Bernard Salt: Melbourne’s growing too fast. Cut immigration

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By Leith van Onselen

You know Australia’s immigration intake is way too high, and that the community mood has turned, when even Bernard Salt – the self proclaimed unabashed supporter of a bigger Australia” – believes Melbourne is growing too fast and argues that immigration needs to be moderated. From Nine News (here and here):

Melbourne’s population could be growing too fast – and that the amount of people moving to the city may need to be moderated, a leading demographer has warned…

Melbourne is currently growing by 126,000 people a year…

“Out rate of growth has increased ten-fold over the course of a single generation,” The Demographics Group Managing Director, Bernard Salt, told 9NEWS.

“It’s a bit like a car travelling too fast. You get the speed, things start to shake.”

The current spike compared to 25 years ago is staggering, Mr Salt explained. In 1993, early in the Jeff Kennett era, the city’s population grew by just 12,000 people…

Currently Melbourne’s population stands at 4.7 million, and is expected to hit five million by 2021.

By 2050, that figure is forecast to soar to eight million…

On current trends, Melbourne will become the nation’s most populous city sometime in the 2030s, well ahead of previous estimates.

With the predicted population explosion, Plan Melbourne- the state government’s blueprint to 2050- predicts the city will need to:

* Build another 1.6 million homes

* Create 1.5 million extra jobs

* Cater for 10 million more trips a day on public transport; an 80 percent increase…

“Unless you actually deliver the infrastructure, unless you create the city to a blueprint if you like… the city then grinds to a halt,” Mr Salt said…

Mr Salt added a ‘big picture plan’ is vital, with now the time to evaluate limiting the flow of people moving to the city.

“There are times when a city grows too fast and I think we’re in that time at the moment,” he said.

“But that does not mean shutting the gate… it might mean closing it a bit.”

When even the strongest of ‘Big Australia’ proponents starts having second thoughts, you know there’s a problem.

unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.