MB Radio: Australia’s hidden normal comes out

 

Ahead of the May budget Gunnamatta spoke with Leith van Onselen and David Llewellyn-Smith about the economic outlook and the unfolding Australian economic narrative.  In a wide ranging discussion Leith and David cover Australia’s reliance on commodity exports and the implication a subsiding global commodity market has for this dependence, as well as the potential impact on a nation largely dependent on transfers from the Federal Budget.  It also looks at how changes in the global financial market and the Royal Commission into the Activities of Australian banks may influence credit availability and house prices going forward, and of how ongoing political ineptitude and policy paralysis is exposing all Australians to a significant economic adjustment in the years ahead, with the epic incompetence of Australian energy management just a benchmark of type of failings which can be found across Australia’s policy horizons, and which have been papered over by running a ‘Population Ponzi’ to maintain an apparent normality to headline economic data.

 

Grab a glass of wine, or a cup of tea and have a listen.  The implications of what is discussed here should be thought about by all Australians.

 

The discussion goes runs about 95 Minutes and comes in 5 (yes five) parts

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4 

Part 5

Comments

  1. yay thanks for giving me something to do this saturday night gunnamatta

    also i genuinely love your voice have you looked into doing audio book readings or voice acting

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I have done corporate stuff (voicing presentations in English for Russian banks, TV stations, universities, and three memorable scientific exercises – of burial middens in the Volga valley, of perma frost melt in the Siberian lava traps, and of the earliest inhabitants of what is now Russia’s Altai region). There isnt really much money doing such stuff in Australia and in order to pay the mortgage and keep the kids in toys and easter eggs I do a fairly mundane gig here [though I continue to edit out of Russia and the UK in the eves].

      Love your work too – I hope the night is warmer in Dubbo than Geetroit

    • You make me sad, stagmal.

      Time is the most precious commodity one can have and perhaps one of the most equitably distributed.

  2. Jerry Lundegaard is Gunna? HnH and UE are Carl Showalter and Gaear Grimsrud and somebody is going into a woodchipper?

    Another good job. Thanks.

  3. CharlieChaplin

    Well done guys. Can only hope you are right about the immigration stuff. It seems although a few chickens are finally coming home to roost for Australia.

    • Oh poor didims. Their holiday houses are falling down.
      The epitome of everything wrong about ‘straya.
      Huge funds pissed away on sports ‘tards and the AIS that ultimately pumps up RE, to the detriment of wages in price competitive industries.

    • That’s what all those tears were really about, not what they had done, but how in the heck are we gonna pay all those bills to fund our lifestyles?

      • True, and sports people are notorious for making dumb financial decisions because they never think of the time when they won’t be earning 7+ figures.

  4. Good discussion fellas, but I really think you need to do something about getting these out a bit, and maybe do them more often

    • I agree, fantastic to listen to the three of you in one podcast. Obviously you’re only able to get these out when time permits.

      Definitely worth a few listens to this as there’s so much info packed in.

  5. Whilst I think the housing bust will be quicker and worse than anyone is predicting, the interest only cliff at the moment is not a big event for another 2 years. For mortgages 5 years ago they have huge equity gains to play with and if they were on fixed rates then interest rates are much lower. For variable the rise is 31%, not 35 to 50 based on 30 year loan and the difference in interest from io to p and i.

    • The straw breaking the camel back will be external, not local. There is a vacuum of will and fairness in this land of rent seekers.

    • Let’s be scientific. Can someone correlate the rolling stock of IO loans to be refinanced with matched YOY price change. The catalyst will be will be one of two things.

      When will IO’s due to roll over be below CURRENT equity requirements? Maybe now?

  6. “My financial adviser told me: ‘If you have to work after cricket, I haven’t done my job properly’.”
    And now we know who the leadership group is.
    Edit: reply to Andrew above.

  7. Thank you for all the work. This was brilliant,and will be played to my recalcitrant spouse.