Links 12 February 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:






    • About time. Recall looking into thier Elzac process years ago and figuring it was suspect as. About time the regulatory coma ended.

      • Elezac, I actually put together a file on that,
        lucky I got out before i lost too much money.
        and people trust morgan to provide numbers, ??????????
        if the shareholder base wasn’t so narrow there would be a very interesting class action there.

  1. Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

    So that Guardian Soros article, it doesn’t actually disprove the allegations at all….

    Maybe he should be pissed at Soros for fitting the stereotype so perfectly?

  2. Australia faces a ‘postdocalypse’ as young scientists take their brains and talent overseas

    We are the most educated people in the country and we can barely provide for our families and have at most 3-4 years’ job stability. This is extremely stressful.

    Thanks to the Greens’ love of the real estate bubble and mass low-wage immigration. PhDs are imported to work here for $2000/month. Brilliant! What could possibly go right.

    That reference to South Korea is amusing – what is the immigration rate into South Korea? So the solution is to not have a manic immigration rate? Cognitive dissonance from the ABC.

    • We are the most educated people in the country and we can barely provide for our families and have at most 3-4 years’ job stability. This is extremely stressful.

      Yeah no shyza, when you have a mega mortgage, kids, and have to do a hard job like that with all the added pressures, but 3-4 years job stability is good compared to most!

    • Going on your logic I should give my dog a decent kicking cause he’s also not doing anything about Australia’s immigration policies. Yeah because directing your displeasure at those who actually determine Australia’s immigration policies, as in the current coalition government, would be too obvious. PS my dog’s name is Rex if you want to include him in your future sprays.

      • I never voted for the federal “Liberal” party and therefore have no expectations from them.

        I always used to vote for the Greens and they finally got to be in power from 2010 to 2013 but did nothing for the poor with that power!

        Theresa May did more for poor voters by kicking out foreign “students” after they complete their degree. Heck, Tandoori restaurants in England are closing because if they want to bring in a foreign cook, she requires the cook to be paid £29k/year or more. Good riddance!

        The unemployment rate in Britain is the lowest it has been in 42 years!

        Why did the Greens not abolish the rural growth boundary before 2013? Why did they not have jail for wage theft?

      • Why did the Greens not abolish the rural growth boundary before 2013? Why did they not have jail for wage theft?

        Because over here in Reality, they’ve never had any meaningful political influence.

    • Not much to that article! Supported by barely any statistical data (number of grads per discipline, employment rates. emigration/exit numbers (alleged brain drain).

      So a group of students gets an increasingly specialised education in increasingly random and esoteric areas. Then complain because they can’t get a job? On the positive, good to see some of the take the initiative and relocate – career enhancing and life changing.

      And still you have “educators” banging on about the need for kids to study STEM.

      • Right. What is the point of studying STEM when Atlassian brings in 457 visa staff from Vietnam.

        And there is no rocket industry here (SpaceX is not allowed to hire foreigners, so if an American is brilliant at programming rockets, he can get a job at SpaceX or Blue Origin or NASA).

  3. Sweden is where the theory of intersectional feminism meets actual reality. The price, paid primarily by young white girls and jews, is the loss of an entire country.
    So when the sexual assaults happen in Cologne and Rotherham the victims are white and female, the perpetrators are brown male and Islamic but higher on the scale of victimhood. Hence one finds, not uncommonly, white female activists, not wishing to have their rapists deported even when those are the people who have been raped…. They have checked their privileges…total lunacy.
    Two short divergent views on the subject. This is the price for having a “feminist” government of total idiots

  4. Anouncement: To all those who have relatives or friends in business in Surfers Paradise.
    Please note; it has died. Dead. It is not resting. It is not in a coma.
    Life support was finally turned off 6 Feb 2018 when the commo bank of China was forced to bail out its own banks with a $406 odd billion loan to prop up the “Year of the DOG” celebrations.
    Note that handout is a loan, and this is the issue. How will that additional debt be repaid?

