Trump to join TPP 2.0?

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian reports today that US farmers and the Republican Party are unhappy with President Donald Trump’s hostile view of free trade, and many Republican senators want him to reconsider his approach to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is expected to discuss the possibility of the US joining the TPP when the two leaders meet:

Mr Turnbull will advance free trade as critical to the ongoing prosperity and peace in the Asia-Pacific region.

He is expected to discuss the TPP and the potential for the US to join the newly branded Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Mr Trump has come under growing pressure from the farm lobby and Republicans over his hostility to free trade, with nearly half of Republican senators calling on the President to re-engage with the TPP. There will also be discussions between the Australian government and US state governors to advance trade at a state-by-state level.

Regular readers will know that MB has reservations about the newly signed Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – dubbed by MB as TPP 2.0 – and has called for the Productivity Commission (PC) to examine the treaty for its economy-wide impacts before it is ratified by parliament.

That said, the huge advantage of TPP 2.0 over the original is that it does appear to have watered down some of the more pernicious clauses around intellectual property and investor-state dispute settlement, which were included in the original text at the US’ behest.

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Hopefully, the other TPP nations won’t agree to add back these clauses in exchange for the US’ participation.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.