hand and a vast load of profoundly pissed off punterariat types seeing a future economic wasteland (which isnt worth participating in, isnt worth defending, isnt worth having children for, etc) on the other…..

      Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

      • Have to say Gunna that this was the chart that really caused me to stop and pause…….. I remember when containers were first introduced to Oz, union response and all that.
        For what it’s worth, I’m inclined to think Regan/Thatcher (was in UK when it was first mooted they would privatise water services – freaked me out. I think as an Oz the water thing , to me anyway, is so fundamental that any suggestion it be other than government controlled and guaranteed was a bridge too far…… and now I look around at what we have allowed in our country….) and the whole development of the out of control neo-liberalism model is behind ‘productivity’ numbers that don’t much more now than to obscure the destruction (happening/near/actual depending on where you are) of the social fabric that held us together

        Anyway, thanks for the great charts (yet again posted)

      • Super Phoenix

        Which country is the graph referring to? The US? If so, it is most likely due to a large fraction of the national income that has gone to the oil producers after the two oil shocks. The proceed was used to increase the “real earnings” of the population in the oil producing countries which does not show up in the graph.

        If the graph was referring to the global population then I don’t believe it.

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        SP, seen that graph from the Bureau of Labor Statistics before and it relates to US workers only.

      • @Gunna I’m slightly optimistic that future generations will be less materialistic and want less consumer goods in their lives. Perhaps relying more on digital services for their consumption needs. Things like Netflix or YouTube Premium services, paying for cloud based products to store their photo albums etc.. for example we no longer collect records or DVDs since we don’t really need to. How many TVs do we need? All you really need these days is a phone or laptop and Internet connection.

        Many younger generations want sustainable products and will avoid or abandon companies that don’t practice what their marketing says they will preach.

        3D printing perhaps suggests that we won’t need to buy a lot of this crap just print it if we need it.

        Apart from clothing and food, I don’t know if there are many more things that I need and don’t already have. The only thing I need and isn’t have so far is a home (that I own). That’s why I am a fan of cheap housing and expensive consumer goods. Not the other way around. Since consumer goods are optional, homes are not. But I suspect this is why housing is being kept unaffordable…

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Yeah, it has BLS on it and is obviously the US

        Here is an EPI of the same

        EPI, US Economy

        An ILO take on the same for developed economies – pointing to late 90s/early200s as the inflexion point

        Similar for Australia
        The RBA, Australia

        ABS and Australia

        Saul Eslake, ABS

      • 1971 thereabouts The USD was unhooked from Gold – the French couldn’t demand Gold for their USD. This fundamentally sent the world on a course where the US could run CAD’s forever? and print free money to pay for them. So I’m reckoning this was a confluence of a number of trends. Containerisation certainly helped to facilitate the underlying economic trends. The US, indeed all the Anglo economies, no longer had any constraints in their Current account. So they could import all the cheap goods they wantedJapan, then Taiwan then Korea then, the big Mother of it all, China. Across the world the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 bringing in as a resource all the cheap labour of Eastern Europe – particularly East Germany. So the world now had unlimited capital funded by the US CAD and, pretty much, unlimited cheap labour to go with it.
        There must be a zillion other smaller factors but as an underlying macroeconomic theme I reckon it holds.
        Check the graphs of US CAD against the productivity/wages graph.

  6. haroldusMEMBER

    Well now I feel guilty you only have 20 comments.

    Feel free to disregard all my future suggestions.

    Although, 20 isn’t that bad.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      either that or South Korean exports are about tom have a rocket up the jaxi

      ..it would seem to me thats a pretty tight correlation over a long period of time