    Following up on the report that the Strayan banks, as receivers, were selling the shops at street level of the Soul tower in Sufferers Paradise , and reports that the annual rental from the remaining shops open was 7 mill whereas when I was there 3 weeks ago, many of the shops had closed.
    Boarded up, dilapidated and graffiti-ed. Hobos pissing in the shop fronts, just like Melbourne.
    So I went to have a look to see who was paying all this rent.
    Wow, 3 weeks ago some shops were still open and on the drive up I noticed the building sites previously mothballed were now active.
    Now, most of the shops are shut, cept for the shops actually on the esplanade, and on a couple of building sites where I spoke to the workers, all are asking what is going on with the money from China. So the place is buzzing orright; but, the questions are, will they be paid. When?
    Now, very many of the shops in that Surfers Plaza were leased by Chinese, including the very many massage joints.
    Once, that Surfers Plaza was a hive of activity, now it looks like a dump and smells of urine.
    Some shops, Louis Vitton, etc moved to Pacific Fair at Broadbeach, but it looks as though most were small operations which have now taken a massive haircut.
    Thus it’s not surprising the bankers are the receivers.
    That Spirit building ,if its ever built, will be like a massive bee hive in the middle of a dump, how’s that for planning.
    Highrise Harry has a large undeveloped site on the esplanade maybe 150m to the north.
    This shake out in RE could cost him his crown.
    I think RE will come back by 50% plus so you can do the numbers on HH. Wipeout.

    RE tragics up here are now pointing Percy at the Pacific with an onshore breeze.
    Legend investor, Mr Buffett has the saying “when the tide goes out we will see who was swimming naked” Well to save you all looking, the girls up here with the latest next to nothing bikinis have near to nothing on anyhow. Tide in or out.
    And you rarely see them in the water.
    And er, its not as if you have seen 1 you have seen em all. And they know it.
    But the male swimming emperors with no clothes are now being shown to be the Chinese, the Comm games organising committee, and investor speculators, many from outside the region who were mesmerised by the sun and the waves when the tide was on the rise.

    How about this, by the end of the 2nd week of February 18, the GC economy has taken these cash hits as the tide turns. Now this is back of the envelope stuff but the numbers are so large that a few or many, percent either way makes no difference.
    Over Xmas the national spend on credit cards was $30 billion.(disposable income repaid from wages)
    GC is the 6 largest city in Straya so say the local credit card spend was 1/6 of 30 or 5 bill
    Then last week we lost 120 odd bill from the stock market, say again by 1/6 so that is 20bill
    And say since xmas the housing market is down 1%, that is 1% of 1/6 of 1.4 trill, or 23 bill.
    And 1400 million saved in welfare fraud crackdown, by 1/6, say 200 million, not available to spend.
    So round figures the GC has lost 5 + 20 + 23 bill from the local economy
    Ie. $48 thousand million>>>>gone.
    As young Stan or Kyle from South Park learnt. >>>IT’S Gone! A HUGE number. Gone!

    But worse, the punters have finally noticed these hits to their back pocket as well: fuel at $1.45 litre for the house sized SUV, electricity just going up and up, a feed of fish and chips is now $20.
    (tiger prawns the size of your middle finger are $1.each. Fish and chip shops need an armed guard just to watch over the prawns. >>A dollar each!!! ( just swimming around in the ocean waiting to be caught by the net full?? Thousands every time you pull the net?)
    [that prawn importing thingy which wiped out our prawn farms is a full blown scandal]
    Plus the cost to send the kids back to school.
    Plus all the other incremental costs wage earners have to cop,including the IO >> to >>P&I.
    Plus over the next 10 weeks those temporary workers for the comm games are on the footpath
    I think the final no affected is 6000 direct, say 18,000 affected.
    Say 4000 homes could go on the market just from them.

    So the party is over, contrary to what the Comm games mob would invite you to.
    Next question.>What do we do now??
    The reason I write this stuff is to try and find an answer, but generally for the community I cant work it out.
    The party was so huge, the hang over could take more that a human lifetime to recover from.

    The future is technical services Elon Musk types, how do we get there?
    All this housing investment will end up like Surfers Plaza.
    Its worth a visit, just to see the outcome. Take your kids.

