Australia’s speculator frenzy continues to retreat, according to today’s Lending Finance data for March, released by the ABS.
As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) is falling fast, whereas Victoria (read Melbourne) is also moderating. Investor loans in the other major jurisdictions are either going sideways or in retreat:
Rolling annual growth in investor loans remains positive (but weakening) in Victoria, whereas all other major markets are in the red and are in retreat everywhere except Western Australia:
As at March 2018, investors accounted for a still staggering 53.0% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney), still 0.6% above July 2016’s low but down sharply from the record 61.7% share posted in June 2015, and clearly falling. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) investor mortgage share also retraced to 43.2% in March, way down from June 2015’s 52.3% peak. The share of investor lending was never as dominant in the other major jurisdictions, nevertheless they also continue to retreat:
Putting the two charts together for New South Wales (Sydney) produces the following:
Whereas the situation in Victoria (Melbourne) shows less of a pull-back:
Investor demand continues to retreat, driven by Sydney.
The latest bounce in first home buyer demand in Sydney and Melbourne, brought about by recent State Budget stamp duty incentives (implemented from 1 July 2017), has also helped reduce the investor mortgage share and back-filled the bubble.