    PS “The most obvious candidate for another global crisis is China.” The financial crisis in China will take down Australia. When China’s economy fails, the Strayan economy will follow.
    “If China was a free market economy, it already would have had a financial crisis, given the build-up of non-performing debt owed to the banks.
    “It’s unsustainable in terms of the total $ volume and its trajectory” “Year of the DOG” WW

    • Thanks for the words from the coal face WW. Those Chinese loans are written off 30% of the time depending on the identity of the recipient.

    • It’s getting on for a lot of years that people have been predicting a collapse in China. It’s getting on for a lot of decades people have been predicting a collapse in Japan. I’m not saying it can’t happen but the continuous prediction of collapse results form a basic error in understanding by modern macro theory. Mostly the predictions come from US Economists!!! You know the place that is so fundamentally sound only because they can print money ‘ad nauseum’ with no seeming effect – until the whole house of cards collapses.
      I suspect our crash is just as likely to come from the collapse of the modern economic mantra coming out of the US as it is to come from China. However it is obvious Chinese money has been a big source of funds for the RE industry. It seems the government is not too keen on funding offshore RE speculation – big or small. That will sure cause a dent.

      • I dont believe too much of what i read, but when I see it, chinese being wiped out in surfers, particularly,
        Hard to refute
        Especially as to what do we do now.
        all this wealth is a result of 1 time speculation. 1 trick ponies,
        the avenues to regain the wealth for most are non existent.
        Read on to Day 1

    • I don’t get the multi-million dollar apartments in Broadbeach across the road from apartments (air-conditioned 1-bedder + parking + pool) selling for $200k-$250k. There must be a lot of rich people with money to lose.

  5. Hot off the press: Do you have the “aptitude and commitment” to fend off the ROBOTS. ) ( WW Short answer NO)
    McKinsey research suggesting that at least 30% of tasks carried out by 60% of occupations could already be automated, he says that companies, governments and many OECD societies are not preparing fast enough for the changes to come
    In Australia, this could affect(job loss) 3.2 million workers,.
    “The work we have done looking at various OECD countries – Canada, Australia Germany – we think that somewhere between 8 to 15 per cent of the jobs that are currently held will be gone in the next ten years,” Mr Barton said.

    • Even hotter off the press (WW Strayans still think they are in paradise for the working man)
      Amazon’s grandiose ambitions, its unique corporate culture and its most radical business experiments were all on display at the company’s biggest building in Seattle, Day One tower,
      Is named after Bezos’ mantra designed to prevent his company and staff from falling victim to complacency.
      Every day is Day One at Amazon (and this is emblazoned on walls throughout the building), because, as Bezos wrote in his first letter to shareholders:
      “Day 2 is stasis.
      Followed by irrelevance.
      Followed by excruciating, painful decline.
      Followed by death.”

    • Ok – I do have a teensy-weensy question for you WW: What happens at saturation?

      I know, I know it’s the same question I ask all the time: All good and great whilst you can keep changing the system because saturation point is still a way off, but… what do you think happens when saturation point is reached?

      So… what happens at saturation point: when a good slab of the population is dislocated… Are you going to have gatling-guns droping out of the ceiling to defend against shoplifters?! What then? Bullsh*t jobs? Aren’t we already at saturation point with those? what, then?

      • Luckily the Greens have UBI in their manifesto. Oh wait…they would rather wear “shut Nauru” t-shirts.

    • we are at saturation
      the traditional manner now is to prune the flock for the better outcome of the remainder
      Some say that gene technology is now so advanced that unwanted genes can be targeted for the development of vaccine.
      this bird flu may have been a trial run.
      How it travelled from south america into africa and the pacific is still unkown
      As bezos states
      “Day 2 is stasis.
      Followed by irrelevance.
      Followed by excruciating, painful decline.
      Followed by death.”

    • THe chinese did extensive work to establish if they were from Peking man or Homo Sapien
      for, to ascertain if there were significant genetic differences which may be considered for the development of vaccines more suitable to chinese. and vice versa.
      However it looks like the genetic research has established that the chinese are in fact a branchof Home Sapien, but there are still many benchmark discrepancies in the gene sequences
      the research and its developments are on going globally on the qt.

  6. NEW ZEALAND: A ‘stocktake’ of the housing market commissioned by the Govt paints a ‘sobering impact of the housing crisis, particularly on children’, says Housing Minister Phil Twyford |

    New Zealand faces a “deeper and more entrenched” housing crisis than had previously been revealed, according to a stocktake of the country’s housing sector commissioned by Housing and Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford. … read more via hyperlink above …

    abolition auckland urban limits – Google Search

    Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey | Scoop News

    Listen to Hugh Pavletich with Mark Sainsbury on Radio NZ this morning.

      • Housing Minister Phil Twyford has hit back at claims his Government is not ambitious enough with its KiwiBuild policy and says expect ‘far more’ than 100,000 new houses over the next decade |

        Housing Minister Phil Twyford says he is expecting the Government to build “far more” than the planned 100,000 KiwiBuild houses over the next 10 years.

        Speaking to reporters after the release of a new housing stocktake report on Monday morning, Twyford was forced to defend the Government’s “lack of ambition” on its state house building policy.

        The call came from one of the stocktake report’s co-authors, Shamubeel Eaqub, who reiterated his thoughts that the Government should be targeting 500,000 new KiwiBuild homes. … read more via hyperlink above …

        Housing Minister Phil Twyford promises 12-15 ‘Hobsonville’-size housing developments – NZ Herald

        Housing Minister Phil Twyford says there will be 12-15 housing developments the same size as Hobsonville underway simultaneously once KiwiBuild gets running. … read more via hyperlink above …

      • There is a danger in over-examining issues such as the housing market, rather than just rolling up sleeves and taking action … David Hargreaves … Interest Co NZ

        By David Hargreaves

        In reading the housing stocktake commissioned by the new Government I was reminded again and again of a very funny skit from an ages-old, largely forgotten, TV programme called The Frost Report. …

        … concluding …

        … But with or without reports being compiled and more and more information gathered, I think we could all agree that building more houses is good, having a check on immigration is good, trying to do something to make it more affordable to build houses is good, and doing something to improve the lot of renters is good.

        The big danger is that simply gathering loads of information like this is just a substitute for the Great New Zealand Form A Committee strategy. Talking is easier than doing. There’s no doubt about that.

        Twyford’s been talking big for a few years now. Well, this is his chance.

        Solutions please. No more reports. Get on with it.
        The landmines in Ardern’s next 1000 days … Bernard Hickey … Newsroom

        … extract …

        … The biggest risk for the Government over the next 1000 days is a failure to deliver on its core promise — Kiwibuild. Ramping up a programme to build 100,000 houses in a decade will always take time, but the Government’s commitment to built 16,000 in the first three years is very specific. The first Kiwibuild home has been promised for mid-2018.

        Voters will want to see houses being built pronto and won’t have much tolerance for excuses, of which there are smorgasbord to choose from, ranging from construction sector capacity, Council borrowing capacity, ratings agency nit-picking, RMA-wielding NIMBYs and nervous bankers. Any signs of bickering between the Government and the Auckland Council in particular, or foot-dragging by either, would disappoint voters hoping for solutions. Any delays in forming the Housing Commission and getting MBIE’s interim Kiwibuild unit up and running will be leapt on by the Opposition and the media alike.

        The key players are Housing and Transport Minister Phil Twyford and Auckland Mayor Phil Goff. They need to coordinate their respective governments to plan, fund and deliver the joint and massive investment projects needed to build at least 50,000 Kiwibuild houses in Auckland over the next decade, as well as the rail and other infrastructure needed for those houses. The Government and the Auckland Council must somehow come up with the tools to fund new urban development projects. That will require the cooperation and enthusiasm of both private bond investors and the ratings agencies, who can be wary of the special purpose vehicles that Twyford and Goff hope to use to keep the debt off both their balance sheets. … read more via hyperlink above …